Community Prospect List: #69

A .337 / .372 / .459 (AA stats) hitter at the age of 22 in his first professional season is very impressive. Not too mention his plus defensive abilities in CF.

Halman, if he was on. I voted Aumont.

I went with Gio on this poll, but I like Halman, The Shark, Jeffress, Aumont, Salome, Donald, and Coghlan in some order. I don’t see any possible way that Tabata or Gorkys can make The List before Halman or Borbon either.

Dan Cortes is not.

Jeffress is also a worthy candidate and Weglarz too.

Gio has 11 votes too many imo.

Sway me, people.

somewhere in the Top 100. His performance compares pretty favorably to Brignac and Cardenas albeit with less hype and probably tools. I’m referring both to the shortage of MI both on the prospect list as well as in the major leagues.

I know I don’t post around here much, but I feel its about time I make a push on Brad Holt. I feel he’s gotten the short end of the stick in a lot of people’s eyes, partly because the Mets first two picks showed virtually nothing so far this year and partly because its fashionable to bash Mets prospects anyway. Here’s the case for him:

1. The UNC righty didn’t really emerge until he made a meteoric rise up draft boards this past year after going 11-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 95/36 K/BB in 93 IP in his final college season. This is mostly attributable to a significant velocity spike. Going into the year he was projected to be picked towards the back end of the first 10 rounds of the draft, but with every start his stock seemed to rise until he made it all the way to the supplemental first round.

2. Dominated the NYPL going 5-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 96/33 K/BB in 72.1 IP. Granted, he’s already 21, so he probably should have dominated NYPL, and really only needed his fastball to do so, that kind of sheer dominance is still impressive.

3. Working primarily off his fastball in college, his work on a power curve has gotten rave reviews from scouts who say the pitch made significant and noticeable improvements with every start he made, to the point where it was a fairly consistent plus pitch for him by the end of the year. He also flashes a changeup that shows signs of becoming an average offering.

4. He throws mostly 93-96 with plus run and sink on his fastball, and there are rumblings that he touched triple digits in Brooklyn. He’s got a big, classic pitcher’s frame. His mechanics are clean, classic and powerful. He generates a lot of power in his stride, throws with intent, and for what its worth even finishes in solid fielding position.

5. Some people see him moving to the bullpen eventually, but I think this is shortsighted. His curveball has significantly improved and is already showing signs of being a plus pitch, this after he threw more than 90% fastballs in college. On top of that, he really maintains his velocity deep into games, which is really more of a long term difference maker in evaluating a prospect as SP vs. RP. The day before he was drafted, Holt threw 139 pitches for UNC in his final start and was clocked at 94 mph in the 9th inning. IMO, this is a very underrated skill for SP prospects, and one we don’t notice because the pitchers who can’t do it never wind up spending significant time in big league rotations.

6. John Manuel had this to say about him in a recent BA chat without even being prompted by a question, just because he felt the need to express how big a Holt fan he is:

“Since I see no Q’s about him, my single favorite pick of the draft, I think, is Brad Holt. I’m way intrigued by the reports we’ve got, both from within the Mets and outside, of his improved breaking ball, that he flashes a plus, power breaker. He sounds like he might be Mike Pelfrey with a bit less downhill or sink, a better breaking ball and considerably less hype. I bet he makes their draft.”

IMO, on an overall list, I think a case can be made to rank Holt ahead of John Niese (although I know I’ll catch a lot of disagreement on that one). Niese is more polished but has significantly less upside. I know all Holt’s done is use an overpowering fastball to dominated NYPL hitters, which in itself isn’t that unusual, but with his profile and talent, if he continues to have any kind of success in a full-season league, he’ll jump up prospect rankings as fast as anyone in the game next season.

The way I see it, the difference between Samardzija and Holt, while significant, isn’t so big that Samardzija is a candidate (and likely to get voted onto the list soon) and Holt hasn’t even seen time as a tester yet. All in all, Holt probably belongs towards the back of the Top 100, which is why I’ve held off on hyping him here, but I feel like this is right about the spot where he should be included as a tester.

Anderson, LaPorta, etc, and better than Gamel.

tester?

Not just because of John’s B+

Alternating between him and Aumont. I think both should have been on the list already.

Gio? Really?

But it’s getting close to time for Nick Noonan, who I would chose just after Gorkys Hernandez.