Community Prospect List: #66
After 292 votes the winner of the poll is Desmond Jennings with 17% of the vote. Christopher Marrero, Michael Burgess & Aaron Hicks are being removed from the poll due to a lack of support defined by having less than 5% of the vote. Christopher Perez, Todd Frazier, Jose Tabata & Jeremy Jeffress will be added to the poll.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York-AL)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York-NL)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles-NL)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago-NL)
44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinnati)
45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)
46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)
47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago-AL)
48. BRETT CECIL - SP (Toronto)
49. ALCIDES ESCOBAR - SS (Milwaukee)
50. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - SP (Washington)
51. CHRIS CARTER - 1B/DH (Oakland)
52. CARLOS TRIUNFEL - SS (Seattle)
53. AUSTIN JACKSON - OF (New York-AL)
54. BEN REVERE - OF (Minnesota)
55. MICHAEL BOWDEN - SP (Boston)
56. TYLER FLOWERS - C (Atlanta)
57. ADRIAN CARDENAS - SS (Oakland)
58. REID BRIGNAC - SS (Tampa Bay)
59. JAKE ARRIETA - SP (Baltimore)
60. JORDAN WALDEN - SP (Los Angeles-AL)
61. MICHAEL MAIN - SP (Texas)
62. WILMER FLORES - SS (New York-NL)
63. MATT DOMINGUEZ - 3B (Florida)
64. MICHAEL SAUNDERS - OF (Seattle)
65. DESMOND JENNINGS - OF (Tampa Bay)
CANDIDATES - Carlos Carrasco, Jeff Samardzija, J.P. Arencibia, Aaron Cunningham, Gio Gonzalez, Dellin Betances, Nick Weglarz, Phillippe Aumont, Christopher Perez, Todd Frazier, Jose Tabata & Jeremy Jeffress
TESTERS - Daniel Cortes(57-2%), Adam Miller(58-1%), Jason Donald(60-1%), Kila Ka'aihue(61-4%) & Angel Salome(61-3%), Kyle Blanks(62-3%), Michel Inoa(62-4%), Martin Perez(62-4%), Daryl Jones(62-2%), Andrew Lambo(63-4%), Greg Halman(63-2%), Jeff Niemann(63-0%),David Cooper(63-0%), Nick Noonan (64 - 3%), Beau Mills (64 - 3%), Jacob McGee (63 - 4%), Aaron Poreda (64 - 2%), Aaron Hicks(65-4%), Michael Burgess(65-3%) & Christopher Marrero(65-1%)
NOTE: I have listed by each tester the last time they were on a poll and the percentage of votes they obtained. This should help us with selecting who should be placed back on the poll etc
0 recs |
81 comments
Comments
Arencibia
I still need to be convinced that he’s a top 100 prospect. I’d take pretty much everyone on the candidates and testers list over him.
I just can’t see him having a successful big league career.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
his downside is a ML backup?
That alone puts him in the top 100 IMO.
by mraver on Nov 22, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
I’d rather have a guy with the potential to be an ace/star, but the downside of never getting out of AA than a guy whose downside is ML backup.
A ML backup doesn’t mean a guy is good.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, but it does if that's his floor
His ceiling is 30 HR power and plus defense behind the plate. I believe that would be a “star”.
by mraver on Nov 22, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Find me...
the list of guys who can hit 30 HR in the majors while walking <5% of the time. Cross Alfonso Soriano off that list. How many are left?
Arencibia had a 3.5% BB% last year. He will never carry the power he flashed this year to the majors unless he becomes a completely different hitter.
by DrunkIrish on Nov 22, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In my quest to keep people from fowling up the list...
with an Arencibia pick this early, here’s what I posted late in the last poll regarding JP’s similarity to Rod Barajas and Miguel Olivo:
…[Olivo] never appeared on a BA top 100 list. Neither did Barajas, despite the fact that both he and Olivo were equal or better at the plate to Arencibia. Both were also considered plus defenders.
Minor league career:
Barajas: .290/.328/.474 105:339 BB:K
Olivo: .284/.350/.462 134:320 BB:K
Arencibia: .285/.318/.481 32:157 BB:K
Players with Arencibia’s plate discipline that aren’t young with outstanding tools don’t belong on a list like this. The fact that JP’s a catcher should help him land at the end of the top-100, but there are handfuls and handfuls more deserving picks right now.
by DrunkIrish on Nov 22, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career numbers...
are a terrible way to evaluate a player with 2 minor league seasons, when almost a third of his at-bats came in a season where he was rehabbing a bad back.
Catchers with 30hr power are pretty rare. His downside right now is probably something like .260/.290/.430, which is still valuable. His upside, on the other hand, is very, very high.
by slamcactus on Nov 22, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.260/.290/.430
is not even close to valuable. Even for a catcher. And his downside is lower than that anyway.
His upside is pretty high, but I can’t see him reaching it. I see him as a guy who will have a OBP of .290 every year. It is impossible for a player like that to be valuable, unless they are a terrific defender. Even then, he’ll only be a backup catcher. Backup catchers should not be top 100 prospects.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
A .720 OPS out of a catcher who plays solid defense isn’t too bad. Kurt Suzuki put up a .716 OPS this year and while he’s not going to find his way to the All Star game any time soon, he’s going to hang around as a starting catcher for a while.
“I see him as a guy who will have a OBP of .290 every year”
You mean he’s never going to improve? Not even a little?
I think people are being a little too harsh on Arencibia. The fact that Barajas and Olivo (two players who have stuck around a long time in any case) didn’t turn out to be star players shouldn’t be held against Arencibia. Considering that catchers tend to have a slightly delayed maturation rate, Arencibia’s performance level looks decent enough. And the scouting reports are pretty good. Even a slight improvement in patience at the plate (which seems reasonable to expect) stands to have a significant impact on his performance – he’s got the raw tools to make it happen.
by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OPS overvalue SLG%
Kurt Suzuki’s .716 OPS is OK(not good, but decent) because he had a .346 OBP.
A .720 OPS would not be that bad if it was based on a .350 OPB. Because it is based on a .290 OBP, it is terrible.
Maybe he will improve a little, maybe a .300-.310 on base at his peak. But that’s still not good enough to be a top 100 prospect.
It seems that every argument for Arencibia is that he might not very below average. That doesn’t make him good.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, but I know how OPS works
“It seems that every argument for Arencibia is that he might not very below average. That doesn’t make him good.”
No, it’s because people are obsessed with talking about his floor. If you would like to talk about what he “might” be, I could easily say that he “might” be an All Star caliber catcher. He has that kind of upside certainly, and while he needs to refine his plate discipline a bit, the fact that he’s managed to produce very well despite issues there suggests that even moderate improvement (which is a lot easier to forecast out of a catcher than predicting some toolsy teenager in A ball to learn how to hit, for example) will pay off big.
Observation #1: Arencibia is already a pretty good hitter. The stats say this. The scouts say this.
Observation #2: Catchers take longer to develop than other position players.
Observation #3: Players with power tend to develop plate discipline rather than the other way around.
I’m not suggesting he’s the best prospect or even necessarily the best catching prospect in the game, but considering that he’s done quite well for himself thus far only a year removed from the amateur game, I’d say this guy is looking pretty good.
by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kurt Suzuki's .716 OPS was compiled in the second-toughest hitters' park in the majors in 2008
He was very nearly a league-average hitter in the context of his run environment, and well above what a league-average catcher would have hit in said environment.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2008 3:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude are you serious?
He had an .821 OPS at home, a .612 OPS on the road, again homer comment. You spew nonsense dude. In 2007, he slugged .388 at home, .427 on the road (233 avg, v 264 avg). It is absolutely stupid that you talk about crap that you don’t know about your own team’s players. Wow…
by killa on Nov 23, 2008 3:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm retarded
Drunk rant derived, off of misreading numbers, yet, strangely, reporting them correctly…I’m a complet a** for this one, but you’re still a homer:) Again, my apologies, as I was obviously wrong…man, where’s the edit feature when you need it?
by killa on Nov 23, 2008 4:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Supermets...
The average AL catcher hit .258/.322/.393 last year. The .260/.290/.430 statline puts Arencibia at close to league average offensively (weighting OBP more than SLG) with solid defense. If he never learns to walk and can’t hit for a high average, he’s still almost a league average catcher. If he does improve his secondary skills a little bit such that he can push that up to about .280/.320/.480, he’s crazy valuable. That’s a good prospect.
by slamcactus on Nov 22, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
A good prospect. Not a great prospect. Not top 100, and certainly not 66.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Splitting hairs...
For me, a guy with a low-end projection of league average and a high-end projection of perennial all-star who’s already hitting well in Double-A is usually going to rank significantly higher than 66 (I’ve been voting him for awhile). Of position players not yet listed, only Halman has higher upside, and he has far more flaws than Arencibia.
by slamcactus on Nov 22, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
except I dont see anyone giving Arencibia a “high-end projection of perennial all-star.”
Most “perennial all-stars” walked more than 2-4% of the time in the minors – even catchers. Forget position – we’re talking about a deeply flawed hitter who has such a serious red flag issue that you have to be seriously concerned whether he has the contact skills to survive in MLB.
That said, he should be on this list soon…
by alskor on Nov 22, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For instance
Goldstein:
Perfect World Projection: An everyday big-league catcher, with some moderate star potential.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7031
That’s not quite the same as “perennial all-star.” Ive yet to see anyone say anything like “perennial all-star” – and even if they did I would be calling B.S.
by alskor on Nov 22, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
Most of what I’ve seen wasn’t very high on his defense either. It sounds like he’ll remain behind the plate, but probably be a bit below average defensively as well. That’s a solid prospect. I’m just not sure it’s good enough to rank here.
Where does Byan Anderson rank? He’s a better defender, will be a solid catcher, was 21 this season and had a .797 OPS between AA/AAA.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wrong
by most accounts arencibia is a plus defender.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 22, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Links?
Your entitled to your opinion. But if it’s “most accounts” I’d like to see some of them.
Per The Diamond Cutter:
If you are looking for the next gold glove catcher, Arencibia is not your man. However if you are looking for adequate catcher with a big bat, well then look no further. Arencibia is a little below average behind the plate but he should be ok if he stays back there. Has plus raw power that can help people forget about his defensive woes and if his bat becomes big enough a move to DH may not be a bad idea.
Per Scouting Book:
A big, strong right-handed hitter from Florida, Arencibia is a catcher of the offensive variety, though he does have a strong throwing arm to go along with his bat. He’s also got a great personality for leadership and should be able to handle a pitching staff if he can stay behind the plate
Per Baseball America
Arencibia’s defensive work is improving this fall. The draft report coming out of Tennessee indicated that there were questions as to whether he could remain behind the plate as a pro, but he’s put that idea behind him. He threw out 33 percent of the runners who attempted to steal off him during the regular season.
“(I’m) just getting better in every aspect,” Arencibia said, “working on every pitch, making every pitch a priority that I catch … people are starting to realize that I can be a good defender.”:
He may be improving, but I have yet to see where his defense was called a plus.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA...
is the only one of those sources that’s at all recent, and I have no idea who the other 2 are. Is there any reason The Diamond Cutter’s input should be valued any higher than any random poster here? I’m not insulting the guy, just wondering. If he’s got scout connections, that’s one thing, but if he’s just filtering the same info we are, I don’t really care what he wrote about Arencibia 9 months ago.
BA’s got him as a virtual lock to stick behind the plate, having made dramatic improvements since draft day. Catcher defense is really tough to evaluate with anything other than dozens and dozens of in-person viewings, but everything I’ve heard is solid-positive.
by slamcactus on Nov 22, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From BP's AFL preview
10/07/08
…Arencibia (Desert Dogs), who hit a combined .298/.322/.527 between the same two levels. There are some holes in his game—taking only 18 walks, and defense that, while projectable due to his athleticism, is not not quite there yet—
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7870
by alskor on Nov 22, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In addition
An older comment – and his defense has certainly improved, youre right – BP had this to say in their 2008 preview of him:
Scouts are mixed on his ability to stay behind the plate
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7031
So, its not out of left field… the questions were there.
by alskor on Nov 22, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just grabbed the first few relevant ones on google
Some of them are probably filtering the same information. But the claim was that “most” accounts had him a plus defender.
But, if the consensus coming out of the draft was that it was uncertain if he could stay behind the plate, I’d be surprised if the consensus were now that he is a plus defender. And if so, I’d just like to see some of those sources.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
per Baseball America
Q: Sean from London England asks:
Where do you rank JP Arencibia among catching prospects and what probability do you see for him sticking at the position. Could you also provide an ETA given the team’s lack of depth at the position? Thanks.
A: Matt Eddy: For most, Arencibia probably ranks among the top five catchers in the minors, and certainly behind Wieters, but aside from that it depends on your take on Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, Buster Posey, Jason Castro and Kyle Skipworth.
Matt Eddy: Arencibia is a stone-cold lock to stick at catcher — he’s a plus receiver, thrower and leader — and he should be up by the end of the 2009 season.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Nov 22, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is
Castro and Skipworth aren’t even being considered this high(nor should they be). Arencibia shouldn’t be either.
by supermets on Nov 23, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah.
But in this case, it was pretty representative, and much easier. Since you didn’t bother (or looked, and then decided it didn’t prove your point) dig deeper, here’s the first try at AA for each of them:
Rod Barajas (age 23): .318/.354/.488 24BB:73K in 510 AB
Miguel Olivo (age 22): .306/.381/.479 40BB:66K in 359 AB
JP Arencibia (age 22): .282/.302/.496 7BB:55K in 262 AB
Any way you slice it, Arencibia has repulsive plate discipline and has only looked like a plus hitter for half a season, when he was a 22-year old college player in A+. He’s an awful choice right now, and those who can look past home runs to see the entire package can clearly see it.
by DrunkIrish on Nov 22, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Went with Cunningham
He looks like a pretty sure bet to hit, he’s had success at high levels, not too old and he is ready.
by wobatus on Nov 22, 2008 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
He’ll be a 20/20 guy playing decent to above-average defense. Baseline somewhere around .290/.350/.450, peaking at .310/.400/.500 in his best seasons.
by OccamsRazor on Nov 22, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So did I.
I don’t love Cunningham. However, when a guy hits at every level and carries it to the majors at a young age, you have to give him a lot of credit. Cunningham’s as sure a thing as there is on this list, and he’s got more upside than he gets credit for.
by DrunkIrish on Nov 22, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I went with Frazier
good production from SS, and in a pitcher’s league… he is good here.
almost went cunningham, but i like frazier a bit better
by daveh33 on Nov 22, 2008 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Frazier
Yeah, he plays at shortstop…. but he isn’t a shortstop. Good production for sure, but he is likely a 3B/LF.
by dougdirt on Nov 22, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, i read that
i still like his bat here… how muscular is he?
is he still 6’4" 220 or so?
by daveh33 on Nov 22, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Went Perez here
fastball that sits in mid-90s, with movement, and a plus slider. Easy path to the majors (like: he’s there already), and has racked up more than 1 K per H+BB throughout his minor league career.
Compared to Samardzjia, he’s got a much better track record in the bullpen, and his stuff is every bit as good.
by siddfynch on Nov 22, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
In the pen
True, Perez may have faired better in the pen to date, but Samardzija has already had moderate success in the pen at the highest level (in a modest sample, of course). So why not take the guy who, at the very least, has an outside shot of being a successful starter?
by ajake57 on Nov 22, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 (sort of)
I like Samardzija but I am a big Perez supporter (I believe I was the first one on this site to post about him!!!!!!!!!!). He has Johan like stuff according to some scouts and projects to be a frontline starter. Sure he is young but in the back end of the 100 list, it doesn’t really matter to me. UPSIDE BABY!!!!!!!!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 22, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh wait
I meant Martin Perez. ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 22, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Melky Cabrera had better minor league numbers
Seriously, what is it about Tabata that gets people to actually like him? The guy has never done anything at any level of play.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 22, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pirates
After the trade he was great.
by supermets on Nov 22, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He also...
has a really high ceiling and did decent at in Double A as a 20 year old.
by joegonzo on Nov 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like a low ceiling guy to me
I’ve looked at the videos of this guy on you tube and I wonder wherer the high ceiling speculation comes from. He doesn’t seem all that toolsy or projectible to me.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which led to... a whopping .723 OPS for the season
Wow, man, that’s freaking awesome.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 22, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Kind of a homer vote from me, but the guy tore apart AA as a 19 year old after the trade. Of course it’s a small sample size, but before the deal everybody was saying he just needed a change of scenery. His time with Altoona seems to support that.
by jseiner on Nov 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His OPS...
after the trade was 964. He tore up the same league after he was traded which suggests that a change of scenery was needed.
by joegonzo on Nov 22, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or that there was a small sample size and he had a hot streak at the end of the year.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 22, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Weglarz
This time next year, he’ll be looking like LaPorta but with more walks and slightly better D.
by gogotabata on Nov 22, 2008 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jeffress
Prediction: BA and BP both have Jeffress at least 25 spots higher than this point.
by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He should have been in the 40's
I have Samardzija one spot higher, but Jeffress is next for me.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Nov 22, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gio Gonzalez
should not be on a poll right now.
He does not belong in the top 100 at all in my opinion.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on Nov 22, 2008 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
He ERA was high due to a few crappy outing. His K/9 and other BAA were still very good in AAA. He had less than a hit per hitting.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
His ERA was high due to him walking a batter approximately every two innings in the minors.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 22, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He started off bad.
Once he settled in he pitched pretty well from there on out. His ERA and walk rate were bloated from the ruff start. His K:BB ratio was nearly 3:1 in his last 10 starts.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also his home/road splits were night and day.
In 60 Inning at home he had a 2.09 ERA with a .160 BAA
In 62 Inning on the road he had a 6.32 ERA with a .293 BAA
He got lit up a few times against the Colorado AAA team.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Not impressed. Stats not good, stuff not as good as advertised.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 22, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His stats this year dropped a bit yes.
But hes still striking out 9+ per 9IP and giving up less hits per inning pitched. He still has a bit of a walk problem but nothing that cant be over come.
Also how was his stuffer advertised? Most of his starts I watched his FB was 90-93 with a great curve and decent change.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His average fastball was 89.7
Not sure how that’s 90-93. I did think his curve was very good, but not his change…wasn’t that good in my opinion. I see him as a poor man’s Ollie Perez. Does that make him top 100? I dunno. Maybe.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 22, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well that 89.7 prob from Pfx Data.
I just went buy what I saw on the TVs broadcast Radar gun. So theres gonna be a little difference. Even so… average FB of 90 from the left side is plenty good enough to get people out. With his curve he should be a #2 starter for his ceiling. I basically see his has a good young version of Zito when he was pitching well with the A’s.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also thats average speed.
Not sure why your implying that, that’s as hard as he throws. He can dial it up ot 93-94 when he needs to.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that doesn't really matter too much
average fastball velocity is waaayyyyyyy more important to our analysis than what he might able to do a little bit of the time.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on Nov 22, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Point taken.
But is a 90MPH FB for a lefty a bad thing? No I think not. He has the stuff to be a pretty good starter if he can improve his command.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Nov 22, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it?
The guys who learn to take something off more often than not usually get better results.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you mean
like a changeup?
Fastball velocity is quite important, and I think your commentapplies more to pitchability or having a good feel for pitching.
I am not a fan of Gonzalez and I think simply looking at him piling up strikeouts allows for misleading analysis. I’ve been trying to find some info on his fastball and its movement but I haven’t really found much, but looking at his numbers it would seem he most likely throws a fastball without much movement. He doesn’t have the plus velo to blow hitters away and this forces him to pitch outside of the zone alot which is why he has always posted a high walk rate in the minors. He has an excellent curve which allows him to post the dominant strikeout rate but th walks have always been there, and it’s my belief that they probably won’t just magically disappear.
I know its a small sample size, but I believe the rate stats he posted in his time at the MLB level are going to be similar to what he is capable of long term. Obviously he won’t last long walking over 6.5 per nine and I imagine that will come down, but I can’t see it going under 4.5 or 4. I think his k’s fall from a batter an inning down to maybe 6.5 or 7. All in all I see a guy who will struggle keeping an ERA below 4.75-5, posting even a slightly below average walk rate, and keeping the ball in the park.
Of course, move him to the NL and all bets are off .
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on Nov 23, 2008 4:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No I mean on the fastball
I’m not sure I really buy that “he can dial it up to 93-94 if he wants to”, but if I did, I might consider that useful. And I’d especially like to know if he could still do that in the 7th and 8th innings. On the other hand, if the truth is more that he can hit 93 or 94 now and then, but only on a good day, on a few pitches in early innings, that’s another thing.
I don’t know that average FB velocity really always tells you all you need to know, though. I agree velocity is very important, especially for projecting prospects. It’s just makes the secondary stuff that much better when you have a good MLB FB to pitch off.
But, once you have the talent, it’s usually not about throwing it all the time at top velocity. There are lots of reasons a guy might not regularly throw his hardest pitch. He might throw a two-seamer, which should be 2-3 mph less than the four seamer. He might throw a bit of a cutter now and then, taking velocity off to add some movement.
And some of the best pitchers change speeds on everything. They don’t just throw the FB 92 and the CU 84. They throw one FB at 89, and the next at 92. A CU at 86, followed by another at 83.
As for Gio, you’re right that he needs to get the walks down. He did have solid over all peripherals in 2007, and 2005, and was supposed to be a good control guy when drafted, so it’s not out of the question he can do that. But, if the problem is really that his stuff just isn’t good enough for him to have any confidence throwing strikes with it, then improvement gets to be a lot less likely.
by acerimusdux on Nov 23, 2008 6:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Banging head against wall
Saying Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Carrasco. Seriously, what is there stopping him from being on by now. He has a good k/9, supresses hits, and has good control at AA/AAA at the old age of 21. He is very close to MLB ready right now and is really not that far from his potential either. He does not even have any serious injury history to worry about. I am wondering what the case is against him, anybody?
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 22, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Carrasco
he’s next after Aaron Cunningham for me. Mostly because Cunningham’s a hitter and lower-risk.
by DrunkIrish on Nov 22, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
im kinda same
i’ll take either over arencibia.
by daveh33 on Nov 22, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
POLL IS OVER
At 223 votes Carrasco is the winner with 15. Cunningham and Arencibia are next with 13. New poll will be posted shortly.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 22, 2008 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm a little
surprised that DeJesus has not at least been tested yet. He is the same age as Cameron Maybin playing SS/2nd base and put up better numbers then Cameron in the same league. Sure he struggled in the AFL but he has come to life in the Puerto Rican league. Unlike Frazier his future is that of an middle infielder. Twenty One year old’s who put up an OBP > 400 don’t grow on trees.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 22, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dude
For all we know DeJesus was a fluke.
If he doesn’t hit for average, he’s pretty bad. He has above-average speed and discipline, but he’s riding on one good year of hitting for average and he has no power.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 22, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I added him but I doubt he gets any support.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Nov 22, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like him
He was one of the more impressive guys in the futures game, I thought.
He doesn’t have Maybin’s ceiling, but some under rate the value of good defense on the middle infield. Some of the other guys discussed at SS so far haven’t been such good defenders. De Jesus looks like he should be a solid all around player.
But, if his not looking good in the AFL his stock will slip some. I think he still makes it before 100.
by acerimusdux on Nov 22, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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