Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Nov 18, 2008 11:32 PM EST
104 comments
My personal favorite Oriole of all time is Ken Singleton.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Matt Wieters, C, Grade A: Best prospect in baseball. Mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza.
2) Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+: Want to see sharper command, but I’m very impressed overall, especially given his age.
3) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade B+: Not David Price, but should advance quickly due to sharp command of solid stuff.
4) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: Very high ceiling, command still an issue at times, but can dominate.
5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B: Made progress after difficult ’07 season. Double-A transition critical.
6) Nolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-: A bit old for a prospect now, but power bat should carry forward.
7) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B-: Love the groundballs this guy gets, young, good stuff, a sleeper.
8) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-: Horrible glove, but bat took a big step forward last year.
9) David Hernandez, RHP, Grade B-: I still think people are underrating this guy. Needs to lower walks.
10) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C+: If health reports are accurate, he should rebound. Useful pitcher but not likely a star.
11) Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+: I am Mickolio. I need control for my fastball. Waahhooo…arrruuddicacacaa
12) Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade C+: I will cut him slack due to youth, but at some point he needs to hit. Bad reports about makeup are troublesome.
13) Ryan Adams, 2B, Grade C+: Interesting bat, raw, needs better discipline.
14) Xavier Avery, OF, Grade C+: Very fast, very young, raw, won’t move fast.
15) Oliver Drake, RHP, Grade C+: For some reason, this guy stands out as a sleeper to me.
16) Brad Bergesen, RHP, Grade C+: Polished strike-thrower type. For some reason I like him. Maybe a Grade C?
17) Pedro Beato, RHP, Grade C: Velocity down, mechanics a mess, reportedly did well in instructional league.
18) Caleb Joseph, C, Grade C: Good glove, power bat, but plate discipline a question.
19) Lou Montanez, OF, Grade C: Too old for higher grade, could rank higher on this list if you want immediate impact.
20) L.J. Hoes, 2B, Grade C: Fast, gets on base, athletic, a long way away.
Others include Colin Allen, Matt Angle, Jose Barajas, Tim Bascom, Jesse Beal, Jason Berken, Bobby Bundy, Tony Butler, Mike Costanzo, Tyler Henson, Kyle Hudson, Bob McCrory, Greg Miclat, Nathan Moreau, Wilfrido Perez, Felix Romero, Chorye Spoone, and Richard Zagone are also included and should be considered interchangeable with the Grade Cs above depending on what you want to emphasize.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
Grade-wise, I think I like Hernandez more than most people, but that’s been true for three years. The guys 13-20 are all pretty tentative with the grades, lots of Cs I considered for C+ in this group, and some of that will change.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF: This organization has rapidly improved over the last couple of years. Drafting early has helped that, but willingness to actually spend money on good players (Wieters, Arrrieta, Matusz) is a key factor that some other early-drafting teams have missed. Trades have helped bring additional depth, and they’ve shown some ability to develop sleeper types. High school bats such as Snyder and Rowell have brought mixed results, but overall the level of talent in the farm system is something that
Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order now for January 31st shipping.
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Before 2008, I think a lot of people would have been very surprised if you said Spoone and Butler wouldn’t be top 20 after the season. There were likely people who would have predicted they’d be in the top 10 now, but that’s prospecting for you.
by rdf8585 on Nov 19, 2008 12:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see Spoone
At least in the top 15. I think that if the rehab goes well, he has a higher ceiling than even Arrieta with the amount of velocity and movement on his pitches. I’m guessing the shoulder problems knocked him off your list?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hope Mr. Sickels finds a chance to dig deeper into Spoone.
The O’s just added Spoone to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft despite the fact that Spoone will spend at least a good part of the upcoming season on the DL. Clearly, the Oriole organization is worried that other organizations are higher on Spoone than John Sickels is.
Of course his injury downgrades him. He may never be the same. But I think if Mr. Sickels finds the time to talk with some ‘in the know’ scouts specifically regarding Spoone, he won’t describe Spoone as interchangeable with that list of ‘C’ players.
by TakebackOPACY on Nov 22, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
spoone
I know all about Spoone, and have rated him highly in the past.
Shoulder surgery scares me.
by John Sickels on Nov 22, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Fair enough and thanks for the response. His downgrade to a ‘C’ under the circumstances would be more understandable to me if it weren’t for the scattering of players with the same rating who probably have substantially lower upsides. As an O’s fan, of course I’ll be hoping for the best for those players too.
by TakebackOPACY on Nov 22, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no prob
No problem. It is my general policy to give a pitcher with a shoulder injury a substantial downgrade in rating.
by John Sickels on Nov 23, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think downgading him out...
…is the absolute right way to grade him. For Os fans out there, look at it this way, if he were ranked in the Top 20 in a season where he is not expected to play because of major shoulder surgery (not TJ), that says more about the farm system than about Spoone.
Right now he is a sleeper and, outside of a major comeback season, probably not reach the same status he had before. That’s not to say he can’t/won’t be good. He might. But he might have to do it relatively quietly. He will be outshadowed by higher profile guys in his same system. That might be a perfect situation for him in some respects from having to come back from injury.
by basemonkey on Nov 23, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too generous on Snyder
29:83 BB/K ratio, bad plate discipline, .366 BABIP. Unless he can suddenly go back to catching, he’s a non-prospect.
by number_twentyone on Nov 19, 2008 12:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think it's in his splits that tells...
…the real story.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would still take Butler over
Bergesen and Drake.
Bergesen – a 4.38 K/9 in AA this year as a 22 year old… how can a guy like that ever succeed in the majors?
Drake – Who? What?
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 12:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
See further down for comments on Butler
Bergesen is a sinkerballer, but I agree that he will struggle in the majors if he doesn’t miss more bats. He has better potential in the bullpen.
Drake is a big right-hander with a live arm. He fell to the 43rd round because he was a draft-eligible sophomore out of the Naval Academy that supposedly didn’t make the radar of anyone but the local Orioles. Drake is a deep sleeper with a very low national profile, so I think it speaks very well of John that he picked up on him.
I’d rank both above Butler as well.
by dkdc on Nov 19, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sinkerballer or no
If youre only striking out less than 4.5 out of 9 guys in AA there is ZERO chance you succeed at the MLB level. Can’t be done. Impossible. What’s his K rate going to be at the MLB level, 3 per 9 IP?
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM comparing Bergesen to Roy Halladay
But, Halladay had a K/9 in the 4.5 to 5.5 range across AA and AAA. But if there’s any projection left with Bergesen and he really does keep the ball on the ground to an extreme level, he might have a tiny prayer of succeeding at the MLB level.
by jibs on Nov 19, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think john has been putting in too many hours
11) Kam “The Almighty” Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+: I am Mickolio. I need control for my fastball. Waahhooo…arrruuddicacacaa
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 19, 2008 12:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
I was just about to say the same thing.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 19, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No big deal
he just needs some TP and some cappaccino for his bunghole fastball.
by slurve on Nov 19, 2008 9:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I <3 Beavis
The early episodes of that show in particular were absolutely incredible.
by D O on Nov 19, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope
Mickolio makes it to the majors so i can say that over and over.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 19, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just one small question
is it possible for A+? How close does Wieters come to this if possible?
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on Nov 19, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Early picks and early-middle picks....
The Os have been doing pretty solidly with their early rounds and also picking up players who drop due to signability (e.g. Wieters, Arrieta), as well factoring in geographic preferences on draftees (e.g. Snyder and Erbe). It seems like a ton of their top prospects are from early round draft picks, which bodes well overall. Like John also mentioned, they seem to have quite a few C grade sleepers (i.e. D Hernandez, Britton, Patton, Chorye Spoone, Bergesen, McCrory, etc..) who might make some nice contribution at the majors.
Part of the reason for this is that their Director of Scouting, Ed Jordan, received a generous increase in budget when he first came in, and he’s used it to create a year long scouting program with several teams of scouts looking at players from the very first day the draft is over until the day it starts. MacPhail has expanded the the scouting program to develop the International program. If there is one criticism here it’s that for a contemporary baseball organization, there’s not enough International players here.
I think the Orioles might need one more year until they have a chance at creating a steadier stream of quality prospects hitting the major leagues consistently. MacPhail’s major league and AAA rosters feel a little thin right now, but, in the meantime, Orioles fans might have to live with seeing Wieters and Markakis grow.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 1:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Disappointments...
The list of guys who need to turn it around might just include Rowell and Beato. Rowell could turn it around but I think Beato has been nosediving for a while now. Players who will have a pivotal season, one way or another, in 2009 will be Erbe, Snyder, Reimold, Patton, Mickolio, Butler, McCrory, Spoone. The reaches on that list are Penn and Montanez. I’m personally not sold on Ryan Adams, sort of a dime-a-dozen 2B prospect every org seems to have and a bit of a crapshoot to see if a high contact rate speedy bat can reach the majors.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also completely ripping off Bill Bavasi helped
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's about time we hear from some Ms fans now.
Just to recap:
SP Erik Bedard
FOR
CF Adam Jones
SP Chris Tillman
CL George Sherrill
SP Tony Butler
SP/RP Kam Mickilio
Wow. Just wow. Good going, Os fans.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SS Miguel Tejada
FOR
LFLuke Scott
SP Troy Patton
SP/RP Matt Albers
RPDennis Sarfate
3B Mike Costanzo
All will be crucial players on the O’s sans Costanzo, who still has a chance to come up as a utility guy. Now Andy needs to flip Roberts and Huff to really get things going.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 7:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What Have you done for me lately syndrome
Bullocks. Bedard put up sick, non-fluke numbers in 2007. Adam Jones hit .270 w/ 9 HR’s, Sherrill shitty season is forgotten due to his 31 saves and Tillman, while a decent prospect, is far from bullet-proof.
by slurve on Nov 19, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you arguing that the Orioles would be better off with Bedard over those 5 players?
Sick, non-fluke 2007 numbers aside, the Orioles were not going to win the division in 2008 or 2009, and Bedard has always been a ticking time bomb with injuries. That was a fantastic haul for Bedard, and pretty much everybody knew it as soon as the deal was made.
by jibs on Nov 19, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not at all
It was absolutely good for the Orioles. At the same time, it wasn’t a case of robbing Bavasi blind.
by slurve on Nov 19, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Context
I think that most people saw it as a good deal for the Os and a risky one for the Ms, particularly since Bedard’s injury risk was noted at the time.
But the main criticism of the deal had less to do with talent and more with context — dealing those guys for Bedard might have been a worthwhile risk for a team that was one pitcher away from contending … Bavasi apparently thought that the Mariners were that team, while almost everyone else understood that they had overachieved in 2007 and needed to continue to build their core. So the real problem for the Mariners wasn’t the talent in the deal per se, but that they should have been hanging on to their young talent and looking towards 2009-10, not selling it off for a risky but high-upside play for 2008.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Nov 19, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It absolutely was
There was no chance it was ever a good deal for a M’s team that everyone except Bavasi knew wasnt very good. Adam Jones alone would have been a bad deal – and would have been a bad deal already.
Even if Bedard had repeated his 06 performance I would contend this was a stupid trade and Bavasi got ripped off. He blew his load at the wrong time and acquired the wrong guy – who everyone knew was a personality problem and injury risk, though this didnt stop Bavasi from ripping him to the press when the ship started to go down.
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
What a horrible trade that was. Adam Jones had a great 2nd half and all season played great defense, he’s a piece you build around. Sherrill still dominated lefties, that type of arm and under control for 3 more years at chump change brings a lot in trade value. Tillman is a little more than a “decent” prospect. Tony Butler is more of a decent prospect as is Kam Mickolio.
Bedard’s sick 2007 numbers is a classic sell-high case.
by cowboy4eva on Nov 19, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would say it was pretty much robbing Bavasi blind.
The Ms entering ’08 saw themselves as contenders and 1 player away from making a lot of noise. Bavasi was entering his contract year so, like he has done in the past, he gambled. It was the kind of gamble where they went all-in and Bedard would have to duplicate his ’07 numbers just to break even considering what they gave up.
You can denigrate what the Os got back all you want, but just receiving one of Adam Jones or a Chris Tillman would have been a solid haul. The fact that pretty much every player the Os received was productive or excelled makes this deal a score for the Os.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Its not like the players the M’s traded needed to become Superstars for this to be a tragic trade. The amount of value they gave up would make me quit following baseball if I was a Seattle fan… or hunt down and kill Bill Bavasi.
And if this trade didnt do it the Johjima extension would have. Or Jose Vidro as every day DH. Or trading Asdrubal Cabrera for a platoon 1B.
by alskor on Nov 19, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Latin America
There does seem to be a distinct lack of foreign born prospects in this system. Are the other organizations who do as poorly in this area as the Orioles?
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Nov 19, 2008 1:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tony Butler
Why so low?
Has he lost stuff, or just failed to put it together?
by siddfynch on Nov 19, 2008 7:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fastball velocity has ticked down
And he struggled with injuries.
by dkdc on Nov 19, 2008 8:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
yes, velocity and health drop him down
by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2008 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matusz
I’d have him as #2 in the system and an A-.
He has three major league pitches now, and his makeup and pitchability are off the charts.
by dkdc on Nov 19, 2008 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's possible...eventually....
I think even Wieters was graded as B+ the year he was drafted. Only after this past year’s phenomenal performance does he now get A grades by pretty much everyone. B+ right out of the draft is quite high if you ask me.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
B+
I am very very reluctant to give a Grade A or A- without seeing how a player adapts to pro ball. B+ is high praise for a guy who hasn’t pitched yet. Arizona doesn’t count.
by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Arizona is an extremely small sample, but it did confirm that Matusz can more than hold in what is essentially a AA/AAA hitter’s league.
Last year I see that Price got an A and Wieters got an A-. I’d still give Matusz an A-, but I understand your caution. I’m certainly higher on Matusz than most.
by dkdc on Nov 19, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you gave Hosmer ans A or A-? (I forgot) He only had 11 at bats.
by Orioles77 on Nov 20, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Moore
Whatever happened to Scott Moore. I know the git hurt, they sent him back to the minors to try shortstop again and he struggled. But here’s a guy who’s now 25 and could be, at the least, a nice platoon player at 3B and 1B. Sure the strikeouts a a lot, but he also has pretty good power. It’s certainly better than wasting money and time on the Kevin Millars of the world.
What’s the chances that he every gets a shot?
by Montreal97 on Nov 19, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Moore suffers from Mora's contract...
Giving Mora a no trade clause was going to hurt one way or another. Not that Moore is a lock to even be a ML regular or Utility man, but trying him out at SS is a tough challenge to ask. SS guys can go to 3B, but it’s hard to go the other direction.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dag... tough grades
Tillman is a B+?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Nov 19, 2008 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
65 BB in 135 2/3 IP
Crushing AA at 20 is very, very good — but Tillman definitely still has a weakness in his game.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 20, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point.
Like so many pitchers in the minors, the walk rate is his project to work on. The pre-MacPhail Orioles have rushed their pitchers and ignored command issues, hoping to solve it in the majors. It will be interesting to see if and how they handle Tillman here.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Spoone
I believe Spoone should be in the top 20 and Beato should not. Spoone’s injury is a concern but to compare him with Felix Romero, who I consider is just a organizatonal filler. Beato continues to slide downward in a hurry.
by orioole26 on Nov 19, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is actually a good point on Spoone
The Beato train has left or been leaving for a while now. Spoone had a strong campaign in ‘07. 2008 was a lost year due to injury. He wasn’t that effective for the short time he was in there though, but, I may place him higher than Beato.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wieters
The Orioles getting Wieters was 50% dumb luck- an even worse team deliberately passed on taking him- even though they had the money to do so- just so its GM could blow the money on a seasoned veteran 2 months later in a desperate attempt to save his job…
At least Angelos didn’t step in at the last minute to demand that they draft a college starter.
by jpwf13 on Nov 19, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
At least Angelos didn’t step in at the last minute to demand that they draft a college starter
Round here that’s called progress!
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Nov 19, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
It was pure luck that he dropped down, but in years past, the Orioles would not have taken a Scott Boras agent demanding that much money. So for us, it was a big step.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's interesting that...
Wieters gets picked #5 overall. 4 teams pass on Wieters. And you still have a way of calling the Os next to worst somehow? Price is understandable but there were at least 3 other teams that picked before the Os.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I assume
the criticism is directed at the Pirates’ inexplicable choice of Moskos at #4. You can’t really argue that it was an obvious error to draft David Price, Mike Moustakas, or Josh Vitters over Wieters at the time.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 20, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that...
…the post seemed to criticize the Orioles for doing the right move. Criticizing the Orioles is such an old standby position by baseball fans that they do it out of habit. The Os deserve a lot of that criticism over the last 12 years, but, the Orioles of late has been doing the right moves. That needs some credit.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
The organization is stockpiling pitching prospects, and that’s the most important first step towards non-suckiness.
The question is where the organization goes from here. I was not encouraged by the 2008 Rule 4 draft. No, to be clear: I hated the O’s 2008 draft. Even if Matusz is a better prospect than Smoak (and I’m not sure he is), I just couldn’t understand how an organization with basically one hitting prospect could pass on the can’t-miss slugger this team needs. And then pick after pick in the next rounds being spent on slap-hitting speedster athletes?
That just doesn’t seem like a valid strategy for a team that has Markakis, Adam Jones, Wieters and… perhaps the back end of Brian Roberts’ career? The possibility that Nolan Reimold turns into the next, I don’t know, Mark Teahen or something? And this is a problem in 2009, not just long-term. I don’t see how you solve the “no first baseman, no shortstop, no third baseman” problem by drafting pitchers and high school track stars.
Thoughts?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 20, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, just maybe...
They drafted the best player available on their draft board. You don’t go for need in the MLB draft.
And then after you talk about the Orioles needs, you have a problem with Matusz over Smoak? The Orioles only have 1 person in their rotation next season for sure. ONE.
by cowboy4eva on Nov 20, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because
The Orioles have one starting pitcher at the ML level and need all the arms they can get? They obviously don’t draft for need and were taking the best player available.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 20, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, drafting and developing proportionally more pitchers than...
…other positions is a philosophy a lot of clubs employ. Some teams like the Orioles have sort of a tradition in it. No team in the majors is populated by exclusively homegrown players. In fact most teams don’t. The point of any farm system is to create assets that can be used directly towards the major league team, or, in trades to fill needs.
In theory if a team did develop a surplus of pitching, they’d have a very scarce product that is more valuable than value/position hitting prospects bring. This scarcity increases their value that can be used in trades. For instance a comparably gifted hitter position player to Bedard would have perhaps not returned the same package he did for the Orioles. If you take the rumored offers for Miguel Tejada when he was at his peak value, they were just nothing close to what Bedard snagged, and Tejada was certainly a more proven star by then coming off a strong RBI season and a HR Derby contest win.
Today we see in free agency very average starting pitchers collect very expensive longterm contracts, bad pitchers even garner good interest, and this current crop is maybe the first time #1 type SPs have even reached Free Agency. Those players are usually quickly locked up by their clubs. C.C. Sabathia is certainly a top level quality arm, but, it’s not as if he is Pedro Martinez in his peak but he will receive a contract that says he is.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"slap hitting speedster athletes"
I assume you are referring to Xavier Avery, L.J. Hoes, Kyle Hudson, and Greg Miclat. I think you are unfairly pigeon holing 3/4 of these players. The Orioles envision Avery developing power as he matures, and eventually becoming a Carl Crawford type player. Obviously Crawford is much more than a slap hitter. L.J. Hoes is neither a slap hitter nor a speedster. Hoes has above average tools across the board, except maybe on defense as he played in the outfield in high school. Although he didn’t show it in his professional debut he has fair power, great plate discipline, and projects be a 12-20 guy down the road. Hudson, I will concede, is pretty close to a slap hitter. Miclat on the other hand has shown the ability to drive the ball. He played college baseball at the University of Virginia which has a huge stadium. Combine the pitcher-friendly home park and UVA’s coaches’ notorious belief in shortening up and using the whole field, and it is quite possible that at another school Miclat would have shown significantly more power.
by Birdfan01 on Nov 20, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff, but a few nits:
1. Certainly stockpiling young arms is a good first step, but — as I said in my initial comment — it’s just a first step. I don’t know of a single farm system that I would categorize as “good” that is as bereft of hitting depth as the Orioles’.
Don’t misunderstand me: I’m not saying that the Orioles can’t develop a good farm system — I’m just saying that right now it’s still a work in progress. Given the past decade, I’m pessimistic that the work will be completed but prepared to be pleasantly surprised.
2. Good teams make trades to fill needs — I totally agree. So far, though, we haven’t seen the Orioles do this. What we’ve seen them do is rip off Seattle for Bedard (good trade!), but I suspect you’d agree with me that Adam Jones was not “targeted” to fill a need — it was simply a case of maximizing the return on a top trading chit like Bedard.
Now, again, maybe we just don’t know what’s going on — maybe the Orioles have been working the phones with Tampa Bay (Reid Brignac) and Milwaukee (Alcides Escobar) and elsewhere trying to get a good young shortstop. But we don’t have any evidence of this.
What we do have is a rather disturbing pattern of the team signing Type A free agents and forfeiting draft picks to fill perceived short-term needs (Jamie Walker!).
Be honest: don’t you think there’s a good chance the Orioles will make some sort of insane multi-year offer to Orlando Cabrera and/or Edgar Renteria this offseason? And isn’t that precisely the sort of mindset that’s gotten the team INTO this mess?
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the team can avoid the temptation to decimate it’s ‘09 draft by not signing Type A free agents — but the reports coming out of the Sun — Burnett, Teixeira, and (of all people) Manny Ramirez — those aren’t encouraging signs.
3. I’m not sure that top pitchers fetch more in trade than top hitters. If you want to throw anecdotes around, take a look at the trade for (say) Jason Bay at last year’s deadline. Or Manny. Or Teixeira. There’s certainly a widespread belief that pitchers bring more in trade, but I’m not sure it matches up to reality.
4. I also think it’s false to claim that pitchers draw more in free agency, and I can think of some #1s who have gone free agent in the past at or near their prime — Maddux and David Cone in ’92, and Mussina in 2000 come immediately to mind — and none of those guys got record-setting deals.
Just take a look at the venerable Cot’s Contracts site, and you’ll see that only 2 of the top 10 and 5 of the top 20 of the highest dollar-value contracts have gone to pitchers.
In sum: I’m not sure we disagree over much. The Orioles have the best prospect in baseball (Wieters) and three very good pitching prospects behind him. But I think there’s a lot of work left to do, and a lot of room for skepticism given the history of this franchise.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 21, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Macphail
There have been strong signs that the Orioles are a lot different right now than the late 90s and/or early 00s. I’ll go into it more later.
by basemonkey on Nov 21, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AdrewTorrez
Do some research: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles21nov21,0,7349509.story. The article explicitly states that the O’s have no interest in Cabrera or Renteria.
by Birdfan01 on Nov 21, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, don't be a jerk
“Do some research” isn’t really a productive statement, Senor Know-it-all.
The Sun is reporting that right now the Orioles have no interest in those guys. But after the team makes big money (but ultimately losing) offers to Teixeira, Burnett, and maybe Manny, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them take that money and throw it around at other FAs. It’s a typical pattern for a lot of teams, and especially the Orioles. Or have you not been “doing research” about this team for the past decade?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True but...
…one might expect the Orioles to overpay big based on the last 10 years of track record but, we should give MacPhail the benefit of the doubt. He has sent a lot of clear signals since he took over and I don’t think anyone cannot say the Orioles are in full rebuild mode, which in itself, is a change. The desire to compete AND rebuild simultaneously might have been at the heart of this team’s dysfunction the last 10 years. He’s sent signals to the contrary. He’s cut the major league budget and re-routed it to minor league signings, expanded to hire more scouts, installed an academy and prescence in Asia, and upgraded facitilities in Latin America. The most visible act was probably doing what every other Orioles GM would often profess to do, that is, build the farm back up, but often times shy away from doing what it took: trading away quality major leguers at or near their peaks in order to restock the farm. He’s done that with a good return.
It’s fair to have doubts right now since their last spending spree was not too long ago, that is, questionable bullpen signs but that was Flanagan’s last act, not MacPhail. I think anyone who follows this organization through the minors can see on the ground level, subtle but profound changes for the better. The overall talent level is a reflection of that.
by basemonkey on Nov 23, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I pretty much agree
…entirely with what you’ve said, and basically it’s a question of temperament whether you want to give MacPhail the benefit of the doubt.
My only quibble with what you’ve said is that I don’t know if you can say the team is in “full” rebuilding mode. “Full,” to me, would indicate having traded Huff, Sherrill, and probably B. Rob.
Again, there’s a degree of unknown here — maybe the Orioles didn’t get good enough offers for Huff at the trade deadline. But I think we probably agree it’s obvious Huff needs to be shopped aggressively this offseason.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Consider it this way...
“"Full," to me, would indicate having traded Huff, Sherrill, and probably B. Rob”
Fair enough. I actually completely agree. If I were to play GM here, I’d liquidate all major league assets as soon as possible to retool the organization. The only caveat to that is that one must exert wise timing of trades, and not foolishly trade for the sake of trading in order to fit into a definition of “full rebuilding,” or promote players to the majors prematurely perhaps stunting their growth.
For instance, trading Huff before the 2008 season would have been a fairly meaningless trade. Trading him now may get back a solid prospect, maybe two. Trading Roberts should be done as soon as possible. Last offseason the rumored deals with the Cubs would have been mostly inconsequential moves. MacPhail was right to wait for the right package. Sherrill’s value has was strong as a specialist LHRP last offseason but his value has now increased after a solid run as a closer. In each case, the alternative move would have left the Orioles trading away players before their values reached a high so it’s hard to fault MacPhail for not trading these players. The pre-MacPhail Orioles would have surely held onto these players until they squeezed out all possible value.
Since baseball is a team sport, one can make the argument that to take out these players from the major league roster would have created different roles and workloads for the players that the future truly does rest upon. Stats (esp. pitching) are so interdependent that of all teams’ fans, Orioles fans know what a bad bullpen does to the numbers of the rotation. Ask Jeremy Guthrie. Even the Marlins during their rebuild years had veterans players like Leiter and Conine to act as role models. Teams like the As in their rebuild years had Matt Stairs, John Jaha, Kenny Rogers, Appier to guide the younger generation. As a matter of fact, generally speaking, I think it usually takes a team longer to work out of the vicious circles that are created by inter-dependent failure if a rebuilding team replaces every position with a raw young player. The veteran mix strategy does tend to work, if all of the other decisions are smart.
by basemonkey on Nov 24, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth...
I would love to see Teixeira in an Orioles uniform because he has been in the picture to be an Oriole ever since he was drafted. That being said, I am torn because I am not entirely sold that that would be what’s best for the longterm future. For instance, if signing him meant losing a 2nd rounder (the picks the Os’ve used to pick dropped-due-to-signability players) or scaling back some part of the Player Development/Drafting progress the os have done in the last few years, I think it might be a mistake.
by basemonkey on Nov 24, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good to see
Britton and D-Hernandez get some credit. I thought LJ Hoes should be a bit higher but it’s obviously early when it comes to evaluating him.
by cowboy4eva on Nov 19, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Singleton
Going back to Singleton I grew up a Met fan back when they traded him Foli and Jorgenson for Staub, and later on Staub for Lolich, and later back for Foli, and back for Jorgenson and back for Staub in a series of moves that destroyed so much value that Mets ownership is awfully lucky that blogs like this didn’t exist in those days. The one guy we never got back in all this was Singleton, and certainly judging by what was still left in the tank at the time this merry go round started, he was the best of the whole lot.
by Dalman on Nov 19, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mickolio
should be higher. A power pitcher who gets grounders is golden (and yes, I know he has issues with his mechanics)
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
by MikeE on Nov 19, 2008 7:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mickolio could be higher but...
It’s hard for me to personally place him, one who really projects as a RP, in front of Hernandez, Patton, or Britton who all have strong track records of success as starters.
by basemonkey on Nov 19, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but
he has better stuff and health than all of them.
Even though he’s gotten a lot of strikeouts in his career, Hernandez doesn’t have a consistent bat-missing pitch. His walk rate went in the wrong direction last year, and except for one five-start stretch in June, he was very hittable when the batters made contact. I think his numbers are a bit misleading; I don’t see him as being terribly likely to have long-term success.
Patton’s a big question mark until he proves he’s healthy.
I like Britton’s potential, but his secondary offerings need work. Right now he has two pitches; he’s not going to succeed as a starter until a third one comes along, and the minors and the back end of major league bullpens are full of guys who could never quite develop that third pitch.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
by MikeE on Nov 19, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hernandez
For a guy without “a consistent bat-missing pitch” he gets an awful lot of K’s.
Im not saying youre wrong…
by alskor on Nov 20, 2008 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Missing bats????
Are you crazy? That’s the best thing he does!!! He lead the Carolina League with 168 strikeouts and then lead the Eastern League the following year with 167 strikeouts and also had a BAA of .217 which means that the hitters didn’t get a whole lot of hits off him either!!! By the way he was 2nd in all of minor leagues his strikeouts(minorleague-reference.com as source). When you talk about health??? Hernandez missed 1 start since his pro career and that’s because he was sick!!! If Hernandez doesn’t make it as a starter he will definitely make it as a setup/closer role before Mickolio will ever be!!! Also when you look at what he did when runner on base he was nails!!! With runners on they batted .202 and when they were in scoring postion they batted .161. By the way his slider is a batt missing pitch which was voted by BA as the best pitch in the organization. Yes, command is a issue in ‘08 but if he can have a BB/9 like he did in ’07(2.91), then he is a possible 3/4 starter and there is no reason why he can’t!! I could go on and on but Hernandez is the better prospect at this point!!
Patton by the way has been throwing the ball really good at instructs and if thats the case he is also a better prospect than Mickolio.
Do your research!!
by orioole26 on Nov 20, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BAA is not a predictive stat
So that actually undercuts your argument. I didn’t see Hernandez pitch this year, so I can’t really comment on the quality of his slider (although I don’t put much stock in BA ratings).
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 20, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't either
But I thought I throw that in!! But he does have a very good slider that makes hitter absolutely buckle. That’s the problem people make this outlandish comments and have never seen him pitch!!!
by orioole26 on Nov 20, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
H/9 not to shabby either
For pitchers who were starters Hernandez was 2nd in the league and 11th overall!!
by orioole26 on Nov 20, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Typical classic projection stats for pitchers are: K/9, K/BB, HR/9, H/9, and mix in some BABIP.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Predictive of what?
In the sense that it’s not repeatable?
by siddfynch on Nov 20, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I assume...
he meant predictive of MLB success, or, at least reach the majors.
by basemonkey on Nov 21, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah
But more specifically, I meant predictive in terms of one year to the next.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 21, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Boy did miss something here
Doesn’t that hold true to most stats??? Then how do you explain is BB/9 in ’07(2.91) vs in ’08(4.53). All stats change year to year, as far as I know. . .
by orioole26 on Nov 21, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Primer
Okay, let me try to summarize briefly. Sure: stats change from year to year, and particularly with minor-leaguers, players develop skills, get better at certain things, etc.
But the goal in having statistics is to describe (in rough terms, at least!) what you can expect from a player. If a guy hits 30 HR in MLB in 600 PAs, you have at least a rough sense of what he’s likely to do next year if you give him another 600 plate appearances. Home runs, at the major-league level, is thus what we call a “predictive” stat.
On the other hand — for example — “batting average with runners in scoring position” (RISP) is a strictly descriptive stat. A guy might hit .400 with RISP one year and .150 the next; there’s basically no correlation from year-to-year, and thus, we conclude that AVG with RISP is not predictive.
A pitcher’s average-against falls much closer to the latter side of the spectrum than the former.
So what that means (in terms of this thread) is that you have no reason to expect hitters to bat .217 against Hernandez in 2009. Moreover, the fact that he had a very low BAA is actually a somewhat negative indicator; it means that if he regresses to the mean in 2009 you can expect worse results even if he pitches just as well as he did this year.
Make sense?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 21, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This part I don't understand
"the fact that he had a very low BAA is actually a somewhat negative indicator; it means that if he regresses to the mean in 2009 "
Could explain that part?
by orioole26 on Nov 21, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No worries
Don’t worry, orioole26. You don’t understand because it’s incorrect. There’s a strong inverse relationship between K/9 and baa. That is, a pitcher with a high K/9 (D. Hernandez) will have a low baa. A pitcher with a low K/9 (B. Bergesen) will have a high baa. So there’s no reason to look at David’s 2008 baa and think he’ll “regress to the mean” next year. To what mean? To whose mean? Also, obviously H/9 and baa have a lot in common.
As he progresses, he’ll see his baa go up slightly because he’ll be facing better hitters with a better eye. Just like his K/9 will go down slightly for the same reason.
There’s a problem though. These stats don’t stand by themselves. Why is his walk rate high? What will happen when he faces more selective hitters? Will he take something off? Will that lower his K/9 and raise his baa? Or will he pitch the way he’s pitching now and see his walk rate go even higher?
Back to Andrew’s ‘Primer’: Orioole26, you of all people should appreciate Andrew’s baa w/ RISP example. We hoped D. Hernandez’ 2007 baa w/ RISP was a fluke and that he would regress to the mean. He did in 2008. Now, we have to be realistic and say that his awesome 2008 baa w/ RISP exceeded the norm and will regress as well.
Anyway, none of the good ‘predictor’ stats are good by themselves. But baa sure as heck isn’t a negative indicator.
by TakebackOPACY on Nov 22, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta add this
Since my first post on this site sounds like I’m picking a fight with AndrewTorrez, I have to add this:
Andrew, you seem like a bright guy. Just because I challenge your thinking on this one point (baa being a possible negative indicator) doesn’t mean I haven’t enjoyed reading your insightful posts. I have even though you’re pretty cynical. I can’t blame you for that. You’re an O’s fan.
by TakebackOPACY on Nov 22, 2008 12:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense taken
I think you’re wrong, though. BAA includes two components: K rate (which the pitcher can control) and BABIP (which the pitcher generally can’t). So there is a signal component, but there’s also a significant noise component — and I did say this was a primer-style overview and not an in-depth analysis.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 23, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I never entered this argument because I find...
..it fairly obvious that .BAA can be an unreliable stat to project major league success. To me it’s on par with using ERA and WINS as an indication. To extend TakebackOPACY’s point, if a prospect collects 12 wins out of 15 starts though, it surely is NOT a negative mark against the pitcher, just like if that same pitcher gave up a miniscule amount of hits to go with it. My approach is to lok at the traditional scouting stats, and these other ones typically follow along. In rare cases, one might have a pitcher with a aggressively skewed portfolio where ONLY their BAA is at above-average levels. That in itself should be a red flag, when one has a single set of outliers. In general, I think the primary point here is Hernandez is a good prospect with a lot of stats that say so. The fact that one doesn’t have to cherry-pick any particular stat to say so is a good thing. If there is any blemish, as it has been mentioned before, it is his K/BB rates.
As it has been stated here before, as he rises thru the system, one should expect the K rate to deteriorate somewhat. In other words, how low can that k total go until the walks becomes a liability? He has good stuff but he doesn’t have a kind of dominating Harden-type fastball that one can expect that K-rate to breakthrough to the majors relatively unscathed. To be a major leaguer of note, at some point, his walk rate must be fixed. That being said, a TON of good prospects have the same problem and have turned into solid major leaguers. A ton have not. To his credit he has not underperformed in his career; he’s always over-performed expectations and those kinds of sleepers generally do well.
by basemonkey on Nov 23, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Hernandez
and I have seen him pitch and Mickolio many times. Hernandez, IMO, is the better prospect because if he can’t make it as a starter and there is no reason to believe he can’t, but Hernandez can be turned into a setup/closer. Only having to pitch an inning or two I believe his fastball then would move up a few ticks(currently at 92-94mph but when he needs to he can dial it up to 96mph). His slider is the only thing BA got right!! I agree with you on BA ratings!! They are a joke, IMO!! His slider can be his best pitch, needs better command, but once he does could be another Brad Lidge, it’s a stretch. And by the way Mark E., when you lead the league in consecutive years, you have to be missing something. How did you come to a conclusion that Mickolio was healthier than Hernandez!! Mickolio is overated by BA and Sickels, IMO. The OH’s has him ranked 23 I believe and who wouldn’t know the Orioles system better than them!!
by slappy12 on Nov 21, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wieters by far the best prospect I seen this year
and i saw Bruce, Martinez, Snider, Niese, Murphy, Sandoval.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 19, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Concur.
I’ve personally seen Bruce, FMart, Rasmus, Snider, Fowler, Maybin, LaPorta. Wieters is the only bonafide elite position prospect who doesn’t have a weakness in any area. There’s nothing he does or doesn’t do to count against him. K rate, walk rate, power, doubles power, avg, contact rate, obp, isolated power, babip, defense, arm strength. If there is anything as a catcher he may stay in the minors to work on more right now it’s supposedly calling a game. It’s not that he’s bad at that at all, in fact he’s supposedly instinctively very good. It’s just something he can get better with more experience.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speed...
True. Let’s just say he’s the fastest 6’5" 230lb catcher in baseball….but won’t catch a bus on foot. He’s not “slow” but he’s not “fast.” He’s not a liability there.
by basemonkey on Nov 20, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wieters called an amazing game for Jason Berkins
Berkins threw 8 scoreless innings dominanting the BMets.
by Bravesin07 on Nov 20, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There are not to many fast catchers so speed is nothing to worry about with Wieters.
by Orioles77 on Nov 20, 2008 9:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It becomes a problem if a guy is so slow that he is a burden on the base path, but that isn’t a problem for Matt.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Nov 20, 2008 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Elvin Polanco
2005 UDFA Elvin Polanco (1B) ranked among the Appy League leaders in OPS (.895), ISO (.219), wOBA (.400), RC/27 (7.69), HR (10), and RBI (42)
While he was a bit old for the level at 21, it was only his second pro season and his offensive averages improved across the board from his 2007 in the GCL despite a .025 drop in BABIP.
Maybe we need to see another season based on his age/level? Has anyone seen him play? He’s listed as 6’3" and only 190 lbs., so I’m wondering if he looks like a guy who still has room to fill out and have a power breakout at some point.
by TheWhaleLives on Nov 21, 2008 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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