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Community Prospect List: #48

After 276 votes Gordon Beckham has been declared the winner with 17% of the vote.  Chris Carter came in second place with 14%.  Angel Salome and Michael Burgess will be removed from the poll as they received less than the 5% minimum. I have added two spots to the poll to speed up the amount of candidates.  Jordan Zimmermann, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Blanks will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.


1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA -  1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago)

44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinatti)

45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)

46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)

47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago)

 

CANDIDATES -  Brett Cecil, Carlos Triunfel, Chris Carter, Jake Arrieta, Austin Jackson, Michael Bowden, Wilmer Flores, Alcides Escobar, Michel Inoa, Jordan Zimmermann, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Blanks

TESTERS - Ben Revere, Phillippe Aumont, Jose Tabata,  Reid Brignac, Martin Perez, Michael Main, Desmond Jennings, Beau Mills, Andrew Lambo, JP Arencibia, Greg Halman, Carlos Carrasco, Jeff Samardzija, Michael Saunders, Chris Perez, Michael Burgess, Angel Salome, Jordan Walden, Tyler Flowers

Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them

Poll
Who is Community Prospect #48?
Brett Cecil
50 votes
Carlos Triunfel
36 votes
Jake Arrieta
29 votes
Chris Carter
55 votes
Austin Jackson
29 votes
Michael Bowden
29 votes
Wilmer Flores
19 votes
Alcides Escobar
38 votes
Michel Inoa
11 votes
Jordan Zimmermann
23 votes
Kyle Blanks
2 votes
Matt Dominguez
18 votes

339 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 98 comments

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Comments

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Vote for hire

I am leaning toward Action Jackson but haven’t made a final decision. Anyone want to try to sway me?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Escobar

it’s time for him. It’s time I say!!!

by mjwelch11 on Nov 13, 2008 11:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Triunfel

I think he’ll stick at 2B, I like the progress he’s made, and I love his upside.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

why is his upside higher than jason donald's?

i don’t see it. at all. i know he’s younger, but he’s shown no ability to hit the ball with authority, and if he’s as unathletic as his scouting reports claim, his bat hasn’t been near good enough to carry him at another position.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 13, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Age plays a big part in both

Donald never showed real in-game power until he was a 22-year old in the FSL. I worry more that he’s going to end up a third baseman with a second baseman’s glove. Granted, a lot of people said that about Utley, and Triunfel’s extremely high risk, so I’m prepared to be wrong some day, and I don’t think Donald should be too far down our list. But right now, I think Donald’s much more likely to be a major leaguer, while Triunfel’s much more likely to be a true star, and I skew to the latter in my voting.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

there are usually two ways to be a star

either you are a tremendously gifted hitter or you work your balls off to get better. triunfel is definitely not the latter, and since he slugged .400 in high desert, he’s probably not the former, either.

i keep bringing up donald for a reason; his ceiling really is sky high. he’s got a legitimate chance to have a .900 OPS out of the SS position. plus he’s set to make his major league debut just next season, likely in april.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 13, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

.900 OPS?!?!?!?

That is a ludacris statement. You think Jason Donald has a legit chance to be the SS in baseball? Only Hanley had an OPS over .900 as a SS. Josh Hamilton was at .901, Miggy Cabrera had .887. Ryan Howard had .881. You think there is a chance Donald is better offensively than those 3 guys? Not to mention Braun, Guerrero and all but 16 Major LEaguers this season. If that’s the case he should be up there with Price and Weiters. I hope that was a typo since he had an .888 OPS in AA, otherwise, you are a ridiculous homer or an idiot

by VanillaGorilla on Nov 13, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I didnt mean to be that much of a dick

I apologize, but it is still crazy to say he has a legit chance at a .900 OPS

by VanillaGorilla on Nov 13, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's been hashed out

i’m a huge believer in donald’s bat, and i think he could easily mark derosa himself into a .900 OPS season.

realistically, that’s a best case scenario, but i think his bat is already better than league average, and i think he’s the kind of guy who gets better as the competition gets more stiff.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 13, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mark DeRosa?

Great comp. A guy who’s not a SS and has never had a 900 OPS.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's a terrific hitter

Presumably variablesdont meant that in his best year, Donald might get a .900 OPS, but in more normal years, he would have an OPS from .825-.875 or so. That seems reasonable to me – he has solid power, and walks an above average amount of times. The two major concerns with his hitting is his high BABIP that might not continue in the major leagues, and that he’s never had 500 ABs. Other than that, he’s probably the best hitting SS prospect in the game, and will be a solid player once he gets a chance

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 13, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um

You think Donald will beat Rollins for the job by April?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 13, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think donald is a finished product

he’s not gonna get much better by playing in the minors at this point, so i think he’ll get a major league paycheck, maybe in LF, maybe at 3B, maybe in a tomas perez like supersub role.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Nov 13, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OPS

Even at an .825 OPS that would be the third best for a SS only 5 guys had an OPS over .800 last year. granted a few guys had down years. But I think an OPS even approaching .850 is a reach. A SS with a good glove and a .800 OPS is elite

by VanillaGorilla on Nov 13, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

Main should start getting some serious consideration about mid 50s probably not making it on until 60ish and Perez should probably be mid 60s toward 70

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 13, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perez is as unlikely as Inoa to ever make the majors

Does not even remotely belong on a top 100 prospects list.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 13, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perez has done well in short season A ball

that doesn’t mean he will make the majors, but he’s not coming entirely from left field. I agree he shouldn’t be considered now, but I think he might deserve some discussion as early as the 60s

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 13, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perez vs Inoa

Perez pitched pretty damn well considering he was a 17 year old playing in the Northwest league. And reading some of the reports on him from Ranger people he has all the potential to be better than Feliz, Holland, or Main. Inoa hasn’t even thrown a professional pitch. So while they both have significant hurdles to overcome to make it in the bigs Perez is further along than Inoa is as of now.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 13, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

but Perez isn’t “the acknowledged best IFA pitching prospect since Felix Hernandez,” either.

Keep in mind, I’m not arguing for Inoa to be on the list, I’m arguing for both of them to be off of it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 13, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

revere

we need him back on the poll.

by jpahk on Nov 13, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Love Revere

Personally I think he is very underrated by the community. There seems to be a misconception that he is merely a slap hitter. People need to realize that prospect experts love the way that he hits the ball HARD all over the field. Combining his excellent bat control, with his great speed, and I think we may have the next great leadoff hitter. Also, Kenny Lofton and even Ichiro comps don’t hurt.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lofton and Ichiro hit home runs occasionally

It’s nearly impossible to be a valuable player with ZERO power.

by dkdc on Nov 13, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1 on Revere

And with a player as young as Revere, he may still develop adequate power for a leadoff man. Besides which, there’s something to be said for a player with a slugging derived from an inordinately high number of doubles and triples, even if they are largely of the “legged out” variety.

by GuyinNY on Nov 13, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

He probably would have gotten my vote here.

by journeymen on Nov 13, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So I find myself

debating on 4 pitchers on this list not named Inoa. All 4 are within 6 months of each other age wise, and all but Arrieta has pitched in AA some this year(all in the same league too). If I had to rank them based on their numbers, I’d probably go Cecil, Bowden, Zimmerman, and then Arrieta….but all the talk early on about Cecil profiling as a reliever long term has me trying to figure out how much to weigh that against performance. Is that still the prevailing thought on Cecil? Or has he developed/improved a third offering to a point where he seems destined for the rotation? Because while it’s not necessarily flashy, Bowden seems to me like a guy who will be big league starter for a long time, kind of a Scott Baker/Kevin Slowey type more than an true ace type, but that’s still damn valuable. As much as I like Bowden though, if a lefty with such good groundball tendencies like Cecil would be an easy choice over him I think, provided he’s going to be a starter.

Anyone have the info I’m looking for on Cecil? It would sure be appreciated and make my decision all the easier.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 12:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gatling

Where would you put Walden in this group?

by siddfynch on Nov 13, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally forgot about Walden

I’d love to see Walden get a tester.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Nov 13, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good call!

Walden probably should have been on here a while ago.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Done

Walden has been added as a tester. I will try to get him on a poll soon as he is overdue.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Walden

Yeah, I felt like I’d been a squeaky wheel about enough testers to not raise Walden, too. But I was surprised to see he and Latos were both left off the RedSoxFaithful top 100…..In my mind, I keep clumping these two guys together, starting last year and not really seeing meaningful separation this year.

I do like Walden’s combo of velocity and GB rate, though. That alone makes me think of AJ Burnett.

by siddfynch on Nov 13, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Siddfynch

If you have any testers please don’t hesitate to post them. I may not add them all but sometimes I simply forget or am not familiar with a player.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a really good question sidd

He probably has more upside than Bowden and maybe Zimmermann, but the walks in his SSS in A+ worry me a bit. He’s got good groundball numbers, which is very important in evaluating pitchers in my book, but I need to see less than 3BB/9 from him in A+/AA to put him ahead of Cecil and Bowden for sure, and probably Zimmermann too. I’d slot him Walden 4th, ahead of only Arrieta for certain. Now, by next year that could really change, and if Cecil ends up a RP, then it changes even more. Upside wise, I’d probably go Cecil first, then Arrieta/Walden as pretty interchangeable, followed by Zimmermann and then Bowden. I’m a pretty conservative guy when it comes to pitchers though, so I could totally buy someone ordering them differently.

As for Latos, who you mention further down here, I really need to see some actual innings from him to put him in the top 60 or so, but I do think he’s got lots of potential and could really rocket up the list in the next year or two.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cecil as a reliever

I am interested in where you heard this from. Cecil was originally drafted as a started by the Jays and really only a year later I do not think he has done anything to diminish that. I understand there might be scouting reports that question his repetoire of pitches, just never read it anywhere before.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 13, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

RP

“A better value than either of the Jays’ first two picks. Cecil has a very good slider that should make him a major asset out of the pen if he’s not capable of lasting as a starting pitcher. Ideally, he’d turn out to be a third or fourth starter.”-Rotoworld

This is just one quick one I found, but I’m positive it was a big thing at draft time that because Cecil is basically a FB/SL guy the concern was he may not develop a third pitch, so he’d end up a reliever, but a pretty good one at that I think.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Low ceiling pick

Thanks for the response on the scouting report. It seems to be another instance of Riccardi picking a low ceiling/high certainty college player. The thing is, with good control and 2 very good pitches, Cecil almost has everything he needs to become a solid future starter. If he has/develops an average 3rd ptich, he could reach his ceiling. Out of all the pitchers on this list, Cecil is 2nd/3rd most likely to become a 3rd/4th starter behind Price, Cahill, or maybe Porcello.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 13, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

having a lot of trouble

figuring out how gordon beckham can be ranked higher than brett cecil and chris carter. that really makes no sense to me…..

by psugator on Nov 13, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

a good amount of early 08 picks

are getting chosen, maybe by default beckham is next

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 13, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

point being...

carter had a high BA and had a lot of power and dominated his league….cecil dominated AA….beckham played at UGA and has yet to do anything professionally..just don’t know how he can be ranked higher than those two….

by psugator on Nov 13, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

carter had a high BA?

His BA in stockton was not that high.

by wobatus on Nov 13, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

.259 AVG in a hitter's park.....

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My 2 cents

Carter = Russel Branyan without the defense. Or Jonny Gomes.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I’m sure I’m the only one, but I actually like Boston’s Chris Carter better than Oakland’s Chris Carter. At least Boston’s CC can play some semblance of defense and put up good numbers in AAA.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 13, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow....

I want some of what your smoking. Some of the comments regarding Chris Carter are hilarious. The man has had good numbers since the day he started his proffessional career, and hit 39 HR’s last season. Again, I am so sick of trying to vouch for A’s prospects because their A’s prospects but I have seen Carter play, along with many A’s minor leaguers many times. Carter was unlucky last season and metrics suggest he was more of a .275-.280 hitter. Oh yea, he hit 39 HR’s and had an OPS of .900+. The guy hits bombs, and I saw him get a lot of hard hit line drives taken away by great plays, and by being hit right at a defender. He has a ton of power, and CAL league or not the power is legit.

by JPShark on Nov 13, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I

also want to add that Carter will likely end up a corner OF, and has the arm to play RF. I’ve read more then once that Carter is an adequate RF with time to improve. The only thing people have to say about Carter is that he K’s a lot, and didn’t have a high BA last season. Welcome to the world of minor league sluggers, most have faults including many of the guys that are considered “ahead” of Carter by some on this site.

by JPShark on Nov 13, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You have read Carter is an adequate RF?

Can you please send me the link. Here is what I have heard about Carter’s fielding:

Carter got in 41 games at third base this year, fielding .837 with a 1.88 range factor, obviously unacceptable. At first base he posted a .974 fielding percentage and made 10 errors in 40 games. In the outfield he got into 14 games in right field, with a .909 fielding percentage and a 0.71 range factor. If this doesn’t spell born DH I don’t know what does."

How is a .909 fielding percentage adequate, let alone for an OF? This guy is a born DH and is brutal with the glove. Hopefully his walks and homeruns will balance his strikeouts and make him an average regular DH.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The quote on his fielding is from Mr. John Sickels.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You do realize that that ".909 fielding percentage" in right field

basically means “in those 14 games, he committed an error,” right?

Citing that stat as though it means something is one of the most ridiculous abuses of statistics I’ve ever seen. It’s a. a small sample, b. of a stat that’s worthless to begin with, c. that’s a judgment call being judged by single-A scorekeepers.

It may well be that Carter is an unacceptable right fielder. The above has utterly no relevance to whether he will be so or not.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 13, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

John stating "If this doesn't spell born DH I don't know what does" isn't relevant to his fielding ability?

I thought Mr. Sickels made his opinion on Carter’s fielding ability fairly clear. Also, the 0.71 range factor hasn’t clued you into the fact that he is not considered an “adequate RF”?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't

have the links handy but one article I remember reading was by Melissa Lockard who interviewed A’s MiLB personnel, as well as other scouts. They said he has the speed, and arm to play in right field and that is probably his best defensive position for him. Obviously there are questions about his glove, but that hasn’t stopped other guys from getting on the list ahead of Carter has it?? The offensive numbers are there, and the defense is a work in progress. No offense to Mr. Sickels as I love his work, but guys who around to see Carter more frequently have a better idea of how he projects both at the plate, and in the field. I’m telling you right now that those are the people I have heard say he can play in RF, and better then some would think. The A’s are just trying to see if he can find a home in the infield, as they are pretty deep in OF prospects. If he would have played more in RF I am willing to bet his numbers would have been much better. Unfortunately he was yanked all over the place in an attempt to see where he fits best. The bottom line is it seems you have a slight prejudice against A’s fans, as well as their prospects. If you go back and take a look at the way things have gone, and what has been said since this started I think you will see what i’m talking about.

by JPShark on Nov 13, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The "14 games" hasn't clued you in to the fact

that this “stat” has no value?

Fuck, dude, stop citing small sample sizes. Every time you do it, the world becomes a slightly stupider place.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 13, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you calling Sickels stupid?

Because he is the one that used those numbers for part of his argument. Also, would it kill you to stop insulting people.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It might

but that’s a risk I’m willing to take.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also

Instead of just disagreeing with Sickels and myself that Carter cannot play an adequate rightfield, why don’t you find an expert/scout on minor leaguers who (not employed by the A’s) that supports your belief.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I do not know or, for these purposes, care whether Carter can play an adequate right field.

My “position,” supported by, eh, anyone who knows anything about statistics and baseball, is that citing a stat which is known to be without any value is intellectually dishonest and irritating.

John was wrong to cite it initially. You’re really wrong to keep harping on it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 14, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t fielding percentage the amount of successful plays over chances? A .909 means that he converted without error a little more than 90% of plays. Over 14 games, there seems to be a pretty decent chance that he had at least 20 if not 30 plays to make, meaning that he had 2 or 3 errors. You’re right that it’s a very small sample size, but that’s still kind of troubling, particularly when one considers that as KBR says, nobody seems to think that he is a good OF

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 14, 2008 8:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

0.71 RF * 14 games =10 plays

10 plays, 1 error = .909 fielding percentage

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 14, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

In my opinion his upside is similar to Rob Deer without Rob Deer’s strong arm from right. If you look at their walk and strikeout rates you will see the similarities. People will try to compare Carter to Dunn/Howard but they fail to notice that Howard was a .299 career hitter in the minors and Dunn hit .304. Carter’s career minor league average is .275 and decreasing. Being compared to Rob Deer is not an insult as he was a useful player. People need to look at Carter’s most likely upside comparison instead of their perfect world dream scenario.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

brett cecil

vs.

poreda
simmons
mazzaro
todd

can anyone breakdown how he’s rated much higher than some of those other guys?

by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 13, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Quick answer

Superior K-rate, FIP, and groundball %. While I’d love to see Mazzaro actually be a good big league pitcher, regardless of what he did this year I can’t buy him in the same class as these other guys. He was alright in 2006, not very good in 2007, and pretty good this year. But he still had a K/9 under 7 and I’m not sure he’s going to be more than a #4/5 type guy.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Additional thought

I think Poreda’s the only guy on that list who can match Cecil’s upside, and Poreda (though I like him very much) hasn’t performed nearly as well as Cecil.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Other

Salome!

Dude will stick at C, put up big offensive numbers.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Nov 13, 2008 1:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Brett Cecil vs. Chris Carter

This shouldn’t be much of a debate considering you can find good hitting 1B easily, but its much harder to find a good pitcher.

by Take3 on Nov 13, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I know

you’re a troll..

by slurve on Nov 13, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

does he play first?

we need to get Flowers, Carter, and Yonder Alonso’s 10 year old brother Hither on the list first.

by wobatus on Nov 13, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha

Hither and Yonder…..well played sir.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would think Hither's brother would be Thither

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 13, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

I believe it was a play on the phrase “hither and yon”…at least that’s how I interpreted it.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 13, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love Jackson but there is no need to be a dick

Jackson will likely be a very good centrefielder which is nothing to scoff at. Sure he may never hit 30 HR in a season but if he can hit .280 with 15-20 HR and 15-20 steals he will be very valuable at his position.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Jackson should be an average to above average CFer. He is more sure to be that, than some of these guys like Flores, M. Perez or Inoa.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 13, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't lump Flores in with Inoa

I have plenty of faith that Inoa’s a wonderful prospect and all, but until he plays pro ball in the States, we might as well put Toe Nash in our top 50.

by aap212 on Nov 13, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Get Inoa off the poll

Is that a joke? There is no rationale for him to be on there. Where is Flowers? Dude has 30+ homer power and walks like a champ for a catcher an all indications are his future is at catcher.

by bravitos5122 on Nov 13, 2008 3:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why did you vote for Inoa then?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Flowers

He hit 17 homeruns as a 22 year old in A+ and now he has 30 homerun power? That is really interesting.

You say that ‘all indications are his future is at catcher’? Here is a qoute from Mr. John Sickels recently: “Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Love the power and walks, main question is glove.”

Flowers is a decent prospect but lets not go overboard.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

27 homers in 475 at bats

If you count the fall league. Which maybe we shouldn’t unles he gets traded to the Rockies. :)

But 10 homers in 60 some at bats in Arizona, i know it is a hitters paradise, but da-yum.

Speaking of, maybe Hanson is even better than I thought. Another 9k, 5 inning style outing the other day. 22 innings, 39 Ks. Kid has been lights out in Az.

BTW, king Billy, good to hear you’re health is coming back to allow you to work. I didn’t know.

by wobatus on Nov 13, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't count any Fall/Winter leagues

The stats don’t mean anything as it is such a small sample size. However 10 homers in 60 at bats is very impressive. I am not a Flowers fan but I added him the testers list as I am intrigued to see how he will perform in the polling. Also, thanks for your concerns and I can assure you the girlfriend is glad I am getting back to work too. ;)

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Should count for something

Maybe the top guys are only getting 100 AB there, but it’s also a league full of top near ready prospects. Which means there is a more consistent level of talent, and it is probably easier to measure these guys against each other there than there is in comparing minor league numbers across different leagues and environments.

Consider there are lots of people arguing stats even in low A and rookie ball, I think you have to give some weight to summer leagues. Take a look at the top 15 hitters in Arizona in 2005, for example, and you’ll see Steven Drew, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Dan Uggla, Lastings Milledge, and Ryan Garko.

I wouldn’t weigh any 100 AB too heavily, and I’d consider scouting and previous performance. But the top guys there, especially if they aren’t older than the competition, are often interesting.

by acerimusdux on Nov 13, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Chip Cannon

He hit 11 HRs in 2006, almost twice as many as the next player, Ryan Braun at 6. I am not trying to say that Arizona Fall League stats are useless though, it is just much more reliable to evaluate pitchers with them then hitters due to the environment(also considering small sample size issues).

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 13, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

the stats mainly for new draftees like Alonso, Wallace or Beckham or even younger guys like Morrison or Triunfel should be weighed a little more seeing as how they are facing mostly guys from more advanced competition both relative to their age and league (Wallace actually might be an exception to that seeing as how far he advanced in the minors this year. Nevertheless, the way he is hitting in the AFL shows how advanced a hitter he is, imo)

by RoyalsFan4Life on Nov 13, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Chip Canon

lol

He also hit 27 HR in AA in 2006. But struck out 158 times. He was also 24 years old, and had 182 games of AA experience, whereas Flowers is 22, and made the jump from A+ ball. And he never really put up a decent OBP for a full minor league season; Flowers had a .427 OBP this year.

I don’t know that Flowers belongs up there on the list yet, but he’s not an outlandish choice. I think it depends on whether he’s going to be decent behind the dish. If his defense isn’t good enough, he maybe ends up another 1B/DH type. Considering there are only 14 teams which actually use the DH, I’m thinking MLB will need to do an expansion round just so that all of our top 50 prospects will have a place to play.

But of the current guys at the top of the AFL, I’d say…..

Future MLB hitters:
Logan Morrison, Tyler Flowers, Jason Donald, Gordon Beckham, Dan Murphy, Eric Young

Eh, Maybe, but doubtful:
Drew Sutton, Wes Hodges, Casper Wells, Michael McKenry, Chris Pettit, Rhyne Hughes

Small Sample Wonders:
Mike Baxter, Cole Armstrong, Juan Miranda, Matt Young, Leonard Davis

by acerimusdux on Nov 13, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Request

Could you slow down the polls to one a day so that everyone has a chance to vote and there is plenty of time to stimulate discussion. As the polls have moved to lower rankings, I think there has been less incentive to write up a rational for who you voted for considering you probably just made that same argument less than 12 hours ago but was skipped over due to a new poll being released. The point of the list was to create discussion, if I remember correctly, so slowing it down slightly would only help this aim.

Keep up the good work though, this is refreshing to see after the sock puppet wars.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 13, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maintaining the current pace

The reason I have been able to commit so much time to the Community List is because I been on sick leave for much of the past year. Fortunately I should be able to return to work within a month. As a result, when I return to work I will not have nearly as much time to spend on the polls and therefore I will be maintaining the current pace of the polls. I understand your concern and if discussion really breaks down I will reconsider.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for considering it anyways

The polls have created some good debates so far and you have done a great helping maintain this atmosphere despite certain issues that have come up.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 13, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the pace

Hey I don’t need to vote in every poll, either. And one or two spots on the list don’t make much difference. As long as you are getting near to 300 votes in each poll, might as well keep it moving.

by acerimusdux on Nov 13, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

At #20 on the list

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NEW RUNOFF POLL BEING POSTED IN A FEW MINUTES: CARTER VS CECIL

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 13, 2008 6:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Voted for Triunfel

Combo of age, level, talent, and with a pretty darned good second half seals it for me.

And Inoa has no business being on this board. Sure he’s got tons of promise but he’s got much much farther to go than any of these other players. He’s only on there because of his name being popularly known.

by Scrupio on Nov 13, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Arrieta and Escobar

Those are players that should be on the list now.

by Orioles77 on Nov 13, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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