needs to do a lot less than Balentien to become an above average player. As a CF, the bar’s much, much lower.

But what was the point then?

The post he was responding to said this:

“This isn’t the same as a high ceiling all tools player with performance question marks in short season ball. These are guys who have already shown something at AA or AAA. The first class of guys often do get over valued. Their are lots of guys with potential in the Appy League.”

So I think I was making it pretty clear there are such distinctions being made.

I see he was a 57th overall pick; which is OK but not that high. He’s supposed to have good tools, but 16 SB in A ball is unexceptional, and range factors look downright awful: 2.15 in Stockton and 2.11 in Kane County—that’s in CF, not a corner.

Unless I see something that says scouts are really wowed by this guy and he’s better than expected on draft day, I have a very hard time taking him over:

Dillon Gee: one of the best pitchers I saw this year and a guy who I think will be top 100 next year. No true plus pitch, but several MLB quality pitches; his overall stuff is as good as Helickson, and pitchability has clear upside (only added the CB this year, and showing a very promising new CU as well). Also, MLE FIP of 3.95 this season.

Jenry Mejia: 18 y.o. who sits in the mid 90’s with the FB and throw a plus breaking ball as well, makings of a decent CU, and showed solid command (1.15 WHIP) against much older players in the NYPL.

Jeff Marte: 17 y.o. who had a .930 OPS in the GCL. Sure, Brown is closer, but Marte is almost 6 years younger, and performing against age appropriate competition, and a reasonable SO rate as well.

Josh Thole: 21 y.o. catcher who hit .300/.382/.427 in the FSL, with more BB than SO, then went on to perform well in Arizona, named an all-star there. Good all around defender, though arm a bit below average.

Scot Moviel – big 20 y.o. pitching prospect with big league sinker, promising secondary offerings.

Francisco Pena – 18 y.o. catching prospect holding his own. His dad was a 5 time all start and 4 time gold glove winner at the position—and was physically a late bloomer (his dad wasn’t as good at the same age). I love the projection here.

Bobby Parnell – I don’t see him as a great SP prospect but he brings two plus pitches out of the pen, and has earned raving reviews in that role. I saw 2 independent sources identify him as the most impressive pitcher at the AA Eastern League all-star game, and also impressed in NY. Also turning some heads in arizona. The Mets need this guy in the pen next year.

I’ll consider if there’s really good reason to support it:

Ike Davis – 18th overall pick this year had a disappointing debut, but I still have to think there is as much upside potential there as the 57th overall pick from 2007.

Brant Rustich – has high ceiling stuff, and performed very well when healthy (3.80 MLE FIP), but has had too many injuries. Nothing involving the elbow or shoulder though, and he should be fine for 2009. He was drafted 36 spots behind Brown in 2007, so you can make a case for Brown if you think his stock has risen (or held up) more than Rustich.

Ezequiel Carrera – very similar to Gorkys Hernandez, but a bit less tools, but almost identical season and skills as Gorkys at the same age. Best defensive CF in the FSL this year per the coaches vote, and while he doesn’t have Brown’s power upside, he has better contact ability, steals more bases, was 19 months younger at the same level, and should develop some power.

Maikel Cleto – another guy who sits in the mid 90’s with the fastball at 19 y.o., but he hasn’t really shown signs of having the secondary stuff yet. Not sure if he’s more or less a risk than Brown.

Eddie Kunz – I listed him a bit high, mostly because that’s where he’s been listed. Drafted 15 spots ahead of Brown in 2007, but I don’t think it was a particularly good pick. Solid in AA, melted down in AFL, this year. I think he’ll end up a decent bullpen arm, but not special, and I’d probably deal for a guy like Brown if I could be convinced he really is likely to advance quickly.