scout.com's horrible top 50 mets prospects

It was more of an editorial decision.

The guy who does it posted a month ago that they had decided to include Murphy and Evans, because people want to see the updated scouting reports, and would want to know where they would have ranked, etc. And Murphy was only over 130 by 1 AB.

I mostly agree with including guys like that. I wouldn’t mind if they included every guy who has options remaining. I’d like to see where a guy like Vargas would rank right now, for example.

Of the other guys with question marks above:

Kunz was in his first season of pro ball and put up very good numbers in AA; 48.3 IP, 39 H, 43 SO. He’s a power sinker guy who still need more experience in how to use his stuff vs. good hitters with wood bats. Pelfrey in 2006 was at a similar stage.

Rustich supposedly has the best pure stuff in the Mets system. He just has to stay healthy and get some more innings. I don’t quite agree with thhis ranking, but there’s an argument for it.

Stoner is the first one I disagree much with, but from other reports his FB may be better than what I saw. His CB is very good, as is his command, and he knows how to pitch. Still a “pitchability” guy who I worry won’t be quite as good at higher levels. I haven’t seen him out of the pen though, where he seems to be doing well in the AFL.

Ezequiel Carrera is pretty comparable to Braves prospect Gorkys Hernandez. He has a decent chance to be a starting CF somewhere. Plus defense, speed on the bases, handles the bat well, showing a bit of pop late in the season. I think the ranking here may be justified.

Scott Shaw was a mid round pick, but he not only impressed in Brooklyn, he looks statisically right now like the most dominating pitcher in Hawaii. Hawaii is like A++. A guy doing really well there is usually ready for AA. Apparently there is also a bit of projectability there with his FB as well.

Matt Bouchard I also disagree on, but apparently he’s a very good athlete who also plays good defense at a premium position. It doesn’t make sense to me though to rank a 21 year old that high when he still hasn’t learned to hit in low A ball. And, he may have great tools, but I assume he must have had them in 2007 when he was an 11th rounder out of Georgetown.

Juan Lagares is another one that seems questionable for similar reasons. Unlike Bouchard, though, he was only 19, so maybe it is worth giving more weight to his high ceiling. But, when I look at the defensive stats, it looks like he has work to do there as well (Bouchard, just from the stats, was clearly the better defender).

Reese Havens, I believe still projects to at least be able to stay at SS, and his bat projects well enough that it’s hard to understand how anyone could rank him below Bouchard, Lagares, or Tejada. Unless there are more serious health concerns than have been disclosed?

Shawn Bowman is a guy who I suspect they have always over rated. He was apparently at one time a plus defender, but I suspect that too may have been over hyped. The bat does have good promise, and could be near ready, but after a couple of back surgeries, it seems he still suffers from back problems which could make it difficult for him to produce with regular playing time. Even with that I think he could turn out to be a useful bench bat, maybe soon. The Mets may have to decide in the next week whether to put him on the roster to protect him from rule 5.

Zach Lutz, some who have seen him apparently love his bat, but he has been in the system two seasons now and can’t seem to stay healthy, and at 22 has yet to face pitching above SS ball. Given the way some rave about his bat, I’d be afraid to leave him off a top 30, but at the same time, I’d be reluctant to rank him high until I see him perform at a level where he has to face better breaking balls.

Mejia and Marte one could argue are young players who are still both pretty raw and have a lot to prove, but they seem too low here to me (behind several older players who are still pretty raw and have a lot to prove).

Davis I can see maybe not ranking too highly, despite his high ceiling, due to his struggles so far, but I wonder then why that logic applies more to a first round pick than to some of the struggling mid rounders they have ranked above him. I can see keeping him out of the top 10, but he should probably still be in the top 20, unless we ignore college performance, and tools, altogether.

Josh Thole is too low. He doesn’t have a great ceiling; probably an average MLB backstop if things work out. But his bat is almost Dan Murphy like (with less power) and his defense is mostly good, and I like his athleticism. The big achiles heel there is his arm is a bit below average for a catcher. I can see still putting him behind Pena, who has more power potential, and probably a better defensive ceiling. I don’t see ranking him below guys like Owen, Niesen and Duda.