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Safe Bet vs. High Risks

Offered a trade

Star-divide

20 Team Dynasty $$ League

(R, HR, SB, RBI, AVG, BB) 
(W, K, SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP)


I've been offered Nick Markakis for my Brandon Morrow, Pedro Alvarez, and either Gavin Floyd/Billy Butler.
Can I possibly make this trade?

C. Jesus Flores
1B. Billy Butler
2B. Alexi Casilla
3B. Troy Glaus
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Raul Ibanez
CF. Coco Crisp
RF. Cody Ross
UT. David Ortiz

BN. Wily Taveras, Felix Pie, Aaron Cunningham, Chris Duncan

SP. Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Gavin Floyd, Brian Bannister, Greg Smith, David Purcey
RP. Jon Rauch, Brandon Morrow, Manny Delcarmen, Jason Motte, Steven Shell

DL. Austin Kearns, Chris Ray, Aaron Hill

MiLB Roster:

C. Buster Posey, Lou Marson
1B. Logan Morrison, Sean Doolittle
3B. Pedro Alvarez
SS. Carlos Triunfel
OF. Michael Burgess, Michael Saunders, Daryl Jones, Mike Stanton
SP. Trevor Cahill, Tim Alderson, Jhoulys Chacin, Brian Matusz, Derek Holland, Cole Rohrbough

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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No

Morrow is the likeliest guy on that team to pick up saves, and that’s hoping that Seattle actually goes into a real rebuild. In 2 years Alvarez will be outproducing Markakis, and that’s not remotely an insult.

I’m also a Butler homer, so yeah.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Nov 12, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Morrow...

is penciled into the Ms rotation in 2009. He’s not a saves candidate. That said, don’t do this deal.

by slamcactus on Nov 13, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

M's

At this time last year, I think he was “penciled” into the starting rotation too. Then, the M’s inexplicably threw metric F tons of money at Carlos Silva, and Morrow went to the pen.

It’s the Mariners, and they have a new organization. I’d wait and see how things are handled up there.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Morrow pretty set in stone to be in Rotation

At this time last year Morrow had done a good(yet wild) job out of the pen. The M’s sent him to winter ball to start a few games where he went about 4-5 innings in each. Then he came back and got injured in spring training and didn’t get healthy until Putz was put on the DL. So he was the closer until Putz got healthy.

This year is much different. Morrow had a number of very good starts at the end of the season including almost no-hitting the Yankees. He was much more stretched out than when he had those few winter league starts and has shown success starting. The M’s have him as a #2 or 3 starter depending on what happens with Bedard.

by Scrupio on Nov 13, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

Although, I think that after winter ball the M’s penciled him into the starting rotation, until the Silva deal, right? And that when he was injured in ST he was in the bullpen mix?

But maybe I have that wrong.

Hey, bottom line, I think there’s a good chance Morrow starts for the M’s in April 09, but with the new leadership up there, I’d personally wait and see before pulling the trigger. It’s unlikely any of the other guys in the proposed transaction change status in any way.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 13, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

Morrow is going to start – and he looks like he could do rather well. Alvarez is a stud and Floyd is no slouch to say the least.

by slurve on Nov 12, 2008 6:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

nope

for reasons stated above

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 12, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Counter-offer

I very much like the idea of getting a solid hitter like Markakis in a 20 team league with only 9 active hitting spots. So I’d make every effort to get him if I could. However your pitching IMO isn’t deep enough to lose both Morrow and Floyd. Smith and Bannister are guys I’d avoid starting unless desperate. You don’t appear to have a replacement for Butler (you can’t count on Morrison for 2009) and I’d try and make a 1B part of the return package. The other area is that Alvarez is your only 3B in the minor roster whereas you’ve got several tradeable OFs & SPs. I’d be tempted to try and replace Alvarez with someone like Stanton, Alderson, etc.

Perhaps a counter of Morrow, Alderson, Stanton would get his attention and add Smith (or Bannister) to get rid of the temptation to use him.

by prhood on Nov 12, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Depends

On whether you think Morrow starts or relieves next year. If you think he’s going to start, I think you’ve got the depth to cover (although it would be helpful to know what kind of IP/GS limit you’re working with). However, your relief corps looks shaky to me, and you need Morrow for that.

As an absolute matter, you’re probably giving up too much to get Nick M., but he is going to be a plus player for you in all 6 offensive categories and you could really use some help in the OF.

Oh, and for God’s sakes, Floyd, not Butler!

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Nov 12, 2008 7:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'll say Yes

Here’s my thinking.
Markakis would be a big upgrade in your OF and gives you a guy you can count on for years to come.
Morrow should start (I doubt the Mariners had him stretched out to put him back in the bullpen) and Putz actually pitched fairly well down the stretch. So it’s no loss to your bullpen, although Morrow did look pretty promising in his handful of starts.
While losing Alveraz hurts, you have Triunfel who should be moved to 3B within the next year or two. I say this because everything I’ve read talks about how he’ll grow out of SS, with 3b being the logical spot. If he develops like so many think he will, he could be just as good, if not better, than alveraz.
With the Butler/Floyd part, I’d say part with Floyd but only because you need someone to play 1b. I think this would definitely hurt your pitching, but starting pitchers are easier to find than potential franchise 1b’s. Although with the way KC has operated, I wouldn’t say Butler is a sure thing there.
I think you’d be paying a high price for Markakis, and maybe you should try to counter for a better deal. But I think this is something you should definitely pursue.

by joltinjoe on Nov 12, 2008 8:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Triunfel...

is more of a prototypical 2B than a 3B. He can probably make the transition to either position fairly easily, but I wouldn’t bet real value on him moving over to 3B.

Also, Alvarez >>> Triunfel.

by slamcactus on Nov 13, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes

give floyd over butler.

markakis is a rare 6-stat producer, alvarez at best will be a 4/5 stat producer. i see alvarez getting better than averge or better numbers in hr,rbi,r. bb and .avg not quite sure, sb not much. alvarez does have a high ceiling, but most expect him to get quite a few k’s.
floyd was lucky last yr. he’ll most likely regress.
morrow has potential, but you got matsuz and holland in the pipeline. it’s a good trade to make if your team is in position to compete for the playoffs.

by bk11 on Nov 12, 2008 9:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No...

Markakis is very good, but Alvarez will really outproduce in key ares in at least two years. He may even be up this year an putting up big numbers. Brandon Morrow and Gavin Floyd should be able to get the deal done, and if not don’t bother with the trade. Pedro Alvarez is too valuable to give up in a deal like this. If he were in a package for a bigger star like Sizemore than yes, but Markakis is not good enough. Alvarez could put up numbers similiar to what Alex Rodriguez did this year in two years and be playing at a more premium position.

by joegonzo on Nov 12, 2008 10:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What...

I meant by Rodriguez this year is batting 300 with 35 bombs and a pretty k to bb ratio.

by joegonzo on Nov 12, 2008 10:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry

Morrow at the least is an incredible closer, and Floyd a solid MRP. If you drop Alvarez its fair.

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 12, 2008 10:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1000

are you saying he is a reliever because when he starts next year your homo league is going to count those games as closer games or something, i mean did you watch last year, he isn’t pitching in relief

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 13, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What Happened to Your OF?

In general, I would outright say no to this deal. Morrow could be a frontline SP, Alvarez a frontline 3B (and Glaus is not going to be anything of value), and Butler is probably the more valuable player to you right now (if he gets to play).

That being said, your OF is abysmal. Even in a 20 person league, I would have expected you to have 1 average plus OF (Ibanez is not that). So, considering that none of your Minor league OF will be ready for at least 2 years (maybe more), trading for Markakis may be right for you because of your need for an OF and because Markakis is such a good player for that offensive format. Its a close call in my mind, and it could be swayed by who is available to replace the roster spots.

by thudean on Nov 13, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Flags Fly Forever.

The next Alvarez will be along tomorrow or the next day. Make the deal that lets you win in 2009 and worry about 2010-11 later.

by prhood on Nov 13, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Do it

To me the deal is Markakis for Alvarez plus two others. Yeah, Morrow has promise, and Floyd had a good year (I’m thinking Floyd over Butler here) and is young, but I don’t see stardom written all over either of them. So with Markakis who’s stud now vs. Alvarez who could be a stud in a few years, I’d rather have the sure thing, especially if it helps shore up a huge weakness, even “throwing in” the other two.

by journeymen on Nov 13, 2008 2:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

maybe

you are giving up way more talent for sure, but look at your outfield, it is hideous, markakis a stud OF and you have great pitching, you definitely need the hitter, give up some more minor league pitching and it would make more sense for you, but cody ross, come on now

by IHateMitchMustain on Nov 13, 2008 7:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

...

Okay guys, well thanks for all the help.

I made the trade.

Officially it was:

Nick Markakis, Noah Lowry, and 2nd round MiLB pick
FOR
Brandon Morrow, Gavin Floyd, Pedro Alvarez, and 5th round MiLB pick

by smk1363 on Nov 13, 2008 7:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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