Discussion Question

actually, I’m vacillating on both of these, both went with what was closest to my actual sentiments.

Hughes is young. Really, really young. He didn’t have enough time in the minors because of the likes of Pavano going down, and then he suffered his own rash of injuries. Further unneeded pressure was placed on him because the Twins asked about him in the Johan Santana trade talks. I think he’ll turn into Mike Mussina.

I said true on Kennedy if only because I don’t think he’ll be “very good”. Everyone overrated him because of two good starts in the majors in 2006, and underrates him now because he struggled last year. I think both of Hughes and Kennedy were a little too perfect last season, and afraid to pound the strike zone. Kennedy isn’t far away from being a respectable innings eater, but I don’t think he’ll be more than that.

The short answer is Hughes yes and Kennedy no.

Hughes still has very good stuff. I dont know if I think he will be a #1 someday. But I do believe in 2 seasons he will be the 2nd best starter on the Yanks. After Joba, if he is still a starter.

Kennedy is an interesting case. He had great numbers in the minors. I just dont see how he can succeed in the majors. He has no plus pitches. And his alleged plus command just didnt play in 2008. I feel very strongly that he will be a flop and the Yanks should have flipped him whent hey had the chance. I am more confident in Kennedy flopping than I am in Hughes becoming a top tier SP.

hughes has profiled as a #1 starter since being drafted and i think he will meet these expectations…at the very least he will be an excelent #2……..his last 2 starts of the year he went a combined 12ip 9h 3er 2bb 10k and i have heard he is really coming along nicely in the AFL…hes still very young (he will turn 23 mid season)…..his velocity is back up and his curve has regained the life that was advertised from what ive heard in the AFL…his command is still a little rough right now but is coming along……i think hughes will develop above average command backed up by his excelent k/bb ratio in the minors…overall i look for hughes to have a good year next year (with some rough spots) with a real breakout year in 2010 when he still will be only 25…….

1) In regards to Hughes, I believe we’ve seen enough mechanical evidence among other things to show that since the spring training of 07’, Hughes has really not been the same pitcher that had the #1 starter label in the minors. Personally I blame Ron Guidry, who apparently toyed with Hughes’ mechanics that winter/spring. Since then, Hughes, who was hitting 96, and constantly was working around 90-92, was topping at 94 and consistently working at 88-90. The loss in speed, and command wasn’t a result of nerves, it was the fact that Guidry changed Hughes’ follow through, so now, Hughes is putting more stress on his shoulder (using less of his lower body, putting stress on his shoulder to compensate, and he’s also doing some excessive head turning compared to what he once was)—All of this means worse performance (certainly not #1 worthy) unless he can fix it. Considering that he hasn’t shown that he can in the 2 years since then, I consider it unlikely. Yes, I know he’s 22, but there’s no reason to suggest that anything will happen to change what has been done (atleast in the yanks organization).

2) Never really had much faith in Kennedy. To me he’s almost the definition of streaky (just look at his college career). It wouldn’t surprise me if he had one fluke Estaban Loaizaesque 20 win season. It may come in 09’ who knows. But as far as Ian being a consistently respectable pitcher in the big leagues—-no I don’t think that’s the case.

1. injuries will prevent it.

1. he will rebound but will never be very good. i think he will be an effective back of the rotation guy for years to come though.

“if you could read my mind love, what a tale my thoughts could tell.”

Hughes now has a floor of a Paul Wilson and IMO an upside of a Scott Baker, he can be a good #3 but he’ll never be a #1 or #2 starter. Straight fastball, poor change, and poor command of his curveball.

Kennedy is just another junkballer a la Jeremy Sowers, whom I predicted Kennedy to be like before the season.

1. Hughes’ potential is just simply too high. His stuff is great but few pitchers rarely live up to that top prospect potential. Even without injuries the odds are against Hughes reaching his “perceived” potential.

2. I think Kennedy will be at best a #5 on the Yankees’ staff. Is it a good career? I think he’ll end up being traded and not in Pinstripes. He may be better off in a low pressure situation. I don’t see the high upside in Kennedy but he can still be adequate.

I don’t get why people are so down on him. Last year, in what was supposed to be his annus horribulus, he did terrifically in AAA as a 23 year old, and got knocked around in 39.2 IP in the Majors. Not to get too Joe Biden on you, but I repeat, 39.2 Innings. And, even in those 39.2 IP, his peripherals weren’t quite as terrible as his ERA – his FIP over, again, 39.2 innings, was 5.57. Not good by any sense of the imagination, but not absolutely disastrous. The previous year, in 19 major league innings, he did very well. This doesn’t mean that he will be an ace, or even a good major league pitcher, but that the evidence is largely in his favor. Again, this is a 23 year old pitcher who in 226 minor league innings had an ERA below 2, a WHIP below 1, a K/9 above 9, a BB/9 below 3. The only evidence thus far that the guy cannot pitch is that in 39.2 IP in the major league, he did badly.

Please.

if you mean that he’ll never be an ace. He has two good pitches, his fastball and curve, neither of which are overpowering or unhittable, and neither have very good control. His changeup and slider are both rather mediocre, and his health is in question.

Personally, I think his upside is like AJ Burnett if he can add a little more bite to the curve, but the downside is very Paul Wilson.

Kennedy doesn’t have bad stuff, and he has the ability to command his stuff very well when on. However he won’t rebound in 2009, for no team will give him a very significant role. Kennedy’s a good sleeper for 2010, IMO.

if they are with other teams. i think both can have success depending on what how success is defined. i think they can both have long careers if they get out of NY. its not the pressure but the fact that when is the last time NYY developed a starter. the fans don’t seem to have the patience to wait for a kid to go through the growing pains. not everyone that is brought up is going to tear up the league.