My Top 50 Overall prospect list
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 5:25 PM EST
61 comments
With grades.
1. David Price, LHP, A
2. Matt Wieters, C, A
3. Travis Snider, OF, A-
4. Trevor Cahill, RHP, A-
5. Cameron Maybin, OF, A-
6. Colby Rasmus, OF, A-
7. Neftali Feliz, RHP, A-
8. Dexter Fowler, OF, A-
9. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, A-
10. Tim Alderson, RHP, A-
11. Max Ramirez, C/1B, B+
12. Andrew McCutchen, OF, B+
13. Mike Moustakas, SS, B+
14. Jason Heyward, OF, B+
15. Derek Holland, LHP, B+
16. Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, B+
17. Rick Porcello, RHP, B+
18. Lars Anderson, 1B, B+
19. Brett Anderson, LHP, B+
20. Chris Tillman, RHP, B+
21. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, B+
22. Jarrod Parker, RHP, B+
23. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, B+
24. Tommy Hanson, RHP, B+
25. Brian Matusz, LHP, B+
26. Eric Hosmer, 1B, B+
27. Carlos Santana, C, B+
28. Tim Beckham, SS, B+
29. Phillipe Aumont, RHP, B+
30. Fernando Martinez, OF, B+
31. Alcides Escobar, SS, B+
32. Michael Stanton, OF, B+
33. Buster Posey, C, B+
34. Freddie Freeman, 1B, B+
35. James McDonald, RHP, B+
36. Wade Davis, RHP, B+
37 Justin Smoak, 1B, B
38 Josh Vitters, 3B, B
39 Carlos Triunfel, SS, B
40. Jesus Montero, C, B
41Michael Saunders, OF, B
42 Elvis Andrus, SS, B
43. Yonder Alonso, 1B, B
44. Gordon Beckham, SS, B
45. Adam Miller, RHP, B
46. Wilmer Flores, SS, B
47. Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, B
48. Jake Arrieta, RHP, B
49. Aaron Cunningham, OF, B
50. Jason Donald, SS, B
2 recs |
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The next Jesus is only #14????????????
What is your problem?????
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 2, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
A little too low, IMO. He should be Top 10.
by supermets on Nov 2, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm
hesitant to put Sally league hitters in the Top 10. It’s more oriented towards hitters and to be quite honest, his numbers weren’t spectacular. Am I saying he’s a bad prospect? No. But in order to be in the Top 10 after a Single-A season you’d better have a Matt Wieters-like season.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters
What has he proven? What has he acccomplished besides a few good weeks in rookie ball, that makes you want to put him on this list. Same with Moustakas. Are we to forget his first half? At least with guys like Rasmus we have a track record of results.
by CoolCat23 on Nov 2, 2008 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think you're overreacting by ignoring scouting reports
Moustakas should be commended for his stats actually, hitting 22 homers in the MWL as a 19 year old is no small feat. Plus the scouting consensus is that he looked “as advertised” once he got over his initial slump.
And while I probably wouldn’t put Vitters on my personal top 50, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to have him as a B(ish) prospect based on what I’ve read on his performance in the NWL. I suspect the Cubs decided to let him stay in Boise to stay comfortable and just focus on playing the game after all the scrutiny over his initial struggles. He’ll still be 19 for most of the season next year in the MWL or maybe even moving up to the FSL if he continues to build on his success.
by jibs on Nov 2, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
logan morrison
no love on morrison? Think after beating down the FSL, a very hard league against hitters, he deserves a little bit of love. Not to mention destroying the AFL
by Fishfan79 on Nov 2, 2008 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fringy
I had a lot of choices toward the end — Morrison, Flowers, Walden, etc. I had to fit Cunningham and Donald because both will be in the bigs in the 2009 season and are definite everyday players, IMO, and Arrieta had to be there because he just can’t be left out.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
moustakas
he ranks him lower than the community list, so hard to consider that an overoptimistic ranking.
List actually to a degree mirrors the community list. I must underrate Alderson, and I have him.
Looks like wilmer won’t make community top 50.
by wobatus on Nov 2, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Adam Miller
I love his talent just like everyone else does I am sure, but when does injuries start to move him down lists? It has never been a question of ability with him but when he keeps healthy. I am starting to wonder if he ever will keep healthy.
by Fishfan79 on Nov 2, 2008 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A little tough
on the grades IMO. Only 10 guys in the A range, and I don’t think there should be 14 B’s in the Top 50.
by supermets on Nov 2, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Who's your weakest hitting prospect?
Take him out and insert Brett Wallace, I think. I like Wallace over Cunningham and Saunders, at least.
by siddfynch on Nov 2, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I don't think Cunningham has a right to be on this list.
by NateHST on Nov 2, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why
are people so low on Cunningham, and how does he not “have a right” to be on this list?? How many people actually look at what Cunningham has done at each level, at a young age over his minor league career?? I know I already put up the numbers on one of the prospect posts, but a guy who hits .311/.384/.496 over 1504 minor league AB’s, and did it playing young for each level is nothing short of impressive IMO. The guy hasn’t slugged under .500 since his short stint in high A to open his 2007 season (where he hit .294 with an .852 OPS in 67 games). There is no reason this guy shouldn’t be considered one of the top OF prospects in the game at this point. I’m not saying he should be top 20, but there is no reason his placement on this list is overrating him.
by JPShark on Nov 3, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I think this placement is fair
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 3, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like Wallace
but I’m still a little skeptical that he just had a hot streak coming into the majors like Ike Davis had a cold streak. He was another fringy player.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you think that Davis is going to be a major leaguer and Wallace is not. That is very odd logic you are using.
by CoolCat23 on Nov 2, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i actually like the Heyward ranking
because I’d like to see some of that vaunted power develop before ranking higher. yes i know his frame should fill out – but i want to see that happen first.
by son.of.sourman on Nov 2, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Plus one
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 2, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5 clubs
[/gets set for 1100 points, claims it was a pre-empt]
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 2, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just my opinion
but I’m thinking that several of yours B’s should have been B+’s. Smoak, Vitters, Montero, Andrus, Alonzo, Beckham, Miller, Zimmerman.
by groundingout on Nov 2, 2008 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Who's, whats, wheres, whens
For Smoak, Alonso and Beckham, I’m hesitant on grading with members of the draft the current year
Vitters hasn’t even played full season A ball
Montero is pretty far away, hasn’t had an incredible performance or anything
Andrus is really just fast. He has no pop, he kind of hits for average, isn’t too disciplined — I mean best case scenario he’s Jose Reyes, but there’s a large chance he could just be another Lillibridge
Miller’s had 17 starts in the past 2 years.
Zimmermann I may have been overconservative with.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Montero hasn't had an incredible performance or anything?
Prospect A: .323/.388/.483 with 11 homers
Prospect B: .326/.376/.491 with 17 homers
Prospect C: .316/.376/.521 with 18 homers
In case you haven’t guessed, A is Heyward, B is Montero, and C is Freeman. Pretty similar eh? Not to mention Montero put up his numbers while playing half of his games at catcher, a very demanding position that most people seem to think he won’t stay at. Montero’s numbers while he was DH’ing: .356/.417/.548 in a 239 AB sample (compared to .293/.333/.440 as a catcher), which blows both Heyward and Freeman’s numbers out of the water. I would call that a pretty impressive performance.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
by lemonjello on Nov 2, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If most people think
a Ryan Braun, for example, loses runs for a team on defense, was a top-10 prospect, then why shouldn’t you put a DH who at least doesn’t take anything away?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 3, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
uh yea
Absolutely. If they can really hit.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 3, 2008 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Travis Snider anyone????
He’s ranked #3 and is nothing more than a below-average corner defensively that might have to move to DH.
If you don’t like that example, then think Billy Butler from a couple years ago.
Point is, if a DH can really really rake, he deserves a top 50 ranking easily.
by guru4u on Nov 3, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Love Jason Donald More
Top 50 seems way too high
by Birdfan01 on Nov 2, 2008 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tabata
Obviously its difficult to find a rational explanation why his at bats for Pittsburgh are more meaningful than his at bats for New York, but if his performance the last month was anything like the real deal he has to be on here somewhere. So far he is doing pretty well in winter ball.
by Dalman on Nov 2, 2008 9:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No AnVil? :-(
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 2, 2008 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Whose done better at a higher level?
hmmm…
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 2, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously the guy who's 2 years older
but who is also less impressive because of his lesser power potential. And also the guy that wasn’t in his first season of pro ball.
by boonitez on Nov 3, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for all of 45 games
Anvil played about as many games at the age of 16 and showed decent power. And also, F-Mart doesn’t have anything close to the ceiling AnVil has.
by boonitez on Nov 4, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What ceilings are those?
and who are you to quantify them? And what do you base them on?
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 5, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can ask you the same question
most of F-Mart’s hype as a prospect is completely based on projection. AnVil’s demonstrated his power potential by cracking well into double digits in homers in his first full season as a pro, while F-Mart has hit 10 homers once in his career and done nothing power-wise ever since. I base my projection of his ceiling on his physique and the power numbers he’s already put up at such a young age. His ceiling has been compared to that of Andres Galaragga in his prime. It’s not just me saying it; scouts see his potential too.
Martinez has been described as a potential corner OF that hits for both average and power, but other than those 45 games, how has he in any way demonstrated that? The second best average he’s put up in his career was this year when he hit .287. Good, but not that impressive. Oh, and another thing. He’s never played more than 90 games in a season. Seems like he’s a bit of an injury risk? And if that’s true would that not hurt his status as a top prospect?
by boonitez on Nov 5, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Addendum
51. Ben Revere, OF, B
52. Tyler Flowers, C/1B, B
53. Brett Wallace, OF, B
54. Chris Perez, RHP, B
55. Jordan Schafer, OF, B
56. Michael Main, RHP, B
57. Jordan Walden, RHP, B
58. Logan Morrison, 1B, B
59. Angel Villalona, 1B, B
60. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, B
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 2, 2008 10:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
seeing as
many of those are on the community list already or at least have been given testers, methinks they’re underrated as 50-60 on this list
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 2, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only Villalona made it so far
And he is generally assumed to have been over-rated at #25. Morrison will make it before long, though personally I agree more with METS on him than the community
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 2, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol...
definitely a mets fan….every guy who either started as a brave or is currently a brave is WAY lower than national writers are ranking outside of max….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 2, 2008 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
lol
Definitely a Braves fan. Can’t take criticism.
by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 3, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
criticism is fine
if you can back it up….but having rankings that far off of basically every nationally respected ranking service without explanation leads to assumption of bias
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Get in line, METSMETSMETS. If you don’t put your rankings like EVERYONE ELSE, you’re OBVIOUSLY BIASED.
by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 3, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no one
not a soul has stated that he could not have a differing opinion…but that he should explain why his opinion is that far off of others….there may be an excellent reasoning behind such ratings, as i’ve not had any hint of bias against other organizations in the past when discussing prospects with the OP….but i found it quite interesting that the ones that i noticed being quite away from typical ranking spots right now were by and large braves or ex-braves….i probably jumped to the bias assumption too quickly, but once again, without explanation, such a coincidence is left up to be questioned…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then an appropriate comment would have been: I wish you’d put some comments in. Some of your choices seem strange to me.
As opposed to disregarding him as a Mets fan.
by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 3, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would disregard
his being a Mets fan anyway ;)
J/K!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 3, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
Heyward’s ranking is mainly due to the fact that he was in the freaking sally league, and he really didn’t blow anyone away numbers-wise. I think he could be the best in the minors next year, but to be in MY Top 10, you’d better have some AA experience or some incredible single-A numbers like Wieters or Bumgarner.
As for Freeman, the story is similar. He’s a 1B in the sally league. While he was impressive at a young age, I still think that Single-A players should do something to really make them standout. Look at the players ahead of him. Most either have AA experience, or are players like Carlos Santana, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Tim Beckham. Santana is an outstanding hitter and a catcher to boot, Alvarez was the best player in the draft, Hosmer has extremely high power potneital and Beckham was the first overall player in the draft. While Freeman is good, I don’t think he should be moved up yet.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 4, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for that
i would be curious what your reasoning behind jordan schafer’s ranking, tommy hanson’s ranking, and where you put angel villalona….lastly, though i’m not surprised by it as the opinion is very varied here, what your thoughts are on elvis andrus and why he’s #42
explanations help make more logic behind the rankings….i do disagree with your assessment of heyward, but that’s based on more of the eye than the stat sheet, and that’s a common back and forth in the prospecting community….freeman i honestly wasn’t too surprised by because, like my mention of andrus above, there’s a tremendous range of opinion of those who watch him as to how he’ll develop….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 5, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so, you made the list
Perhaps you can explain to me how Brett Anderson can possibly be ranked below Tim Alderson, given his better control, better stuff, higher level of play so far, and better strikeout numbers.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 3, 2008 3:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
"Stuff"
is highly opinionated. I think Alderson’s scouting reports and good numbers have a little more leverage on the higher level of play and K numbers. It’s not like they’re that far apart from each other.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 4, 2008 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Arrietta
I think he could really take off in 2009(though he did in 2008) moving up to AA he could become a top 10 overall prospect by midseason. The O’s have added some great arms in Tillman and Matusz and Arrietta..as well as guys like Hernandez and Spoone..they could be decent by 2012 maybe
by NYSOX on Nov 3, 2008 7:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Thoughts
Overall a good list. I have no major complaints on the rankings – and actually this looks better than the community list to me. Here are my observations:
1. Alderson is overrated at #10. I have some questions as to whether he can really develop into a true #2 SP in the bigs – which is what he would have to be to justify a #10 overall ranking (save injury of course). I would personally push him down 10 spots.
2. LOVE the fact that you ranked Feliz ahead of Bumgarner. Honestly, you can easily argue Neftali is the #2 pitching prospect in the minors right now (to Price). His combo of nasty stuff and ease of delivery is tough to beat. Control is a minor worry, and while it has improved in 2008, it will need to continue to improve in 2009. I love the Mad Bum as a prospect, but you have to go with the guy that is accomplished in AA over the guy that only pitched in low A when the ceilings are similar.
3. Max Ramirez justifies the #11 ranking if he sticks at C, but obviously that is in severe question right now. Teagarden really looks like their C of the future (barring trade of course) and MaxRam looks more like a solid corner bat that will be only slightly above average if it has to play at 1B. Seems like a bit of a risk to rank him that high.
4. I would personally rank Stanton higher. Finding an 18 yr old kid that can hit for that kind of power in a pitchers league is very, very tough to do. The K’s are obviously a huge concern, and honestly that is the only thing that will keep him out of my top 10. Because of the K’s, he probably belongs more around #25 or so.
5. Adam Miller will not be sniffing my top 50. The injuries are just too much to overlook, and I have some serious questions about whether he will ever be a big league starter. He seems more like a guy you move to the pen and hope that solves the injury issues.
Like I said though, overall it is a very good list. Thanks for sharing!
by guru4u on Nov 3, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lot of
Alderson controversy… But i’m sticking with him.
More MaxRam’s AAA that impresses me than his C position, which in itself is impressive. In hindsight I think he should be lower.
Stanton’s K numbers worry me, HRs could be flukey. He’s still a very talented prospect. 25 and 32 aren’ too far apart.
Miller could’ve easily been the most regrettable decision of them all.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 4, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
adam miller
call it whatever you will, but i have a feeling somewhere down the line we’ll be discussing him like we are now ryan ludwick after finally achieving his high prospect ranking before injuries and opportunities derailed his career….but he’s just as likely to be just another top prospect pitcher who never made it because his arm didn’t hold up….that outcome wouldn’t surprise me either….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Nov 5, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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