Community Prospect List: #60
by the pinstripes
on Nov 19, 2008 9:44 AM EST
63 comments
After 325 votes Jake Arrieta has been declared the winner with 20% of the vote. Wilmer Flores came in second place with 11%. Christopher Perez & Aaron Hicks will be removed from the poll as they received less than the 5% minimum. J.P. Arencibia, Jason Donald & Todd Frazier will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago)
44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinatti)
45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)
46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)
47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago)
48. BRETT CECIL - SP (Toronto)
49. ALCIDES ESCOBAR - SS (Milwaukee)*
50. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - SP (Washington)
51. CHRIS CARTER - 1B/DH (Oakland)
52. CARLOS TRIUNFEL - SS (Seattle)
53. AUSTIN JACKSON - OF (New York)
54. BEN REVERE - OF (Minnesota)
55. MICHAEL BOWDEN - SP (Boston)
56. TYLER FLOWERS - C (Atlanta)
57. ADRIAN CARDENAS - SS (Oakland)
58. REID BRIGNAC - SS (Tampa Bay)
59. JAKE ARRIETA - SP (Baltimore)
CANDIDATES - Wilmer Flores, Michael Main, Michael Saunders, Carlos Carrasco, Jeremy Jeffress, Matt Dominguez, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Tabata, Jordan Walden, J.P. Arencibia, Jason Donald & Todd Frazier
TESTERS - Kyle Blanks, Michel Inoa, Martin Perez, Michael Burgess, Kila Ka'Aihue, Aaron Cunningham, Beau Mills, Desmond Jennings, Angel Salome, Dellin Betances, Daryl Jones, Andrew Lambo, Nick Weglarz, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Cortes, Greg Halman, David Cooper, Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, Adam Miller, Phillippe Aumont, Christopher Perez, Aaron Hicks, Christopher Marrero & Aaron Poreda
Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them
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J.P. Arencibia
plus defender w/ huge power.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Nov 19, 2008 9:46 AM EST
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Arencibia vs Main
Cage fight for #60
by jparks77 on
Nov 19, 2008 9:49 AM EST
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besides homerism, how can you claim that main is a better prospect than jordan walden?
walden decimated the MWL, and held his own in the CAL league, while main was still in extended spring training.
their stuff is at best, a wash, while their level of refinement most definitely favors walden. main might be a better player, but to this point, he’s not proven it.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Nov 19, 2008 10:02 AM EST
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I've been able to see both pitchers (several times)
and I think Main has better stuff and stands a better chance of reaching his ceiling. He is perhaps the most gifted natural athlete of any player in the Rangers minor league system, and he has the mental make-up to actually reach the bar set by his physical gifts. Make-up often gets the shaft on message boards (not suggesting you share this view), but it is an important factor when evaluating prospects and one of the reasons I believe Main stands a good chance of reaching his ceiling.
I think Walden is an excellent pitcher, but I just happen to think Main is the slightly better prospect. I also understand that being a Rangers fan sets me up for the homer debate, which definitely is valid. But in all honesty, I think Main is the best all-around pitcher in the Rangers system. It’s not a popular opinion.
by jparks77 on
Nov 19, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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Well, one potential reason
Walden is a health risk – which is why he dropped in the draft.
Main is a tremendous athlete who was perhaps the best high school OF in the draft last year.
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 10:21 AM EST
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and yet which player is the one who actually has had an injury as a pro...
free chris getz!
by larry on
Nov 19, 2008 10:41 AM EST
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Good point
but the severity of the injuries was slightly different…
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 10:50 AM EST
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really?
i don’t consider either of the injuries to be signficant.
free chris getz!
by larry on
Nov 19, 2008 10:53 AM EST
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I thought he had arm problems in high school
and lost velocity… no…?
Main was a cracked rib, right?
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 11:16 AM EST
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walden had a groin injury
which supposedly was the cause of the velocity loss. obviously, at the time, this was a big concern (was it really the groin that was causing it? will continuing to pitch with the injury cause other issues, namely in his arm? does he have a propensity for such injuries?). but the further we get from that the less it matters. he has it velocity back so it seems it was the groin. he didn’t get another injury. and, after pitching 160 innings this year and it being 2.5 years later, it doesn’t seem like he has a propensity for such issues in his legs.
if anything, i would like more info on main’s injury. rib stress fractures are a classic overuse injury. and since it was earlier this year, i’d be more concerned about a recent overuse injury than a leg injury three years ago. but obviously people can weight things however they choose.
free chris getz!
by larry on
Nov 19, 2008 11:46 AM EST
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Ok
that’s just my ignorance then. Thanks for the info.
I had heard a bunch of stuff about Walden… and to be fair, I had him ranked higher than Main (by three spots) going into 08, so he should probably stay there.
Main wasnt even pitching at the time of the injury, IIRC… wasnt he just starting instructional?
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 11:59 AM EST
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unclear. not a lot of info out there on it.
it was a “preseason” type injury. i’d be concerned if the “overuse” was due to just throwing. i’d probably have a lesser concern if this guy was doing some sort of unorthodox exercises (or even “normal” arm strengthening exercises) that triggered it – largely because one would hope that kind of stuff is easily correctable in most coachable players and by most competent training staffs.
but, like i said, i don’t consider either to be that significant. without anything more, rib stress fractures really aren’t indicative of much on their own.
free chris getz!
by larry on
Nov 19, 2008 12:08 PM EST
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a solid choice
i went for donald, myself, but i’ve got arencibia, frazier, donald, dominguez, lambo, samardzija and walden about even.
the points in favor of donald are simple. he’s been the best player on his team everywhere he’s been. in college, in A+ clearwater, in AA reading, in the olympics for team USA, in the AFL for mesa.
he’s just flat hit, and everytime the level of competition rises, so too does his performance.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Nov 19, 2008 9:58 AM EST
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Donald has been the best player for Mesa?
Tyler Flowers?
Logan Morrison?
Maybe, I am being a little nitpicky about 1 point of your post.
by parish on
Nov 19, 2008 10:16 AM EST
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flowers has been otherworldly
but i’d argue that donald has also been superb. he was by far the best player at all his other stops, but even if you want to give the edge to flowers’ power, that’s not really a knock against donald.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Nov 19, 2008 10:24 AM EST
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Those are some ridiculous stats by Flowers
It’s also no surprise that Mesa has been putting up double digit wins on a regular basis.
What’s amazing is that with Morrison, Donald, and Flowers, not to mention the pitching of Tommy Hanson, that the Saguaros might win that division.
by parish on
Nov 19, 2008 10:39 AM EST
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Not so sure...
Wasn’t Strasburg on that Olympic team with him? Didn’t Strasburg almost throw a no-hitter too?
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Nov 19, 2008 11:00 AM EST
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he very well might have, he's a hell of a pitcher
but 3 starts doesn’t = 13 games played at SS, hitting damn near .400.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on
Nov 19, 2008 11:02 AM EST
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great arguments guys
:)
Just teasing.
Saunders looks ok, but I am not blown away by his performance yet, although Austin Jackson is much higher already and I am not blown away by his performance yet either.
I went for Flores, although a decent case could be made for a lot of guys here. I like Aaron Cunningham as well. Saunders may be more toolsy.
by wobatus on
Nov 19, 2008 3:20 PM EST
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Yeah Yeah
Just kidding, it just seems the Saunders argument has been made for 20 or so threads, I don’t think making it again is going to sway voters much. I don’t have too much of a problem with Flores, big tools, far away, but there are obviously going to be different types of players on a list like this. I like Halman a lot, despite the Ks because of the other numbers, ARL, and scouting. Saunders is kindof a guy with decent numbers and good, but not overwhelming scouting reports. That said, he’s done well ARL and is a little more advanced than some of the other guys. I have no doubt that we could have a list that hit on a higher % of major leaguers by going with more advanced guys, while having more studs based on scouting and projection. I’m somewhere in the happy medium of all that; and, for me, Saunders is just that, and he’s due….
by killa on
Nov 19, 2008 7:20 PM EST
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Once again
Dominguez
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Nov 19, 2008 10:02 AM EST
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Main
I don’t get it. He doesn’t have the best stuff of the guys not on the board (Jeffress) and he hasn’t done anything.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 10:03 AM EST
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I would still take Main's stuff
and his ability to control it would make up any difference anyway. Main has Ace, front of the rotation stuff by all accounts… and I think its same to assume he doesnt have the train wreck, walk almost 7 out of every 9 quality that Jeffress has.
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 10:24 AM EST
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Why?
I really don’t understand the Main love. His stuff isn’t better than some of the other guys on this poll. In my mind, he is the epitome of the ridiculous Ranger prospect hype machine.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 11:05 AM EST
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No
Not outside of draft vids and the like.
But reading YOUR description of his stuff, which is probably the most generous of all possible sources, doesn’t lead me to believe it is out of this world. 92-95 with a good curve doesn’t blow the other candidates out of the water, especially when combined with his tiny track record and gimpy history.
And that’s not to mention that other sources have said that his stuff actually was down for most of the season.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 12:28 PM EST
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Main’s stuff was actually better than it was during his final high school outings, as his fastball sat at 92-94 mph while touching 96 and he also showcased a power curve that already rates as plus. He’s one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, with very smooth mechanics and excellent fielding skills.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7013
Main missed the first half of the season recovering from a rib-cage injury, but he’s been impressive since his return, with a 2.25 ERA in six starts for Low-A Clinton while recording 28 strikeouts in 28 innings and limiting opposing batters to a .221 average. A scout who recently saw Main noted plenty of good in the here and now, combined with a good amount of room for future improvement. “The stuff is there, but it needs to be refined,” explained the scout. “I saw him up to 94 mph on the fastball with good life, and his curveball is a real downer with a pretty sharp break. His delivery is solid and he’s aggressive, and really he’s got everything you want to see in a kid his age.” As for the improvements Main needs to make, the scout felt that Main would perfectly capable of reaching them. “He’s so athletic and thin and lean—there’s not a lot of pitchability right now, but I can see it coming. You add the physical maturing that’s clearly still to come, and he could really turn into something.”
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7952
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 12:49 PM EST
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I don't understand
Neither of those passages contradicts what I wrote.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 1:51 PM EST
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Just adding to the discussion.
BUT, I do think youre wrong about his stuff being “down for most of the season.” He was lights out with scouts raving about him, though he pitched a short season.
I think his stuff is up there with anybody left on the list… though Id still put Walden above him.
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 1:55 PM EST
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That was from Callis
He said in the Midwest league chat that Main was sitting at 91 during the season:
Like many high school pitchers in their first full season, Main saw his stuff dip a little bit. His fastball sat around 91 mph and his curveball was average, though his changeup was better than anticipated. He’s still a quality prospect.
Now maybe Callis has bad information, but I take all the homer Ranger sites sites (feels like their are a lot of them) with a pretty big grain of salt to begin with.
The passages you posted above tell me that Main is still the same as when he was drafted: a athletic kid with a big arm, a good curve, and a tendency to hurt himself, but who isn’t much of a pitcher right now. What separates him from the other arms in the Ranger system like Martin Perez or Neil Ramirez? All three fit the description of “big arm, good curve, learning to pitch.” Or someone like Mat Latos? What is so special about Main? I don’t get it.
I actually like Main, but I am perplexed at the sudden hype spike.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 2:07 PM EST
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How does a broken rib lead to "tend to hurt himself"?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on
Nov 19, 2008 2:20 PM EST
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Its not a spike
BP had him pretty high on their top 100 list going into 08.
by alskor on
Nov 19, 2008 2:37 PM EST
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Recently
In the last few weeks Rangers’ fans have been going ga-ga over Main and it is caring over to the mainstream of this site.
I’m not saying that Main shouldn’t be in the top 100. I’m saying I don’t see what evidence puts him at this spot over other similar candidates.
by aCone419 on
Nov 19, 2008 2:45 PM EST
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Main
He’s far more polished than Jeffress, with amazing athleticism and stuff that’s second to very few. You’ll run into some folks who are EXTREMELY high on him, such as: http://www.bbtia.com/home/month/october-2008.
While I don’t share this site’s level of enthusiasm, I think #60 is a good spot for him here.
by nivarsity on
Nov 19, 2008 11:40 AM EST
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I'm the homer in question
Here is the actual link to the top 25: http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/10/27/the-btia-top-25-prospect-rankings-fall-08-edition.html
by jparks77 on
Nov 19, 2008 11:43 AM EST
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I know
I was trying not to blow your cover.
by nivarsity on
Nov 19, 2008 11:47 AM EST
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I'm more worried about blowing my credibility (assuming I even have any) :)
Ranking Main over Feliz and Holland wasn’t a popular choice amongst my Texas brethren, but as I mentioned, I really believe in the kid. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut.
by jparks77 on
Nov 19, 2008 11:50 AM EST
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While I don't agree
I found your defense of the choice to be reasonable. I definitely think he will be one of 2009’s prospects to watch — I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s top-20 by year’s end.
by nivarsity on
Nov 19, 2008 12:14 PM EST
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i thought your rangers capsules were well done BUT
it would be easier for me to take them seriously if you could avoid overdoing it with the superlatives. writing “wow” at the end of every capsule just doesn’t do much for me. i understand that it’s a rangers’ website so it’s probably going to be a little ‘homerish’ but you can’t possibly be “wowed” by every single player on the list.
by psugator on
Nov 19, 2008 1:05 PM EST
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Fair critique
I’m definitely prone to extreme bouts of homerism.
by jparks77 on
Nov 19, 2008 1:13 PM EST
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his stuff?
I think you’re way underestimating his stuff. He’s got a good Curve to go with a real good mid 90’s fastball, add that to a plus make up and alot of projectability, you got a really good, really young prospect
by blalock84 on
Nov 19, 2008 11:56 AM EST
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you go girl!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Nov 19, 2008 2:45 PM EST
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Samardzija
I think he can start, plus he has improved at every level, majors at 23 with some dominating performances. Look at his month of August and tell me this guy can’t do it. He struggled down the stretch against better teams but it was not like he didn’t deserve to be on the mound. He has the arsenal to get the job done. If he can harness the bender, his ceiling is easily top of the rotation. He is a case of the minor league numbers lying as to what kind of ability he has.
by uwbadger on
Nov 19, 2008 12:38 PM EST
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wow, this is a close one.
free chris getz!
by larry on
Nov 19, 2008 2:02 PM EST
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Less Consensus
Definitely less consensus choices being made and more people in blocks. I see many a runoff in the future
by thudean on
Nov 19, 2008 2:33 PM EST
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Agreed
Ideally, if we had nothing better to do with our lives, we would knock off the bottom vote getter and then do another run off and another until somebody got 50% and then declare that player the winner of that spot on the list. That’s the only way of really knowing fro sure who is preferred at each level by the community. While that method of doing things is of course unrealistic it should be the goal to as nearly as possible end up with a list that as closely as possible mirrors the result that would happen if they did that. A four way run off between Arrenciba, Flores, Main and Walden probably gets that guy for this round, but its not at all a sure thing. Liking four or five of these guys to a moderate extent I was as close to throwing darts this round as I have been since the process started.
by Dalman on
Nov 19, 2008 5:35 PM EST
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Neftali Soto tester
I think he is a better prospect than Todd Frazier is who is currently getting votes in this poll.
Positives
High average hitter thanks to his power and lack of strikeouts
Lots of power
Doesn’t strike out
Negatives
Doesn’t walk much
Certainly deserving to at least be on the testers list.
by dougdirt on
Nov 19, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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Also meant to note
He won’t get my vote for at least a few more polls, as I have others ranked ahead of him, but not a whole lot more.
by dougdirt on
Nov 19, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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I thought about it a while and then voted for Arencibia
I didn’t check to see if he was on one of the prior polls; it’s possible this was inconsistent but I don’t really care THAT much about consistency. Plus, I get him confused with Arrieta, so I blame that.
Lack of walks is a real problem, but if he’s Pedro Feliz at the catcher position, which is what I’d expect from his minors hitting line, that’s pretty valuable, particularly if he’s actually a plus defender.
I still want to see Cunningham polled. And don’t make me start posting my Sean Doolittle screed on every thread until he gets added to the testers.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 19, 2008 3:22 PM EST
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Which
rule put Aumont back on the tester list?
by METSMETSMETS on
Nov 19, 2008 4:20 PM EST
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So no one will yell ballot stuffing
because it is not a SF, A’s or Rangers prospect
was fairly even across the board….
by laxtonto on
Nov 19, 2008 7:28 PM EST
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