Sheehan's Radical Offseason Ideas
by aap212 on Nov 3, 2008 1:32 PM EST
33 comments
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/10/31/sheehan.trades/index.html?eref=T1
Most of these aren't that interesting to me, but the idea of a Liriano-to-Texas trade is. What do you guys think of the one he suggests? He says Liriano to Texas for Salty, Andrus, Blalock, and Poveda. Now at this point, I figure the Rangers just want to get rid of Blalock, which helps the trade. But the Twins don't seem like the best fit to pony up for Salty, and trading Andrus seems like a strange move, although Young is still locked in through perpetuity. I do think Liriano would be a good fit for the Rangers.
0 recs |
33 comments
Email
Print
Comments
I think there is no way texas gives up quite that much
I could see Salty, Blalock and one other prospect, but i dont see them going 4-1 for a guy who still hasnt fully come all the way back from surgery yet….
I also feel like the twins envision Liriano as there new Johan…. the other good arms they have are really mid rotation guys (baker, slowey) these are solid pitchers (i love em), but they arent top of the rotation guys.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Nov 3, 2008 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why would Minnesota do that
Did Joe Mauer retire? Did Morneau retire? Where would Salty play? Blalock is only signed for one more year so I don’t see that fitting in the Twins business model. Poveda is a nice arm and I am not well versed on the Twins farm and 40 man situation but Poveda has to be added this winter and hasn’t hit AA yet. Theres practically no way he sees the bigs next year and probably not until mid way through 2010 when he will only have 1.5 options left. Again that doesn’t sound like the Twins normal practices. Andrus is the only legit guy I can see the Twins wanting in this deal.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 3, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Andrus...
I like all your other points (although I think the idea is that Mauer moves to 1B and Morneau to DH). I do see Andrus as being the only legit guy in the deal as well, but his value is tied up in the fact that he is a lead-off hitter. The Twins now have Gomez, Span, and Revere in their system who all profile as lead-off types. If one of them, or Andrus, have to start hitting 2nd or 9th, I think they lose much of their value. So I don’t think even Andrus is all that attractive to the Twins.
And Salty and Blalock… very unattractive. Blalock seems pretty done to me. And Salty hasn’t proven he can hit in the majors.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Nov 3, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It could be that Mauer moves to 3B...
I’ve heard talk of doing that to save his knees.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 3, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not from the twins
their GMs over the years have outright laughed at the idea…..terry ryan went as far as to say that mauer will not be moved from catcher until he’s needing assistance to get up out of his crouch….
this has been a rumor for ages from fans who can’t imagine his body style (and his early knee injuries) will hold up behind the plate….it has very little legitimacy at this point….it is one option where he could go if the day ever arises that he needs to move…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Andrus
His value is not him being a leadoff hitter. His value is that he is a barely 20 year old who will start next year in AAA with ML caliber defense right now, great range, good speed, and although he may never be a Miguel tejada or Arod SS offensively he looks to develop nice gap power. he could bat 9th and still have tremendous value simply because of his defense at such an important defensive position.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 3, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blalock isn't done
He was hurt, but he went .387/.695 with 8 homers in September. before that he was hurt. Sure, he is always hurt, but I don’t think he is toast yet at 27.
by wobatus on Nov 3, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that trade
makes no sense. as bigsteve mentioned, how would Salty have any value for the Twins. If Blalock gets dealt this offseason, it will be to a team needing a 1B. And I really don’t see the Rangers dealing Andrus, as Daniels seems to have seen the light regarding infield defense. I would love to acquire Liriano, but that is a lot of talent to give up for a pitcher who (and I could be wrong/outdated) has lost something after his surgery.
now the fifth point in Sheehan’s story, about cheap relievers, actually has some salience. I would love to see the Rangers take a chance on some of those guys.
by clark on Nov 3, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the idea is that Salty has value because he's a bat
And the Twins need offense.
by aap212 on Nov 3, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats fine
But where are you going to get that bat into the lineup? Catcher? 1B? DH? A combo of all three. Salty has stated before that he doesn’t do well when he is hopscotching(sp?) positions. We saw that in 2007 after acquiring him when he was flipping between catcher and 1B.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 3, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would think the large, membranous wings would interfere with his hitting ability
Come to think of it, maybe that’s why he’s basically only had one good season ever.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Read the original post again.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the twins need left infield offense....
3b, ss…..and the shortstop better defend as well…..otherwise, they have a very nice offense built around speed and gap hitting…..that they don’t hit the ball over the fence doesn’t mean that they’re a bad offensive team….in fact, the twins led the league in BA with RISP….that tells me that not only do they hit, but they hit well when they need to get a run home as well….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It tells me that they were lucky, since RISP hitting is pure luck.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"pure" luck
sure thing, sparkey…..that’s why the same players show up on that list of top BA with RISP every year, right?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They don't.
Well, except insofar as some players have high BA overall, which is obviously a skill.
The differential between BA and BA with RISP, which is what is actually relevant here, shows no correlation whatsoever from year to year.
Thanks for playing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you may need
to check your statistics….certain guys just have a knack for hitting in those situations….check out placido polanco, for instance….
this gets into the whole “clutch” debate, and while i don’t believe in clutch, i do believe that some guys have less variation in their performance in stressful situations, and those players tend to balance out with much better stats with runners on….nothing statistically provable, but something very easy to spot with the naked eye as you watch the game….and then check statistics to notice that particular guy has traditionally performed well in high stress….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 5, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, no
Just because something is difficult to quantify doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. You’re right that announcers overestimate the impact of clutch hitting, and overemphasize particular ABs where a player did well or not well, but that doesn’t mean it’s strictly random. Bill James, incidentally, who was one of the first to argue that clutch hitting was a myth, later changed his mind to what I’m saying, that it’s very difficult to measure and may not exist, but there was no logical way to tell. It is the baseball equivalent of scientifically proving or disproving God’s existence.
That being said, considering we’re dealing with human beings who hit and pitch, psychology plays a role as well. It’s undoubtable that pressure affects baseball players like it affects all people. How it affects them, and if in the long run the effects cancel out (i.e. sometimes players rise to the challenge and othertimes they flop), is a very debatable question, but it is undoubtable that “clutch” situations affect players and can’t simply be disregarded as pure luck. As a practical matter, though, it can probably be bracketed off and ignored.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 5, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Rangers are trading for pitching, I much prefer my idea
of trading six low-A/short season pitchers for Matt Cain.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Explain to me how that makes sense for the giants?
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 3, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Replace the old ace with, one hopes, a new ace
during years when the team actually has a prayer of being competitive.
The Giants are good at pitcher development, so maybe they even get 2 good pitchers out of it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the NL west
Anyone is a year away from taking it.
by aap212 on Nov 3, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone except the Giants...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't mean they should pour all their chips into taking it.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 3, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except Cain isn't old
they have money to resign him and they have plenty of pitching prospects. The giants are in need of Bats up the middle bats corner OF bats and and really any where but C and 1b. Trading your surplus for more surplus is stupid.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 3, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants do not have a surplus of pitching
They have a fair amount of high quality pitching but they are really lacking for middle-rotation types right now.
In any event, it wouldn’t matter that much if they replaced some of the pitchers with position players… the basic structure of the trade is the same.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other moves
Lowe to Cincy makes too much sense to actually happen. Same with the Matthews/Pierre comment; neither LA team is really hurting for money if they just view ’em both as sunk costs and jettison them.
But Roberts to SS? Will he still be a good enough defender there?
"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)
by drjayphd on Nov 3, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The fact that #5 is considered a "radical" move is a sad reflection on the state of baseball strategy.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 3, 2008 8:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Unless
Your chosen team’s following the principle in #5.
"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)
by drjayphd on Nov 3, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, of course.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
by Blicks on Nov 4, 2008 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would make no sense.
The team that I think makes the most sense for the Rangers is the Red Sox. The Red Sox need catching, and the Rangers need pitching. The Rangers have a surplus of catching, and the Sox have a surplus of good young pitching. I could see something where Ramirez, Laird, or Salty is packaged with Andrews and somebody like Main for a Buchholz, Masterson, or Bowden type plus a couple of prospects.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Nov 4, 2008 11:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
