Boston Red Sox Organization Discussion Thread

what's your take on Casey Kelly and Derrick Gibson

Casey Kelly in the game I seen in Oneonta was his best game of his career. He looked like a young Derek Jeter with better SS skills. Hit rockets into the gaps and ran like the wind. Didn’t see Gibson play other than draw a walk, but I talked to the kid before the game and sounds like he’s very determined to become a good player. I didn’t know he was committed to UNC for baseball, which is pretty cool.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 24, 2008 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kelly

Kelly has to be one of the more confusing prospects to evaluate in quite some time, as last I heard the Red Sox were trying to devise a plan to have him develop as a pitcher and a shortstop at the same time. Something along the lines of having him start the season as a pitcher/DH and then switch to shortstop once he hits an innings count? Do you give this guy two separate grades?

Before the draft, I loved him as a pitcher and “only” liked him as a shortstop. Three potential plus pitches, an ideal pitcher’s frame, and excellent athleticism? Sign me up.

by mrkupe on Nov 24, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Coudln’t you pitch and DH him one day, have him play 3 days in the field and then rest him?

If that works out, he could be a hell of a roster addition…

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 24, 2008 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

?

Sure, although playing shortstop on those days would probably be a no-no given the need to rest his arm a bit. It’s not quite like the college game. A position where he wouldn’t be asked to make a lot of high-stress throws seems like a better possibility (LF, or more likely 1B).

by mrkupe on Nov 24, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's how the Sox feel as well.

He’s only 19 so theyre going to let him play the field mostly for the next year and hopefully avoid any injury nexus issues.

I think there’s little doubt he ends up as a pitcher. The Sox always take it very slowly with high school arms anyway, so its not going to be much of an issue.

by alskor on Nov 24, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really liked Kelly when I saw him play

at the AFLAC. I was hoping the tribe would take him over Chisenhall because I believed he would be a better SS than pitcher. This is not to demean his ability as a pitcher which is probably a safer route to the majors, if such a thing exists at 18.

Boy, the Sox have a great system when you can spend the big bucks to fill in for anything your farm system cannot provide which isn’t much.

by sdtribefan on Nov 25, 2008 5:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lars Anderson Need Advice

Hey Guys,
I have Lars Anderson on my sim team and I have Berkman and Ortiz in front of him at 1B and DH…. How good can Lars be and is he worth stashing for one more year and then trying to trade Ortiz? What kind of line do you think he puts up once he settles in…
Is .310/.380/.550 about right as his average year once he is established?
I know he has good power and average in the minors, will it translate? Help!! Opinions please?

by Maxima231 on Nov 24, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

His average year = Justin Morneau's MVP year?

This seems unlikely.

Suggestion: wait until the Red Sox figure out what they’re doing with their FA money. If they sign Tex, Lars is probably spending another couple of seasons in the minors if he’s not just traded.

by mrkupe on Nov 24, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If they get Tex

They’d almost certainly be dealing Lars, if not now, then soon

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 24, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I cant say I agree

I think they keep him anyway. No one has any idea what to expect from Lowell – he might be toast. Lowell and Ortiz are both free agents in two years – which is about when Lars should be ready. Either way, the Sox have shown no reluctance to shuttle a guy back and forth – which they did to Youkilis for a couple years. This has the added benefit of delaying arb/free agency.

by alskor on Nov 24, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Youkilis would play 3rd

and Teixeira presumably would play 1st. Where would Lars be?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 24, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two ways to go here

DH’ing (assuming they send Ortiz packing) or playing bass in a supergroup with Lars Ulrich and Lars Frederiksen.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Nov 25, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DH

or Tex could DH. Or Youk could move to LF – or be gone – since he’s 30 years old for the 2009 season. Bay is also only signed for one more season.

My point is its a “down the road” problem not a “make moves around it now” problem – and the Sox realize that and arent going to let it get in the way of acquiring a premium player theyve coveted for a long time. Tex is just too good a fit to pass up. He adds a legit middle of the lineup bat that would easily make them the best lineup in the AL. He’s an excellent defender. He’s a switch-hitter. He’s a remarkably consistent offensive performer, who always slugs in the .500-.600+ range. He’s only 29 – which means 4 more seasons in his “prime.” He fits everything they look for in a player, on the field and off.

Things arent nearly as locked up as they seem. The only players the Sox have signed for 2011 are Dice K and JD Drew. The only player signed for 2012 is Dice K. That’s it. They have lots of young players under team control – but not many obligations. They very likely see Teixeira as the centerpiece for the Red Sox of the future.

They have the need, the opportunity and the desire. I think he’s in a Red Sox uniform by Christmas.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I don't see the Sox necessarily keeping Youkilis

If he keeps producing like this year, sure, but if he drops back to 2006 levels of production, I think they let him walk after 2010.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 25, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much

I dont see them signing him to a big extension – which he will likely command – at age 31. Ive always thought he was too much of an old players skill type to have a long career. I love the guy, but I could certainly see him taking the money and heading to his hometown Reds after 2011.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lars is more than a year away

More like 2+ and maybe another before he’s given a significant role. He’s still only 21.

by alskor on Nov 24, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uhm

2+ years? Seriously?

Yes, he’s only 21, but there has been significant buzz that he’ll be ready by this ASB if he’s needed. I don’t think that such a need will exist, but I do think he’ll be ready. He’s much more advanced than you think.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree.

He’s played 41 games above A ball. He could make an appearance and help out in a limited role next year perhaps – but in terms of being ready to be a major league regular I think 2+ years is about right.

Let me put it this way: There is virtually no chance the Red Sox hand this guy a job out of spring training in the ‘09 or ’10 seasons. So he will not be “ready” for a significant major league role before 2+ years. Consequently, there’s no need to be making MLB decisions around him, especially when it pertains to premiere free agents. Nearly every Red Sox player’s contract runs out within 2 years so there will be plenty of room for him if he is so good he forces their hand. That would make him a big league regular for his age 23 season. I think that’s plenty reasonable. Id be surprised if he takes a major role before 2011/ his age 23 season.

In terms of scouting, he still strikes out too much and he doesnt drive the ball with authority regularly. He has plenty of work to do. Talk of him being ready by the ASB is silly, IMHO.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who do they give up

To get a young catcher? Bowden? Masterson? Buchholz? Do you think a deal gets done with Texas?

Salty + ? for Buchholz?

by rangerjake on Nov 24, 2008 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think the Sox are willing to give up Buchholz; if Salty was a lock to stay behind the dish I doubt Texas would even be willing to trade him. I’m guessing Salty for Masterson + a lower level prospect.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 24, 2008 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’ve been pushing that trade for months now.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 24, 2008 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They absolutely will not trade Buchholz

I dont think theyll trade Masterson either. They might do Bowden, but I dont think theyre in love with Salty. That’s the impression I get.

by alskor on Nov 24, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Salty is overated

the only deal that makes sense would be for Teagarden not Salty & Theo & co will not deal either Buch or Masterson nor even Bowden – maybe a low level guy like Pimentel or similar.

I think they are still smirking over “overpaying” for Gagne in 07…

by frenchredsox on Nov 25, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The phrase you’re looking for their is “smarting over overpaying for Gagne.”

Texas and Boston match up well; I doubt the Sox FO is going to cut off it’s nose to spite it’s face over a trade that didn’t work out.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 25, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WTF?

Salty is worth more than any of those 3 pitchers..He has a chance to be a great catcher. I’d take that anyday over potential #3 ceiling pitchers..

by schmosterballs92 on Nov 30, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What Exactly Does "Ceiling" Mean?

Buchholz’s ceiling, actually, is pretty obviously first-ballot HOF. That’s clear to anyone who’s seen him pitch. And this is not just a subjective opinion: pitch/fx data on the spin and rotation of his curve and on the highly unusual movement of his change back up the claims that they are both 70 pitches (the curve might be an 80).

With continued poor fastball command he’ll struggle; with good command he’s a #2 or #1; with outstanding command, what I already asserted. The term “ceiling” says nothing about the likelihood of any of those outcomes.

by emvan on Nov 30, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WTF - WTF?

In February of this year, BA had Buchholz as the Number 4 prospect in the game and 2nd best pitching prospect. BP had him as the number 2 prospect in the game and as the top pitching prospect.

