Fernando MANIA!

by Duece on Nov 18, 2008 4:08 PM EST Comment 18 comments

Lol, JK.

But after an injury plagued year in which Fernando put up average numbers in AA (which is still impresive considering his age) he was sent to winter ball to get more AB's..

After getting off to a somewhat poor start, Fernando has gotten extremely hot, and for the first time in a long time, has gotten in a real groove at the plate.

I know, it's winter ball, but it's still nice to see him hitting and staying healthy..

.394/.438/.652/1.090 with 9 XBH in 66 AB

If the Mets weren't overloaded with left handed batters, I wouldn't put it past the Mets to start him in LF this year.. However, they are, so he'll start in AAA, and prob be the first call-up in case of injury..

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fernando was the big “no way” guy the twins asked about last year….and the mets then defied how i figured they’d aggressively promote him by not having him in the majors for extended time already….much to the mets’ credit, of course, though i think the emergence of some guys above him on the prospect ladder probably took that idea out of their head more than they decided against it…

i own him in a fantasy dynasty league (where i also have maybin, carlos gonzalez, and michael burgess in the outfield), and i’m still very high on him becoming a top notch outfielder to lead my outfield as the dynasty league moves forward….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 18, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

goes back to much of his AA season

After April his OPS was .850, I believe.

Obviously this is another notch up. A month’s worth of additional ABs in a league that has a high level of competition (generally considered better than AA, no?).

It is fun to see. We go through so many flavors of the moment around here that it seems like he’s an old-timer now, but was playing at 19 last year and this year will be playing at 20 in AAA. If this leads into a good start there, I think he’s back to being a top 10 prospect. I’ll be honest that even though he’s just top 40 here, I would certainly make him at least a top 20 guy.

Was it Callis who said he’d take Flores over Martinez? That’s just ridiculous.

by scooter on Nov 18, 2008 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's become fashionable

to bash on Fernando Martinez. Nothing has changed for him, except that he’s getting older. Most scouts still see the same upside, the same raw power and bat speed in batting practice, etc., but suddenly he goes from “one of the best young hitting prospects in the game” to a second rate prospect because he’d be a Sophomore in college by now.

The thing is, he is progressively getting better and starting to put up decent stats. So long as he is avg in AAA this year (or great in AA), I am satisfied with his development path.

by JayWise on Nov 18, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Personally

I never thought he was “one of the best young hitting prospects in the game.” Nor do I think he’s a “second rate prospect” now.

He’s decent OF prospect. If he sticks in CF he could be kind of special. If he goes to a corner… ho hum. Pretty good prospect. Top 50ish. Nothing to really get excited about to me. He has a long way to go to develop the power and patience that would make him a good corner OFer in MLB…. he’s got a long way to go to even make me think that scenario is likely. Tools wise, I love him… but he’s hit his prospect ceiling for me until he puts together a full season of impressive stats. He hasnt done anything wrong but ARL andd tools minus actually impressive production only takes you so far for me.

by alskor on Nov 18, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

I never said that I thought he was ever one of the best young hitting prospects out there. But a lot of people talked about him that way. And some still say he has the ceiling of someone like carlos lee, but they knock him a lot.

by JayWise on Nov 18, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CF?

From what I have read, there is about as much likelihood of him sticking in CF as I have of landing a date with Jessica Alba for my office Christmas party next month.

Honestly, part of the problem with F Mart is the fact that the Mets rushed him so darn much. I really think he’ll start in AA once again, which will be his third crack at that level. I just hope the Mets did not ruin him by pushing him as high as they reasonably could.

All F Mart has really had going for him up to this point is tools and ARL. I am definitely with your second to last comment – that he really needs to show me some good power production over a full season before I can really justfiy ranking him much higher than #50.

by guru4u on Nov 19, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think F-Mart likely does wind up in a corner spot, but my impression is that has more to do with Carlos Beltran’s superior abilities than any huge deficiency on the part of F-Mart. He’s a good athlete with decent speed. Sure, his route runnning isn’t perfect, but what 19 year old’s is? If he was in a different organization, say the Cubs or Astros, I bet he’d be given a much better chance of sticking in a corner. But with the Mets, scouts who grade him just assume he’ll be moved because even if he’s adequate in CF, he still can’t touch Beltran.

by Meddler on Nov 19, 2008 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All he has is tools and ARL?

In AA this year at age 20, Travis Snider had an .820 OPS and made it to the top 10 of the prospect list despite nobody thinking he’d be a CF. When he was 20, Adam Jones had an .823 OPS in AA. Fernando Martinez had a .767 OPS in AA at age 19. Is it out of the realm of possibilities that if he replayed AA next year, his OPS would match theirs? If you don’t think so, note that last year, when Martinez played in AA at age 18, his OPS was .713, meaning this year represents a 54 point rise, mainly from an increased ISOP. He still strikes me as an awfully good prospect, with a very good chance of being an above average corner OF, and possibly a star

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by OldProspects on Nov 20, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course its possible

but he has to actually do it at some point – that’s the entire issue.

Seems like you just argued “ARL” and “tools.”

by alskor on Nov 20, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no

No, he argued his level of production, too. Remember: .850 OPS from May 1st on in AA. 1.000 OPS in DWL.

The reference to Travis Snider is well taken.

by scooter on Nov 20, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So a .767 OPS from a corner OFer in AA

that’s impressive?

Or is impressive because he’s 19? The argument is ARL. The argument he would improve significantly if he repeated the level is ARL + Tools.

I concede its a good bet that would happen – but its far from certain. Until he actually does rake like a stud corner OFer at some point the argument for him remains ARL and tools. That only gets you so far with me. Some guys never do and still turn out great… but some guys always hit a .750 OPS when theyre young for their level and then, when they finally reach the majors… shockingly, we find out they are actually a .750 OPS hitter. Now, I dont think that’s the case with FMart, but I have to admit its a possibility given the data in front of us. I cant consider a guy a top tier prospect until he actually does put up a full season of great numbers, regardless of ARL. I still have FMart top 50 as I said but Im concerned he is overrated a bit.

A performance argument based on winter ball is far from convincing for many reasons.

by alskor on Nov 20, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Winter League

I know winter league stats are pretty meaningless, but it still is nice to see Fernando actually show he knows how to hit. He’s proving that he has a good chance of putting up a fantastic season in AAA next year if he can just stay healthy.

There’s someone on a message board that I post on who is Dominican and he has been watching Fernando’s games live, and he says he looks GREAT at the plate. Very comfortable, nice swing. That’s very encouraging.

by supermets on Nov 18, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fernando has always “looked great” at the plate. We’ve just, honestly, be waiting for him to a) stay healthy and b) start showing that power potential.

Hopefully his age 20 year is when he does it.

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 18, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think if he can stay healthy for the whole year next year he will show that power and he could become a top 10 prospect. There’s a real good chance that he comes up before September next year if Church/Murphy gets injured or under performs.

by supermets on Nov 18, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fernando has a load of power

The HR I seen him hit was a shot

by Bravesin07 on Nov 18, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well yeah

we all know he has the ability to launch a ball from time to time, thats a product of his sweet stroke

but its the ability to hit with power consistently that i want to see more of…i personally feel that for a guy thats only about 6’, that crouch that he does at the plate is counterproductive in terms of power…now hes still only 19 and hes getting bigger and bigger every year so i expect it won’t be much of an issue when he completely fills out but i don’t see him hitting 25+hrs for a few years into his major league career

by robcast23 on Nov 19, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs