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The "Japan Problem"

I love the fact that teams can now sign Japanese amatures, but in I read somewhere that Japan may feel the need to sign Americans before the draft. 

 

Has anyone heard this rumor, and if so, do they feel like me about it?

 

On a side note: Does anybody think Tazawa will have an MLB future as a #3 starter or better. I looked at some videos of him, and I like his abilities. Also, I have been scouting Yu Darvish for years, and am alarmed by him wanting to get 200 wins in Japan before going to the U.S to play. He has wicked movement on his pitches.

 

 

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Mets Scouts

Mets scouts say that Tazawa will never be any good because he’s only 5’10" and he can barely hit 90.

That’s how you know he’s good.

by supermets on Nov 29, 2008 4:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And on the first part

Japanese teams technically can sign our players before the draft, but most players won’t want to. It’s more likely for a Japanese team to sign a guy like Crow who didn’t sign.

Eventually the two leagues will make some type of agreement that they won’t sign each other’s amateurs.

by supermets on Nov 29, 2008 4:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hasn't that always been an unwritten rule?

and Tazawa is just ignoring that rule? or am I mistaken?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Nov 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably

I think it will become a written rule in the near future.

by supermets on Nov 29, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

japan signings

don’t kid yourself into thinking this is a josh-childress-to-europe sort of thing….any kid worth his two bits will stay in American ball because the money is incredibly better with a lot more jobs to be had at that better pay….the guy who will get more in japan than in the US is the perennial 4th outfielder in the US that can put out 15-20 homers hitting part time or a swingman who puts up league average era, but never really seems to get a shot at a full time starting gig or a spot at the back of the pen….those guys will get more money and will like their opportunities in japan, but the japanese leagues simply don’t offer the money to a guy with no pro track record that american ball does….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You can all thank the Red Sox for making a run at him.

Now some American prospects will be swayed to Japan for more money.

by schmosterballs92 on Nov 29, 2008 5:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If a US player signs to a Japanese club before he's drafted in the States...

Would the NPB club own his rights for 9 years, like with Japanese players? If so, I’d think that only fringy US prospects would consider making that move, as they’d miss out on playing in the MLB during their physical prime (and would make a lot less money over that time span).

by jibs on Nov 29, 2008 6:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't think so

I think non-Japanese players are exempt from the Japanese reserve clause. I know NPB teams have a set limit of how many foreigners their team can have (three?), and they’re essentially signed to one-year deals. Of course the only examples I can think of are players that had prior professional experience elsewhere – I know the case of Alfonso Soriano was a landmark in the way the Yankees were able to work around his Japanese contract. I should re-read “The Samurai Way of Baseball” to refresh my memory on that.

by Grudyfan on Nov 30, 2008 3:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

um

someone this offseason was signed to a 2-year deal to go over to japan….so it does happen

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 30, 2008 7:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

On Darvish

He’s also never said he’d want to come to America after 200 wins to my knowledge. He has said he wants to win 200 in Japan, but has also stated repeatedly that he has no desire to play here.

by benzalman on Nov 29, 2008 7:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's probably mostly talk

In Japanese culture, it would be inappropriate for him to say anything else at this point, when he has no leverage whatsoever to come here. You might hear different once he’s a year or two away from free agency.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 29, 2008 8:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

his father is iranian

he has said mnultiple times hes unhappy with american policy
he is a huge celeb there

i doubt he comes at the current time.

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Nov 30, 2008 2:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what are you talking about?

the japanese want to come here because they will get more money and play against better competition, the US players that go there turn into studs and they only go there when they are cut and not getting money from mlb teams, the fact you even said this thread with a straight face scares me as to your prospects of ever being listened to again

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Stop the nonsence IHMM

Go join Mccoveychronicles, you will get a REAL education there!

by Matt Rox on Nov 29, 2008 7:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow. Apparently no one understands the actual issues involved here.

MLB DOES have an agreement not to sign Japanese high schoolers – Tazawa is a unique case because he is not coming out of high school – he is coming out of an industrial league – which is a lower amateur league apparently equivalent to high minors.. He finished one level of schooling is my understanding – and the NPB (Nippon[Japan] Professional Baseball) teams then passed on drafting him.

After he finished his high school career in Yokohama, Tazawa was not drafted by any of Nippon Professional Baseball’s 12 teams, and joined the company team of Nippon Oil in the corporate league, unaffiliated with the NPB.3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junichi_Tazawa

This is a rare case which is unlikely to have any major ramifications on MLB-NPB relations. There is zero chance Japanese teams start raiding American high schoolers to any extent we would even notice. Simply put, American high schooler dont want to go over there.

 Tazawa changed nothing. He’s an exception to the rules already in place. Very few first round NPB draft talents come from this league – and even less often would a player MLB teams would be interested in come out of this league instead of high school. ALL the best players come out of high school ball. That’s why the rules governing MLB-NPB transactions didnt anticipate this situation. It is not a common occurence.

As to his velocity – his fastball has reportedly been clocked as high as 97mph:

In 2007, he pitched for Japan at the Baseball World Cup in Taiwan, where his fastball was clocked at 97 miles per hour (156 km/h).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junichi_Tazawa

BUT Sox scouts were quoted as saying he works in the low 90’s most of the time:

The Sox have been scouting Tazawa for more than a year, according to the Globe’s Tony Massarotti, but a club official cautioned against unrealistic expectations for Tazawa, who likely needs time in the minor leagues and who might be a comparable talent to someone like former Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners righthander Shigetoshi Hasegawa.

According to [one] source, Tazawa throws in the low 90s — not in the 97-mile per hour range, as some have reported — and possesses a good breaking ball to go along with a changeup.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/11/reports_red_sox.html

His fastball is also pretty straight – like many Japanese pitchers. Theyre actually taught to throw straight fastballs, actually. Its to make their heater contrast with forks, splitters, shootballs and the rest of the crap they prefer instead of the big breaking balls over here. Think Hideo Nomo.

But please, everyone keep making broad, nonsensical comments about the Red Sox, Japan, MLB, etc… Its really amusing what Im reading above. Just know there is no “Japan Problem.”

by alskor on Nov 29, 2008 10:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's inevitable that the Japanese ML will die out

I mean, I’m sure professional baseball will continue to exist in some form. But on one level or another, it’ll just be a feeder for MLB. Much moreso than it is today. It’s in MLB’s best interest to allow the young, elite talents to come over when they’re amateurs rather than once they’re established stars and have to be posted a la Matsuzaka, and it’s in the young players’ best interest to get MLB money up front instead of signing for far less and be destined to remain under team control in Japan through their prime years. Because of this, these two parties will work on something that is best for them and account for the Japanese leagues as little as they can.

At this point, the best option for Japanese professional ball would be to establish a firm agreement on how Japanese players can make a path to the majors, using the Japanese leagues as something more than a farm league. I’m not sure how this would work, but I think one solution could be to have an “amateur draft” of Japanese players once they hit 18 (or 16 or whenever they start playing professionally or the equivalent of college ball over there) where MLB teams can establish rights to certain players. However, these players would play in Japanese ball until they were 25 (or 28 or 30 or whatever they decide on), and MLB teams could then purchase the rights to the players they drafted. But the money goes to the team instead of the players here. After being purchased, a player must be placed on the ML 40-man, is cost-controlled for two years, arbitration-eligible for two more, and is then treated as a FA. Players would have two option years. (The number of years, etc. would obviously be up for negotiation; I’m just spitballin’ here.)

This cedes quite a bit of authority to the ML clubs, but at the same time, guarantees that the elite Japanese talent will be in Japan for at least a little while, and, perhaps more importantly, the mediocre talent won’t go to the states when it’s 18 because the money is better, which is what would really kill the Japanese leagues IMO.

by mraver on Nov 30, 2008 2:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Disagree

There are a tremendous amount of Japanese that play baseball – and the baseball played in that country is at an extremely high level. It is difficult to believe that the majority of these players will want or can come to the US. They like Japan. They like playing baseball in Japan. Even if a system as you suggested existed, its not like every good Japanese baseball player would want to play in MLB. The Japanese clubs pay pretty well, too.

There are only a handful of Japanese players in MLB at this time. This has not seriously affected the quality of the NPB – except for some star power at the top. A bigger threat is the popularity of the J-League, the fairly new soccer league in Japan. That’s drawing attention, advertising dollars and TV ratings away from NPB in these tough economic times.

There is already a firm agreement on how Japanese players make a path to the majors. 9 years until free agency, we respect their contracts and wont draft their minor leaguers, teams may post players they control. It is a well defined system with well established rules. Tazawa was a freak case of a player not covered by these rules – and its unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Again, there is no danger of MLB clubs signing Japanese high school players, ergo there is no threat to the NPB in any way youre suggesting. No door was opened by Tazawa. Nothing has changed. One time thing.

by alskor on Nov 30, 2008 2:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a money thing

When you’re 18, and you can get tons more money to play in the more elite league, do you really not take it? I’m sure some won’t, but a lot of others will. What you have to avoid if you’re Japan is the bulk of your young talent leaving to play in the minors. The Tazawa deal is the first step in that direction. To do this, you need to cede enough rights to MLB that they’re better off dealing with you (and presumably saving money by not having to pay the 18 year old Japanese) than just ignoring you and signing the kids at market value. The current agreement monopolizes the talent in Japan for a long, long time, and as we’ve seen, can be circumvented rather easily. It’s definitely not in the best interest of MLB (they’re not worried about AAAA players being signed to play in Japan), so they’ll get around it if they can, as we saw the Red Sox, Rangers, Braves, and others do by offering Tazawa contracts.

If Japan doesn’t do something to get out in front of this, they’ll become another Domincan Republic baseball-wise. And I don’t mean to say that’s catastrophic for anyone. But it means your elite talent doesn’t stay at home to play ball after a very young age.

by mraver on Nov 30, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

tazawa

was not the same situation at all….that’d be like signing someone from an independent league here in the US vs. signing someone off of another team’s AA squad….tazawa’s like that indy league guy….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 30, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes, and...

The reason he was in the instructional league rather than the “real” league was because he wanted to exploit the loophole. He’s definitely one of the premier young talents in Japan; he’s not some random guy from the instructional leagues.

My point is that more people will exploit this loophole now that everyone knows it exists. This is what makes the current system unsustainable.

by mraver on Nov 30, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Youve completely missed this again
The current agreement monopolizes the talent in Japan for a long, long time, and as we’ve seen, can be circumvented rather easily.

It ABSOLUTELY can NOT. Tazawa is a unique case.

by alskor on Nov 30, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There's interest...

but the league is essentially bankrupt. They’re having huge problems.

Eventually MLB is going to have to step in and work with NPB to keep the league functioning.

by slamcactus on Nov 30, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why does MLB care?

Doesn’t this just mean less competition and no more $50 million posting fees?

by mraver on Nov 30, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it also means

less talent available. Well less developed talent anyway.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Nov 30, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not in the short-run

And in the long run, baseball’s still popular in Japan, kids just root for (and spend money on) MLB teams rather than Nippon Ham Fighters gear.

Regardless, MLB’s current administration has shown themselves to be exceptionally short-sighted in everything they do, so even if it were in the best interest of the sport to have a strong professional league in Japan, I’d be shocked if MLB was willing to keep it around at the expense of some short-term monetary gain.

by mraver on Nov 30, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

(fights ham)

Maybe Bud et al. could take a look at ECW and start funneling some money to NPB. Just because they’re nominally competition, it doesn’t mean that they can’t help ‘em out, as NPB’s existence benefits MLB.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Nov 30, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Feeder

ECW is a feeder league and nothing more. I mean, Matt Hardy is their champ for crying out loud.

by GuyinNY on Dec 2, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Erm...

I meant Original Recipe ECW, not the WWE-owned revival. Back before shutting down in 2001, WWE was covertly funneling ECW money in exchange for talent.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Dec 7, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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