Salty is probably not even going to be a catcher. No team in baseball would turn down an offer of Buchholz for Salty. People need to stop with this crap. The worst part is by June, when Buchholz is dominating again, people will be right back on the bandwagon talking about how special he is…

by alskor on Dec 1, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Er

The Sox supposedly walked away from Masterson for Teagarden. I doubt they’d throw in a prospect to get a guy who’s only projected to be slightly better.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

The Sox arent going to give away young pitching to get a “maybe” solution at catcher like Teagarden – and I like Teagarden a lot. Same goes for Salty – and I like him a lot too. We know what we have in Bowden. Is Salty a catcher? Im not sure. Teagarden gets hurt an awful lot, his bat has question marks and his defense this year was worrisome. Im not sure either is an actual solution at catcher for the Sox.

Personally, I would rather they go for Jeff Clement if they decide to part with one of the pitchers – though I would find another solution and keep the pitchers.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In order...

1) Teagarden 2) Clement & way way down 3) Salty.

Teagarden is a health risk but as good a D Catcher in the minors,Clement would cost WAY WAY too much & as said elsewhere Salty’s size & D means that in all likely hood he will be moved to 1B/3B

by frenchredsox on Nov 25, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have heard bad thing things about Teagarden's defense this year.

And he slumped offensively as well. There are plenty of question marks with him. He seems like the kind of guy who would be perfect IF he was already in the organization. If he was coming up through our minor leagues Im sure they would hand him the job. I just cant see them trading young assets they really like to get him. He’s not a safe solution to the catcher problem.

The best/most realistic option might be handing the job to Teagarden – but its not a particularly good or safe option. That’s why they wont trade Bowden/Buchholz/Masterson for him.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Link?

Is there a link for this reported deal? I hadn’t heard that anywhere. I had heard that the Rangers preferred Teagarden, and had asked for either Buchholz or two of Bowden/ Masterson/ Hagadone for Salty.

A Masterson for Teagarden swap goes against both trends…

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 25, 2008 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll look for the link

But, it’s my understanding that the Sox offered Bowden for Teagarden, the Rangers countered with Masterson, and the Sox walked away.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Link

This is where I read it- it’s by no means an official source, but it’s talked about as if the offers were certainties.

http://rangersreport.realsportsbloggers.com/2008/10/23/is-something-wrong-with-michael-bowden/

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, that’s interesting.

I think the wording is fairly vague; I think it’s possible that the Sox offered Bowden for TT earlier in the year (they’ve been asking after catchers for awhile now) rather than as part of the recent talks with Texas. That would make more sense, since after his breakout Texas looks like they’d rather keep him over Salty.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 25, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LoneStarBall

Alot of talk over at LoneStarBall about Salty to Boston. I think the consensus over their is that Texas wants a Salty for Bucholz deal and Boston wants a Teagarden for Masterson (or maybe Bowden) deal. What would Texas have to add to the Salty/Bucholz deal to get Theo to pull the trigger? Byrd? (Does Boston need a 4th OFer?) A young pitcher?

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Nov 25, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Engel Beltre

would be nice.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, why can't Boston get players like that?

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven’t seen anything nationally that suggests that the Sox are after Teagarden; everything seems to be that they prefer Salty (they’re counting on his upside) and that they’d like to get by with a deal centered around Bowden.

What’s the perspective of Texas fans? Which catcher do they prefer to keep?

I really don’t see the Sox giving up Buchholz as potential young aces don’t come around very often. That said I’ve had a hard time getting a line on what the Texas system would have to offer (along with Salty) to get him. What do Texas fans think a fair trade is?

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 25, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Ranger fans want Teagarden due to his defense. I am sure a Saltalamacchia-Bucholz deal wouldn’t work by itself. How about a Salty + an A ball pitcher not named Main for Bucholz and ???

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Nov 27, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about a trade of Buchholz to St. Louis...

For Yadier Molina. St Louis needs pitching and has Anderson almost ready. I think is fair for both teams.

by LCT on Nov 25, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

just throw in Colby Rasmus. He had a down year follwing being ranked as a top ten prospect – just like Buchholz.

“I think is fair for both teams.”

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you think Buchholz is worth Yadier and Rasmus?

by LCT on Nov 25, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

I think Buchholz is worth way more than Yadier. I think Rasmus is worth more than Buchholz, but Rasmus for Buchholz is a lot more fair than Molina for Buchholz.

Yadier Molina? Really?

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Conservatively estimating Yadier's defense as worth +10 runs over average,

he was 4-5 wins above replacement last season. He was probably more valuable than Justin Morneau.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 25, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Molina

5.2 WARP1 last year – tied for 8th in the majors for a C (Mauer, McCann, Martin, Soto, Navarro, B. Molina, Suzuki, tied with Iannetta).

I think he’s a damned fine player… he’ll be 26 next year, he’s improved every year offensively and is a GG defensively. He would fit a glaring need for the Red Sox, who really have no catcher at all. Does Buchholz have more value? Maybe, but it’s a lot closer than these Red Sox homers would let you know… I think it’s a fair trade myself.

by jc3 on Nov 25, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

replying to Alskor

Then Buchholz is not worth Teagarden because Yadier is way better than teagarden

by LCT on Nov 25, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and everybody said Teagarden is the better of all 4 catchers in TX

by LCT on Nov 25, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he's a more solid bet

than Teagarden, for sure. Im not trying to s*** on Molina – he’s a pretty good player. The Sox wont be giving up Buchholz for him anytime soon though. He’s just not a good enough hitter. A .274/.333/.378 hitter is good for a catcher, but nothing to get excited about. Teagarden has worse contact skills but significantly more power. Molina hits for an awfull empty average.

As for his defense, Im aware he’s a great defender. I just dont put a lot of stocks in defensive metrics for catchers.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I also dont think Molina is a .300 hitter again

So there’s that. So a .260-.280 hitter with OK patience and absolutely no power… that’s a ~.700 OPS player in a good year. His OPS+ in 08 was still only 95 – and he had to get lucky and hit .304 to do it.

I dont care if he’s a great defensive catcher. He’s not saving enough runs to make up for that bat. That’s shockingly little pop – EVEN for a catcher.

You dont trade top ten prospect in baseball pitching prospects in baseball who struggled in their rookie season for catchers who struggle to break a .700 OPS.

Not that it matters anyway because the Sox arent trading Buchholz for anyone.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The old Buchholz for a Texas catcher routine

Classic!

by naropean on Nov 25, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden

Generally people talk about Salty + for Buchholz while the talk is Salty for Masterson + I would be okay with Masterson if I was convinced that he ends up as a middle of the rotation starter rather than as a reliever. And how about Bowden. How do you all see his relative strenghts/weaknesses/value in a potential deal for Salty as compared to Masterson and Bucholz?

by Dalman on Nov 24, 2008 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Personally I think that Bowden will be a bit better: Masterson has 2 good pitches that play well in the pen, but I think Bowden’s total arsenal will be make him a better starter. That said, I think Masterson is better now, and Bowden is going to need a little more time to develop.

Remember that Texas may not be as high on Bowden as they were offered him as part of a (not necessarily THE) Gagne deal… And if they thing Masterson can start (the way the Sox seem to think Salty will stick behind the plate) then a GB pitcher would good for their park.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 24, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

remember

Masterson’s a GB pitcher… he’d probably do fairly well in Arlington. He also profiles as either a #3 or a great late inning pitcher. Both of those things have incredible amounts of value to Texas…

Course, I’m probably on the Masterson bandwagon, if I’m not driving it…

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 24, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Masterson may only have 2 good pitches

but one of them is a sinker that has been called among the best in the majors – and he locates it with deadly precision to either side of the plate and to both lefties and righties AND in any count.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinker + slider = 2 pitches.

That’s my point. Masterson has 2 pitches in his sinker and slider that are better than anything Bowden has, but I think that unless he develops a change to keep LHH honest, he’ll wind up in the pen where his stuff can play up and a pitcher can get away with only having 2 pitches.

I think Bowden has a better chance to start since he has a broader repitorie.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 25, 2008 8:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Luis Exposito

He is one of my sleepers…hits for power, solid D….

by NYSOX on Nov 24, 2008 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Exposito really took a big step forward this year. He’s always had the raw power, but he finally turned it into game power with 22 hr’s in 08. He’s got great game calling skills, an awesome arm, and he’s pretty much top notch all around defensively.
But despite the solid batting average, he really needs to work on his plate discipline (the kid can barely take an intentional walk). If he can learn from the system how to improve his pitch selection, he could be a VERY good major league catcher. I’m very excited to see his progression next year.

by soxkid on Nov 24, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

interested to see your comments on hagadone

obviously BA loves the guy

by Wheelhouse on Nov 24, 2008 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tazawa

Rumors are that he will sign and start in AA. Where does he fit in the Sox Top 10 prospects? Does signing Tazawa mean that one of Bowden, Buchholz, or Masterson is gone?

by Robinson Checo on Nov 25, 2008 12:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Somewhere around 10-15

Here’s my effort (done quickly):

B+ Anderson
B+ Bowden
B Reddick
B Bard
B Kelly
B Kalish
B- Hagadone
B- Exposito
B- Lin
B- Almanzar
B- Navarro
B- Diaz
B- Tejeda
B- Westmoreland
B- Pimental
Middlebrooks
Hissey
Kris Johnson
Derrick Gibson
Mark Wagner
Doubront

Well, to tell you the truth there are even more guys who could be a “B” or “B-.” This system is stacked. Probably the deepest in baseball. The only thing separating it from the top 5 systems is the lack of a true, superstar, can’t miss prospect. I think Lars comes up a bit short of that – though I love him. Tons of high end guys in the lower minors.

I cant even begin to guess where John is going with his rankings. I cant wait to see how many he considered for the list.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uhm, much fewer than you did?

There’s no way Lin, Pimentel, Diaz, and Tejeda have done enough yet to warrant the B- based on John’s ranking history. Exposito is probably just a fringe B-, as well.

If I had to guess, I’d say he gives an A- to Lars, a B+ to Bowden, B’s to Reddick/Kelly, B-‘s to Bard, Almanzar, Kalish, Navarro, Westmoreland, and Exposito, and C+’s to Lin, Pimentel, Diaz, Tejeda, Hagadone, and KJohnson.

Our system is good, but not as good as you’re building it up to be.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2008 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Youre probably right

I can make good arguments for most of those guys, though. They compare favorably with people who have already gotten those grades. I can certainly see Lin and Argenis Diaz getting B-s. Brandon Snyder and Nolan Reimold got B-’s, after all.

On second consideration, I remembered that John did love Lars from the time he was drafted (he was a Twins Shadow Draft pick IIRC).

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ah, forgot the last part

On second consideration, I remembered that John did love Lars from the time he was drafted (he was a Twins Shadow Draft pick IIRC)… so I can see an “A-”

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, Tejeda got a B- last year, no?

That isn’t to say he’ll get it again, but it wouldn’t be unheard of

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by OldProspects on Nov 25, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

slight regression,no ?

Well, Tejeda got a B- last year, no?

.261 /.301 /.347 in A ball seems to lowered his ranking IMO – although very young,it looks that Navarro & Diaz have passed ahead of him on the Red Sox depth list at SS with Kelly also squeezing him from below…I think that Hagadone will be a Joker pick for John – his TJ surgery clearly lost him some time but also his stuff was clearly in the Bowden/Masterson class….I would be interested to see his ranking.

Some major sleepers too include – Rizzo (& his comeback from lymphoma),Huntzinger,Chiang (who played OF in the Olympics),the Aussie Dening who was a NY-Penn League All Star at 20,& lastly Nava who really has had less than 2 seasons of pro ball & hit well & has nice D

by frenchredsox on Nov 25, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

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by OldProspects on Nov 25, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes pretty close....

Although I would say Reddick could be a B+ based on his upside & actual performance.

There are also some guys to consider in the C+ range such as Hunter Jones (although old has done some excellent work in AAA) & Hissey too has the upside.

You are also missing the 08 Ps drafted like Fife/Price who made some nice debuts.Also I would say that Navarro has become a solid B- .348 /.393 / .508 in Lancaster when everyone considered he was a D specialist – he may be fast tracked for late 09/10 season.

Anyways here is how some see these guys – http://www.soxprospects.com/

by frenchredsox on Nov 25, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lancaster

If they had put up those numbers anywhere other than Lancaster, fine. But that park is a joke. To call it a hitters park is an understatement. The Cali league as a whole is great for hitters, but Lancaster specifically is crazy. Navarro’s #‘s while with Lancaster but on the road were .308-.355-.388, pretty much exactly what they were in Greenville and Lowell. I’m not trying to knock him, but its important not to overemphasize what he did in Lancaster. He’s still got the glove, is a 750ish offensive hitter for now.

Reddick also … I think he’s a B+ if he didn’t play in Lancaster, but as he did you have to discount his #‘s a bit (OPS was 894 on road, 1013 at home). Still good #’s, but I think its wroth seeing how he fares in AA before giving him at +.

by jayjay on Nov 25, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Reid Brignac is still making Top 100 lists over one good Cal season.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I agree … and 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

by jayjay on Nov 25, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

on the upside, the Sox left Lancaster. Theyre back in the Carolina League for 09. John Henry purchased the Salem Avalanche – its now the Salem Red Sox.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The argument for the SSs

is also great tools, youth and defensive ability.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Absolutely, Navarro has plenty going for him. But the response was specific to frenchredsox pointing to Navarro’s Lancaster offensive performance. All I said is its important not to overemphasize what he did in Lancaster.

by jayjay on Nov 25, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One Interesting Question

In the 2004 Handbook BA ranked the Sox system 24th. A quick checks indicates that that system has produced more career and 2008 Win Shares than the #1 and 2 ranked Brewers and Dodgers.

So, do you rate Sox prospects (individually or collectively) higher because of the extraordinary track record the system has had over the last five years? Have the Sox in fact implemented a program that does a significantly better job than other teams of realizing the potential of young players? Or have they just been lucky?

And have we already seen this factor into John’s rankings here, e.g., his last year’s Lowrie ranking which in retrospect seems dead-on (Dave Pinto’s PMR had him at +14 runs per 150 games defensively, while the Fielding Bible had him at +22)?

by emvan on Nov 25, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Theyre better

Have the Sox in fact implemented a program that does a significantly better job than other teams of realizing the potential of young players?

Yes, they have. They are cutting edge on every level. Its amazing to watch. They re-think every aspect of player development. I think Sox prospects really are a better bet than most. Its a good reason to bump them up. Theyve implemented a system – a “Red Sox way” that they drill into guys from day 1. They have a comprehensive plan for each player and they monitor them closely.

One example of the Sox leading the way is health:

Opel (Boston): I recall you writing somewhere that you had a theory that Jon Lester seemed to become stronger towards the end of the season, in spite of pitching many more innings than he had ever before, because he had built up stamina when he was pitching in a weakened state in 2007, his “recovery” year. Could you elaborate, and do you think his performance next year will suffer from his 70 inning jump this year?

Will Carroll: Just a theory. I think his 2007 had a “multiplier” in there because he was building stamina at less than full strength and came out fine. The Red Sox have much better data and over the next few years, they’re going to really build an advantage with pitchers unless some other teams catch up. Mike Reinold might end up as valuable as any player on their team by 2012.

http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=547

They are like this in every aspect of their Baseball Ops. Its f***ing amazing. Always hearing about something new theyre doing that’s getting rave reviews. For instance they started an offseason major league transition program that brings the top minor league prospects to Fenway in the winter, lets them learn their way around a major league clubhouse, how to deal with the media, how to tip clubhouse guys, how to interact with teammates, etc… They have a couple major leaguers around and they do seminars for the guys – who also get to know eachother. Last year I think they had Tek and Pedroia go.

Here’s an article:

The Red Sox have developed an instructional manual with guidelines for consistency throughout the organization. It covers everything from how uniforms should be worn to controlling the strike zone from both a hitter’s and pitcher’s perspective.

The development process continues throughout the offseason with instructional programs, including a two-week finishing school at Fenway for players deemed to be within 18 months of making it to the big leagues

“It’s part of an expanded offseason effort to track and nurture our minor league players,” Cherington says. “The two-week program in January is an opportunity for us to work on physical fundamentals and mental goals. It’s an opportunity to introduce them to the city, the ballpark and faces around the ballpark they might come into contact with.”

Players say it pays off.

“Once you get here, you know what’s expected of you,” Ellsbury says. “The biggest thing is teaching guys how to win close ballgames. If you have guys who know how to win, that’s one thing that’s kind of hard to teach. And we’ve had successful minor league teams.”

Papelbon says the attitude in the Red Sox clubhouse fosters a continuation of the maturation process.

“When guys come in here, they realize they’re part of something special,” he says. “We have a great minor league system, but I think what separates us from any other ballclub is our clubhouse atmosphere, the camaraderie and the way we prepare for games every day.”

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-11-10-rankings-redsox_N.htm

Honestly, they are like this in EVERYTHING. They leave no stone unturned in terms of finding better ways to do things. Its a marvel to watch.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

?

So they are far and ahead of everyone else because they give their top prospects a tour of the stadium and the city? it also doesnt hurt that they can spend $150 million on payroll

by FishHead on Nov 25, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Money does not by happiness or success

The Mariners finished in last place in the AL with a $100 million payroll. The Tigers weren’t very good with a higher payroll than the Red Sox. The Yankees again had the highest payroll and finished 3rd in the division. The Mets had a higher payroll than the Red Sox and collapsed ahead of the playoffs in the lesser league. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had the best 3rd-order record in baseball and played in the toughest division in baseball.

The fact of the matter is that the Red Sox are an extremely well run organization that happens to have massive resources AND leverages them correctly. The Jason Bay trade is a perfect example where they will likely end up getting close to the same production they would have gotten from Manny next year except they’ll be paying a lot less money for it.

by Ophidian on Nov 25, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Bay Trade

In acquiring Bay the Sox made the best of a bad situation, but don’t make it out to be some stroke of genius when it isn’t. Manny will outperform Bay significantly this year, and in making the swap the Sox had to pick up the rest of Manny’s 2007 contract and they had to throw in 2 pretty decent prospects in Moss and Hansen.

by Birdfan01 on Nov 25, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Think about it this way...

The Red Sox had to trade Manny, right? If we take that as a given (that he would have been “injured” in Boston or he would have in some other way, not played to his potential) then it might be better to look at this deal as two deals.

Deal number 1: 2008 Manny for 2008 Jason Bay. Pretty much as good as the Sox could have done considering the headache they were dealing with while at the same time still trying to win now.

Deal number 2: 2009 Jason Bay at 7.5 million bucks for Hansen and Moss. You do this deal in a heartbeat.

Obviously there are a couple factors here, such as the necessity that the Sox pay ~$7 million of Manny’s ‘08 contract (1/3 of his salary for the year). But all factors taken into account, especially the fact the Hansen was a pretty big change-of-scenery candidate and Moss as a 4th OF on a team like the Sox, I’m not sure they could have done any better than they did.

The way it looks on paper just isn’t the best way to look at this deal. And besides, the Sox went on and were one game away from the Series.

by whonichol on Nov 25, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not the only one

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7889

First, don’t act like Manny’s mammoth performance down the stretch in LA in the lesser league was going to happen in Boston while he was unhappy with Sox management. He still would have hit pretty well, but the odds are slim he would have put up epic numbers.

By getting Bay, they got a player that is younger, cheaper that isn’t nearly the downgrade from Manny that reputation would tell you. Characterizing Moss and Hansen as “pretty decent” is rather generous.

by Ophidian on Nov 26, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So...

you’re a Red Sox fan I take it.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 26, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

and I wrote that USA Today Article from last week that I quoted above calling the Sox the best organization in baseball. Its all an elaborate plan by me to get “street cred” on minorleagueball.com.

Also, those two championships and 4 ALCS’s in 6 years – All me, baby.

by alskor on Nov 26, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just jerking your chain

after reading your numerous posts in this thread. I don’t disagree with the article, and I applaud your diligence in making sure we all realize how awesome your team is.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 26, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

and we’ve forgotten Tazawa:

Reports coming out of Japan today indicate that the Red Sox are the choice of coveted amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa, a 22-year-old righthander who idolizes Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The Mainichi Daily News said that Tazawa is likely to officially announce next week that he will join the Red Sox. He is expected to sign a major league contract with the Red Sox and begin his professional career in the minor leagues, the newspaper reported.

Nikkan Sports reported that Tazawa has cut off negotiations will all other MLB clubs and that the announcement will be made Dec. 1.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/11/reports_tazawa.html

John was wise to hold off on that list for a week… though Im not high on Tazawa but he probably makes the top 20…

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kalish very underrated propsect

by bryeic on Nov 25, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lots of tools

And I dont think anyone would be surprised if he exploded this year. But until he shows a little more patience at the plate he’s a big question mark.

by alskor on Nov 25, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

Kalish’s career IsoD is .92, which is very good, especially in A ball.

Perhaps you are confusing him with Josh Reddick, who’s career .45 IsoD lines up well with his “hacker” reputation.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 26, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lots of tools
And I dont think anyone would be surprised if he exploded this year. But until he shows a little more ~~patience~~ power at the plate he’s a big question mark.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ooooh... power...

The surgery Kalish had (to remove his hammate bone) is notorious for sapping player’s power in the first year. Both Papi and Wily Mo Pena reported the same thing and they were fine after the first year. Kalish should be good to go next year.

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Nov 26, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs