Fantasy Help: Minor Leaguers

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 3:09 AM EST Comment 12 comments

I get to keep 17 minor leaguers each year in a 10 team, 5x5 (w/ OBP instead of average), real life contract, head to head, AL Only league.

I have nine draft picks in our upcoming draft - I need not use them all, though. So, the issue is who is worth keeping and who is worth dropping to draft a guy to replace him with. All the players from this year's MLB entry draft are available as well as a spattering of prospects who stepped forward from last year (including Derek Holland, Michael Saunders, etc...).

I realize this is difficult without knowing who is available to be drafted where, but I am certain to use at least my first seven picks. After that will be a value decision based on who is left on my draft board... but Im not worried about the last two picks right now. I just want a general sense of whether people think Im considering the right guys to drop.

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So, at least seven picks to make, and there are 15 minor leaguers I own now. So minimum, I would need to drop 5 guys from the list below. I would also like to have in mind two more guys ready to drop if a guy I have left is there. These are my current minor leaguers( the last number is age for the 2009 season):

MY TEAM

1B BOS Lars Anderson 21
SP TEX Michael Main 19
SP KC Dan Cortes 21
SP OAK James Simmons 21
SP KC Daniel Duffy 19
1B/3B OAK Chris Carter 21
SP OAK Fautino De Los Santos 22
SP MIN Tyler Robertson 20
SP TEX Omar Poveda 20
2B/SS CLE Josh Rodriguez 23
SP SEA Gaby Hernandez 22
SP BAL Chorye Spoone 22
SP TB Glenn Gibson 20
RP DET Virgil Vasquez 25
RP TEX Beau Jones 21

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So, this is where Im leaning right now:

DEFINITE DROPS:

SP SEA Gaby Hernandez 22
SP BAL Chorye Spoone 22
SP TB Glenn Gibson 20
RP DET Virgil Vasquez 25
RP TEX Beau Jones 21

I like Hernandez... but what is the upside here? Spoone is apparently badly hurt - SLAP tear of his labrum. Gibson had a train wreck of a season. Vasquez just got claimed by the Red Sox but is OLD and likely would only be used in middle relief, if at all. I like Jones, but he's been converted to releif, and from a strategy standpoint I dont feel like I have enough spots in my minor leagues to hold on to relief prospects who are multiples years away from fantasy usefulness.

POSSIBLE DROPS:

SP MIN Tyler Robertson 20
SP OAK Fautino De Los Santos 22
SP TEX Omar Poveda 20
2B/SS CLE Josh Rodriguez 23

I LOVE Robertson... but Im very concerned about his health and the lack of info Im finding about him. I also LOVE De Los Santos... I drafted him well before most people knew his name (June of 2006). I was just struck by his otherworldly stats. I know I shouldnt let it cloud my decision, but it was so exciting to see him explode on the prospect scene. To me, FDLS is too good to give up on.

Poveda was a guy I really liked and grabbed late last year, but he's not any sort of standout and the Rangers are sooooo loaded with pitching prospects. JRod... I like the guy, but he underwhelmed me, is getting kind of old and I just expected more from him. JRod and Poveda are the likely drops here... but I dont have a problem passing on the last rounders if they arent significantly better than Poveda and JRod...

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So does anyone have a good reason I should do something different? Do people agree with my assessment of the players above? Anyone have any info that would help me make a decision? Lastly, what do you guys think of my minor league system?

Thanks in advance and all criticism and advice is appreciated. I spend a great deal of time agonizing over these spots and its nice to get some outside opinions...

I also am pursuing the idea of trading picks away

via farm2.static.flickr.com

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My current team

Salary Cap of ~145M for next season.

C LAA Mike Napoli (2.5)
1B BOS Kevin Youkilis (Whatever his arb award is)
2B BOS Dustin Pedroia (near min/0.35)
3B
SS CLE Asdrubal Cabrera (near min/0.35)
OF DET Curtis Granderson (6.5)
OF BOS Jacoby Ellsbury (near min/0.35)
OF MIN Delmon Young (~1.5)
UTIL BOS David Ortiz (13)

BN TB Akinori Iwamura (6.5)
BN CLE Franklin Gutierrez (option to keep @ 1)
BN MIN Brendan Harris (option to keep @ 0.43)
BN OAK Kurt Suzuki (near min/0.35)
BN KC John Buck (0.5)
BN OAK Jack Hannahan (option to keep @ 2)

SP BOS Josh Beckett (17)
SP LAA Jon Lackey (9)
SP TEX Kevin Millwood (10.5)
SP CHW Gavin Floyd (5.5)
SP DET Jeremy Bonderman (9.5)
SP OAK Dana Eveland (option to keep @ ~0.38)

SP KC Luke Hochevar (near min/0.35)
SP CLE Aaron Laffey (near min/0.35)
SP BAL Garrett Olson (near min/0.35)

RP TB Dan Wheeler (option to keep @ 3.35)

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 3:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree with keeps

I could make an argument for DLS but I think he will be returning to a still crowded A’s farm system and they may just move him to RP.

Side note for a 10 team league your Pitching seems really weak!!!! Do you eat salary for cutting a guy like Millwood?

by novaoakland on Nov 17, 2008 3:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Contracts are half guaranteed

So if I wanted to drop Millwood Id eat 5.25 per year for the remainder of his deal (which is always the real life length of contract, so 2009 & 2010). Im not in love with Millwood, but at that rate it was more cost efficient to keep him… every single starting pitcher in the AL is owned in this league. Starting pitching is the scarcest of resources… its an AL-Only league. The categories are W, Ks, WHIP, ERA and saves, and with a head to head setup it makes sense to roster as many SPs as possible… if you fall behind in the rates you can go for bulk on Ks and W’s.

Its actually tremendous fun. Everyone has value except for middle relievers(who have marginal value) and there’s not a whole lot on waivers at any point. The biggest complaint I used to have about fantasy baseball was that players didnt have value because you could always pick up an OFer who can hit 25 HRs. When we finally tried these rules (AL Only and H2H) we all loved it. I highly, highly, highly recommend it. Whole different game where everyone in the league has value. Everyone is nuts about waivers and the end of their roster. We then created complex dynasty/contract rules… that keep us talking trade 365 days a year. In fact, my minor league draft isnt until March… Im just doing prep work now!

Also, to be fair, that same pitching staff plus Javier Vazquez was dominant in 07… just injuries and underperformers killed me om 08. You never know… I was coming off back to back titles, too…

I traded Vazquez (who was signed for 12M) at the trade deadline this season for Chris Carter, a 1st round pick and Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez was traded to the NL obviously, and the Street owner gets Holliday, so I get a 1st round comp. pick. The guy I traded Vazquez too ended up missing the playoffs as well so I have 2 top 4 picks(we have a draft lottery to discourage tanking), a comp pick following the first round, and then depending on the lottery a pick in the 12-16 range(there should be two comp picks after the first round). So that amounts to four picks in the first 16. Im pretty excited… but I damn well wish I had had a top four pick last year (Price, Porcello, Wieters, Moustakas). I have no idea who to take with my 1-4 picks yet… or who the top pick will be. Im looking at Inoa, maybe Holland… I guess… Smoak… I dont know… no one is striking me yet. I love Westmoreland and might target him, Saunders, Casey Kelly with my 2nd rounder/comp… but that’s super early. I make a spreadsheet with this site’s top 20’s and then cross reference them with BP’s top 11’s and other sources… then i start making a top 60 draftable player list…

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 4:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would definitely consider dropping Millwood this year

but I have a lot of young cheap guys anyway and no major needs… and frankly, Millwood would go for 6-8 M in the auction anyway, given the paucity of pitching every year. I could swallow a couple million to make him more palatable and trade him, too… but Im reluctant to give up on Millwood. He’s actually a decent rate guy for me… in an around league average with decent K totals sort of way… when he’s healthy.

I also have had a couple recent offers for people looking to buy low on Bonderman. Now, 9.5M… THAT I could use… but Im scared to give up on Bonderman. I have so many positions filled cheaply (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Granderson, Delmon, Napoli, etc….) that I dont really need the money for the auction. Still, 9.5M is a nice chunk of change. I really just need a 3B, which is usually easy to fill… though last year I traded Joe Nathan for Youkilis (and $3M!) for lack of a better option. So now, Iwamura lost his 3B eligibility. Ortiz was hurt during interleague so he’s a UTIL only to begin the year… and the result is Youk is my only guy who qualifies at 1B and 3B. I made late season waiver claims on Brendan Harris and Jack Hannahan for that very reason… just in case… though I really dont care for either..

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 4:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A bit brainless I some how missed AL only portion.

by novaoakland on Nov 17, 2008 6:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought that was what it was, but I wasnt sure

Its not a super pitching staff in an AL only either… but Beckett-Lackey is a pretty good top. I also think I have plenty of depth/average guys… I just need to add some mid-level types… something similar to what I expected of Vazquez, or like Scott Baker level. That’s a major goal of mine heading into the auction. Though obviously if CC is there or Burnett I want to get in on some high end stuff. Rather really overpay for quality than just overpay for mediocre…

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like your draft strategy

or at least how you make your list. that’s basically what i did in my draft last year and it netted me some high quality later round picks. as far as who to drop, i would be hesitant to drop anymore than the 5 pitchers you already listed. i looked through the first few rounds of the draft and only counted a handful of pitchers who were drafted by AL teams last year, and with pitching at a premium, as you put it, you could put yourself in a tough spot down the line by dumping all your pitchers. there is a good chance you could snag holland or matusz though, so at least you’ve got that going for you

by ajake57 on Nov 17, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your assessment...

I think is pretty right on. I also think the Robertson/FDLS/Poveda group can go either way (I would move JRod down to the group lower and drop him completely). If you can decide until your turn to draft whether or not to drop a player I would do that. I would keep FDLS if I were you. The most important (or at least tied with winning) thing in Fantasy is having fun, and I do that by getting players that I really enjoy rooting for. I think you will enjoy rooting for FDLS so I would recommend holding onto him.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 17, 2008 8:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I can, and that is the plan

Two picks people mocked me for were FDLS – who no one had ever heard of and Danny Duffy – who most had never heard of and thought his name was funny (alcohol was involved shockingly).

I love sending stat update emails on these guys as the minor league season progresses.

JRod is almost certainly a drop as well. The big difference between him and the other Potential Drop guys is age. I just liked him as an up the middle guy with a little speed and a little power…

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why not keep DLS...?

i would keep him….and then take a wait-and-see approach. it sounds like you are cutting a guy simply because he had TJ. this was one of the top arms in all of the minors. what’s the harm in keeping him and waiting to see what he does? that’s exactly the approach i’m taking with him. the other assessments are spot-on.

by psugator on Nov 17, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Im probably not cutting him

I said Im almost certainly going to keep him… I know, my article above is lengthy…

Im likely keeping Robertson and FDLS, but I wanted to gauge people’s reactions. I have nine picks and two open spots(15 out of 17) – so if I drop the five “DROP” guys and two of the four “POTENTIAL DROP” guys I would be all set. In fact, if I can move a draft pick or two I could hold onto Poveda and maybe even more… Im just not sure its worth it, and I didnt want to overstate things… because my original post above is more than long enough already…

We have 5 rounds, I have:
2 1sts
1 Comp pick for losing C Gonzalez following the first round
1 2nd
3 3rds
2 5ths

So its difficult for me to say what will be left when the 5ths roll around… but Im really focused on my top 7 picks anyway.

by alskor on Nov 17, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs