Worst system in baseball?
by NYSOX on Nov 20, 2008 12:59 PM EST
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PrintAfter seeing the BA top 10 list of the Tigers and realizing just how bad that system is..I started thinking about the worst systems in baseball..a few others come to mind such as the Astros, the Dbacks(after all recent graduations) as well as the Tigers(who I feel might be the worst if not for Porcello) I was wondering what are some other opinions of others on this site of the worst systems in baseball
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Pirates
Not a whole lot there after McCuthen and now Alvarez
The Pirates’ system has no pitching. Duke Welker might be the best arm in the system right now, but they might be middle of the pack as far as position players. ’Cutch and Alvarez are both top-25 guys, and Tabata, Ford, Romak and Friday could all at least make some impact at the major league level, some obviously more likely than others.
Wow...
Duke Welker is not the best pitcher in the system. Here are few few that are better: Brad Lincoln, bryan Morris, Robert Miller, Anthony Watson, Justin Wilson, and Jeff Sues.
really?
that’s the important question? will He give them a good grade, take the blinders off, it’s a scary world out there, but it’s about time
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
I would...
at least give them a B-. Sorry, but I really do not care what grade he gives them, I am more wooried about what he thinks their ceiling looks like. Right now I could see Lincoln, Morris, and Miller developing into number 2s and Wilson and Watson becoming 4 or 5s.
Well
I think The Pirates are safe in the worst system argument. Alvarez and McCutchen alone give them a Top 2 to rival all but 5 or so teams, and that’s important. That said, to at give the guys you listed as at least B- is a bit of a stretch to me.
First team that came to my mind
They just don’t have a whole lot as an opposing divisional team fan that worries me in the future too much.
Most definitely
I’m a Stros fan and it pains me to say it, but it is definitely true.
Remeber when...
Everyone was like, “Hey, the Astros should try to get Peavy!”, and then their GM was like, “Yeah… we’ll try, but I don’t think we have the, uh, kind [read: quality] of prospects they’re looking for…”
I thought that was pretty funny.
Astros
I think its the Astros…no top tier guy like as mentioned before Pittsburgh and the tigers have..
Castro?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Castro
Just not sure he is that star..maybe # 1 in that system..but is he top 100 in all baseball?
not even close in my book.
though others may disagree on that part – but i don’t think anyone will be able to make an argument with a straight face that he is top 100.
free chris getz!
the funniest thing is, they might be better this season
I think the Astros are probably the worst hands down, but look at who their top prospect was last year, yikes some low-ceiling catcher that i basically hadn’t even heard of until a year ago
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
Pirates
The Pirates system isn’t that bad.
I’d go with the Astros. Followed by the Padres and White Sox.
by Angels and Demons on Nov 20, 2008 1:23 PM EST reply actions
Really?
Padres still have Kyle Blanks, Jaff Decker, Will Inman, Steve Garrison….not terrific but hardly on par with the Astros. The White Sox have Poreda, Beckham, Jordan Danks. Astros are incredibly bad compared to even these fairly weak systems.
The Mets’ system is pretty bad once you get past F-Mart and Niese. They have a few young guys but I think they’re easily bottom 5.
Pads and Mets
Padres also have Kullbacki and Hunter, hope for an Antonelli rebound (slim hope, but hope!) and Mitch Canham may be good.
As for the mets, they may have 3 top 100 prospects (w/ niese/f-mart/flores), so I think its unlikely they’ll be bottom 5 with that many top prospects. Plus, Holt/Mejia/Marte/Carp/Parnell (which all have garnered SOME attention). Granted, it certainly is not a deep system. After about 10, it gets really shallow with lots of fringy stuff starters, power relievers, young kids w/ tools but no production.
Mets
The Mets system has improved greatly. I could see the Mets being top 20. Not likely, but probably around 22ish.
I suppose
Flores is so far away I have a hard time projecting him. Carp certainly has potential, but guys like him aren’t uncommon. Niese is fringe top 100 to me. It’s not the worst system by any means, however.
The Mets system is very nice looking from A ball and below, People like Flores, Holt, Marte, and Mejia are just the tip of the iceberg really, they just need 2 years for some of these kids to develop and the Mets system could potentially be in the Top 5 of baseball.
The problem with the Mets system is there isn’t much in immediate help coming, since the prospects we are talking about are so young, and the pieces they do have in the high minors don’t have elite upside, outside of F-Mart (And maybe Murphy, but he graduated).
by adropofvenom on Nov 20, 2008 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Not only that...
But San Diego did really well in this year’s international signing period, snagging 4 of the top 14 (by ESPN’s standards) Latin American prospects (Portillo, Domoromo, Aristy, Tavarez). Meanwhile, a team like Houston has all but given up on international signing, and that hasn’t exactly helped their cause in improving their farm system.
International signings
They actually made a decent effort this year. They dropped a quarter million on Chia-Jen Lo earlier this month, made a big offer for Rafael Rodriguez (who eventually signed for better than $2M), signed Darwin Rivera for $320K, and made some other decent signings. They’re much more involved in the Latin markets than they were a year ago, when there efforts were basically signing whoever they could for as little as they could. They’re holding showcases/camps for the better prospects now and hired Glen Barker a year ago to oversee their scouting in the Pacific (an area they didn’t scout at all a year ago).
I’m not going to argue that they’re not the worst system right now. They were 29th last year (BA dropped the White Sox to 30th after the book went to press) and most of their top 10 either graduated (Bourn, Towles), were traded (Gutierrez, Reineke), or were injured (Paulino, Flores). Out of the guys that remain, Iorg was mediocre and old, Einertson looked more like a guy without a long-term position, and Brad James was mediocre when healthy. Bud Norris was the only top 10 guy that really stepped up this year, though he had injury issues himself.
On the bright side, I think the system is on it’s way up. They had a pretty decent draft and should continue having good drafts with Bobby Heck in charge. As the club continues making progress internationally and the recently-drafted players progress, the system will look much better. In the short-run, though, it doesn’t look good.
by astrosfan76 on Nov 21, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
f-mart
i don’t know who is doing the mets list this year for BA (actually i’m sure it’s usually the same, i just don’t know who it is), but i wouldn’t be at all surprised if Flores and Holt are in their top 3, possibly either ahead of F-Bust. He doesn’t deserve the patient anymore, his reign will soon come to an end. I’m not that high on Niese either, seems very low ceiling
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m so out of patience with a guy who posted a 772 OPS in AA, at the age of 19. Yeesh, I’m so sick of waiting for this teenager to show a spark of being a ballplayer. Perhaps if he was in Low A like the rest of his peers putting up a better line, we’d have him in the Top 20, because he’d be a shiny new toy as opposed to the guy who didn’t outclass older, more mature players.
Tigers system
The Tigers system will look much better a year from now when after Casey Crosby and Cale Iorg put together huge breakout seasons in 2009.
Crosby
Reports are that he was extremely impressive in Instructional League and touched 97 mph with his fastball.
Diamondbacks are light years ahead of Houston and Detroit
Even with all their graduations, I’ll take Zona’s system over Houston’s in a heartbeat.
Cardinals
They have depth with position prospects, with Rasmus, Wallace, and Jones, but they have a bottomless black pit when it pertains to the area of starting pitching. Its awful.
Richard Castillo
Not close to the majors but looks promising.
+1
Cards are the worst, but they’re definitely in the discussion. A very weak system overall, IMO.
I totally disagree
Brian Anderson, Todd, Garcia, Jay, Rasmus, Jones, Motte, … they’ve got some pretty good talent there. Some real gaping holes too (notably middle infield) but they’re at least in the 11-20 range.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Middle infield?
You missed sleeper prospect Pete Kozma . . .or at least as much a sleeper as a guy a year removed from the first round of the MLB draft can be
I'm not a fan of Kozma
However, I did miss the 3B group— Wallace, Freese, Craig.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Depends who you ask
Braves, A’s, Marlins, Rangers in some order. Orioles near the top, Giants too.
Whoops
Definitely. Top 5 is probably Braves/A’s/Marlins/Rangers/Rays, though we can argue about the ordering.
+1
rangers and A’s are top 2, the Rays are close and I’d have to think more after that, braves and marlins might be up there, but red sox probably have a good overall group with a very DEEP system if nothing else, as I am typing this I am trying to figure out why the braves would actually be good, who is their top prospect even? I can’t really even think of any major impact guys and is their system even deep?
A’s took a hit losing Carlos Gonzalez btw too
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
Heyward, Tommy Hanson
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
that would be the answer (heyward)
why is hanson’s name in the same proximity of a top 5 prospect?
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
You said major impact guy
I think Hanson is at least a top-30 prospect, making him a decent #1 prospect for a team and an outstanding #2
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
Gonzalez was no longer prospect-eligible...
In point of fact, none of the guys they traded for Holliday were. Gonzalez and Smith are “zero-plus” players, Street has 4 service years.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Wasn't saying
They’re the best. I was saying they’re somewhere near the top. Having the best prospect in baseball and three terrific SP prospects gets you points.
Theyve come a long way
but I dont think anyone would put them in a discussion for best system… and really, they should be mentioned in the same breath as the A’s or Rangers… those two systems blow them away.
Damn
they should be mentioned in the same breath
Should NOT be mentioned in the same breath. NOT be. Sorry.
Well....
I agree those are two of the top systems (I don’t think the Braves are far behind) but if I had to rank them, Orioles would be top 10. They have absolutely dynamite pitching coming up with Tillman/Matusz/Arrieta/Erbe. Only the Giants, A’s, and Rays have anywhere near the same pitching prospect depth/quality.
Top-10 yes
But not top-3
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
If you just look at the top 3 or 5, the Os are right there
But their system bottoms out quickly.
I would take...
the Rangers. Elvis Andrus, Justin Smoak, Martin Perez, Neftali Feliz, Engel Beltre, Max Ramirez, Derek Holland, Taylor Teagarden, Micheal Main, Marcus Lemon, Julio Borbon, and Neil Ramirez.
Overall, I have to agree
I think a lot of Rangers prospects are severely overrated as individuals. But, christ, there are so many of them. I expect their gaggle of low-minors arms to spit out 2 or 3 legitimately good pitching prospects, which is more or less a full rotation when you combine it with what they already have in the upper minors in Feliz, Holland and the other lesser lights. Hitting-wise they’re a bit thinner but Ramirez is going to rake eventually and Andrus, while low-upside, looks like he’ll eventually be a plus MLB starter at shortstop once you account for defense. Smoak makes every A’s fan annoyed that they won the final game of the year in 2007.
I think the A’s have a slight edge in pitching, but the Rangers have a somewhat larger edge in hitting.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
A's are good too...
with Adrian Cardenas, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Michael Inoa, Aaron Cunningham, Sean Doolittle, Jemile Weeks, Brett Hunter, Chris Carter, Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, and James Simmons. It is not as good as the Ranger’s but it is still good.
There's a great example
Find where James Simmons lies if he was in your farm system. What would he be? 8th on the A’s? 10th?
I say he’s the equal of Arrieta or damn close. That right there tells you the difference in the systems.
Hmmm?
I agree that the As system is better, but I don’t think Simmons will be the 8th best prospect on even the As. Off the top of my head, only Cahill, Anderson and Chris Carter (Gio if you still consider him a prospect) are solidly better than Simmons. What distinguishes the As from the Orioles isn’t the top-tier talent, but just the ludicrous depth that they have. In terms of just top-4 talent, I think only the Rangers and maybe the Giants can beat the Orioles
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
equal to arrieta, ok, settle down
that’s pushing it quite a bit, simmons is more of a contact sinker guy who doesn’t have near the tools of arrieta, but much more control and command, actually they aren’t anything alike at all, i highly doubt there are many people that would take him over arrieta, but i’m not saying he isn’t good and that he isn’t hidden by a better crop of studs in his own system either
by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 20, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Simmons isn't a sinkerballer
He’s Kevin Slowey’s younger brother— the kind of guy who will might have seasons where he allows more HR than walks. I’m not sure he’s quite as extreme as Slowey, but he’s in the same mold.
The true sinkerballers on the A’s staff are Cahill, Mazzaro, Ryan Webb and Sam Demel.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He has better stuff than Slowey
When I hear Slowey I think junkballer/control artist.
Often miscast as a finesse pitcher, Simmons has much better stuff than that, and combines it with outstanding command. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he locates it with laser-like precision. His changeup is also a plus pitch with late drop and excellent arm action. He has a good body, clean mechanics, and maintains his stuff deep into games.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6985
Polished college strike thrower, yes, but better stuff than most of those guys.
You have to understand, I view a comparison to Slowey as a compliment,
not a pejorative. I love that kind of pitcher— guys who don’t beat themselves and pound the zone.
I mean, hell, Slowey had a 4 ERA this year, and it’s backed up by his FIP. He’s a good pitcher.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I like Slowey too
and I realize youre an A’s fan.
I just think Simmons is getting a bad rap in some ways. He has a pretty high ceiling IMHO. I really like him.
I don't
He’s the biggest fucking moron I’ve ever seen
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
And a homer
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn't matter how nice I am
It won’t make him any less wrong.
He’s so wrong he thinks VORP means Value of Relief Pitchers. He’s so wrong he thinks OPS means Official Paid Sniper. He’s so wrong he thinks Billy Beane is Bill Bavasi. He’s so wrong he thinks Dewey is conservative on Derek Holland. He’s so wrong he thinks Fernando Martinez is the #35 prospect, and not #40. That’s how wrong he is.
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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
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