My Mariners Top 20 for 2009
by Grudyfan on Nov 3, 2008 2:47 AM EST
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PrintThe parent team was mired in a year-long suckfest, and even though some top prospects graduated (Clement, Balentien, Rowland-Smith, LaHair), this list wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would've been.
1. Carlos Triunfel, SS (B+) - Didn't set the world on fire in the Cal-league, but an 18-year old holding his own in High-A still makes him the organization's top prospect.
2. Greg Halman, OF (B) - Busted out on the prospect scene with an impressive showing of power and speed, lacks plate discipline.
3. Philippe Aumont, P (B) - Big (6'7") first-rounder flashes fastball that hits the upper 90s with a heavy sinker.
4. Michael Pineda, P (B) - Led Seattle minor league pitchers in ERA and Ks as a 19-year old in A-ball.
5. Adam Moore, C (B-) - Questionable defensive abilities, but shows good all-around offensive game for a catcher, making AA all-star team.
6. Juan Ramirez, P (B-) - Shows good stuff and decent numbers for a pitcher that just turned 20.
7. Joshua Fields*, P (B-) - If he signs (he has until the beginning of the next draft to do so), his nasty fastball/curveball combo will make him one of the best relief pitchers in the minors.
8. Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B (B-) - Posted over a .900 OPS as an 18-year old across Rookie and Short season leagues.
9. Michael Saunders, OF (C+) - Some might find this ranking too low, but Saunders shows a good all-around game. Good with the glove with developing power, Saunders shows no glaring weaknesses or any exceptional strength.
10. Luis Valbuena, 2B/SS (C+) - As a 22-year old promoted to AAA, he showed an ability to hit for average (.302), good plate discipline (28:32 BB:K ratio) and some speed (10 SB).
11. Carlos Peguero, 1B/OF (C+) - Doesn't really have a defensive home and his plate discipline is terrible, but he does have a good bat with decent power. We'll see how he'll fare outside the Cal-league environs.
12. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B (C+) - Finally started showing some power in AAA and earned a call-up the big leagues. Still young at 22.
13. Michael Wilson, OF (C+) - Though he repeated the league, he was much better at drawing walks, upping his average (.277) and flashing impressive power (27 HR).
14. Mario Martinez, 3B (C+) - 18-year old impressed in rookie league, hitting .307/.344/.462.
15. Nick Hill, P (C+) - Survived (barely) his tenure in the Cal-league with decent numbers, may be destined for the bullpen.
16. Dennis Raben, OF (C+) - Fringe average defender showed a good bat in his first taste of short-season ball.
17. Justin Thomas, P (C+) - Could be useful as a back-end starter/swingman for Seattle next year.
18. Nathan Adcock, P (C+) - 6'5 20-year old struck out 82 in 77.1 IP with a 3.72 ERA in A-ball.
19. Johan Limonta, 1B (C+) - Somewhat old (24 at the start of the year) for AA, Limonta showed his early-season peformance in the Cal-league was no fluke by posting an .868 OPS for West Tenn.
20. Shawn Kelley, P (C) - Relief pitcher pitched in 3 levels in 2008 with a combined ERA of 1.88 and 68 ks in 62.1 IP.
Others: Danny Carroll, Travis Chick, Edilio Colina, Joe Dunigan, Donald Hume, Kenn Kasparek, Brett Lorin, Matt Mangini, Gabriel Noriega, Edward Paredes.
While I am (unfortunately) a big Seattle fan, there are some prospects here that I know little from their statistical profile, and I don't pretend to know everything about these aforementioned prospects. If I've left someone off, ranked someone too high/low, let me hear it.
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Do you really have Field ranked ahead of Saunders?
What are you basing that on? I honestly don’t think Fields gets signed, but even still, that seems kind of crazy given that Fields hasn’t pitched one inning of professional baseball.
I do like the realism when it comes to Raben though; I have high hopes, but he screams AAAA player to me. He could be a useful piece for sure, but I’m not holding my breath.
J.K.L.
Well it isn't as if
you need pro stats to base a ranking on.
You still know exactly what Fields brings to the table… electric arm, two great pitches, athleticism, small frame, K-Rod-esque effort in the delivery, shaky command.
The idea you need pro stats to rank a guy you know well is kinda silly.
That being said, Saunders is a joy to watch play ball and I would have him ranked far higher. I don’t really see how C+ is realistic at all.
While RPs typically don't get high grades
Fields was arguably the best college closer in the draft – his fastball hits the upper 90s and his curveball has already been deemed a 70 or 80 on the 80-point scale, so he should be able to fast track his way the majors. I usually like to top out relief pitcher prospects at a B- (John gave Atlanta’s Kimbrel a B, but he did freaking dominate every stop he went), and that grade would apply only if I perceived that relief pitcher as a potential closer at the major league level, which I think Fields does.
Still makes no sense for the Mariners to actually sign him...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Makes no sense?
Having one of the best relief pitching prospects signed when his demands aren’t outrageous and when your team’s closer essentially had a lost year? Putz was the game’s best closer over the past two years and this year showed some chinks in the armor – are you suggesting it would be more valuable for the Ms to get the compensation pick in 09 by not signing Fields? Is there someone in mind you’d be targeting in that draft?
Absolutely that's what I'm suggesting
Just about anybody is more useful to a rebuilding club than a highly polished relief pitcher. Fields has extremely limited potential payoff, even though he is relatively low risk.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Exactly...
Why not draft a guy who’s floor is RP in a few years instead with the compensation pick if you are truly going to rebuild?
Or even take a flier on a signability guy, at that point?
Not a good idea to draft a signability player with a compensation pick, unless you're feeling mighty frisky
but there are plenty of good prospects available for slot money at #21.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Also, I think Valbuena has to be ranked a bit higher after his audition.
He wasn’t a world beater in any sense, but he has a decent bat and showed a ton of promise in the field. He looks to be a lock to top out as someone that ends up on most 25 man rosters.
J.K.L.
Yeah, I like him, I just question his upside. To me he seems like he could be a good utility player, and with Jose Lopez and YuBet in their middle infield already, it seems he might be destined for that role for the next couple of years.
He SHOULD be replacing at least one of them...
Those guys are known quantities at this point, and the known quantities are horrible.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Horrible?
Lopez was an all-star two years ago and just had his best offensive season this past year, showing improved power with 17 HR and a .297/.322/.443 line with good defense. He’s one of the top 5 at his position in the AL and at 24 years of age, I doubt he’s peaked in terms of offensive production. As for YuBet, he has incredible range as a fielder, and while he’s nothing special as a hitter, Valbuena offers an upgrade only in plate discipline. If YuBet and Valbuena split time at SS, I’m guessing their offensive performances would look pretty similar. Like I said before, I like Valbuena and at 22 he has room for growth, but right now he wouldn’t be an upgrade as a starter at either middle infield position.
Betancourt...
HAD incredible range as a fielder. Over the past couple of years he has gotten fat, and drastically worse in the field. He’s no longer a plus defender, and with an anemic bat, he’s a hole at SS for the Mariners.
Unfortunately for the team, his initial reputation as a plus defender has stuck. Hopefully Zduriencik, with his super-scout status, will see through that and deal Yuni to some unsuspecting team while he still has some perceived value.
+1
Dewey’s +/- system is pretty much the best defensive evaluation out there, using ball-in-play data from BIS. He rated Yuni as the worst defensive SS in the AL at -19 runs compared to an average shortstop.
Lopez
is still just 24.
You think of him as a known quantity because he has some much MLB time already but lots of guys at his same stage of development are just now entering MLB… and you wouldn’t say they are known quantities at all.
by nms on Nov 3, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
wow
I didn’t realize how good Lopez’s line last year was.
That makes PaulThomas’ comment even more WTF
by nms on Nov 3, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
70% of his hitting increase was just a random spike in batting average
He did up his power level a little bit but there’s no reason to believe that the increase in average was anything but normal variation.
The guy has a career OPS+ of 86. That’s fucking terrible. Yes, he is only 24— but 5 years worth of at-bats in MLB tells us a lot more than 5 years in the minors.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I wouldn't really call it a spike though
He hit .297 in 2008, he hit .282 in his all-star season of 06 and was a career .288 hitter in the minors. 2007 was a bad year as he battled injuries and having no definitive place in the batting order (historically he’s at his best as the 2-hitter, but was batting all over the place that year). I’d certainly like to hold onto Lopez if I were Seattle’s GM, as there aren’t many other better options at second base available.
His 5 years of MLB at-bats should signify that he’s been collecting data since he was 19, and I think his past season shows legitimate improvement. Is a 86 OPS+ really that bad considering the lack of impact second basemen and his age?
His career average is .270. It's a spike.
There is, seriously, no improvement there. His secondary average has been about .150, plus or minus 20 points, every season of his career. Batting average wise, a bit of it’s due to decreased strikeouts, most of it’s due to a jump in BABIP. Some of that jump is because he hit at the high end of his line drive range last year instead of at the low end. Some of it can’t even be explained that way.
There is, as they say, no there there. If I’m the GM, I’m foisting him off on some fool who doesn’t realize this season was a fluke, and hopefully doing the same for Betancourt. Then promote Valbuena and sign some kind of stopgap solution at SS like Cesar Izturis until Grant Green and Carlos Triunfel are MLB ready.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Throw out his 2007 and his career line is a lot better.
It’s more like .290/.320/.420. Given his age, the fact he plays at Safeco, and the death of his brother in June of 2007 I think it would be wise for the M’s to keep him for at least another season.
Why should I throw out his 2007?
Why not throw out his 2008? I know which one looks more like a fluke in context.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Because he was hitting well
until his brother died. I’m not saying you should throw it out completely, but he was hitting well before the accident.
While I admit YuBet is an offensive liability and should be the one traded if one has to be made, I still think it’s too early to tell if the 06/08 seasons or the 07 is the fluke here considering Lopez’s age and miscellaneous factors. While his average did spike a little over his career average, it’s not like it was a Carlos Pena of ‘07 – a .012 increase of his 08 season batting average to his 06 season is just over a 4% improvement, and that doesn’t seem to scream fluke to me.
I might like Lopez more than some, and I admit he’s not perfect (he still doesn’t draw many walks), but if he can replicate/improve on this past year, which isn’t out of the question considering his young age, he could be one of his league’s best second basemen. Aside from Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Pedroia, and Kendrick, Lopez is already one of the better at his position in the AL.
Mark Ellis is so much better than Lopez, it's not even funny
Probably a 3 win difference between the two of them, certainly not less than 2.
Placido Polanco has a similar advantage. Asdrubal Cabrera has a vastly higher ceiling. Aaron Hill is a much better player. So is Iwamura.
In point of fact, the only organizations I would say are WORSE off at second base in the AL are Minnesota and Kansas City.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Are you being serious?
I mean, one of the weaknesses in communicating via blogs is that it’s more difficult to pick up on sarcastic remarks than in real life.
I mean, Mark Ellis hit .233 this year as a 31-year old with an OPS+ of 90, dangerously close to your definition of “fucking terrible”. His career as an everyday second baseman looked to be in jeopardy until Oakland generously picked up his 09 option.
Iwamura is Lopez with less power and 5 years older.
Polanco is Lopez with less power, slightly better plate discipline, 8 years older and on a career decline.
Asdrubal Cabrera, as much as I hated him being traded away from Seattle, was struggling to have his average stay above the Mendoza line most of the year and was sent down to the minors at an age where Lopez was in his fourth major league season.
Aaron Hill I like, but you never know how a player is going to recover from a neurological trauma like the concussion he suffered, and his ’07 season (17 HR down to 2 in 08) might turn out to be a much larger fluke season than anything Lopez has done.
Alexei Ramirez could be in the conversation too, but it’s pretty difficult to predict what his career path will take with such a small statistical sample size.
In trying to objectively slot Lopez into an AL ranking of second basemen, he clearly seems superior than any of these names in relation to offensive performance, age, and defensive abilities. Any particular reason to make you think otherwise? Or are you truly joking and I was just unable to pick that up?
No, I am not joking.
I think I’ve figured this out— you’re just completely ignoring defense. (Or maybe fantasizing that Lopez is a plus defender, in which case… well, he isn’t.) And maybe OBP too. OK. I’m not, so…
Mark Ellis is 15 runs above average defensively in a bad season (more like 20, I think) and 13 OPS+ points better than Lopez over his career.
Iwamura has an 11 point advantage in OPS+.
Polanco has a 13 point advantage in OPS+ and 10 runs a season on Lopez defensively.
Asdrubal Cabrera is a good defensive shortstop and knows how to take a walk. Despite what many perceived to be a horrible season this year, it was better than Lopez’s career OPS+.
Aaron Hill has virtually an identical statline to Polanco (10 runs better on offense AND defense than Lopez) and is younger than Placido.
I am absolutely being serious. I think Jose Lopez is barely above replacement level as a player and someone I would be enraged if my club gave up any value to acquire.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Triunfel a B+?
I know he might be the top prospect, albeit in a very weak system, but how is he a B+? Being your team’s top prospect doesn’t make you a B+. Holding your own in Low A as an 18-year-old — .269 BA with 8 HR, a .336 OBP — doesn’t make you a B+. I think some of you guys are very liberal with your grades. I could easily see this guy flame out.
Look at his July/August in A+
First off, he spent the season as an 18 year old in A+, not low-A. He made huge strides as the season went on, and he got over his “personal” issues. He’s also more than holding his own in the AFL right now. He jumped from 0 HR last year to 8 this year, showing that he’s adding power to his game.
Scouting reports I’ve seen have been very positive on his offensive game, and he’ll going to be a top 25 guy on many lists going into next year, so I think that B+ is very reasonable.
Exactly
Some system’s top prospects shouldn’t deserve a high grade just the hell of it (John gave Carlos Carrasco a B as Philadelphia’s top prospect), but Triunfel was a B+ last year, and even though he didn’t tear up high-A as an 18-year old, he certainly did enough (especially later in the year) to warrant keeping that grade from last year. To me, he basically looks like a one year younger version of Elvis Andrus (who is one year older and one level higher) – graded mainly on tools, potential, and position eligibility.
I'm not sure what you mean...
Fields hasn’t signed yet with Seattle, but since he was a senior when he was drafted (I think he may have been a fifth-year senior, but I’m not sure) the signing deadline didn’t apply to him. Seattle owns his rights until next year’s draft.
Not a 5th year senior, but any senior has until next years draft to be signed.
5th year seniors have the opportunity to essentially become free agents. They may choose to sign with any team they would like before the draft or they can enter the draft. This wasn’t Fields.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
nope
the 5th year senior rule was done away in the latest CBA I think,
But you are right that seniors that don’t sign have until next draft to sign.
by nms on Nov 3, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting. Wasn't aware of that. Thanks.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Eh...
The biggest ranking gaffe here is Peguero. I think BA will disagree with you and place Saunders and Moore as 1 and 2, but there isn’t really a huge difference at the top level and I’m not sure you’re wrong to downgrade Saunders relative to the rest of the prospecting community.
Peguero, however, can neither field nor hit at this point in his career. He has raw power, and that’s it. A 21 year old who failed to translate his raw power into games in the most hitter-friendly park in the minors and literally has no secondary skills whatsoever is not a very good prospect. His upside is basically Mike Wilson.
True
I’m not really high on Peguero myself, and like John’s lists, one shouldn’t worry too much on the order of prospects with like grades. Seeing the prospects behind him, it’s hard to say how far he should be dropped down.
I'd put him
out of the top-20 by a considerable margin. Of the guys on your list, Tuiasosopo, Martinez, and Raben all have much higher upsides, and Wilson is about as good as Peguero’s ever going to get even if he fulfills his ultimate upside. I’d rank Denny Almonte ahead of him, too. Right now they’re pretty much the exact same hitter. Their ISOs were virtually identical, although Peguero’s was in a hitter’s heaven while Almonte’s was in a pitcher-friendly league. They both have the same offensive profile though: solid power, no walks, high K-totals. The difference is that Almonte’s 2 years younger and plays a quality center field while Peguero’s a liability in left. I’d also probably slot Jose Rivero and Gabriel Noriega above Peguero on pure potential. If we think about prospect rankings in terms of “would you trade x for y” there’s no way in hell I’d rank Peguero above totally untested newbies like Julio Morban and Aaron Pribanic, either.
Basically what I’m trying to say is, Peguero’s not really a prospect. A breakout campaign can change his fortunes, but right now he really looks like a long shot to have any kind of major league career.
Rankings
I’d probably slot JDJ and Saunders right behind Pineda, bump Ramirez ahead of Moore and drop Fields and Valbuena out of the top 10. Quick thought would be that Peguero would probably end up outside the Top 20. Ranking the Mariners is pretty damn tough; outside of the top-10 prospects, it’s nothing but old fringe prospects and pitchers destined for the bullpen.
One prospect that intrigues me, however, is 19-year-old pitcher Kenta Suda. The Mariners signed him out of Japan back in January and the profile on him says he has a 95 mph fastball that may gain a tick or two as he matures as well as a feel for two other pitches. The only problem is he has very little command or control of his pitches but, given the Mariners track record of handling young, raw pitchers, he’s in the right organization to help him succeed.
The profile...
I’ve never heard 95. He certainly wasn’t throwing that hard during his stint with Everett last year. He was sitting more in the 88-90 range.
And yeah, the Mariners’ system is solid at the top, but unbelievably shallow. It’s hard to get to 20 without listing a bunch of toolsy teenagers who have yet to show much in terms of real ability.
I’m going to say that the Mariners current #1 prospect is whoever they choose with the #2 pick in the June draft.
Suda's velocity
Yeah, I read the same thing about his velocity. When he was signed, I remember the press release said he was peaking at 95 with his fastball in Japan (guess we should take that for what it’s worth). I wonder how much of the drop-off can be contributed to getting him to focus more on control than just chucking it over the plate, although it definitely doesn’t show in the results. For the amount of press his signing received, it doesn’t seem like there was much of a follow-up to his stateside debut; I’ve been going off more first-hand anecdotal evidence than actual scouting reports.
