Thoughts on Alexi Casilla

by davidsabin on Nov 25, 2008 6:28 PM EST Comment 14 comments

I was interested in Alexi Casilla. Why, you wonder? I am in a 20 team dynasty league, and we all love finding the next bargin.

He had a nice average last year. Not the best at taking a walk, OB% is a little weak, but this was his first regualar season.

From a fantasy perspective, the SB potential is what I am looking for. Nice SB track record in the minors 89 for 116 in 3 seasons, and good success in the bigs 18 for 21.

I don't watch the Twins that much, but I think Guardenhire (SP?) is a very measured manager. Does anyone out there think Guardy will green light him 20-30 times this year?

Bill James has him at 20SB this year.

So, will Casilla develop some value next year from a fantasy standpoint?

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Casilla

He’ll be the two hitter and may not run as much as you think. With mauer hitting behind him gardy seemed to like a bigger hole on the left side with a runner on….

I think around 20-25 is about right. He will probably end up as a ss, possibly this year if the twins dont make any moves, which may increase his fantasy value depending on leauge.

by Twinsfan24 on Nov 25, 2008 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think he can still around 20 bags if he plays about a full season. He’s a good hitter whom is still refining his game. I think he can be a .300 type hitter or close to it, with his ability to beat out infield hits.

He will never be a big power guy, 5 HR’s maybe some doubles and triples. He’s a pretty good player though, and a viable fantasy option if you don’t land one of the stud 2nd basemen.

by hotshotschamp on Nov 25, 2008 6:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I dont think he can hit .300

He’s not a good hitter either. His defense and speed on the basepaths is nice.

He’s a decent fantasy option, but underwhelming as a real life option. Not the worst in the league by any means, but far from first. I like him a little bit more if he’s a SS, but SS and 2B are about equally valuable in fantasy these days.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a big fan

He hasn’t had a SLG % over .400 in AA or AAA not much of a prospect if you can’t do that his D at SS will maybe be average and a ML line of .261/.310/.336 isn’t good even for a SS. Now he could improve to 280/.340/.370 which would be serviceable Ok I guess at SS but I don’t see it. I think a comfortable middle ground might be .270/.320/.350

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 25, 2008 11:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

23 years old

I think you do him a disservice to just focus on his year-end numbers. He was going great until he got injured. When he got back, it took him like a month to get back in the groove. Give him spring training as the starter and a full healthy year and you’ll have a better read on him. He’s a Polanco type of player.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 30, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ARL means

nothing. if you don’t produce. Besides it much harder to make a case with out using ARL if he puts up the same numbers next year is it just because he’s only 24. This argument didn’t hold water with rivas and it doesn’t now.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 30, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

running

the list of guys who’ve eclipsed 20 steals under gardenhire is a long list…he’s very much a small ball manager, and if you can get from first to second without wasting an out, he’s all for it….that said, he very much prefers the hit and run to the straight steal with someone like mauer aboard, which is where casilla likely will be hitting, barring the signing of a leadoff type hitter….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 26, 2008 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the list of guys who’ve eclipsed 20 steals under gardenhire is a long list

Name them.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 28, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

there's like

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 28, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i did intend different wording

i intended to say that the guys to attempt 20 as he likes to run, but he also shuts guys down if they’re not successful….he’s had some guys who had very poor success along the way, but casilla seems to do well enough that he’d get a green light, going 18/21 the last two years in about a full season combined…..for the question…those who’ve attempted 20, with their success rate….

2002
Hunter 23/31
Guzman 12/25
Koskie 10/21

2003
Guzman 18/27
Rivas 17/24

2004
Hunter 21/28
Jones 13/23
Ford 20/22

2005
Hunter 23/30
Punto 13/21
(the team had 5 guys with double digit steals)

2006
Castillo 25/36
Punto 17/22

2007
Hunter 18/27
Bartlett 23/26
Punto 16/22

2008
Gomez 33/44
Span 18/25
Punto 15/21

So 11 different guys have attempted 20 with 18 times a player attempted 20+, 5 different guys have stolen 20 with 7 times a player stole 20+…that’s at least one per season over gardenhire’s 7 year career, and he always has multiple guys with double digit steals….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Angels MI logjam...

Remember a few years back when everyone was worried about the Angels’ MI logjam, and they fixed it by shipping off the two less heralded guys (Casilla and Callaspo) while keeping Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood?

by slamcactus on Nov 26, 2008 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA used to like him

2 years ago it thought the world of him, now not so much. It really comes down to his OBP. He’s got the contact rate to hit around .300, so if he can draw enough walks to get on base in the .360+ range he’ll be very valuable. Basically Luis Castillo with good SS defense and 70-80 speed… that’s a very underrated player.

If he doesn’t draw walks, he’s a 600 OPS hacker that you play for defense and because you have no one better in your system. He’d probably end up overrated b/c of his steals in that case.

by Ophidian on Nov 27, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

CHONE hates his defense... he's projected at -6 runs at shortstop

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 28, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

at 2b

he’s a plus defender, but i think he’s tremendously better, from what i’ve seen, going to his right than to his left, which would make his shortstop range less than ideal….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs