Community Prospect List: #67 RUNOFF

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 2:57 PM EST Comment 75 comments

After 411 votes Aaron Cunningham has 17% of the votes and J.P. Arencibia has 16% of the votes. As a result we are having a good old fashioned RUNOFF!!!!!! The poll will end at 200 votes or the next time that pinstripes or myself checks the poll after 200 votes.

1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York-AL)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York-NL)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles-NL)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago-NL)
44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinnati)
45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)
46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)
47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago-AL)
48. BRETT CECIL - SP (Toronto)
49. ALCIDES ESCOBAR - SS (Milwaukee)
50. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - SP (Washington)

51. CHRIS CARTER - 1B/DH (Oakland)
52. CARLOS TRIUNFEL - SS (Seattle)
53. AUSTIN JACKSON - OF (New York-AL)
54. BEN REVERE - OF (Minnesota)
55. MICHAEL BOWDEN - SP (Boston)
56. TYLER FLOWERS - C (Atlanta)
57. ADRIAN CARDENAS - SS (Oakland)
58. REID BRIGNAC - SS (Tampa Bay)
59. JAKE ARRIETA - SP (Baltimore)
60. JORDAN WALDEN - SP (Los Angeles-AL)
61. MICHAEL MAIN - SP (Texas)
62. WILMER FLORES - SS (New York-NL)
63. MATT DOMINGUEZ - 3B (Florida)
64. MICHAEL SAUNDERS - OF (Seattle)
65. DESMOND JENNINGS - OF (Tampa Bay)

66. CARLOS CARRASCO - SP (Philadelphia)

Poll

Who is Community Prospet #67?

J.P. Arencibia

162 votes

Aaron Cunningham

145 votes

307 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 75 comments

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Comments

Thanks, KBR

Just wanted to pause and say the community list has gone very well this year. Thanks, King Billy Royal, for your excellent work.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No worries

I have been glad to help out in this endeavor. I have had a lot of time on my hands recently but things may change a little when I finally go back to work.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

It’s been a lot of fun making this list

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Nov 23, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still waiting...

for someone to give me an example of a catcher with Arencibia’s plate discipline who panned out as an above-average player in the majors, after having asked multiple times. Somehow, once everyone looks past the 27 HR, they can’t find an answer to my question.

by DrunkIrish on Nov 23, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pudge Rodriguez

by wolviex18 on Nov 23, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Benito Santiago

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Manny Sanguillen

by wolviex18 on Nov 23, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sanguillen

not a bad comp. Certainly better than Pudge or Santiago, both of whom were stars in the majors at an age where Arencibia was still in college. Of course, Sanguillen made a lot better contact and had lesser power, and I’m a lot more comfortable with the contact guys getting by without walking than I am a power guy. Big power and no walks just isn’t a profile you see succeed in the majors over the long term very often.

by DrunkIrish on Nov 23, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can you find me a catcher who had Arencibia's minor league profile who fizzled?

Plus plus power, plus defense, plus hit tool, not discipline.

My point isn’t that because you can’t find one it means he’ll succeed. It’s that he’s a rather unique player.

by mraver on Nov 23, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not that Arencibia...

has plus defense, or certainly plus PLUS power, but over the last few polls we’ve talked about several players with similar (but usually slightly better) profiles to Arencibia. None have become above-average major leaguers.

by DrunkIrish on Nov 23, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rod Barajas, Miguel Olivo

They’ve had big league careers, but they suck, due to unacceptable OBPs.

by aap212 on Nov 23, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well...

Olivo at least was a HS kid, and he never came near Arencibia’s power.

As for Barajas, well, he didn’t make it to AA until his 4th ML season, whereas Arencibia made it in his 2nd. If you want to compare seasonal age, Arencibia’s age 22 season is a tick better than Barajas’ due to playing half of it at a higher level while maintaining similar statistical production.

So I’m not sure that either of these two really fit the bill. It’s also not clear whether these guys were as good defensively as Arencibia, who from what I understand should make it to the bigs based on his glove alone, even if his bat never really gets there.

I realize the kid isn’t a sure thing, but his bat really has potential, and I think that plus the positional upside is worth a rating here in the mid-60s.

by mraver on Nov 23, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

biggest problem

people need to stop trying so hard to find a catcher comp, he has such bad plate discipline that i think any hitter who has comparable numbers would be a comp in the sense that he will always just be a bench player, but maybe slightly better because he can catch and be a backup for injury purposes, but he is NOT going to hit in the majors if he walks 20 times in a full season while striking out 100 in the low-mid MINORS

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 23, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Julio Borbon.

"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract

by tyd3311 on Nov 23, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What's the concise argument

for Cunningham here? In the absence of that, I’m voting Arencibia

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The concise argument is, he's consistently hit at an .850 OPS everywhere he's played

and does nothing badly, so he’s not likely to be “exploitable” at the MLB level. Whereas Arencibia could totally fall apart if pitchers throw him a lot of stuff at the edges of the strike zone.

There’s little question that Cunningham is the much better hitter of the two; the question is, is he better enough to cover the sizable difference in value between an average defensive catcher and a good-but-not-great corner OF. I think he is— the 15 runs difference on defense is about 75 OPS points, and I think Cunningham will end up around .800 while Arencibia will probably be below .700.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

good post

by daveh33 on Nov 23, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cunningham

is also far more likely to be a major league player at all. Arencibia has a significantly lower chance of being a marginally better player. Basically, if you compute prospects roughly via:

Risk*Potential=Rating

Then Cunningham’s risk is very low, and his potential only slightly lower than Arencibia’s, so he’s a better prospect.

by OccamsRazor on Nov 23, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

League average starting corner outfielder versus catcher who can't get on base

I take a guy whose floor is Kevin Mench over a guy whose probable outcome is Rod Barajas.

by aap212 on Nov 23, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More precisely

that would be Probability*Potential=Rating.

“Risk” is only accurate if you mean “risk that a player is good,” which while linguistically accurate is a bit confusing.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I see it differently

If you’re looking at ceiling, Arencibia’s is clearly higher.

If you’re looking at expectations — not to rehash what everyone’s said about Arencibia above — it strikes me as more likely that Arencibia is an average MLB C than Cunningham is an average MLB corner OF.

So I still don’t see a compelling case for Cunningham. Maybe I’m overweighting ceiling, but I think that’s valuable on a prospect list.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think ceiling is pretty much worthless as a measurement of a player's value

ESPECIALLY when you’re talking two upper-level guys. I can see it coming into play for rookie-ball prospects where the stats are of questionable value anyway.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

That’s really weird. Prospect lists are all about weighting ceiling against likelihood of performance. The lists that don’t weight ceiling highly for guys in the low minors end up looking really strange, like the pre-Goldstein era Baseball Prospectus list that had Mike Jacobs as a top-20 prospect.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Er...

high minors, not low minors.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you mean something different by ceiling than I do

so I’ll rephrase it: I think a player’s 50th percentile projection is much more important than his 90th percentile projection once you get past the A level.

Once you know a guy is going to have a big league career, it’s much more important to know what kind of career he is likely to have than what kind of career he could conceivably have if everything goes right.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Makes a little sense...

but I think you’re applying it too broadly. Arencibia shouldn’t be penalized because his performance in A+ this year got him a half-season look in Double-A during his first full season in the minors. I don’t think his true level of performance at Double-A is properly defined yet. Next year will be much better for determining his true level in the high minors.

I also think that lost in the talk of Arencibia’s admittedly horrible plate discipline is the fact that his contact skills are far better than Cunningham’s, which cut into the latter’s 50th percentile projection quite a bit. If Cunningham could man CF, we wouldn’t be having this discussion, but the standard for corner outfielders is WAAAAY higher than the standard for catchers. Given positional scarcity and higher ceiling, I prefer Arencibia.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Far better"?

Arencibia struck out in 18.8% of his plate appearances this year.

Cunningham, 22.8%.

Given a standard BABIP rate, that would make Arencibia’s average something like .012 higher. Not exactly earth-shattering, and well within the range of hitter control.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cunningham vs Ethier

I’ve been against Cunningham, but the more I look at the profile, the more I see another former Oakland corner OF who didn’t look to be anything but average corner guy in the majors. How do you think he compares to Andre Either?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Nov 23, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ethier...

Don’t have a huge amount of data to base this on, but from what I’ve heard of Cunningham’s defensive reputation, Ethier is superior defensively. He also maxed out his physical tools in a big way, and is outperforming even the most optimistic projections you could have drawn from his minor league career. You can’t project that as a standard for the guys labeled potential ’tweeners just because Ethier worked out.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ethier is not a great defender; he's projected at 0 runs for next season

He’s also substantially slower than Cunningham, which is a negative for outfield defense. I’d say the odds are very good that Cunningham ends up being the better defensive player.

Offensively, I think they’re very similar profiles.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I'm missing something

First of all, Cunningham has done slightly better across the board than Ethier in the minors, and a significantly better base stealer, despite being a year younger at every level. But even so, Ethier has an OPS+ of 116 in the majors, in Los Angeles. If Cunningham would simply match Ethier, wouldn’t that be worthy of a top-70 prospect status?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 24, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mlb comparisons?

jp = kelly shoppach/josh bard type
aaron = mench/kielty type

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 23, 2008 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And if so

you vote Arencibia

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that should say

and EVEN if so — because I think the comparison undervalues Arencibia

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad comps for JP

Bard and Shoppach have some measure of plate discipline. Arencibia has none whatsoever. Look at his minor league lines and compare them to Shoppach and Bard. Then look at Barajas if you want to see a good comp.

by aap212 on Nov 23, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, those comparisons are just terrible

Shoppach has great plate discipline. Arencibia can’t find a girlfriend because he hates [long] walks.

The comparisons for Cunningham are pretty bad, too, because he’s better than either of them were.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad comparison

Bobby Kielty was in A-ball at age 22 and had a somewhat worse line than Cunningham did at the same age this year between AA and AAA…Cunningham also has much better speed than either Mench or Kielty.

by OccamsRazor on Nov 23, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jp ballot stuffing

it was 57-48 10 secs ago

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 23, 2008 5:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

This is garbage. Cunningham was ahead by 10-15 points earlier.

by OccamsRazor on Nov 23, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And it continues

You can refresh and watch it happening.

by OccamsRazor on Nov 23, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who on earth

cares enough about a community prospect list on a website to go to the enormous trouble of ballot stuffing? It doesn’t make your prospects better.

by OccamsRazor on Nov 23, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The world wonders

And yet, it happens.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's bogus

I promise it’s not me, but this is probably illegitimate.

by slamcactus on Nov 23, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

major stuffing

by eastin on Nov 23, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Time to axe this runoff

and maybe the whole concept of runoffs, because they really seem to encourage stuffing.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This time I agree

There was a pretty big swing there.

by acerimusdux on Nov 23, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw it too

by alskor on Nov 23, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

JP ties it in 2 mins!!!!!!!

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 23, 2008 5:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is an insult to the entire top 100

that arencibia could even make the list at 100 is terrible, he has no future in the marjos and didn’t even put up good numbers in the minors this season, he was good in college as a freshman, congratulations

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 23, 2008 5:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

i don’t think he belongs this high, but he does have a future as at worst a backup. solid defense + power at catcher with no other skills? see – Olivo, Miguel.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 23, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no, that is "at worst"

a backup is illustrious for this guy, being a number 2/pinch hitter is what he aspires to be

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 23, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

since we're talking about JP

how about other 07 draft catchers like canham, donaldson, etc

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 23, 2008 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I dont

even give a sh*t about the stuffing anymore. Just put Arencebia at #67 and Cunningham at #68. Let’s pay more attention to the discussion then the polls because obviously the outcomes of several of these polls has been bogus.

by JPShark on Nov 23, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just signed on...

And this is how it looked after I voted (for Cunningham):

Who is Community Prospet #67?
49J.P. Arencibia 89 votes
50Aaron Cunningham 90 votes
179 votes

I wish people would post snapshots of the polls periodically. Then we’d all have a better idea of when stuffing was likely taking place.

by rhd on Nov 23, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Now...

Who is Community Prospet #67?
51J.P. Arencibia 96 votes
48Aaron Cunningham 91 votes
187 votes

IN about 13 mins, Arencibia got 7 of 8 votes.

by rhd on Nov 23, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

n

Who is Community Prospet #67?
50%
J.P. Arencibia
98 votes
49%
Aaron Cunningham
95 votes

193 votes

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 23, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now...

Who is Community Prospet #67?
50J.P. Arencibia 117 votes
49Aaron Cunningham 113 votes
230 votes

by rhd on Nov 23, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify

The proof that there is stuffing is that in a particular portion of time, Arencibia got 28 votes and Cunningham got 23?

Huh?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 24, 2008 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As an Arencibia backer

The idea that people are stuffing ballots for him is ridiculous.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

(to clarify)

I’m not saying stuffing isn’t going on. I’m saying IF people are stuffing, that’s unbelievably stupid.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I voted JP

just because Paul Thomas bugs me.

by gogotabata on Nov 23, 2008 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

democracy in action!

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Nov 23, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So did I....

I don’t know what it says about me.

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis

by Terry Ryan Jr on Nov 23, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You have wounded me in a deep and personal way

I am now compelled to enter into the woods, wrestle agonizingly with the meaning of my life, and very possibly commit suicide.

I hope you’re happy.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I thought it through better

I’d have voted for Cunningham just to not have to hear about him anymore . .

by gogotabata on Nov 23, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuffing the ballot won't push his OBP above 300 in the majors

So enjoy rooting for the next generation of also-rans in Toronto.

by aap212 on Nov 23, 2008 7:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

lol

i do like cecil/snider, not so much the rest

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 23, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Does it really need to be?

for him to be better than Cunningham

by acerimusdux on Nov 23, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

by supermets on Nov 23, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right now...

the vote is 120-119 with JP in the lead.

If it ends with a 1 to 3 vote differential, I would vote to keep them tied at #67 and then let the next poll be #69.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 23, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

or

you could just give it to cunningham since he won the actual poll before the run-off, why are we doing a run-off when there isn’t a tie?

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 23, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

POLL IS OVER

I am back from dinner and the poll is over at 254 votes. J.P. Arencibia wins by a 51% to 48% margin over Cunningham. New poll will be begin shortly.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 9:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hold up...

I didn’t have a chance to read about the ballot stuffing. I will make a ruling in a moment.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ruling

Cunningham has been declared the winner due to apparent ballot stuffing. In the slight case that the votes were legitimate, J.P. Arencibia has been placed at #68 as to not greatly influence his prospect standing in our list. The new poll is now up.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 23, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Add Julio Borbon

A .337 / .372 / .459 (AA stats) hitter at the age of 22in his first professional season is very impressive. Not too mention his plus defensive centerfield abilities.

by tyd3311 on Nov 23, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs