Willingham, Olsen to... wait, this can't be right
by drjayphd on Nov 10, 2008 8:03 PM EST
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In three full seasons, as well as bits of two others, Willingham's a career .266/.361/.472 hitter, but he hasn't quite matched his 2006 season (.852 OPS, near-.500 SLG, 26 HR). Meanwhile, Olsen's had a rocky tenure with the Marlins, but still had a 4.20 ERA in 33 starts.
Bonifacio's arrival more'n likely means Uggla's FINALLY moving off 2B, but is that all there is to this deal?
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Nats
I see this deal as a clear win for the Nats. Yes, it drives up their payroll, but Olsen immediately steps in at the front of the rotation, and Willingham will find a place in the everyday lineup. That Marlins must see something in Dean or Smolinski.
A Gammons rumor that seems unlikely? Say it ain't so!
I love the man, but if he relayed a rumor that penguins can fly, it wouldn’t be out of character.
They fly
underwater, man. Free your mind.
Now, someone turn up the Pearl Jam and Gin Blossoms.
Washington combustibility potential
If this is true, Washington keeps getting more and more combustible. Milledge, Dukes, now adding a proven idiot like Olsen. It may work out in the long run, I’m just sayin they are accumulating some characters.
The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.
What exactly is Milledge's character issue?
High fiving fans in the crowd and loud rap music is hardly on par with a statutory rapist and a dude with DUI problems who fights with his teammates in the dugout.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 10, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
But his rap album was really bad
And he, uh, doesn’t carry himself like a ballplayer. Nudge nudge.
You sir, have poor music taste
“Bend Ya Knees” is a modern masterpiece
Milledge
Also had a ‘statutory rape’ thing around his neck during the time he was drafted.
At first glance
I like this deal for Washington. I won’t be surprised if they put Willingham at first if they can’t land anyone else (Dunn/Teixeira rumored offer). Olsen, as overrated as I think he is, is a decent lefty, and they have value. Typical Bowden – trading for a talented kid with some issues.
I’ve never understood the fascination others have had with Bonifacio. Nice, but I don’t think he’s all that unique. As for Dean and Smolinski, I’m not all that big on them, with the caveat that it is fairly early. Florida has Coghlan too, who I prefer over Bonifacio to be honest.
Way to go out on a limb
If this is for real, can anybody explain the motivation for FL?
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by OldProspects on Nov 10, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
At first glance?
At second glance and third glance this looks like a steal for Washington.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 10, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
never thought i would see the day
is it possible jim bowden actually outsmarted another gm in a trade? the guy is awful. there has to be more to the transaction then originally posted.
by RandyKutcherHair on Nov 10, 2008 8:50 PM EST reply actions
He makes a lot of steal trades I think
He just often squanders it.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 10, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
What surprises me
is that Florida wasn’t able to find a catcher for Scott Olsen. That seemed like their motivation.
Tex didn't want Salty for Olsen, didn't feel Olsen was worht it... Fl didn't want Laird and hispending arbitration
This either means Texas and Fl deal for one of FL better established pitchers or FL goes into the season with Baker or a FA C
I had heard
something about the Cardinals trying to deal Bryan Anderson to the Fish.
by The Gottfather on Nov 11, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Uggla...
could either uggla or Cantu (with baker) be going to the Dodgers in some sort of deal for Martin?
LA won't deal Martin
certainly not without someone to take his place
by count sutton on Nov 10, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
there has been talk about him being on the block
http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=105
could pick up Pudge… or get Baker back in a deal.
Isn't Martin arb eligible?
That would make him too expensive for Florida.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 10, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
there is more to it
It is Florida.
It is Jeff Loria.
It isn’t a trade that was made for baseball reasons.
All arbitration eligible players must go
No matter what the return. They kept Hanley, what more do you people want from him!?
Naive
OK, some can label me naive, but what business reason can Loria have for trading away valuable but arbitration-eligible talent? He does eventually need to win some games, right?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
evidently not
the Marlins payroll last year was 15 or 16 mil, that is only a couple mil away from a league minimum payroll. I guess he can still turn a profit if he keeps payroll so low
This hasn't been confirmed yet, right?
Bonfiacio looks like a simply bad 2B, with any value that he brings from his glove he quickly loses with his bat. Smolinski is a bad OF prospect, years away. Dean is the closest thing there is here to an interesting player, and he isn’t that interesting. There must be some mistake
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 10, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
i don't see
how Dean is “interesting” but Smolinski is “bad”
These players are interesting?
Okay, slightly sarcastic, but they’re far away and only somewhat projectable… kinda feeling that the Nats got away with a haul here.
by David Tokarz on Nov 10, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
I said
“Dean is the closest thing there is here to an interesting player, and he isn’t that interesting.” I really don’t think this is very strong praise
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 11, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
Smolinski
had had in his two years in pro ball an OPS of .789 and .725. For a corner outfielder this is pretty unexciting. P.J. Dean hasn’t done terribly in his two years in the minor leagues, posting FIPs below 4.00 both times, and an ERA of 1.57 as a 19 year old in short season A ball. Keith Law, for example describes Smolinski as a “fringy regular” at LF. Dean, on the other hand, is described as “an aggressive strike-thrower with a solid-average fastball and a below-average curve that you could see improving to average,” though will likely not be any thing significant in the majors either.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 11, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
My favorite part about this deal and the Holliday deal is
No one had any idea this was going to happen before it did. All of those “hot stove watchers” were completely surprised. :-)
Well they were Jake Peavy busy watching Manny Ramirez Jake Peavy
And they Jake Peavy Manny Ramirez Jake Peavy Jake Peavy so they Jake Peavy Manny Ramirez another time Jake Peavy understandable Jake Peavy.
That’s why.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 11, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
well are we giving scott olsen and willingham too much credit?
Olsen currently has a career 4.63 era with and hasnt had a K/BB ratio over 2.0 since 2006, Olsen has had personaility issues as well. Now obviously he was a former top level pitching prospect and at age 25 he still has a chance to reach his “potential” but his skills are not showing me anything 113 ks in 201.7 ip to go with 69 bbs. 1.64 k/bb ick.
Willingham when he was a catcher was worth a lot more then he is as a LF, hes a pretty respectable player, but if your not contending, not sure hes worth paying what he would get in arbitration. If he actually plays a full 150 game season you have a .266/.361/.472 with 25 hr and 85 rbis, he’s also going to be 30 so its not like one should expect him to get much better then that.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
so
an .830 OPS isn’t going to be worth $2mil?
as for Olsen, he was horrendous in 2007, but his other years haven’t been that bad. He’s just going to be 25 also
Jeremy Bonderman is 25
And has a 4.74 career ERA. I’m not arguing that Olsen is better than Bonderman, but he’s a young pitcher who even at his worst is probably league average, and has already shown the potential to be significantly better than that. Willingham is an above-average hitter even at 1B, let alone LF. The stats you projected for him is pretty much exactly what he did in 2006 and 2007, and what he was on pace for in 2008 – that’s pretty good
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by OldProspects on Nov 11, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
OPS+
Is the only real way to assess Willingham, in my opinion. His OPS+ numbers are at or near 120 for 3 years running. That’s a valuable player. And he made $400k last year and is under club control for 3 more seasons.
That said, I take the point on his age. I was shocked to see he was 29 in 2008. Still, he’s probably got at least 2 or 3 more very fine years before he even is at risk (and I think he is) of a decline based on the dreaded “Old Player Skills Syndrome.”
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
His background
isn’t promising either, since he is an ex-catcher with a history of knee issues.
What's the over-under for felonies in the Nats dugout next year?
They’ll need to hire a full-time security force with Dukes and Olsen in the same dugout…
Vogt early, Vogt often.
If Washington wanted more media and fans...
they would sign a deal for a reality TV show and have cameras follow those two around. It would have to be on a channel that was a little edgier though since you know Dukes is a little promiscuous. How many kids does he have again? I know it’s no where near Kemp/Henry levels, but isn’t it at like three?
Tell me you wouldn’t watch a reality show with those two… especially if they were forced to room together on the road.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
don't forget
one of those fans to blow Olsen’s cigarette smoke out of the dugout (yes, he smokes cigarettes)
So do a lot of baseball players
The media doesn’t report it much, but I’d say that 10% smoke on top of the 10% that dip.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Vintage Bowden
The dude seems to make more lopsided trades – both for him and against him – than anyone else. He’ll trade a good player for pennies on the dollar then turn right around and rip someone else off. He’s a madman on a segway.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Clearly the Marlins firesale has begun
I’d love to get a piece of that action if this is the kind of price their players are commanding.
I like how they’re not even pretending to be a competitive franchise anymore.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
well...
Kevin Gregg is gone and maaaaybe Dan Uggla, but apparently Uggla has been assured he isn’t going anywhere (have to wait for Opening Day to see if this rings true)
Amezaga is available too. Perhaps Cantu.
Amezaga
Would make a really nice defensive 4th OF for a lot of contenders
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I really don't get how this happens
Even if your sole requirement is prospects who will cost absolutely no money, then surely some team could offer more than this. Was Billy Beane, for example, really not willing to offer Vince Mazzarro for Olsen and Willingham? Hell, he’d have the beginning of an almost adequate offense with Willingham and Holliday in the OF (or Willingham at 1B). And Vince Mazzarro is a much better prospect than all three of these guys put together. This simply boggles the mind
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 11, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Dean is the guy they wanted
The Marlins do have some history of stealing good unknown pitching prospects from lower levels in deals like this, but I don’t see anything that suggests Dean is that special.
I'm fairly meh about Willingham
He apparently has the defense of a water buffalo and isn’t a truly elite hitter to compensate. Given that he’s already past his prime, he’s not much more than an average player.
That said, I don’t think the Nats paid even the price of 3 cheap years of an average MLB starter to get him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He's an average starting OF
That isn’t nothing. And if he isn’t that good of a defensive OF, even at 1B he’s an above average starting hitter. That’s value
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Nov 11, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
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