Community Prospect List: #42

by the pinstripes on Nov 10, 2008 10:07 AM EST Comment 58 comments

After 309 votes James McDonald has been declared the winner with 17% of the vote. Freddie Freeman came in second place with 15%. Michael Bowden & Brett Cecil will be removed from the poll as they received less than the 5% minimum. Matt Dominguez, Jeremy Hellickson & Jordan Zimmerman will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.

1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles)

CANDIDATES - Josh Vitters, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Triunfel, Yonder Alonso, Chris Carter, Matt Dominguez, Jeremy Hellickson, Jordan Zimmerman, Jake Arrieta & Reid Brignac

TESTERS - Greg Halman, Phillippe Aumont, Michael Saunders, Ben Revere, Austin Jackson, Alcides Escobar, Jose Tabata, Carlos Carrasco & Wilmer Flores, Michael Bowden & Brett Cecil

Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them

Poll

Who is prospect #42 on the Community List?

Yonder Alonso

43 votes

Jake Arrieta

19 votes

Reid Brignac

13 votes

Chris Carter

37 votes

Matt Dominguez

13 votes

Jeremy Hellickson

57 votes

Freddie Freeman

45 votes

Carlos Triunfel

32 votes

Josh Vitters

44 votes

Jordan Zimmerman

10 votes

313 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 58 comments

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Comments

Hellickson!

152 IP, 2.96 ERA, 162 strikeouts, 20 walks as a 21-year old splitting the year between AA and A+.

- Three pitches that grade as plus. Fastball sits 91-93, but can touch 95. Plus change grades out as best pitch. Curve is usually plus, although he’s still improving the consistency in this regard, although reports have been good.
- Plus-plus control
- Young for league, in AA at least (was 21 all year this year)
- 83/5 K/BB ratio in A+ with a 2.00 ERA in 76 IP. 79/15 K/BB ratio in AA with a 3.93 ERA in 75 IP.
- Only real knock is a bit of gopheritis in AA, which can probably be attributed to small sample size.

Hopefully he can get some support this time. He’s already about 10 spots too low in my opinion.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Next 5

FWIW

1) Hellickson (reasons above)
2) Gordon Beckham (are people getting too scared by a mediocre performance in Hawaii?)
3) Jeff Samardzija (Best fastball in the minors, put it together well in the majors, and should be able to become a solid starter down the line)
4) Angel Salome (if he was 5’10" and not 5’7", everyone would have him as a top 15 prospect. Is a lock to stick at catcher, and had a monster year at a high level, with a history of good performance. His MLEs suggest that he’d be a top-10 catcher in MLB right now.)
5) Jordan Zimmerman (Solid stuff, solid control, solid results in AA, but just a notch below Hellickson in all three regards)

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Voted Hellickson

Man, how did I miss what he did this year? I’ve been high on him for a couple of years now, but I didn’t realize he put up video game type numbers this year.

My next five would probably be Hellickson, Beckham, Vitters, Zimmerman, Arrieta-but I’m not rock solid on the the order of the ones after Hellickson, and I could be convinced to consider someone else too.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Nov 10, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2) Gordon Beckham (are people getting too scared by a mediocre performance in Hawaii?)

…that and John reporting on some serious concerns from scouts about is swing.

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beckham is

playing in Arizona actually Mr. Slurve. He also went 5-5 with 2 homers and 7 RBI a few days after the questions about his swing thing was posted by John.

Not saying it means anything, so don’t get cranky guys, but he has scored 17 times and driven in 10 in 14 games down there…1.079 OPS.

Not relevant to those stats I think he similar to Pedroia in that his phsical stature belies what kind of ballplayer he can be. He is SERIOUSLY underated on here right now IMO.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The scouting

far outweighs miniscule sample sizes all day here as it usually does/should for these leagues. Long swings / swings with holes get exploited in the upper minors and majors, not so much in the fall and winter leagues.

I know he’s playing in AFL – I just copied/pasted from Brickhaus’ post…

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay cool

It’s just a nonsense scouting report, that all. they say dippy thigs all the time.

They didn’t say his swing was LONG they said it was CHOPPY and not condusive for power. I’ve seen his swing and i can judge for myself.

He’s not giong to slug .804 but he hit in his pro debut and he’s hitting there and he, at the very least projects to HIT, unlike some of these SS “prospects” being floated around here.

BTW, I love how a tiny sample size rumor from the AFL league can lead to a report that he can’t play but when he starts to cream the ball it doesnt lead to one that he can.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beckham

I know Goldstein said that he thinks Beckham could be the starting shortstop in 2010 so I really doubt his swing his overly choppy. Personally, I think he is going to be just fine as he moves through the minors.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 10, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you think about comparing him to Kevin Slowey?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Nov 10, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

slowey? really?

i dont believe that a kevin slowey comparison is a good 1…..hellickson has alot better stuff to go with his command…sloweys FB is fringey where as hellickson can hit 95

by cubsfan1 on Nov 10, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda disagree

I’ve seen Slowey throwing 92-93 and I’ve seen video of Hellickson throwing the same. Both great control. Both give up the longball. Both undersized. I think its a decent comp.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

15 hr in 75 AA innings

That has held me back on hellickson, although I do like him more than some on the list already.

by wobatus on Nov 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

15 homers

I thing the 15 homers has a lot to do with being around the plate. Support for this is high K rate. if he wasn’t K-ing anyone and giving up the donkey ball, then I would be worried.

this is more pitch selection and lack of knowledge in locating.

I am guessing a lot of those were guys sitting on a fastball or something.

Better catchers, and maturity in locating pitches in obvious fastball counts should clean that up.

By the way, Slowey had the same problem this year on the homer ball for the same reason.

I think both mature past this obvious oportunity for growth.

by davidsabin on Nov 10, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

same with the BAA

Around the plate equaled homers and hits. His k/bb is Saberhagen-esque.

John gives him a B+ Seems about right. He probably does belong somehwere around here. I went with Alonso this round. I like Hellickson more than Jarrod parker at this stage.

by wobatus on Nov 10, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hellboy

by gogotabata on Nov 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Went with Alonso

I am truly amazed he has not made the list yet. A lot of scouts ranked him ahead of Smoak before the draft, and yet Smoak sits there at #22 and Alonso isn’t on the list yet.

Hellickson would be next for me.

Also, Daryl Jones needs to get on as a tester. Kid had an amazing year last year, and yet no one is taking notice.

by guru4u on Nov 10, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I actually think Alonso has everything Morrison has, .(300+ potential bat, 15-30 Hr power) except Alonso is going to get on base over .400 and Morrison around .350, depending on thier batting averages.

I like Alonso better.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh. Let's see how many consecutive polls Freeman can come in 2nd in!

Still going with Brignac.

by mraver on Nov 10, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Michael Suanders

is next for me

by VanillaGorilla on Nov 10, 2008 11:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Carrasco

If he ever going to get on the list?

by jahs34 on Nov 10, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping on giving Tabata and Carrasco testers tonight

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hellickson

tough between him and carter for me….then i think freeman and brignac would be next for me from this list…..

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Nov 10, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is this Hellickson's first appearance?

Given the overwhelming support, maybe we should have a re-placement poll to see if he should be higher.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Nov 10, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He might have gone a little higher

but probably not above Davis.

I’d prefer to see the testers rotate a little more often. I don’t see any problem with changing the methods for testers midway, if it improves the process. Leaving guys on that got 5% doesn’t just keep new faces from coming on, it keeps us from talking about them as much. Maybe even just drop the bottom 2 automatically.

by siddfynch on Nov 10, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Motion seconded

In previous years, we’ve gone up to an 8% or 10% threshhold as we moved on to rotate through the testers faster; the further you get down the list, the number of people who could legitimately be placed there increases exponentially.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 10, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thirded

Anyone who fails to reach 10% should be dropped back into the tester pile.

by dkdc on Nov 10, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arlo Guthrie

Would say this is now officially a movement!

by siddfynch on Nov 10, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The lack of support

for Vitters is disturbing. He’s being grossly under rated as he was one of the top HS bats in the 2007 draft and it’s not like he has done anything to drop THAT far…

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Vitters

I’ve been voting for him for awhile now.

by SBcaptain2 on Nov 10, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vitters vs. Dominguez

Maybe you could give us a little smackdown on this pair? At first blush, it looks like Vitters might come out the loser…but I don’t know what the backstory might be.

by siddfynch on Nov 10, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vitters/Dominguez

Dominguez is a kid who was very highly touted going into his senior season of HS, thought of as a better prospect than his teammate Mike Moustakas, Gold Glove potential at 3B with a developing bat. He slumped pretty badly in his senior year IIRC, and a lot of scouts were suggesting that he was pretty raw with the bat and that his swing mechanics were all over the place. Looked pretty bad in rookie ball. Hit pretty well in 345 ABs in the Sally League in 2008, which suggests he might be further along in the development curve than originally thought.

Vitters was the consensus best high school position player until being overtaken late in some eyes by Moustakas. Was ill a lot during his senior season and only hit .375, prompting a now-infamous post here by casejud about how a player who couldn’t hit .400 in high school ball wasn’t worth a high pick and that he would never be successful. Had some defensive concerns at 3B, with some suggesting that he was destined to be a 1B/LF, although I think those have eased up a bit over the last year. Has a monster bat, makes lots of contact, decent pop for his age with the potential to add much more. About the worst thing you could say is that he wasn’t inclined to take a walk, but considering how much time he had to spend on the shelf with fluke ailments, hard to blame the kid for wanting to take some swings.

by mrkupe on Nov 10, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

solid write up on domginuez

Kid has potential for a Gold Glove with a solid bat to go along with it. He is alot farther along it seems with the bat then people expected as well.

would it be too soon for sean west as a tester?

by Fishfan79 on Nov 10, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What he said.

I think the walks will come and as pointed out above, not only was Vitters anxious to take some rips, he was coached to be aggressive. I believe he has the ability to control the strike zone that will lead to more walks/deep counts. I like Dominguez as well and think both should be on the list already.

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Check that

I don’t Dominguez on my list until 48…

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm voting for him after alonso

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vitters

I know he was only 18 but I’d like to see the sucess rate in the minors for guys with a 13 – 45 K/BB rate in the Northwerst League.

To be fair, the only 18 year old kid i can find who hit as well there since 1992 has been Chris Snelling. I wouldn’t hold it against Vitters though. Snelling was a GREAT hitting prospect before inmjuries ravaged his career. Shoot, he could probably STILL hit in the bigs if he got an extended chance.

I think he’ll be a decent 3b, with the bat.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zimmerman

than Hellickson (its close), Vitters, Carrasco, Bowden

Gio Gonzalez is still under the IP mark to be a prospect. I’d say he should be a tester pretty soon.

by thudean on Nov 10, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Carter

then Hellickson, Freeman, Briggy.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Nov 10, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Okay

So Briiggy can field and CANT HIT…even at AAA ball… and G-Beckham can hit AND field and Briggy should be on the list…okay.

Note to people: Time to get over Reid Brignac!

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hellickson then Zimmerman then Carter.

This.

by Blicks on Nov 10, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tabata tester

One time!

by thegreatchris on Nov 10, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ben Revere deserves a look, and soon.

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."

by strums on Nov 10, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If 2 guys come off the list I will put the speedster Revere on the list

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Nov 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brett Cecil !!!!!

by fartballs on Nov 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I voted Hellickson here, but Cecil is the next pitcher on my list. And I still think Chris Coghlan should be getting some love.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 10, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Micheal Main

Time for him to get a tester? I still don’t even know what that means.

He probably should fall in the 60-70 range. For all the guys out there that rely purely on stats he isn’t going to blow anyone away with this past year. he got injured at the end of spring and his start was pushed back to around June. Because of that the Rangers organization held him back a bit and didn’t let him overextend himself.

In addition the reports out of instructs by people actually in attendance say he was absolutely amazing. Numerous Rangers “insiders” who publish rankings have him in the top 3 in the entire Ranger system either right behind both Feliz and Holland or in some cases in front of those guys.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brignac

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 10, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

by aap212 on Nov 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zimmermann

His name has two N’s in it people!

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Nov 10, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brignac out of the picture

Note John’s ranking of Brignac at C+. While it is one thing to like a borderline B/B+ and push him up a bit in the rankings, a C+ won’t even be sniffing John’s top 50 hitters list and I think it makes a pretty strong statement that he doesn’t belong on our top 50 prospects list.

by Dalman on Nov 10, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I’ve always thought of Brignac as more of a utility player and it looks to me as if he’s headed that way.

by slurve on Nov 10, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

If you like Brignac, then argue for him. If John’s opinion matters that much to the making of this list, you might as well just pay for the Rotowire subscription and check out his own rankings.

If Brignac comes close to reaching his upside, he won’t be the first C+ prospect in John’s rankings to do so.

My personal opinion: if you want to rate prospects, do it in a vacuum. Don’t look at how anybody else is drawing it up. Don’t let yourself be influenced, consciously or sub-consciously, by the opinions of others. Develop your own methodology, make your own rankings, and lay it out in a way that you feel good about. Otherwise it’s basically just everybody else’s list.

by mrkupe on Nov 10, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus one

It takes a lot of the fun out of it, at least what makes it fun for me anyways.

by casejud on Nov 10, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What if I disagree with John?

I think Brignac will be in the majors soon, and will be a SS who can hit for some power. The ball still jumps off his bat, and I don’t think it would take much for him to get his contact back.

by mraver on Nov 10, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sheeep

sheeeep

by daveh33 on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Curse you and your need to make me vote for people other than Chris Carter...

Hellickson it is. Alcides Escobar is the last guy I have in front of Carter, so maybe you can put him on the next poll…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2008 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Somebody remind me of eligibility criteria please.

I seem to remember this being discussed at some point but couldn’t find it among all the polls. What are our eligibility criteria? rookie status or something more than that. In particular I’m wondering whether Teagarden isn’t on because of his lousy minor league performance at the plate last year, or bec ause of eligibility. If the former, its hard to see how a likely regular catcher in the majors doesn’t deserve some attention pretty soon even with all the small sample size warnings you want to make about his 47 major league at bats.

by Dalman on Nov 10, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs