BA Rays Top 10
by brok515 on Nov 12, 2008 11:11 AM EST
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Print1. David Price
2. Tim Beckham
3. Wade Davis
4. Reid Brignac
5. Desmond Jennings
6. Matt Moore
7. Nick Barnese
8. Jeremy Hellickson
9. Jake McGee
10. Jeff Niemann
I don't know what other people think, but this list, like most of the other BA lists this year, seems a little off. I have no idea how they can say that Hellickson is the 5th best starting pitcher PROSPECT for the team. Moore and Barnese are nice prospects but I'm not sure how they can be ahead of Hellickson and Niemann. I would have Hellickson at 4 on this list, because Brignac took a step back offensively and Jennings hardly played. I'm fine with Price, Beckham, Davis being top 3 though of course. Any thoughts on this list, and the BA lists in general so far?
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Stunned...
I was absolutely stunned when I saw Hellickson that low. I can’t wait to read their rationale for that.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
Typical BA stupidity
Theyre obsessed with fastballs so they ignore guys who can actually pitch and are getting phenomenal results.
BA is garbage. Stop reading it, people.
BA is what Isaiah Thomas would think if he was a MLB GM.
Keith Law: Idiot.
Yeah, but he's right
Calling BA stupid is akin to calling KG at BP an idiot, or calling John an idiot. They all have different standards, and I’d wager that BA (specifically Calis) knows a lot more than this board does about prospects.
by David Tokarz on Nov 12, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
BUT
BA IS mostly stupid, unlike John and KG. They come out with a bunch of stupid things every year. Jim Bowden works in a major league front office, but I would trust just about half the people on this board to run a major league team over him.
Youre welcome to disagree with me that BA is stupid, but there’s no need to call ME stupid. That’s what makes Slurve a jackass.
This is just an internet message board. You really dont need to take yourselves so seriously that i cant mock Keith Law or BA when I disagree with them. Chill out. The word stupid is not that big a deal. Get over it.
Keith Law: Idiot.
Hellickson's middling K-rate bothers me. I wouldn't have put him as high as John
Putting him below Barnese and Moore is further than I’d have gone though. I’m impressive with their convictions in sticking to their method.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 13, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
Middling K-Rate? He's struck out over a batter per inning this year.
Including a 9.44 K/9 once promoted to AA.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Middling K rate?
WTF? He struck out over a batter an inning. He put up video game numbers for most of the season. When he was in short season ball, the numbers he put up were just as dominant as Barnese’s.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Got a response...
I asked in the Callis chat on ESPN, and he answered. Fair enough, I suppose.
Jake (KC): I was stunned to see Hellickson so low on the Rays list…what gives?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:07 PM ET ) Jake refers to our Rays Top 10 Prospectslist, which is up at baseballamerica.com. The thing to remember is that these are opinions, not facts, and just because someone ranks eighth on a good Top 10 doesn’t mean we don’t like him. I don’t see how he could rank ahead of David Price, Tim Beckham or Wade Davis. Hellickson could have ranked as high as No. 4 and no lower than where we put him. We like the chances of SS Reid Brignac and OF Desmond Jennings to become quality regulars, and LHP Matt Moore and RHP Nick Barnese are going to open eyes in 2009. None of this is a slight to Hellickson.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Nov 12, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
moore and barnese
I tell you what this kind of opened my eyes. They have great numbers, albeit in short season and rookie ball, now to hear BA say it, just adds to the riches of the rays farm system.
I was worried about hellickson’s homers allowed but he still seems like a good prospect. These two must be really good to push him down to 8.
But let’s see what they do in AA when they get there.
due respect
But this is a much more sensible list than John’s. I’ll be interested, too, in their explanation for Hellickson, but I’m not a big believer in him so not a shock there. And having Brignac where he should be is good to see.
This whole business
over Brignac is way overblown. He has him as a C+, which isn’t a poor grade – he’s a tough grader. People can make an arguement that 4 is a few spots too high and 10 is a few too low. Either arguement is like screaming about getting shorted a dixie cup full of water when filling a swimming pool – it’s splitting hairs and much ado about nothing really.
Personally, I don’t see Reid as being much more than a utility player. John seems to agree as he’s not rated that highly, as does BA’s list as they don’t have him in the 2012 line-up. The other thing to keep in mind is what John’s grades actually mean.
Helickson
Having seen him on 3 occasions last year, I thought he was generally over rated. He has very average stuff, and even then he hasn’t yet shown an ability to sustain it deep into games. He has outstanding command and pitchability, which enabled him to put up some extraordinary numbers at low levels. But there’s a reason he struggled a bit on hitting AA. His ceiling is still probably a #4 SP.
That’s still a good prospect. But I think it’s debatable whether he should really be ahead of Niemann. Niemann has better stuff, and put up impressive numbers last season in AAA (1.14 WHIP; 8.66 SO9; 2.56 SO/BB; .207 BAA). I think Niemann is one of those guys who gets overlooked because he is no longer an exciting new name, whereas Hellickson last season unexpectedly put up some great stats at lower levels and got some buzz.
by acerimusdux on Nov 12, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I like John's more overall
But my opinion differs from him too. I’d say the top 5 should be
1. Price
2. Beckham
3. Davis
4. Brignac
5. Hellickson
But honestly, 2-5 are all reasonably close depending on what you’re looking for.
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by The Congo Hammer on Nov 12, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions
New Arms?
BA seems to be putting even more emphasis on the really young arms in systems, as if further discounting arms closer to the majors (E.g. Having to defend Hagadone so profusely).
Closer does not equal better.
Especially when talking about prospects that don’t have that big of a ceiling.
Agreed
It doesn’t always equal better. However, there needs to be a balance between ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. A person who is at best a #3 and is in AA or AAA is just as good as a prospect who is in rookie or SS who could be a #1. The surety of the one balances out with ceiling of the other. Between the two, it will be a judgment call. BA consistently makes the judgment call towards the higher ceiling player when comparing the two.
Yes, it does
and it always has.
It’s an inherent institutional bias.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Ya but they're pretty upfront about their methods. We just need to understand the context
of their conclusions based on their scope of work.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 13, 2008 2:04 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with what youre saying.
Depending on who you are and what you value more is where you would rank the potential ace in SS ball vs the #3 in AA. I value the potential ace more, since they are rare. The potential three is pretty common and I feel I can live without. If a team wanted a pitcher from me and it was between Inoa and Hellickson, I would give up Hellickson. But Im a risk taker and I prefer the guy who has the higher ceiling. I feel potential #3’s can be easily replaced.
They can't be
but thanks for playing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
How can they not?
Notice I said POTENTIAL # 3s. but hey good argument back though, lots of knowledge stored there
Potential #3s that have advanced up to AA and still look like they will be big league #3 are not easy to replace
They’re a lot harder to replace than all the guys in rookie/complex ball that “could maybe become an ace if everything comes together in terms of developing secondary pitches and/or developing command”.
Agree
So far, Hagadone, Brackman, Moore, and Barnese have all been overrated by this criteria, in my opinion
I thought the Hagadone argument was weird
because didn’t he have the exact same arm last year (particularly before he got injured)? Why was he rated #7 then, and #3 now, when all he did in the meantime was get injured and have a serious surgery?
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by OldProspects on Nov 12, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I assume
because they graduated a bunch of prospects. I can’t see them arguing that Hagadone is a better prospect now than he was last year.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
Writers
I’m not too familiar with all of the writers at BA, so could anyone please give me their opinions on who is the most credible, or seems to usually have the best, rankings and opinions?
solid
some guys at BA are better than others. Some are very good, some not so good. I would say overall BA has been better the past few years than it was 7+ years ago. It takes more consideration into #s than it used to while before it was just all about tools. Now at least they try to mix and match the two
Callis
I don’t have all my data in front of me now. But I have run some regression models to predict player value against prospect grades 5 years after the prospect came to the majors. Of the people I analyzed I found the top 3 list to come from John, Callis & Nate Silver.
I’d have to get out my data to be more specific. But I do remember Callis was the best of the BA folks.
Curiousity
What was your metric for measuring player value?
I find it interesting
That most on here are getting up in arms about Hellickson’s ranking but ignoring the guy who they put at #5.
I for one am suprised that Jennings is that high considering he’s missed considerable time with injuries. Maybe his potential is still high, but I would have figured his stock would drop some.
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