I forgot about Suda
and I also remember reading a while back that the Ms had invested in some Chinese prospects last year. While certainly not 16-year old studs from the dominican republic, it’ll be interesting to see how they develop, seeing how Seattle’s always been a big player in international scouting and development.
That's probably true of 25 teams
That said… you’re right, there is a severe lack of polish in this group. (And, as such, I find the grades to be extremely optimistic.) There’s not a single player here about whom it can be said that he is more likely than not to be a solid MLB player.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
FWIW,
I think it was Jim Callis who said that he’d rank Michael Saunders and Adam More as the #1 and #2 prospects in the system.
I don’t think I agree with him, but there you go.
Moore
I guess I can see why Callis would rank Moore ahead of Halman, given his slash stats and reports of improved defense, but Moore seems to have a much lower ceiling than Halman, even with the lack of plate discipline.
Yeah...
Like I said, I don’t agree. I rate Halman, Aumont, and Triunfel above Moore. My other big take on the Mariners system is that I like Luis Valbuena a lot more than most people, but I understand the conservative ranking based on limited upside.
Valbuena
Hard to argue with the marked improvement at the plate this season. I really don’t know what to make of him though. At times he looks like he could hit for decent power but he seems to be trading a lot of it off for contact and working deep counts. Still, a middle infielder with that kind of plate discipline is always one to keep an eye on.
See my post regarding Mike Wilson, but I hope guys like Valbuena get a legitimate shot at a roster spot now that Bavasi’s gone.
Valbuena...
has never had a lot of power. He can turn on an average fastball every once in awhile, but he doesn’t have the strength to muscle balls out of the park. He’s a gap-to-gap guy, but a legitimate one as opposed to the hundreds of prospects who are “projected” to develop gap power.
I’ve been a fan for a few years. I think he’ll be a league average MI with a plus glove, which is very valuable.
Thanks...
for taking the time to post this. As a fellow Mariner fan, I do think you have Saunders a little too low, but not by much. I would have listed him as #5 and moved everyone else down. Also, I am a big Halman fan, and I would have put him #1. I like Triunfel and all, but I love Halman’s combo of power and speed. He seems to me to be a Alfonso Soriano type of player, but who can play CF and isn’t limited to LF.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Halman
That’s very true about his defensive profile – Halman has a good arm and from what I’ve read sounds like a very solid defender that could play pretty much any outfield position. It will be interesting to see if he starts next year in the PCL and if he mashes there, could potentially get a call-up mid-season.
nice list
Definitely reasonable, I’d put Saunders at B- but can see the logic behind having Triunfel at B+, though I think it’s definitely borderline. Thanks for putting in the time to make this, it’s good to see this kind of individual initiative coming back into the minorleagueball community
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Nov 3, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions
Mike Wilson
He’s a little too old to be considered a good prospect but it’s interesting to note the similarities between Wilson’s minor league career and Raul Ibanez’s. While I’m not suggesting Wilson is destined to have the same kind of late-stage career like Ibanez has, I think he at least deserves a shot at a bench spot for the 2009 Mariners.
The one thing that irked me during the Bavasi era is that he never gave fringe prospects the chance to fill back-of-the-bench positional spots, instead relying on the Miguel Cairos of the world to take up bloated space on the roster.
Wilson...
is more Greg Pirkl than Raul Ibanez, IMO. Ibanez was a better defender at the same age, with less raw power but a much better approach. He never had Wilson’s contact problems.
Wasn’t Wilson considered somewhat of a decently-defensive athletic type? Has he regressed? I don’t remember much praise for Ibanez’s defense coming through the system and he’s definitely been average or worse in the field since becoming a full-time player.
Ibanez
Yeah, Ibanez was drafted as a catcher and after a few horrible years behind the dish the Ms were compelled to convert him to the outfield. He was an average defender at best with a good arm for left field, and Wilson has a similar profile.
No.
Wilson is a linebacker who plays baseball. He’s not slow, but he’s a liability in the outfield.
Speaking of fringe average prospects
One guy that I always wanted to see make the show (and he was so close!) was Juan “Large Human” Thomas. He toiled around in AAA for a couple of years, but I always wanted to see how his bat would translate to the majors. Last I checked he went from AAA to Indie leagues. Not sure if he’s still playing, seeing how he’s probably in his mid-30s now.
wow I feel like an idiot.
somehow I missed this and posted my own M’s top 10 my bad
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