Arizona Fall League Top 20

by dkdc on Oct 7, 2008 3:18 PM EDT Comment 67 comments

The Arizona Fall League starts in about 20 minutes, and there will be plenty of big names to watch again this year. This is also the perfect chance for four 2008 first-rounders to prove they belong on the fast-track to the majors.

I looked through the rosters and came up with my top 20 "prospects" (a few of which have too much ML service time to qualify officially as prospects). As usual, the talent is weighed heavily towards the hitting side since most of the top pitching talents in the minor leagues have thrown plenty of innings.

1. Matt Wieters, C, BAL
2. Philip Hughes, RHP, NYY
3. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS
4. Travis Snider, LF, TOR
5. Max Scherzer, RHP, ARI
6. Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL
7. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
8. Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
9. Gordon Beckham, SS, CWS
10. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL
11. Brett Wallace, 3B, STL
12. Austin Jackson, CF, NYY
13. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL
14. Ivan De Jesus, Jr., SS, LAD
15. Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
16. Casey Weathers, RHP, COL
17. Adrian Cardenas, 2B/SS, OAK
18. J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
19. Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA
20. Scott Elbert, LHP, LAD

Honorable Mentions (alphabetically): Jason Donald, Greg Halman, Andrew Lambo, Lou Marson, Beau Mills, Dan Murphy, Aaron Poreda, Josh Reddick, Nolan Reimold, Drew Stubbs.

Other players worth watching (alphabetically): Kyle Blanks, Julio Borbon, Daniel Cortes, Scott Cousins, Ross Detwiler, Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle, Wes Hodges, Brandon Jones, Jeff Larish, Angel Salome, Brandon Snyder, Chris Valaika, Donald Veal, Sean West.

Now, who did I miss or rank too low/high? Has my AL East bias gone haywire?

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Impressive group this year

I’m not interested in arguing any rankings, but that seems like an abnormally awesome group compared to years past.

by aap212 on Oct 7, 2008 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

smoak

so because smoak was a late addition as a taxi squad member, apparently he can only play on wednesdays and saturdays? anybody know the deal with that?

by waka25 on Oct 7, 2008 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's not playing today

so maybe there is some truth in that.

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Oct 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

He’s on the taxi squad and limited to Wed and Sat play only

by bryeic on Oct 8, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

evidently they can become members of the main team

see: andrus, elvis – last year

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Oct 9, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murphy...

I don’t see any 2B listed on the Peoria Saguaros roster at all, but I’m not very familiar with prospects that aren’t in the Met organization. Obviously Murphy’s stock rises quite a bit if he can play a decent 2B. He’s not playing 3B with Brett Wallace on the team, but is there anyone else expected to see time at 2B? After all, the Mets were nice enough to make sure that he wouldn’t miss any time because of silly things like playoffs…

I’m still surprised and disappointed that Fernando Martinez wasn’t sent. He’ll probably play Winter Ball in the DR, but they need to get him 200 AB’s without blowing an appendage as soon as possible IMO. He finished the season with better plate discipline and power when he came back in August, and you’d think they would want to keep that going if he’s healthy…

Also, Tobi Stoner is always one to watch. Can’t say I ever touch the stuff, but that’s just a really cool name…

by MetfanBren on Oct 7, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Murphy's being tried at 2nd

I think the whole reason to have him there is so that the Mets can try it out.

by aap212 on Oct 7, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murphy

I assume he will be playing second base because that’s all we have heard since it was announced that he would play in the AFL.

by supermets on Oct 7, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leonard Davis (Washington) has played

mainly at 2b this year, as well as 3b and OF. He was also named the Nats Mnor League Hitter of the Year.

by VladiHondo on Oct 7, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murphy

Played his first game yesterday at second base. Went 2-4 with an RBI and handled four chances at 2nd (two pop ups, two grounders).

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 8, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cardenas

ranked a bit high for my liking. Solid prospect, but doesn’t have the upside of some other guys at the back end of your list. I’d also knock Austin Jackson and Ivan de Jesus down a few spots on my personal list and find a place for Halman. Even though he’s playing RF on the Javelinas, remember he’s an adequate defender up the middle. His upside as a CF is huge.

by slamcactus on Oct 7, 2008 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Snider and Gamel

won’t be playing in the AFL I believe.

by bigboy1234 on Oct 7, 2008 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

They were both listed in several AFL preview articles, but weren’t listed on rosters. I’m not sure if they are joining late or are just not coming at all.

Same deal for Elbert and Brandon Jones.

by dkdc on Oct 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

Taylor Green replaced Gamel and Ryan Patterson replaced Snider.

by gunkdog on Oct 7, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd move Jeffress up

Maybe even to #9. Otherwise, I like the list

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 7, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

worth watching

Bogusevic

by uwbadger on Oct 7, 2008 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AA leader in BABIP

Worth watching but strange peripherals that kinda scare off a lot of the prospect gurus

by laxtonto on Oct 7, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gurus my rear end

The dude is still worth watching, for reasons having nothing to do with his BABIP no matter how good or bad it was.

The guy was a first round pitcher who just picked the bat back up after a few years whose had success immediately. Its worth watching.

No ones saying his 360 or whatever AA batting average makes him the top prospect in the land

by nms on Oct 7, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Couldn’t have said it better, or more snidely, myself.

by casejud on Oct 8, 2008 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be completely fair

he was seen as a guy that could go either way out of college and IIRC most teams liked him better as a hitter

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Oct 9, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't he college teammates with Owings?

What a ridiculous two-way team. I bet they only needed a 12-man roster.

by aap212 on Oct 9, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for one year

Owings and Bogusevics junior (and final) years. That was a real good team
Tulane went to the College World Series that year.

Bogusevic was actually only a merely “good” hitter that year because he was bothered with a hammy problem that cut his homers from 12 as a soph to 0 as a jr.

by nms on Oct 10, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From KLAW chat from t he AFL

Sam (Corpus Christi): Keith, please keep an eye on Brian Bogusevic while you’re in Arizona. With the Astros’ terrible system, he might be our best prospect.

SportsNation Keith Law: I’ll see him again, but after two games I’m not seeing it. I think everyone is getting very excited over 120 good at bats.

by laxtonto on Oct 9, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Law at his finest

TWO GAMES! I CAN DEFINITELY SEE HIS FUTURE!!!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Oct 9, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

Yeah, never mind that real scouts who watched him in those 120 AB liked him. What’s even funnier is that Bogusevic has only played in 1 game in the AFL and left after 3 innings. 1 single in 1 AB, 1 run, and 1 play in the field apparently is all Law needs.

by astrosfan76 on Oct 9, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you miss the part where Law said he was going to see him again?

Relax, guys. He said “After two games I’m not saying it.” That’s not the same as “After two games of watching him, I’m positive he’s a nothing.”

by aap212 on Oct 9, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im starting to think that people arent giving enough credit to the fact

of how rare the jump Ankiel made from SP to hitter really was. The attrition rate from position player to pitcher and pitcher to position player is EXTREMELY high.

Besides Ankiel, name me another one in the last 10 years to become an average MLB regular after reaching AA as a pitcher? Keep in mind that dozen’s of players are switched each year.

I hope the kid does well, but the odds are so stacked against him (don’t forget he will be 25 in Feb) the likelihood of him panning out is minute. The hype surrounding Bogusevic has less to do with his overall talent and likelihood to succeed with the switch and more to do with the atrocious Astros minor league system.

by laxtonto on Oct 10, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

depends

on what you consider panning out. He may not have the success that Ankiel has had and there would probably be less optimism in the industry if Ankiel hadn’t make the transition. But, he was a 1st-round talent as a bat, so he has a lot more natural talent as a hitter than what, 99% of those other hitters who’ve attempted the transition?

I think he still has a lot more to prove. I want to see how he does in a full season before I pencil him into a big-league lineup any time soon. But, I disagree that the hype is largely because of the farm system he’s in: When was the last time anyone cared about the Astros’ farm system, anyways? Really, that a guy put up those kind of numbers at AA after such a long layoff is a great story in any organization. Factor in that the guy had 1st-round talent as a hitter out of college and people are going to be curious as to what he can do.

by astrosfan76 on Oct 10, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why make any kind of judgment now?

Yeah, he’ll probably see him again, but saying he’s “not seeing it” after just 1 (successful) AB in a game? Yeah, he gets paid to have an opinion, but come on. Why not just say he needs to see more of him before making a judgment? That he’s misleading, at best, about how little he’s actually seen him makes him even less credible. I’m not expecting him to continue hitting .360, but I’ll take BA’s judgment over Law’s dribble any day.

by astrosfan76 on Oct 10, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Law put Mitchell Boggs in his top 100, I swear I think it was his top 50, but clearly I don’t care enough to go do research to find the words of a moron. I had never heard of that guy before, but when I saw his top 100 I knew right then and there anyone could do that guy’s job better…and that isn’t a rant, I mean that completely, bro, it’s ok to not just copy and paste Sickels and BA’s lists, but I promise when you come up with completely unique ideas those are called “wrong opinions” and that’s a real phrase, it means you’re an idiot.

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 16, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wheres flowers?

by colerocks on Oct 7, 2008 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Jay212033 on Oct 7, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lambo

Lambo deserves to somewhere on that list.

by thefordhamflash on Oct 7, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He is

He’s an honorable mention.

by slurve on Oct 8, 2008 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice list

I would only move Austin Jackson up a bit. I think he would slot in between 7-9. Really can’t argue with the list DK. (btw long time no see Dk…)

by cowboy4eva on Oct 7, 2008 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IMO,

Austin Jackson is a top 5 center field prospect, and I believe he is the next Bernie Williams for the Yankees. Same type of player..

He’s got to be in the top 10 of this list.

by schmosterballs92 on Oct 8, 2008 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That .765 career OPS is not exactly knocking my socks off

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Career OPS is useless for someone who's obviously progressed from year to year

Don’t forget that Jackson was primarily a basketball player in high school, so he has a steeper learning curve than most. Look at his OPS this year and it’s a more valid argument, but you have to take into account the fact that he’s still very raw.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 8, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS in general

is somewhat useless for looking at minor leaguers.

by nms on Oct 8, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it isn't

You can take almost any old season inn the minors…lokk at the OPS leaders relative to age of course…and you will see the hitters who become the best in the big leagues. There are many exceptions and the younger a plyer is the less his previous record in the minors matters but OPS still can’t be described as “somewhat useless” ,whatever that means, in any way really.

Lets try something. YOU tell me who YOU think the best hitting prospects in the minors are and I bet they all have high OPS. Not sure what you mean there.

by casejud on Oct 9, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what?

you have just lost your speaking priveledges forever, moron

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 16, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah...

and ERA, WHIP, BB, K are useless stats for minor leaguers too, most mlb pitchers get shelled in the minors and then win cy young’s in the mlb once they get there

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 16, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell is wrong with you?

I’m not exactly certain where you received the right to offer or remove “speaking privileges,” but it seems like if you’re going to call somebody a moron, you should at least spell all of the words in the sentence correctly.

Second, his point was obviously that looking strictly at minor league OPS without consideration of age or league or other factors is pf limited value. Granted, he probably could have specified this, and “somewhat useless” is probably a slightly stronger phrase than I would have used, but it certainly is understandable to anybody who actually listens rather than denies others the right to speak.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 16, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just ignore him

Pretty sure this guy is a troll who has been around before.

by aCone419 on Oct 17, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The hell is wrong with you using his career OPS, use his OPS this year which is .008 points higher. Enough with you trying to discredit Austin!

But really I was kind of surprised he started in CF last night over Stubbs.

by bigboy1234 on Oct 8, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gerald Williams or Bernie?

Just kidding. But his minor league numbers don’t impress me much yet, albeit i understand he is toolsy.

by wobatus on Oct 8, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Career OPS is the best measure of a minor leaguer

Great analysis.

by aap212 on Oct 8, 2008 3:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not a great measure, but it's a decent back-of-the-envelope assessment of a player's hitting ceiling

since it’s hard to actually hit better in the majors than in the minors.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um

I’m pretty sure many, if not most, all-star MLBers post higher peak MLB OPSes than they did minor-league ones… largely because slugging numbers from minors to majors are way different

by nms on Oct 8, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe

They call that “development”.

by guru4u on Oct 8, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's check the AL starters

Manny—exactly equal
Hamilton— had a weird career, I’m excluding him
Ichiro— didn’t play in the minors, but had a higher OPS in Japan
A-Rod— .003 differential
Jeter— .042 differential
Pedroia— .017 differential
Youk— .027 differential
Mauer— .025 differential
Bradley— .025 differential

You ask me, for a 2-second back of the envelope measurement, that’s pretty godd**n accurate. The only guy with a major differential was Ichiro, and he didn’t enter the majors until he had passed his theoretical physical prime.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay...

David Wright: .922 MLB OPS, .861 MiLB OPS

Carlos Beltran: .853 MLB OPS, .783 MiLB OPS

Miguel Cabrera: .922 MLB OPS, .781 MiLB OPS

Chipper Jones: .956 MLB OPS, .888 MiLB OPS

Magglio Ordonez: .891 MLB OPS, .746 MiLB OPS

This is why 2-second back of the envelope measurements are pretty useless.

by Fanon on Oct 9, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Age

I wonder, and I’m just theorizing here, if any of that had to do with the batter’s age when they came up to the majors? ie. if they were allowed to do a bunch of learning in the bigs when they were, say, 22 compared to other guys that refined their skills in the minors and didn’t really come to the majors until they werre 24/25 years old. Just a thought. Obviously, there are players that don’t fit that (Jeter and A-Rod for example from that list).

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 9, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is

kind of the point I was trying to make.

by nms on Oct 9, 2008 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We wouldn't be cherrypicking here by any chance, would we?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cherry-picking

Sure, it’s cherry-picking for athletic types who were young for their leagues. High school draft picks who succeed tend to have better numbers in the majors than they do in the minors, while the opposite is often true for college players. This dialogue started over Austin Jackson, who has typically been young for whatever league he’s played in and is one of those athletic types who will likely need a bit longer to put things together. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure he didn’t play baseball full time until after he was drafted.

by Fanon on Oct 9, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

triunfel and Halman

Nice lines yesterday. Maybe triunfel can carry over his post-all star performance and reagin some of his staure. Awfully young for the AFL.

by wobatus on Oct 8, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

triunfel is very young for AFL

lambo is the second youngest and he’s 2 years older! everyone else is 21 or above…..the fact he can hang with these guys (and in High A) says a lot about his skillset…….19 at AA next year is very impressive

by Wheelhouse on Oct 8, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like andrus

except andrus is actually a better prospect hmmmm

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Oct 9, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lots of similarities there

of course both have advanced quickly through the minor league ranks

couple key differences though:

elvis has a much better glove and is obviously faster
triunfel is a year and a half younger and has shown better power potential

elvis is the better prospect now, but given that he’s older that isn’t that surprising

by Wheelhouse on Oct 9, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kris Medlen

Is anybody else interested in this guy? Besides Braves’ fans of course.

by parish on Oct 9, 2008 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weird situation

He was advertised as a “bullpen only” guy when he was coming up. I figured him to be an 8th inning option in Atlanta next year or maybe in 2010. But he started struggling at AA, and, to get him more innings, they began to start him and he started just killing the hitters there. He’s worked more on his secondary stuff, and, despite his size, I’ve got assume the Braves brass is at least considering leaving him as a starter for at least the 2009 season.

by mraver on Oct 9, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scherzer

I know it’s early, but I wonder if anyone here was among the ~300 people that watched in person as Max Scherzer open the Phoenix Desert Dogs AFL season in dominant fasion a couple days ago. His line: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K. The strikeouts aren’t what we’ve come to expect from Max but still, he simply doesn’t allow many guys to reach base…period. Curious to know if anyone saw that live…?

Also, they’re obviously stretching him out in anticipation of him being a starter, but is the opinion here that he can stick in that role? With their bullpen options (Qualls? Lyon? Rauch? yuck…) it seems they might consider him as a closer…? Let me know what you think.

Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.

by Giants_Junkie on Oct 9, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

keith law was

not much info though:

“I was at Scherzer’s start instead of Hughes’. Scherzer was his usual self, 92-94, good slider, violent delivery.”

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=22891

by Wheelhouse on Oct 9, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Break down of some of the guys

Hey all,

We put together a little breakdown for the AFL.

Click on the team to the right to see each team preview,

http://rotoexperts.com/content/view/684/144/

Poe

by bpoe13 on Oct 10, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kyle Blanks should be top 20 EASY!

.292/.382/.455 in pitching-friendly MWL at 19 years old
.301/.380/.540 in the Cal League (home park Lake Elsinore is a pitchers park) at 20
.325/.404/.514 in TX league (wind blows straight in San Antonio) at 21

He just turned 22 in early Sept. and he mashes!

Blanks isn’t an “all or nothing” guy either, he has never struck out 100 times in a season…

…Not even honorable mention? Whatever…

by pffriberg on Oct 12, 2008 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rudy Darrow

I really think that you all should take a look at a pitcher in the Detroit Tigers farm system name Rudy Darrow. His stats speak for themsevles.The one stat that will jump out at you is his Fo/Go. As one guy put it he gets more ground balls than a fungo. He throws from a very low arm angle in the low 90s and tops out at 94.I wouldnt be surpised if he doesnt get a shot at a bull pen spot sometime in 2009.

by kjohnson44 on Oct 25, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs