BA's Cleveland Indians top 10 prospects
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 11:04 AM EST
51 comments
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267213.html
| 1. Carlos Santana, c |
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| 2. Matt LaPorta, of |
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| 3. Nick Weglarz, of |
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| 4. Adam Miller, rhp |
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| 5. Beau Mills, 1b |
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| 6. Lonnie Chisenhall, ss |
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| 7. Kelvin de la Cruz, lhp |
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| 8. David Huff, lhp |
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| 9. Michael Brantley, of/1b |
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| 10. Carlos Rivero, ss |
Interesting list -- Santana no. 1, which is somewhat expected, but Rivero, De La Cruz and Brantley cracking the top 10 is a surprise to me. Also, Chisenhall and Weglarz were higher than I expected. The biggest top 10 MIA is Hodges. After ranking 4th last year, he completely fell out of it this year, though it shouldn't be because of performance. Perhaps BA has some concerns about his ability to stay at 3rd, thus reducing his value. I guess Rondon just fell short of the top 10, but I'm sure he's in the top 15.
I was also surprised by their 2012 lineup with Peralta playing 2nd base. If he's able to do that, then I wonder if the Tribe FO will try it.
If you look at the top 10 and consider which guys are behind them, then it's obvious how deep the farm system is. We may not have the sexiest top 5 or anything, but we can compete with anyone as far as our top 15/top 20 goes.
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Glad to see Santana getting some respect
The community prospect list is severely underranking him.
And I agree that Hodges is a glaring omission. I really can’t see Brantley ahead of him.
by aCone419 on Nov 19, 2008 11:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brantley
never was a big fan of him and I was actually hoping that Taylor Green would be the PTBNL. However, Brantley does have some very nice qualities — making contact and very good plate discipline. He also has some speed, though I believe it doesn’t help him much in the OF. If you can live with his lack of power, then he can definately be a solid everyday player. Let’s not forget that he did very well in AA as a 21-year old, so it’s not like he’s worthless.
Maybe BA sees something in him that wasn’t there the years before. I guess we’ll have to wait for their complete write-up.
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brantley has at least two skills which are better than any skill Hodges has; contact and speed. Brantley’s K% last year (5.7%) was incredibly good, especially for a player his age at the AA level. Brantley has the potential to add power and plus defense as he develops. Hodges does a number of things well (decent average, decent power), but nothing great. Whether or not Hodges can maintain his performance level as he advances to AAA and MLB is in question. And Hodges is not young, is not a good 3B, and has a more complicated injury history than Brantley.
by APV on Nov 19, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen
Santana should be a very good major league catcher. He could be replacing that chump V Mart within the year. If so, V Mart would move to 1st in all likelihood. Santana could be a real solid middle of the order bat for this team with pretty good defense.
Think the dodgers are regretting that Casey Blake trade at all? I know they have Martin, but even so, I think they should have got more for Santana (+ Meloan)
by brok515 on Nov 19, 2008 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Victor Martinez
“that chump V Mart”? seriously?
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
That was probably bad wording, Martinez is still solid but he had a down year (due to injuries for the most part). I guess I was more referencing his poor defense and weak arm.
Does anyone have any idea why V Mart wasn’t listed on the 2012 roster for the Indians?
by brok515 on Nov 19, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't put read too much into the 2012 lineups
It’s just a way for BA to take a peek at the overall depth of an organization; they probably don’t list VMart because it’s a better reflection of the Tribe’s depth to have Santana, Mills, Shoppach, LaPorta, etc on the 2012 lineup (I haven’t looked at it). I get the feeling BA wishes they never included this feature in their writeups . . .
by gogotabata on Nov 19, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Martinez' defense
Is really underrated. He has done a very good job with the Tribe’s young staff and calls a good game. He also has improved his throwing and blocking skills, making him solid behind the plate and well above average with the bat. I fully expect him to be back next year.
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 and +1 again
I’m not sure if I’d put Santana above LaPorta, but he is still a top-notch prospect and has been underrated
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Nov 19, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Their top two prospects were acquired this year for two players acquired by teams that got eliminated in the playoffs by a team that didn’t make any major deadline deals and went on to win the World Series. Also, both players acquired are now free agents.
by StickRat on Nov 19, 2008 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Joe Blanton
Well The Phillies mad a move and not sure I would call major but bigger in my mind then the Blake deal you mention above. I would also add the Phillies acquired Matt Stairs at the deadline and he had an impact also. - Phillies deserved to win for making these moves while TB sat on thier prospects and let the world go round.
by novaoakland on Nov 20, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are you serious?
So the Phillies deserved to win the WS because they made deadline deals while the Rays didn’t? I mean why should you even try to understand the massive difference in payroll and team philosophy?
