Alexi Ramirez or Robinson Cano
by mjr20 on Oct 6, 2008 5:39 PM EDT
65 comments
Who do you think will be better for the next 2-3 years? Alexi seems to have entered his prime despite the fact that his age of 26 seems iffy, and will Cano find a way to put up great second half numbers year round? or will he continue to struggle? Who is the better player for 2009, and who will have a longer, more successful career?
I think Cano will bounce back from his awful first half this year, and put up respectable first half numbers hopefully. Alexi is showing brilliant power and overall had an amazing year in only 136 games. He showed a .290/.317//475 despite getting off to a slow start in April and May. I am not sure who my pick is for the better 2009, probably Alexi, but I would like to hear any feedback from anyone on their opinion.
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Cano, no question for me
Alexei’s on-base skills make me cringe, but I think he will continue with a decent average and good power, but we have more of a track record to trust from Cano that he can bounce back for a good 2009 and beyond.
by chrislikeskane on Oct 6, 2008 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OBP
If on base skill is your biggest complaint about Alexi, I don’t see how you can like Cano much more. Cano averages 25 walks a year and had 16 his rookie year in more PA’s than Alexi had this year when he walked 18 times. Neither one of them walks much at all, but I’d think that maybe Alexi’s slight advantage in power and his speed advantage would be enough to at least make them even, if not put Alexi slightly ahead.
I say this as a guy who has both in a fantasy league, so I’m hoping for a repeat of 2008 for Alexi and a bounce back year from Cano.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Oct 6, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
Yeah, good point. However, in the end, it doesnt matter HOW you get on base, and we have seen Cano put out .365 and .355 OBP seasons before this abomination of a year. I suppose its a matter if you think alexei will do better or worse next year, and put up OBP numbers like those, versus whether Cano can return to those numbers. My money is on Cano returning to those numbers over Ramirez getting better due to a longer/better record in the majors for Cano and being at least a year younger (who knows how old alexei is).
by chrislikeskane on Oct 7, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
The only reason Cano posted an OBP of .365 is because he hit .342 that year. That’s an IsoD of .023, lower than the .027 IsoD that Alexi posted this year. I don’t think that Cano is likely to hit .342 again, so I’m not sure that’s an attainable number for him. He did have an OBP of .353 in 2007, but he walked 39 times that year, the next highest walk total was this year at 26, a drop off of 33%. Now, I’m not saying that Cano couldn’t possibly walk that much again, but unless he bounces back to closer to the 2007 walk rate, he isn’t going to be much better than Alexi at getting on base. Both of them have batting average driven OBP’s, which isn’t a good thing.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Oct 7, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only if you value a walk over a hit it’s not a good thing. I don’t see how you are going to hold a 342 average and a 39 walk season against him. I am saying they are good things, you are saying that they aren’t. I guess we are at an impasse.
And if this was a good season for alexei, and a bad season for cano, and alexei has a batting average driven OBP of .317, then i’m definitely going with cano.
by chrislikeskane on Oct 7, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're not getting what I'm saying.
Cano has never shown the ability to hit anything close to .342 other than one flukey year. His minor league numbers don’t reflect it, and he’s never been within 36 points of that in the bigs. Cano did walk a little bit more in the minors, but he really hasn’t shown that in the bigs other than one year. Until he either repeats a .342 average or nearly 40 walks or better, he doesn’t show much more ability to get on base than Ramirez.
You’re saying his unrepeated numbers are good, which they are. I’m just saying they may not be repeatable. If they’re not repeated, what do we have? A guy that should hit for an average in the .285-300 range with a low walk rate…..like Alexi Ramirez. If they remain that similar in OBP, I will take Alexi’s power and speed advantage. If Cano can improve his walk rate or become a consistent .340 hitter, then I’ll have to rethink things.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Oct 7, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are making a valid case against Cano
which I totally understand, but you aren’t making a valid case for him AGAINST Alexei Ramirez.
He needs to become a consistent .340 hitter to allow yourself to rethink if he’s better than Alexei Ramirez who hit .290 in his first season, which has been considered a good year for him, in the bigs and is 28 years old? Those are retarded conditions. Who is a consistent .340 hitter, anyway? Those are first ballot hall of famer numbers.
In the year after this “fluke year” you speak of, he still hit .305 in ‘06, with a .353 OBP and a .488 SLG. All of those numbers are better than alexei’s 290/317/475
You will take Alexei’s power over Cano’s, and yes, Cano had an awul year at the plate all around in ‘08, but my point from the beginning of this thread is that he had 2 seasons before this of .525 slugging and .488 slugging, both better than Alexei’s 08 numbers, which is all we really have to go by. So it’s not a clean cut statement that Alexei has better power—it’s totally arguable.
For me, a lot of guys come to the bigs and are hot the first 2 or 3 times around the league before the pitchers figure out their tendencies, and I need more evidence that Alexei will get over that hump before I’d bet on him over Cano.
by chrislikeskane on Oct 7, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
it just depends how much slack you want to give Cano and how rough you want to be on Ramirez. I realize that Ramirez is one year older than Cano, but he’s jumping from playing in Cuba to the bigs. That’s like what, the jump from AA to the bigs I think? The fact that Ramirez hit as well as he did should be a point in his favor I think. I guess if you think that Ramirez is only going to hit this well and not any better at all, then that’s fine. I think we’re going to have to either take all of Cano’s seasons into account, or throw out both outliers-2006 and 2008. It’s not fair to just write off his struggles this year yet put so much stock into numbers I he hasn’t ever approached again. He slugged over 500 because he hit .342 that year. Normalize it to say .310 and his slugging is .491, knock it down to his career average of .303, it’s now a .485 slugging. I think that’s a bit more in his range really. And yes, that puts him about 10-15 points of SLG% ahead of Ramirez, but Ramirez hit 33% more HR’s this year in about 125 fewer PA’s than Cano. Hell, take Cano’s career best year, and Ramirez hit 2 more HR’s in about 150 fewer PA’s. Cano hits lots of doubles, Ramirez looks like a 25 HR guy at this point.
I like Cano, and would like to see him settle into numbers like his 2007 season, which I think is possible IF he can up that walk rate. I don’t think you’re going to see numbers like 2006 or 2008 from him again. But I also think that Ramirez will hit pretty close to what he did this year. I’ll take the slightly lower walk rate that comes with more HR power and the speed at this point, because I think Ramirez has the potential to hit better than he did this year.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Oct 7, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hrmm...
I’d wager that it’s unwise to use the minor league numbers of Robinson Cano as a reference point. We’ve seen him post 3 seasons at or above 297 in the big leagues from ages 22-24 while proving to be a scorching (and streaky) line drive hitter. Cano has clearly evolved since his time in the minors, and it’s about as fruitful to compare Cano to his minor league self as it is to do so for Hanley Ramirez. I’m not putting Cano in that class, but I am saying players do get better, especially as they move closer to their late 20’s/30.
I will not deny that Alexei Ramirez is a great talent, or that I’ve been very impressed by what I’ve seen of him, but I do not think I’ve come into contact with enough data (scouting, mostly) to really draw a conclusion on his future. I can, however, say that minus a really terrible start of the season, Robinson Cano wasn’t all that far off of his usual pace. He’s 26 next season, and I’d wager he’s a very good bet to rebound back to something like 300-320/350-360/500-520. Cano’s getting closer and closer to his peak and this was just a down season, in all likelihood. If 310/355/510 with good defense and a high contact rate from a solid 2b doesn’t excite you, I’d imagine very little will.
I’m not calling this either way, but I am saying that there’s an incredible amount of pessimism on this board about a very, very good young player who just one year ago looked like he was poised to become a superstar. I think a very, very large amount of this skepticism is based on 3 things:
1) Robinson Cano has a spotty minor league record. Somehow, 3 highly productive big league seasons, showing a consistently high BABIP (internal skill?) are not enough to erase a less than stellar minor league track record, if you don’t account for ARL.
2) Cano doesn’t walk a ton. As we saw this year, that can come back and bite him during cold spells, etc. However, Cano’s also shown an ability to post very high batting averages due to a very sweet swing that produces a great deal of contact and, moreover, a stronger % of extra base hits. It seems that any player who doesn’t draw a walk is thought of as a fluke around these parts, when it may just be a part of an alternate (and successful) style.
3) Cano is a Yankee. This is held against him since… well, I guess since people just don’t like the Yankees. I may be a Mets fan, but I can easily appreciate the very good second baseman across town and I’d happily take him, character issues and all, onto our club.
Cano did have some major league ha! issues this year, but I think he remains a strong bet to ameliorate his performance next season due to the fact that he has proven himself a superior baseball player in the past, and is far too young to suddenly start his decline (Baerga comp or no). Sorry for being so long winded, but I don’t see why there’s so much antipathy for an otherwise very good young player coming off a rough season, and I’ll put myself in the minority that sees Cano returning to all star levels.
by GuyinNY on Oct 7, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're overstating things a bit
Take your projected lines for him for next year. I can see projecting him to hit .300, I can see that without much problem. I don’t see him hitting .320 though, that just seems a bit high. If he hits .300, he’s going to have really up that walk rate to post a .350 OBP though, he’d even have to increase some to to have a .360 OBP if he did hit .320. His career IsoD(OBP-BA) is .032, you’re projecting him to raise that to .040-.050, that’s something he’s shown capable of only once. Now, I think alot of that comes from his approach. Because he does make such good contact, he doesn’t take alot of pitches trying to draw walks. And that’s fine if he’s hitting .300+, but that’s alot to ask I think. The slugging percentages in the 500-520 range seem a bit high too, I’d say he’s more of a .480-.490 guy, which is fine.
I’d love to see him post a line like you suggest, I just don’t know that it’s reasonable. I’d say .295/.330/.485 is very possible, and still makes him a good player. I just think you’re a little high on the projections. His 2007 line is probably what I see him settling in at, maybe just below that. I’m not knowledgeable enough about BABIP to say whether or not Cano’s extremely high numbers are truly sustainable, but they don’t seem like they should be based on his line drive rates.
I don’t see people really being pessimistic about Cano, as much as not everyone is projecting multiple batting titles and high 800 OPS figures like so many Yankee fans did after his 2006 season. Cano had a crazy 2006 season and tons of expectations were heaped upon him at that point. He’s now had two years that haven’t lived up to the hype, so maybe it’s not people being down on him as it is people being a little more realistic? Don’t get me wrong, I think 2008 was just as flukey for him as 2006 was, just in opposite directions.
As for the Yankees hating, well alot of it is deserved at times, but as much as I don’t like the Yankees it’s no reason to discount Cano. I like the kid and would be happy with him on my team as well.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
by gatling on Oct 7, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're probably right that he won't hit .320
but in his three previous years, he batted .297, .308 and .342. .The difference between a .308 and a .320 is about 5 hits – I agree that .320 is optimistic, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 7, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it does matter how you get on base
in terms of predictive value.
by alskor on Oct 7, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fantasy or real?
fantasy, alexei ramirez
real, all depends….there’s rumor now that ramirez may move to short if cabrera leaves…his value offensively if he can play even league average defense at that position would make him one of the elite hitters at the position…..
btw….how does his age seem iffy?! you know what he had to go through to verify who he was now before he came here?! this isn’t 1998….it’s a LOT harder to get fake papers for someone as public as an athlete….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 6, 2008 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i was thinking fantasy, I have Alexi and another owner is considering trading me Cano staright up for him. And about the age, I don’t know Ive always been skeptical about a 26 year old Cuban import rookie, i don’t know, maybe its just me, I have no idea what he had to go through to verify his info.
by mjr20 on Oct 6, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
it’s a LOT harder to get fake papers for someone as public as an athlete….
Unless of course, you happen to be from China…
by AucklandGM on Oct 7, 2008 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
um
faking papers on chinese athletes in china = not hard….
faking papers on any foreign athlete entering the US now = hard…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 7, 2008 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you have a humorectomy as a small child?
Lighten up, man.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2008 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
humorectomy
my comment is intented to extend the jest….i’m not sure where you think i was attempting to be a comedy goalie….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 8, 2008 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Real v Fantasy
I think this is a situation where the answer diverges in “real life” versus fantasy. I agree that Cano is a better bet to post a OPS+ near 120, like he did in each of his first two full seasons. However, I think that Alexi’s speed/power combination is unique, and for fantasy I’d take him for 2009 over Cano.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Oct 6, 2008 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brian Roberts
I’d take him
I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!
by Buzz Bissinger on Oct 6, 2008 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ramirez by a mile
Cano is beginning to look like the next Carlos Baerga.
by Bravesin07 on Oct 6, 2008 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+!
Cano is a bust. Those BABIPs werent going to last.
by alskor on Oct 6, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
there has been plenty of disscussion on how hitter’s BABIP skill isn’t truely bound to the .300 rule
by RollingWave on Oct 6, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, he's agreeing with you
Cano’s stats are remarkably similar to Baerga’s in their early 20s. Baerga sort of hit a wall after his age 26 season, and never really had another good year. He’s saying the same thing will happen with Cano.
Incidentally, I disagree. I think Cano will come back next year
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 6, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he was agreeing
would he have titled it “Ramirez by a mile”??
by alskor on Oct 6, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
nevermind… Im not sure who you were adressing here…
by alskor on Oct 6, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was addressing you
He is saying that Ramirez is better than Cano, or in other words, Cano isn’t that good. Isn’t that what you think too?
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 7, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it is...
but I was giving him a + and agreeing with him…
…?
by alskor on Oct 7, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh!!!
I’m sorry – I’m an idiot. I misunderstood
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 7, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats pretty weak analysis in my book
Its seems that you’re looking at an MLB 2bman who put up very strong seasons at ages 22, 23, 24 and then when he puts up a flubber at 25 you’re calling the 22-24 years the fluke.
That seems incredibly unlikely
by nms on Oct 7, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, to be fair
I, along with many, was calling his performances at age 22, 23 and 24 to be lucky. Many people have been calling for this down year for two years now…
the surprise to me was that he had that many good season. Im not being sarcastic at all. Here and elsewhere I kept on saying “how can he keep doing this?”
by alskor on Oct 7, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is
when a guy does what he did, especially at those ages, it is incredibly unlikely that it is a fluke or due to luck.
by nms on Oct 7, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
When people have been calling for a down year, and he continues to produce for THREE years, it is unlikely that it was only luck behind his success.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 7, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's unlikely
but not unprecedented, Carlos Baerga being one great example. I agree though that I think Cano will probably come back
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 7, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baerga didn't get "lucky"
for 5 years.
He was a really good player for 5 years. Then he got fat, and got bad.
Cano could turn out the same way, that doesn’t mean the string of success before he had was a fluke,
by nms on Oct 7, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Theoretically, why couldn’t the same thing happen with Cano?
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 8, 2008 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it could
but that is a completely different thing than the original poster said, which I responded to.
The original poster said that it was a luck thing, Cano’s first three years were lucky and that last year was expected because Cano’s BABIP numbers needed to regress.
A Baerga career path wouldn’t have anything to do with that. Any player can fall out of shape and start sucking. Cano’s body type and rumored laziness might make that more likely than with other folks.
But that is a completely different explanation of a guy turning bad.
That isn’t “bad luck” if a guy gets fat and gets bad and a guy getting fat/bad doesn’t mean that his earlier success was luck
by nms on Oct 8, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure this is a great comparison
Since Alexei will be a shortstop, his natural position, next year. If he plays plus defense there, and he certainly has the range and arm from what I’ve seen, I think he’ll be a much more valuable player even if Cano ends up being slightly better offensively.
by thejd44 on Oct 7, 2008 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't see it
If Ramirez isn’t a better 2B than Cano now, and he isn’t, I don’t see him becoming a better asset at SS than cano is at 2B…whew. That gave me a headache writing that. Love Alexei. I think he can hit 30+ homers next year even if he walks 30 times but I don’t see him being an average SS with the glove. Now, in CF…that I can see.
by casejud on Oct 8, 2008 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you see Alexei Ramirez hitting 30+ HRs next year...
but you dont see him “becoming a better asset at SS than cano is at 2B?”
How’s that work??
That is virtually HALF of Cano’s CAREER HOME RUN total. Home runs arent everything, but there is virtually no way Ramirez could hit 30+ HRs as a shortstop and not hit well enough in other areas AND play bad enough defense to make him less valuable than Cano.
by alskor on Oct 8, 2008 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because
I don’t think he is a good enough SS for them to play him there. I think he’ll stay at 2b. Even if he DOES hit 30 homers I think thier offensive outputs will be similar in totall. i also don’t think Ramirez is quite as good as Cano as a 2B at this point.
by casejud on Oct 8, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen any metrics
But Ramirez appears to not be a good 2B, but a great one. And he has a fantastic arm, so I don’t see him dropping off a whole lot at short. It should make up for the slight dropoff in range.
by thejd44 on Oct 8, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I was under the impression Ramirez is a very good 2B. Didnt he come in behind Ellis and Pedroia on most metrics?
Cano, IIRC, started hot, but ended up with so-so defensive numbers on the year… I dont subscribe to Bill James.com, though, and if anyone had the fielding bible numbers it would be appreciated.
by alskor on Oct 8, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
most Yanks fans will tell you
at some point Cano completely stopped trying to get any grounder that wasn’t right at him.
by nms on Oct 8, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more reason
to discount him.
Is it your position those grounders didnt count…?
by alskor on Oct 8, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh
what?
When did I say those grounders didn’t count?
by nms on Oct 8, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Misunderstood
Sorry.
In retrospect, that also sounded 150% more dickheaded than I meant it. It was basically rhetorical.
I thought you were saying he played very good defense up until he stopped paying attention when the Yanks fell out of the race… like you were saying “He CAN play excellent defense, but he gave up on the year so we cant judge him on the second half, etc…” I was refuting that idea, but I guess I took a logical jump to get there that i shouldnt have.
My point was really that the fact he stopped caring/paying attention to defense is as big a strike against him than as if he was just a poor defender… know what I mean?
by alskor on Oct 8, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm pretty sure Cano can be a decent defender
if not a great one, but a guy who pretty clearly isn’t giving effort when everything isn’t going well worries me.
I’m not real high on Ramirez – I hate his inability to draw a walk – but I think I’d rather have him going forward especially if he can be an above-average defensive SS.
by thejd44 on Oct 9, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sample
Cano still has a career ops of .800 despite a bad year and a fairly large sample size. at this point it’s hard to argue that Ramirez is better unless similar trends remains next year.
(from a real perspective that is, he’s never going to steal bases like Ramirez )
by RollingWave on Oct 7, 2008 3:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Personally,
I want to see how Ramirez adjusts this year now that the scouting report is out on him. His year was solid without a doubt but looking at his .231 SEC there is a lot of collapse potential for him, however you certainly could have said the same thing about Cano (which I did at one point) especially earlier in his career. Cano did end up having a decent second half bat-wise and has the bigger sample size so I will go with him over Ramirez next year.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Oct 8, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cano
will be a .330 30 120 guy for years to come..
by schmosterballs92 on Oct 9, 2008 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
30 what, 120 what? His best HR year was 19 in a year where he had 617AB, which is the most we can ever expect him to get. and has yet to break 100 RBI or Runs in a monster lineup. In fact, he only came close in a year he hit better then .300 in the top lineup in baseball.
It doesnt look like he has developed any additional skills as a hitter (patience, power, speed) that would allow him to improve greatly over what we’ve seen thus far.
I think .310 20 100/100 is a pretty optimistic base line for him. Which is VERY good for a 2B.
by ADLC on Oct 9, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.280 14 80
Very good 2B, but clear step or two behind Kinsler, Ramirez, Pedroia, Roberts, etc…
by alskor on Oct 9, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're retooling his swing.
He has more than enough power with that swing, and with the short porch he has the ability to hit 30.
by schmosterballs92 on Oct 10, 2008 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
He has more than enough power with that swing, and with the short porch he has the ability to hit 30
Heck I could see him hitting 30 or 40 more…
…for his career.
by alskor on Oct 10, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow..
If you honestly believe this year was the real Cano you’re either stupid or completely biased. Pedroia will never put up these numbers again (which mind you wasn’t better than Cano’s last 2).
by schmosterballs92 on Oct 10, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cano vs. pedroia
cano’s “last 2” that were so great (06-07)….combined 155 runs, 82 doubles, 8 triples, 34 homers, 175 rbi, 9/7 SB/CS, 57/139 bb/k ….average that out….78 runs, 41 doubles, 4 triples, 17 homers, 88 rbi, 5/4 sb/cs, 29/69 bb/k
pedroia’s 07-08 seasons…combine 204 runs, 93 doubles, 3 triples, 25 homers, 133 rbi, 27/2 sb/cs, 97/94 bb/k…..average that out….102 runs, 47 doubles, 13 homers, 67 rbi, 14/1 sb/cs, 49/47 bb/k…..
so in his first two full seasons, pedroia’s bested cano’s best two in runs, doubles, steals, and bb/k…..but if you still think cano’s going to outproduce pedroia going forward, go right ahead….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 11, 2008 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
by
OPS+ cano’s 06 and 07 is nearly identical to this years pedroia but if you want to use RBI’s and runs instead your welcome to
by skiinginNJ on Oct 11, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
youve already proven all over this board that youre both stupid and biased, and now I see we’re trolling again. Very nice. Its always nice to try to attack other posts in other threads because I disagreed with something you said in one thread.
But ignoring the inflammatory parts of your post and just responding to the substance, there is absolutely no reason to believe Pedroia will not continue at around this pace. All the evidence points to his true talent level being around here. He hit .317/.380/.442 and then .326/.376/.493. What could possibly lead you to conclude from those performances that “Pedroia will never put up these numbers again?”
Secondly, Pedroia’s seasons ARE indeed better than Cano’s last 2:
Pedroia
07: 520 ABs, .317/.380/.442, 112 OPS+, 42 Ks, .334 BABIP, 35.9 VORP
08: 653 ABs, .326/.376/.493, 123 OPS+, 50 Ks, .336 BABIP, 62.3 VORP
Cano
06: 482 ABs, .342/.365/.525, 126 OPS+, 54 Ks, .363 BABIP, 49.1 VORP
07: 617 ABs, .306/.353/.488, 120 OPS+, 85 Ks, .331 BABIP, 40.5 VORP
08: 597 ABs, .271/.305/.410, 88 OPS+, 65 Ks, .286 BABIP, 8.9 VORP
I think just given those numbers most people would take Pedroia, but for a quick and easy experiment lets add their VORP from the two years in question. This works nicely, because VORP is a counting stat, like HRs, which you accumulate.
Cano: 49.1 + 40.5 = 89.6
Pedroia: 35.9 + 62.3 = 98.2
Given that Pedroia has been a slightly better defender over the respective periods I would say Pedroia has clearly been the better player, though Cano had two good years.
Again, youre the one putting words in my mouth – I said above Cano has been slightly unlucky this year! I said below he could probably be a better defender than Pedroia, and I said below I expected him to bounce back a good bit next year. I do think Pedroia is a virtual lock to outproduce him going forward. I think that is the general perception among knowledgeable baseball fans who dont have their heads up their butts – or Yankee caps on those heads.
The question of whether Cano or Pedroia is better has long been settled, and youre one of a very few still willing to argue it.
by alskor on Oct 11, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
clearly behind
pedroia? this year maybe, pedroia’s year this year was impressive, but largely the same as cano’s 2 previous years. but with worse defense
one more year like this one from cano and ill agree, but until then ill call this one an outlier
by skiinginNJ on Oct 9, 2008 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Pedroia considered one of the 2 or 3 best defensive 2B in baseball?
From what I’ve seen, he’s up there with Ellis and Utley. Was Cano ever even close to those guys?
by thejd44 on Oct 9, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is
at least by most metrics and scouts.
Cano DID have a reputation as being an excellent defender though. In fact, I would guess he could slightly outperform Pedroia on defense – he certainly has the tools for it. BUT his lapses of concentration are extremely troubling in and of themselves.
by alskor on Oct 10, 2008 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
I could be silly for saying this, but I’d rather have a defender who is a little bit more limited physically but who I know is going to be out there trying to make plays than a guy like Cano who may or may not feel like going for a relatively easy ground ball. Cano might make the occasional play my guy can’t, but at least I know what I’m getting with my guy.
by thejd44 on Oct 10, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its not like were comparing him to Kinsler here, either...
Pedroia, Ellis, etc… are top notch defensive 2B. In fact they both came up as SSs IIRC.
Those two cover a tremendous amount of ground. Cano ranks among the elite defensive 2Bs based on tools… but something’s missing.
by alskor on Oct 10, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cano
was plus 17 (i think) last year in the fielding bible, so its a little more than just being based on tools.
this year, it looked to me like he brought his struggles at the plate onto the field, and while i cant confirm that since im not him, it seems to jive with him being a very good defender early and then getting worse as the season draws on
by skiinginNJ on Oct 10, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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