Ryan Zimmerman

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 26, 2008 8:06 AM EST Comment 34 comments

It seems like this kid has been around forever, but I noticed he just turned 24 on September 28th. The kid literally played his third full MLB season at the age of 23. He struggled with a myriad of injuries this past year, yet despite these nagging injuries he posted a line of .306/.370/.455/.825 after the All Star Break last year all while providing gold glove level defense at 3rd base. This is much more in line with what I think he is capableof as opposed to his first half. What does everyone see his production being like in his peak years? Clearly he still has room to develop since he has been so young for MLB(and still holds his own). Any and all thoughts are welcome.

Charlie

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Another Age Surprise

I am no MLB prognosticator so I won’t even try to guess at Zimmerman’s peak performance . . . but I had a similar realization when looking into Matt Cain . . . 650+ MLB IP, 550+ K, never had an ERA above 4.15 and under 3.8 the last two years . . . he turned 24 on October 1st. It might have been just me, but I thought he was much older than that.

by mestifo on Nov 26, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Felix Hernandez

another guy that seems to have been around forever — he’ll turn 23 when the 09 season starts.

Ryan Zimmerman’s peak is a bit difficult to predict. If he can improve his strike zone discipline, I can see him hitting .300+ with a crapload of doubles and 25+ homers. One funny thing I noticed is that over his career he has hit way better at home than on the road. I didn’t expect that.

by JP_Frost on Nov 26, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a Met fan, I’m very thankful that David Wright and Jose Reyes are still just 25 years old each. Pretty crazy for people who have over 4 full seasons under their belts already.

by adropofvenom on Nov 26, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Zimmerman

so far has been better than Alex Gordon

by LCT on Nov 26, 2008 11:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Also this past season was Gordon’s age 24 season where next season is Zimmerman’s age 24 season.

I think players like this fall by the way side because of the shiney new toy syndrome. There are literally guys being put in our top 100 lists that are 1-2 years older than Zimmerman. Yet this is acceptable because Zimmerman is now being judged by what he can’t do, and these ‘prospects’ are being judged by what they ‘could’ do. Its just funny to me.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 26, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

fully agree

er….nothing to add. just agree.

by scooter on Nov 26, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Zimm or Gordon were on the list, they'd be top 5 guys, easily.

MAYBE you put Weiters or Price ahead of those two. Otherwise? No way. They were top prospects when they were prospects, and they’ve not totally sucked at the ML level.

by mraver on Nov 26, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I worry...

about tinkering with Gordon. I feel like the Royals have messed with his swing a bit, and he’s no longer driving the ball as much. He’s still an excellent young player, but I’m beginning to be a little skeptical about the idea of multiple All-Star selections in his future.

Zimmerman, on the other hand, has me waiting for a breakout season. Ceiling obviously not as high as Gordon’s, but he’s a damn good player already and only going to get better.

by slamcactus on Nov 26, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man

I feel you walking on eggshells to not have people jumping down your throat, and it’s for nothing. Gordon is not an excellent young player. He is a mediocre young player. And that is being generous. Unfair hype or not, Gordon has failed to deliver anywhere near his supposed potential in these first two years. I’m not talking about him potentially turning it around, because of course he can do that as soon as 2009. I’m just sick of the ass-kissing of Alex Gordon, because he has not earned it.

by Daniel Plainview on Nov 26, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea, because Gordon's just gotten so much praise lately

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really...

I wasn’t walking on eggshells. When a 24 year old 3B gives you plus defense and a 110 OPS+ (or a .344 wOBA for those more statistically inclined), he’s a valuable player.

He doesn’t have Beltre’s defense or A-Rod’s bat, but he’s above average on offense and defense and he’s still young. Alex Gordon is an above average player with a lot left for fans to dream on. He’s just not looking like the HOF candidate some proclaimed him to be when he was tearing up Double-A 3 years ago.

by slamcactus on Nov 26, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Be prepared to get slammed for saying Gordon's above average on defense

By the defensive metric lovers.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't have...

his most recent +/-, and I know he doesn’t rank as one of the best (or worst), but it was my impression that he grades out slightly above average. If I’m wrong and the metrics are right, I could see downgrading him to about league average overall. Still very valuable for free, and still a lot to dream on.

by slamcactus on Nov 26, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was like +3 in '07 and around -8 this year.

I think that is right. Then again, I do not trust metrics, as I’ve made that very clear at RR.

He is valuable. And he was quite good in the second half, if that means anything.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He cost his team about 8 runs in the field this year

CHONE projects him at 9 runs below average next season.

He’s a really mediocre fielder.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Did I mention I hate fielding metric PROJECTIONS even more than metric results?

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No...

and since I really couldn’t care less what you hate, I’d rather you continue not to mention it…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well don't worry

Now that you say that, I’ll keep letting you know every time I do hate something.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah!

What’s with all the Gordon love? Stop sucking his dick already, guys. He’s already 24 and hasn’t even made an all-star team. What a loser. Total bust. If I had his baseball card, I’d burn it because the 2 seconds of heat it would give me would be worth way more than any value he or his card will ever have. Yall are just a bunch of Gordon fluffers for saying different.

by mraver on Nov 26, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

#1

If Ryan Zimmerman were somehow allowed back onto prospect lists with his current track record? He’d be the no. 1 pick and it wouldn’t be particularly close. I’d probably take a few guys ahead of Gordon, tho (Weiters, Price, Maybin…).

by GuyinNY on Nov 26, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that

And if you included other guys Zimmerman’s age and younger that are in the majors, he definitely wouldn’t be #1.

by jibs on Nov 26, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

I think he meant if only Zimmerman went back in. I’m sure fellows like Hanley would be higher.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Nov 26, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

And I think there are plenty of people that would prefer Wieters to Zimmerman

by jibs on Nov 26, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I doubt Zimmerman, if placed back onto prospect lists, would be behind Wieters. Wieters may be a great, great prospect but Zimmerman is a young, MLB proven bat with plenty of upside who just so happens to be a generational defender at 3b. I can’t imagine a team passing on that package in a draft.

by GuyinNY on Nov 27, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The positional scarcity at C changes everything

Zimmerman may be MLB-proven, but he’s consistently had less than stellar OBP and K/BB ratios. He’d need to make a quantum leap in that regard to make him that much more valuable than other 3b. I’m all for his defensive value as well, but frankly it’s just not that hard to go out and find someone to provide capable performance at 3b.

Wieters has the offensive talent to stand head and shoulders above every other player at his position, AND adds solid defense. Zimmerman will never be that type of player. It’s extremely unlikely that he would be able to put up an overall performance at 3b that would make him so much more valuable than A-Rod, Wright, Longoria, Youklis if he moves to 3rd, maybe guys like Pedro Alvarez in a couple years if he puts up gargantuan offensive numbers, etc. Wieters will likely make a mockery of all his peers in terms of overall performance, with the exception of Mauer.

I don’t care if he hasn’t had a single MLB at bat, if given the choice to build an MLB franchise around Zimmerman or Wieters and then get handed a league average player at the other position, I take Wieters without a doubt.

by jibs on Nov 27, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I totally see where you are coming from. But before Alex Gordon had a single MLB at bat, his numbers were every bit as gaudy as Weiters in AA. I think this all goes back to prospects being judged based on what they ‘could’ do, and MLB players(regardless of age) being held more to a standard of what they can’t do. Now, you can go ahead and say that you were one of the people that wasn’t convinced that Alex Gordon was the #1 overall best prospect in all of baseball in his time, but I won’t. I absolutely thought that Gordon was going to come to the majors and rake by the time he got his feet wet. He still may, mind you, but the shine has worn off for most of the people who projected such gaudy numbers for him(all due to him posting the same type of numbers that Weiters is posting now, and at the same level.)

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 27, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

If Wieters comes up to the bigs and puts up the exact same offensive numbers as Gordon this year while providing “as advertised” defense at catcher, he’s still more valuable than what Zimmerman has done to date as a 3b.

And the thing with Gordon is that he has performed near the bottom percentile of what could be expected of him based on his AA performance. He hasn’t met expectations, but other touted guys like Braun and Longoria have exceeded expectations. This isn’t a case where all suspects are assumed Gordon until proven Longoria. Given Wieters’ rate stats, K/BB ratio, and the scouting reports on his performance, I’m willing to take the chance that he’ll be a solid MLB offensive performer right away.

by jibs on Nov 27, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wieters

“Wieters has the offensive talent to stand head and shoulders above every other player at his position”

Brian “I already had a 143 OPS+ season in MLB at the age Wieters is now” McCann says that is impossible.

by drwmsu1 on Nov 28, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

McCann slipped my mind. I still stand by my general premise.

by jibs on Nov 28, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably right

But man, MLB catcher is a darn hard position to play. Even John called him a “mutant cross between Piazza and Mauer”. If true, that puts him on the short list for best catcher of all time. I would like to see the hype toned down a bit is all. I think he is the best prospect in baseball, but it seems it will be almost impossible for him to meet the expectations being placed on him.

by drwmsu1 on Nov 28, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Wood

IIRC, John once said BW would fall somewhere between Jeter and Ripken…

Yeah, toning down the expectations would be a good thing.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 28, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zimmerman

Agree 100% with the OP, and, frankly, am a little annoyed at this diary. Would it have killed you to wait until April to create this diary?? I think most redraft fantasy leaguers agree with me. With guys like Braun and Cabrera moving off 3B, Zimmerman is a huge sleeper, IMO.

2009 is the year of Zimm. 305/355/470, with GG defense at third. Then: .300/.385/520 in 2010. This guy’s going to be a superstar.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 26, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like the utterly random .05 point regression in BA.

Seriously. Huh?

by mraver on Nov 26, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really?

That’s what you focus on? The 5 point “regression” in BA, not the 900+ OPS projection?

And yes, it is “utterly random,” because BA projections inherently are, especially when the variations are so minor.

But, since you’re curious, and since you asked all nice like, the reasoning went something like this: For 2009, I think he’ll perform at the same level he did in Aug/Sept 2008, when he was back and somewhat healthy. That blended line was 305/355/470. I think he’ll improve in patience and power as he matures in the league, so for OBP and SLG I added 30 and 50 points respectively. It’s a round estimate, because on some level it’s all guesswork. I don’t think there’s much BA growth there right now, so I stuck with the same number, and I just rounded to an even 300.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 27, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs