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Ryan Ludwick and fantasy trades

Im am in a deep 24 man league with large minor league rosters, and was lucky enough to draft ludwick last year.  I am suspect of any kind of repeat performance, i know he showed a decent line with i think 14 HR when given at-bats last season and progressed nicely this year, but seriously, a 30 year old - what more is there to expect? 

 

so my first question is where does ludwick stand next year, i feel like moving him at his highest value but if he is worth keeping, let me know.


if i were to move him, which of these packages seem to be the best? by best i mean, highest potential balanced more with someone who gets AB's/starts as a major leaguer next year.  i love high upside, but being so deep i need starters too!!

first: ryan tucker, jeremy sowers, juan morillo

second: adam miller, cla meredith, mike mccormick

 

before anyone asks, my OF is fine, but of course always could use pitching, this trade is not done in terms of saving money, moving contracts or any of that crap that is league specific. 

my thinking is sowers has shown two productive seasons, 150  and 180 innings split between AAA and cleveland the past two years, he is healthy and building his innings up; he is older, 25, but showing well and now has 49 major league starts unders his belt, moving next year to maybe a 'breakout' year with him reaching the 'fabled' 50 start mark. 

ryan tucker is solid, jumped from AA to the bigs for 5 innings this year, he looks good at 21 and it doesnt matter if he ends up starting or in relief, as i heard he could be their future closer.

juan morillo is a young relief pitcher for colorado whom should get a shot at being in the bullpen next season.

adam miller really needs no introduction, but INJURY concerns!! i have heard that none of them deal with his throwing arm, but is he over this? does his talent make him the best choice? he is currently pitching in dominican winter leauge with a stat line in 3 starts, 10.2 innings, 7k, 9.28 era; i expect that to normalize a bit with more starts, but which miller will be there next spring, the guy that dominated AAA this year for 28 innings or nothing

cla meredith is a solid mlb reliever, nuff said.

mike mccormick is a solid young, offenseive minded catcher for tampa bay with 13 HR in A ball. a couple years away, but catching depth is always nice and he could push navarro in a couple years if jaso doesn't.

 

i read statistics of these players till my eyes bleed, but surely i would love some commentary about performance, speculation, scouting reports, anything that might add more depth to the question. thanks guys.

 

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Both of these packages are nowhere near what Ryan Ludwick is worth. Deal him for one very good prospect rather than 3 mediocre ones.

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Oct 30, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

See if you can get a Top 50 prospect for him.

by supermets on Oct 30, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

ludwick

is he really worth that much?? i know what 37 HR are worth nowadays, but does he have the value to grab a top 50 guy?

i agree that if i can get a top prospect i would, but what kind of comparables does ludwick have? is there any other players in mlb history that show a good year following such a breakout at a late age?

thanks for the input guys

by Moozazan on Oct 30, 2008 8:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Doesn't hurt to try

What’s the worst that happens? You walk away with one of these packages instead of a top 50 guy. Sell your player.

As far as comprables go, I honestly don’t know. I’d say Craig Monroe, but that would probably scare everyone off. Maybe Dan Uggla?

by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

awesome comp

there never is truly an exact match, but i am stricken that i did not realize how old ibanez was before he started stringing together productive seasons

by Moozazan on Oct 30, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

You raise and develop hitting prospects in the hope that they will one day hit 37 homers. Yes, he’s worth that much.

by boonitez on Oct 30, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neither offer excites me in the least. I’d personally hold onto Ludwick since I don’t believe you’re likely to get a decent offer until his performance is a little more established. Risky I know but there are good risks and bad risks and this is IMO a “good” risk. I don’t think you should expect his performance to improve but it’s not unlikely that he can maintain a 270/340/500 line with 30+ HRs for several years. If I was going to move him it would be for 2 very good prospects since the latter also represent significant risk.

by prhood on Oct 30, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Mike McCormick? Huh?

did you even look at this guy’s stats? he hit .216 with an OBP of .276 as a 21-year-old in Low-A. On top of that, he struck out 93 times in 375 ABs. I prospect-watch more than anyone I know and I’ve never even heard of this guy. Who considers him a prospect? Sounds like the guy you’re trading with is giving you his junk. Check out McCormick’s stats from 2008. They are god-awful. Or am I missing something?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Michael%20McCormick&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=489101

by psugator on Oct 30, 2008 10:17 PM EDT reply actions  

mccormick

its a very deep league man; i estimate somewhere between 1500-2000 prospects are taken and they are minor league only, no college or high school. but point taken.

by Moozazan on Oct 31, 2008 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah but

the previous two years he looked pretty good. Also, even last year his power, BB rate and K rate were alright; the problem was a god-awful BABIP. He’s certainly not a top prospect, but there’s an outside chance he’ll eventually become a starting C

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

For those of you that have a BP subscription, they did an excellent writeup on Ludwick fairly recently. Since it is subscriber content, I will not get into the specifics. What I will say though is that you need more than either package offers to trade Ludwick. BP expects a little regression, but not that much.

by guru4u on Oct 31, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

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