This is one of the weirdest arguments I’ve seen in favor of the Phillies winning and I’ve seen alot of them. First of all, the Rays didn’t lose because they didn’t make any moves, but because the Phillies were just better throughout the series. Also, who exactly should the Rays have traded for? People criticized it at the time thinking they wouldn’t make it, but they did. I also remember them making short work of the White Sox and tearing the Red Sox a new one games 3 through 5.
But all of this is besides the point. The Rays have to hold on to their prospects because it’s the cheapest way for them to build a contender. They can’t just trade their young talent and then fill any holes via free agency like the Phillies do. Also, I believe the Rays actually made it to the WS with mostly homegrown players.
by JP_Frost on Nov 20, 2008 2:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Half and Half...
on the Home Grown part. Pena, Iwamura, Bartlett, the RF monster, Navarro, Kazmir, Balfour, Percival, and Garza are all acquisitions. Some of their biggest names are home grown talent though (Upton, Crawford, Shields, and Longoria) which makes the team seem more home grown than it actually is… I think.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Nov 20, 2008 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
By number of players, the Rays are primarily a team acquired through trades and cheap pickups.
However, by wins above average, they are primarily the product of draft picks and players acquired through trades of talented high draft picks.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 20, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh right, Blanton
I was going off the top of my head there, and didn’t go past Hamels, Myers, Moyer in the rotation. Sorry.
by StickRat on Nov 20, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Chad Bradford was a good move.
by alskor on Nov 20, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great move... they got him without giving up anything in return...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 20, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
For what it’s worth, this is the first BA list that fits my own mental rundown. Other than Miller, who I’d drop about 3 spots, I think I agree 100% with this list, especially in the Santana and Weglarz rankings.
by gogotabata on Nov 19, 2008 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hodges?
That is odd. 4th last year. Not a tremendously improved system. A good year in AA, and an excellent AFL campaign. How does he fall off the map?
by scooter on Nov 19, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Improvement
I’d say the system has improved rather substantially. BA rated it 19th last year, and my guess is that the system creeps back into the top 10 this year. It’s really deep and over the past year it has added some “star prospects”.
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Helps that the Dodgers basically bent over and said "Ah" for half a season of Casey Blake
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Nov 19, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hodges absence from the list says more about the talent Cleveland added this year (Laporta, Brantley, Santana) than Hodges play. That said, Hodges didn’t really improve his status at all. He had a good year, but nothing suggesting he’s a better prospect than he was a year ago. Meanwhile, guys like Rivero and De La Cruz have clearly improved their prospect status this past season.
by APV on Nov 19, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
disagree
1: Any player that makes the transition to AA seamlessly has improved his prospect status. That’s the biggest leap there is, and he made it.
2: Hodges is tearing up the AFL and while in the BA chat he makes excuses for why a guy like Laporta can be expected to struggle in Winter Ball, that Hodges isn’t struggling does, again, improve his prospect status.
Clearly a faulty ranking.
by scooter on Nov 19, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I’m not saying Hodges had a bad season, but I hold that he didn’t do much to improve his prospect status relative to a number of other guys in the system. Relative to the league average, his OPS+ dropped from 115 to 110. We can also compare his performance to other guys in Akron. Trevor Crowe put up an .889 OPS in his stint in Akron, Chris Gimenez a 1.024, and Wyatt Toregas a .945. All these guys are 1-2 years older than Hodges, but none of them are what would be considered big-time prospects, either. And neither should Hodges. I’m sure he’s in the 10-15 range on BA’s list, which seems right to me. Don’t forget that his error total (obviously an imperfect number – but it’s what we have), jumped to 28 this season. And he’s got 8 errors in just 24 games in the AFL.
by APV on Nov 19, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Badler basically said Hodges is likely to be very bad at 3B and his bat is a lot less
special at 1B
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 19, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure about this list
Rondon absolutely belongs in the top 10. He struck out a batter per inning as a 20 year old in high A. Less than a H/IP, 42/145 BB/K over 145 IP.
I like Santana a lot, but I’m not sure I’d put him over LaPorta yet. Figured Santana would be #2.
Probably didn’t expect Rivero or Chisenhall to be in the top 10. Probably thought Rondon and Hodges would be.
by rdf8585 on Nov 19, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree. Bottom half of the top 10, but Rondon should be on the list.
by APV on Nov 19, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting Choices
Weglarz above Adam Miller is very interesting after they held steady on his value after 2 injury filled years.
by tdot mariner fan on Nov 19, 2008 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Badler thinks Miller's likely to move to the pen now, which wasn't the case with the previous write-ups
who were not done by Badler
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 19, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Finally
They have put Trevor Crowe out of his misery.
by CoolCat23 on Nov 19, 2008 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wha...?
But half the people on here argued he was better than Jacoby Ellsbury…?
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crowe
He looked awesome back in A ball . . .some people (myself certainly among them) overvalued that performance, though. He was a polished college guy with good speed, lots of those guys short-circuit in AA. I thought the bat was more legit than it proved to be, and his defense has gotten worse rather than better.
I remember something years ago about the disaster that was the Indians trying to convert Crowe to 2B. I think they might as well give it another shot . . .he screams 4th outfielder at best, but if he could become even fringe-average defensively at 2B then he might parlay that into a starting role somewhere.
by mrkupe on Nov 19, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jon Meloan
I have to imagine he just missed the top-10?
That Blake trade sure hurts as a Dodger fan.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on Nov 19, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Meloan, Sipp and Stevens probably all fall into the 11-20 range. It’s hard to value a minor league reliever over a potential everyday positional starter.
by APV on Nov 19, 2008 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meloan
I’d say he’s probably top 15. His status took a hit after the Dodgers converted him to a starter, but as a relief prospect he’s very solid and could play a big role for the Indians in 2009.
by JP_Frost on Nov 19, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Indians
Better than what it’s looked like in previous years. They’re going to get some solid bats into the lineup, albeit at offense-first positions. Quality pitching is down from previous years, though . . .Miller is perpetually injured and Huff is solid but probably not more than that at the major league level, and there’s always the chance he goes Jeremy Sowers. They don’t have Sabathia anymore, and Cliff Lee is not winning 22 games for them next year. But I imagine this will be addressed in time.
Best thing on this list: the thought of Michael Brantley playing 1B in the majors. Could you imagine the fantasy implications of a no-power, 35-40 SB first baseman?
by mrkupe on Nov 19, 2008 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matt McBride=Sleeper
i can see him cracking the top 10 next year if he stays healthy
by Kazmir2657 on Nov 19, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
One of the things that I find
most interesting is that BA, like MiLB, still has De La Cruz’s birthday at 1/10/88 when it is actually 8/1/88 which makes his progress even more impressive. They did get Rivero’s birthday right this time which makes their mistake in league rankings even more obvious.
The list is pretty much in line with mine except that I had Rondon in Brantley’s spot since I have not seen Brantley play. A little surprised about the comments about Rondon’s breaking ball which is pretty good for a 20 YO at kinston. Also in line with my view is TJ House’s inclusion in the 2012 rotation. I am guessing he will easily be top 20 when the full listings come out.
Hodges was borderline top ten and a case could be made that his offensive and defensive play in the AFL might place him there. He has a good arm and I expect the mechanics to be corrected. Badler’s comments about his defense certainly contradict BAs assessment from last year.
All in all, I thought BA did a much better job this year that they did last year and I am really looking forward to John’s assessment of the Cleveland system.
BTW, I think the real sleeper in the Cleveland system is Clayton Cook.
by sdtribefan on Nov 19, 2008 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Badler
Seems like he is way out of line with the BA standard theory (aka Callis/Manuel) on quite a few guys. Callis did the MWL top 20, and there is no way that his and Levanthal’s opinions and comments on De La Cruz and Rondon fit with Badler’s. I wouldn’t necessarily indict Badler as wrong, but he definitely seems to be going off on his own on some of this.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 19, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I might be wrong on the birthdate problem but
they missed De La Cruz by 8 months even now and Rivero by 2 years. Starting in Kinston (A+) at midseason when he was still 19 is quite an achievement and they left him off the low A list entirely. I think Badler may have read some of the blogs about how badly they screwed up. As thorough as he seemed to be, I am surprised he made such out of date comments about Rondon’s breaking ball. It is probably a plus pitch. Now his change is a work in progress. To me, Badler is a breath of fresh air. While I don’t agree with some of his comments, he did come up with a good list.
by sdtribefan on Nov 19, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To counter my earlier comment a little
Callis did stand up for their ranking of Rondon with some conviction in his ESPN chat.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 20, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
draft
Seems this year’s draft has really added to CLE depth. Going over slot for Zach Putnam, House, etc. added depth to the org, and if a few more teams take lessons from the BOSOX they will jumpstart their farm. All won’t make it to bigs but the “portfolio” approach will give them trading chips and some potential upside.
by thebroman on Nov 19, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The revenues make the comparison difficult.
Boston spends several times on FAs than Cleveland does. They can afford to do that but Cleveland cannot. Cleveland has to rely on its farm system for the players it provides to the big club. They have terrific depth and were likely underrated last year but they are aware that they cannot keep players like Sabathia. They have to fill spots internally since FAs do not come to Cleveland. If it weren’t for trades and Latin signings they would not be where they are. Cleveland has actually been going over slot for some time. People just noticed this year after they picked a bundle of players late.
by sdtribefan on Nov 19, 2008 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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