Royals acquire Jacobs
by killa on Oct 30, 2008 12:47 PM EDT
186 comments
The Royals acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for RP Leo Nunez. As a Royals fan, I like the deal. Granted, we have a perceived logjam at 1B, but among Gload/Butler/Shealy/Kila, absolutely ZERO of them have shown the ability to hit consistently at the major league level yet. GMDM has shown the ability to find good RPs on the cheap, so my general thought is any time you can add a guy who can hit 30HRs for a reliever, you have to do it. Jacobs isn't a stud, but he has shown more power than anyone currently on KC's roster has. Hopefully, Gload and Shealy can be moved, and Butler/Kila can fight for 1B/DH time.
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Good deal for KC
IMO. I like this deal for the Royals. Jacobs isn’t anything special, but he’s a useful chip if utilized correctly. Nunez is young, can throw hard, but I don’t see anything outside a run of the mill middle reliever. This gets KC some pop in there, which certainly helps that lineup, and gives GMDM a bit more flexibility in his offseason moves.
by toonsterwu on Oct 30, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Check out Jazayerli's take
I think it’s a bad move for KC, and I think he does a good job of explaining why:
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2008/10/memo-to-dmgm-wtf.html
by aap212 on Oct 30, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good move by KC
Shealy did well this year, but they could still use Jacobs LH power there.
by acerimusdux on Oct 30, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great deal for KC
Jacobs isn’t perfect, but it’s a steal to acquire him for a middle reliever. He’s entering the prime of his career and hit 32 bombs last year while playing half his games in Florida’s pitcher-friendly stadium.
The Royals just became a better team.
by deezle on Oct 30, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if they are trying to make a move this year
it’s a decent move, because Nunez is expendable. Maybe one of the 1b/dh guys gets moved to the OF?
by MightyMoose on Oct 30, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
marlins free up room
for some of the guys down on the farm. Old man McPherson, Hernandez, Morrison
by wobatus on Oct 30, 2008 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oops, sanchez
not hernandez. Mixed up my gabys. and my gorkys.
by wobatus on Oct 30, 2008 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just hope
it doesn’t cause Butler to lose at-bats.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does this...
free up 1B for Uggla’s eventual move there? I still think that is where he ends up soon. And the sooner the better.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Oct 30, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
Marlins have the seat warm for Sanchez and Morrison. Uggla might fit better at 3b/lf.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No need
No need to move a nice young reliever for a 1B you simply do not need. 1B = Killa. DH = Butler. Still maybe have Shealy in that mix too. Just no need for Jacobs.
by rdf8585 on Oct 30, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
the more i think about this deal, the less i like it. Not that Jacobs isn’t a decent enough grab, but we are trying to get the kids playing to see what they can do. This year is make or break for Killa, so why not let him and Butler share the load.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who's "we"?
Dayton Moore has said publicly that rebuilding is no longer an excuse, and this team needs to start moving forward. The team had it’s best season in years, and they want to build on that, instead of handing over a 1st base job to two unprovens in Shealy and Kila.
If either one performs well enough to beat out Jacobs, great, but it seems like Moore wants to move past the point of just handing jobs to people, instead of allowing them to earn it, just because they’re the Royals.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
How’s it going eazy?
Anyhow completely agree. Furthermore, if Ryan or Kila can win the job, then you get a good power bat off the bench for a middle reliever. That’s not as nice as a regular first baseman, but still, it would be a fine deal, IMO.
Maybe I’m a little low on Nunez, but I just don’t see anything special about him.
by toonsterwu on Oct 30, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's fair
hopefully that moving forward means getting starting pitching help.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But this is not moving forward
The link up above Rany’s article is great. The 2008 Royals had the fourth lowest walk total in MLB history since 1931. This team flat out cannot get on base. Jacobs had a .299 OBP last year. How many Jose Guillen type hitters are needed on this team?
Nunez is a good reliever. I don’t think he’s great, but he does have value there. I don’t see how dealing for an offensively and defensively challenged first baseman is a step in the right direction. He is also arbitration eligible, which means his salary will increase for each of the next three seasons. That matters to a cash strapped team like KC.
by count sutton on Oct 30, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes it is
1. Jacobs > Nunez. I don’t think anyone will argue that.
2. Yes, we were awful in OBP last year. Guess what? We were awful in HR last year as well. Can we only make player moves if they help in every single category?
3. Guillen and Jacobs both had career lows in OBP last year. If you’re a believer in reversion to the mean like I am, it seems likely that both will get a bounce next year.
4. Again, Jacobs > Nunez, or any middle reliever we have. Moore has shown an uncanny ability for building a solid bullpen with spare parts (see Ramon Ramirez, Nunez, Soria, Tejada, Horacio Ramirez, etc, etc). I have no problem losing Nunez because I have the utmost confidence that Moore will have no problem replacing him.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You can't find a free talent like Jacobs?
If you just want 25 home runs and don’t care if the OBP is dreadful, can’t you find a guy like that on someone’s AAA team?
by aap212 on Oct 30, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Hessman.
Val Pascucci.
Dallas McPherson.
Terry Tiffee.
The list goes on.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scott McClain
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Phelps
Nelson Cruz.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Oct 30, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz isn't free anymore...
but, eh, we can keep going.
Russell Branyan.
Dan Johnson.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kila Kaaihue
no wait, he walks also.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Oct 31, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and of course, none of them did it at the MLB level.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Oct 31, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 31, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is proof that they can’t do it?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No proof they CAN either
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 31, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you thick?
They wouldn’t be free if they had already done it at the MLB level. GMs love past performance. Jack Cust has actual value now (granted, still less than he ought to have) because he’s a 30 HR hitter in the majors. Ditto Ludwick.
The point is that there’s no real reason to expect them not to do it at the MLB level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 31, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree
How is one of the worst 1B in baseball better? The Twins were worst in the league in home runs they were a game away from winning the division.
What are the Royals building for? They want a .500 record? I doubt that Jacobs puts them over the hump. I would rather get a useful long part than a guy like Jacobs. He is on the team to keep 1B warm until Hosmer arrives. A lot of guys can do that.
Jacobs’s career OBP is .317 so I hope you’re not holding out for too much improvement there.
IMO, adding a guy who is no better than average offensively and a liability defensively is not the type of acquisition a budget strapped team with bad offense should build.
by count sutton on Oct 30, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
did you see what we had at first base last year?
This is better. Believe me.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Oct 31, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It might be better than what you had last year, but it’s likely not better than what you could have this year.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right.
maybe this was linked to on this thread already, so apologies if so. but, if anyone wants even more commentary on this, cameron sums it up pretty nicely right here. 15 runs worse than league average is not what you want to acquiring, let alone trading for.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mike-jacobs-trade
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Royals 1B
Look, Gload was probably the worst 1B in baseball last year. I don’t question that and I think I even posted it on a thread a couple months ago. My point is that the Royals have been acquiring average/mediocre players for years now. And they suck. Once you think they finally have something resembling a future, they make a move for a fringe player at a position where they need to focus on premier offense.
Honestly, I think the Royals have good momentum. I like their starting rotation. I think Gordon, Butler, Kila, Moose Tacos, and Hosmer are good young players who deserve a shot. If you disagree with the evaluation on those players, that’s fine. It does not change the fact the Royals should not target guys like Jacobs.
by count sutton on Oct 31, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nothing like finding the one guy who posted a worse OBP than ross gload.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Love it for the Marlins, not so much Royals
They free up a spot for a good prospect, improve their bullpen, save money where as the Royals block a spot for a youngster for a guy to hurt their already pathetic OBP…
by cowboy4eva on Oct 30, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would disagree with you
Nunez won’t make it another full year the rest of his career… great upside potential… no ability to stay healthy.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Oct 31, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Royals fan, mixed feelings
I would have liked to have seen what Kila and Shealy can do. And Jacobs OBA just shows how little Dayton regards that valuable stat. Still, its nice to get a guy with 30 HR potential for a reliever, albeit a very good young reliever.
Almost seems like the kinda move a guy makes to keep his job, rather than improve the team long-term.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 30, 2008 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Love it
Nunez may be a young reliever with potential, but Mike Jacobs just hit 32 HR in a pitcher friendly park. Jacobs posted a 514 SLG last season, and a 109 OPS+. He’s obviously a flawed player (speed, defense, contact issues) but he addresses a need, isn’t going to be too expensive, is team controlled, and most of all, is a sure thing.
Moore has decided to start trying to expedite the Royals’ move to contention, and adding a proven slugger entering his prime (28 in 2009) for a reliever is the way to do that. As has been stated above, it’s a move that gives the Royals some breathing room on Kila(to see if he’s for real), and at minimum, a chip worth trading. I’m surprised the Royals were able to get him this cheap. Lefty bats that can hit 30HR in a pitcher’s park do not grow on trees, and low OBP be damned, Jacobs is good for 60 XBH and should be able to drive in runners from the 5-6 hole. This is the kind of smart move that winning teams are built on.
by GuyinNY on Oct 30, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can Jacobs play LF?
If that’s the case, it’s great for the Royals. Bat him 6th, and watch him hit bombs. The low OBP will hurt you , but not that much coming from the 6 hole and you can still stick Kila at 1B and have Butler at DH.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can’t even play first. Jacobs playing LF would be fun to watch.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ookay...
Can Kila or Butler “play” LF?
I kinda feel sorry for the Royals at this point.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure about Kila, but Butler and Jacobs should both be DH’s.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kila
Kila has been extremely slow-footed since high school. Seriously doubt he’s any quicker now that he’s probably 20 lbs heavier.
by kazuokev on Oct 30, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kila is basically a DH
I’d actually compare him to Jacobs at 1B. Just makes too many mistakes.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweet, so the Royals are loading up on DH’s. That’s how I sometimes approach fantasy drafts.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
109 OPS+ is pathetic for a defensively incompetent first baseman like Jacobs
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
20 home runs topping your team is pathetic in 2008.
A 109 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at, especially when your alternatives are Ryan Shealy and Ross Gload. . Jacobs’ BABIP was low (264) last season, his BB% jumped, and he generally seems to be trending towards his prime. He should also benefit from getting out of Dolphins Stadium. You’re right that Jacobs is a poor defensive player, but Jacobs immediately becomes the Royals best option at 1b, particularly as they try and start competing next season. Butler’s a DH and I’d rather let Kila spend some time in AAA to make sure 2008 wasn’t a fluke/delay arbitration.
Jacobs has his flaws in defense, contact, and base running. However, none of this can change the fact that Jacobs will fill a need by bringing much needed pop to the middle of the Royals’ order at a good price. I don’t see how acquiring a cheap lefty slugger entering his prime for less than market value can be construed as anything other than a win for the Royals
by GuyinNY on Oct 30, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"less than market value"
one could argue pretty easily that what jacobs will be making will exceed his value to the royals. deciding to give up talent to acquire something like this makes the valuation worse. it’s a relatively minor bad deal. but these things add up.
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Argue it
one could argue pretty easily that what jacobs will be making will exceed his value to the royals.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next season, probably not
The $3-4 million he will make is about what you should play a player who, like Jacobs, is about 1 win above replacement level.
After next year, he will be overpaid relative to his production.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what does it cost to get a poor defending 1B who will put up an OPS+ of 110?
dunno yet of course the exact amount jacobs will end up signing for/get in arbitration but matt stairs signed a two year deal for, what, $3.25M last offseason? such players are all over the place. i see paulthomas has posted while i am writing this and his estimation is a good one. and the royals gave up a player for the right to pay that? yeah, it’s a minor deal and it’s a minor amount of value they’re losing. this falls more into the meh/why category than anything.
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Stairs?
How does naming one player prove your ridiculous assertion that Jacobs’ salary will exceed his value?
Please show me the surplus of young, controllable, everyday players that are floating around on the market and can put up 110+ OPS. Matt Stairs is a platoon and has no upside. Jacobs was third among 1st baseman in terms of HR/AB as a 27 year old. Does he have a perfect game? Of course not. But the idea that he is or will soon be overpaid is a silly argument that currently has no merit.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whatever. you want me to waste my time listing a bunch of freely available players who could put up below average production at 1B? go get rich aurilia.
finding someone to do that is second only to finding a below average DH in degree of difficulty.
as pointed out, $3 million or so is what you pay for a 1 win above replacement player. that’s about what they’ll pay him next season and that’s about what he’s worth. they traded the marlins a player who is cost-controlled to an even greater degree. they’re probably losing another million or thereabouts by trading that away. if you want to tell me there’s upside, okay. i don’t think he’s got much but i wouldn’t take your path of blithely dismissing anyone with a different opinion. of course, feel free to come back with your gaspings that this is ridiculous, silly and has no merit. there wouldn’t be fifty plus posts on this trade and a bunch of articles and blog posts on other sites questioning this trade if i was so batshit crazy. but don’t let that dissuade you from breaking out the useless rhetorical devices.
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"below average"
By definition, a 110 OPS+ is above average production, not below average.
If Jacobs is overpaid, there should be a surplus of 1st basemen in the league that outperform him and are paid less, correct? If so, why can’t you take 5 minutes to list all these players?
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO
By definition, a 110 OPS+ is above average production, not below average.
Not at first base it isn’t. The average first baseman in the NL hit .277/.359/.479 and .266/.346/.447 in the AL. Jacobs hit .247/.299/.514. And that’s not even taking into account his horrible defense. Why didn’t they just pick up Josh Phelps for free if this is what they wanted?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying he would have been an above average AL 1b?
Also, you’re using the word average a bit strangely. If it was the median, then that would still mean that half of all 1B have OPS lower than that, which would mean that having an OPS 34 points below the (higher, NL) average means that still a few teams couldn’t get a 1B better than Jacobs. But it isn’t the median – it’s the average. There are, in the NL, 1B like Albert Pujols who had an OPS of 1114, nearly 300 points above the NL average. There was no starting 1B with an OPS of .548. Lance Berkman’s OPS was .987 – the equivalent below it would be around .700 – again, no 1B did that badly. The point of this is that for every 1B who has an OPS significantly above the average, considering there aren’t one who do significantly below the average, that must mean that there are a lot of starting, major league 1B, with OPS’s below the average. An OPS .025 points below (again, the higher NL) average isn’t a disastrous figure at all – there were probably at least 5 teams with 1B below that in the NL alone. And that doesn’t even take into account that his .813 would have been above average in the AL, nor his odd park numbers, nor his bizarrely low BABIP
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.299/.514 is not a better hitter than .346/.447
47 points of OBP is definitely, unquestionably worth more than 67 points of SLG.
That’s also unadjusted for league difficulty, which probably lops 20-30 points off of Jacobs’ total.
You’re right that Pujols etc skew the average upward, but “average” also includes the at-bats of bench scrubs, emergency fill-ins, and so on.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 31, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t forget Giants “1B”.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.299/.514 is different from a .346/.447
It depends what you’re looking for.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're looking for "fewer runs", the Jacobs line is better
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 31, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You should be looking for good baseball players. Not for HR’s or some other half-baked idea.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Nov 1, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess we aren't being clear here.
when i refer to production, i’m not referring to only offensive production. it’s overall production. the guy is bad in every other facet of the game. and i’d call OPS+ a pretty blunt measure with which to measure offensive production, considering it weights OBP and SLG the same, which we all know isn’t true. but it’s convenient. and 110+ isn’t particularly good for a 1B, no matter which part is propping it up. he is an overall below average 1B.
and because it’s so obvious that the royals arguably already have such players and there are others out there that it would be a waste of five minutes. we’re dealing with some imprecise measures, of course, so opinions and assumptions will necessarily inform whatever conclusion one draws. i would point to this link as one measure that finds ryan shealy to have been more productive overall than mike jacobs last year. and that was in, what, less than 100 PAs? mike jacobs ain’t much to look at. but if you like his upside, okay. seems like taking a guy from a pitchers park to a more extreme pitchers park (iirc my park factors) will sort of hurt some of that upside, which i imagine would largely come from his power.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/22/639856/best-first-basemen-of-2008
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention he’s moving to the tougher league.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's going from the NL East to the AL Central
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, to a tougher league. For a fun, SSS example, look at what happened to Miguel Cabrera. Plus, Detroit has a much better park to hit in than the Royals do.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah. and the point people keep making about him being in a pitchers park in florida is rather irrelevant considering he's moving to a similar, if not worse, environment for hitting.
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How so?
Kauffman Stadium has a more favorable park factor than Dolphins Stadium, no? This in addition to mounds of anecdotal evidence that a player like Jacobs is exactly the kind of guy who benefits least from Dolphins Stadium (based on where his power is). Check out his home/road splits. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Jacobs puts up 275/325/525 next season in KC. That’s a nice value.
by GuyinNY on Oct 31, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as i said above (and probably should have reiterated here)
i recalled that kauffman was a pitchers park similar to dolphins. if i’m wrong, i stand corrected. maybe someone has recent numbers at their fingertips to confirm either way.
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected.
I will say that I’ve always wondered how park factors can vary from year to year in any major way. It seems to me that aside from some changes in weather, there really shouldn’t be that much variation in how a ballpark plays.
by GuyinNY on Oct 31, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's why it's best to take a three year average, assuming no substantial change in the park.
of course, there are often changes in the layout and stadium that can affect things. put in a big stadium scoreboard (sound like anyone?) and it can affect things. add seats. replace seats. obviously move the fences. so on. all these have to be taken into consideration.
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It IS relevant
here’s an explanation from hardballtimes.com how dolphins stadium actually BOOSTED his HR numbers:
Power
—————-————-——-—————-———————————-——————-————
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | HR/FB | FLA tHR/FB | KC tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF FB% |
—————-————-——-—————-———————————-——————-————
| 2006 | 25 | Marlins | 469 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 6.6 | 37 |
| 2007 | 26 | Marlins | 426 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 2.2 | 42 |
| 2008 | 27 | Marlins | 477 | 32 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 0.6 | 42 |
—————-————-——-—————-———————————-——————-————
One of the best things about HitTracker and True Home Runs is that we can see how a player would hit in a different environment. This is exactly what I did with Jacobs, as you can see above. Despite a big rise in HR/FB this year, Jacobs’ True Home Run numbers have been on a three-year decline. It looks as though KC’s Kauffman Stadium will be a little tougher on him than Dolphin Stadium was, which is especially bad news given that he derives most of his value from his power (that batting average certainly isn’t doing anything for him).
He will be 28 next year and could turn things around, but Jacobs doesn’t look anywhere close to the 32 home run beast he appeared to be in 2008. And since he’ll be trading in Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Hermida for David DeJesus, Alex Gordon and Guillen, the RBIs and runs could suffer a little too.
Overall, Jacobs clearly loses value in this trade and is probably in the bottom tier of first baseman this year in mixed leagues.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fantasy-fallout-mike-jacobs-traded-to-royals/
by alskor on Oct 31, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, thanks.
i guess i wasn’t clear in how i was meaning “relevant”. people seemed to be saying that he’d hit better in kc, which i thought wasn’t the case based upon the park. thanks for nailing this down for us.
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh...
I was agreeing with you. He WILL be hurt by the move. Somehow he was pull happy enough to be the 1-100 guy who had his HR numbers HELPED by Dolphin Stadium. In Kauffman, many of these would have been warning track flyballs. You can superimpose an overhead of Kauffman on his spead chart but I dont know how to post it here.
by alskor on Oct 31, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hittrackeronline.com
http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_60504&type=hitter
As you can see, just more evidence that Mike Jacobs was an illusion in 2008.
by alskor on Oct 31, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's such a bad park
Then every one of his hits, HRs etc is worth more, which means he is more valuable than your usual 109 OPS+ hitter, in the same way that (in the Old Coors), a 130 OPS+ guy was worth less than your usual 130 OPS+ guy
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm having trouble with this one.
OPS+ takes into account park factors. what am i missing?
by larry on Oct 31, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hrmm...
My understanding is that even adjusting for park factors, there’s still some evidence that it’s easier to post a high OPS+/ERA+ in an extreme ballpark, sort of like how it’s easier to post a very high OPS+/ERA+ just after an era of expansion.
It seems logical that even adjusting for park factors, Jacobs likely some number of homers to Dolphins Stadium/Shea/Nationals Ballpark that he couldn’t get back otherwise (even playing in CBP, Wrigley, etc.) that could be above and beyond what’s adjusted for.
by GuyinNY on Oct 31, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and, from looking at this this thread, i think at least ten names have already been thrown out.
so, instead of compiling them myself into one post, i’ll simply incorporate by reference.
he's stubborn. and lacks discipline. and i hope he drowns in front of his children. but I’ll have to document all that when I see him next year, assuming he stays here, which he probably will. i don’t wanna be dissin’ without substance.
by larry on Oct 30, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OPS+
OPS+ is calculated based on park adjusted values. but it is also important to look at this stat with positional context. In 2008, the average OPS at 1B was .816. Jacobs’s was .812. This would actually put him just a hare below average on offense.
by count sutton on Oct 30, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many 1Bs were worse?
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by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
pathetic is having Ross Gload and his 650 OPS as your everyday 1st baseman.
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by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kila Kaaihue? Ryan Shealy? Billy Butler? Alex Gordon?
The only person making them play Russ Gload is the frigging manager.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What have the first twp names done at the MLB level?
And why should they simply be handed an everyday MLB job on a team that wants to compete?
Butler will be the DH. Gordon is a 3rd baseman.
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by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As Tampa clearly proved you can’t play young, unproven players if you want to compete.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
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by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon is a third baseman “third baseman.”
Corrected.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So one good year and one bad year at 3B complete writes him off
Nice use of defensive saber stats. Even though I think they suck, I look at them. And they take a few years to average out.
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by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So one good OK year and one bad mind-bogglingly awful year at 3B complete writes him off
Corrected.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guh
So one good OK year and one bad mind-bogglingly awful year at 3B complete writes him off
Correction corrected.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mind bogglingly bad huh?
You do like to stretch things don’t ya?
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by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright, maybe not mind-bogglingly... he beats out Encarnacion, Cantu, and Melvin Mora...
Not exactly the world’s greatest company, though, is it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had a few web gems. thats all that counts really.
"I can resist everything but temptation." - oscar wylde
by cfizzle on Oct 31, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One bad year, agreed
he was +4 to +5, last year. Which year is more indicative? We don’t know.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did the manager
sign Gload to a 2 year deal?
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, but he could bench the guy
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could he?
GM’s ofteh tell their managers who to play. Go ask Howe or Macha if Beane ever influenced the lineup cards. If you think benching a guy that your GM just signed to a multiyear contract is a smart move, then you wouldn’t be a MLB manager for very long.
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by King Billy Royal on Oct 30, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is missing the point
which is that the fact that Gload is getting playing time is someone’s choice, and not some kind of immutable law of nature. They do not have to give Gload playing time, and it’s perfectly legitimate to compare Mike Jacobs to their other legitimate options at the position as well as to Gload.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is not the point
The point is that you blamed the manager for playing Gload stating:
“No, but he could bench the guys”
Do you know what happens to coaches who bench players that the GM wants him to play? They get fired. I agree that Gload should not be starting, but to state that the manager can bench whomever he chooses is not based on any fact (i.e. Macha/Howe listen to Beane).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 30, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
You’re probably right.
I don’t care, and this is not relevant to the topic of the thread. The point is that if the GM wants to bench Gload and tells the manager to do it, he can get time for the other options. He’s not stuck playing a crap-fest just because he signed the guy to a dumb contract, and he doesn’t have to trade for some minimal upgrade to give himself an excuse not to play Gload.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget to give some love the guy who extended Gload for two years
DMGM loves replacement level players (well, guys who at some point in the season might be at replacement level, before their flaws drag them below: Guillen, TPJ, Gathright, Gload, Jacobs if he plays 1B… I’m leaving off all the good position players he’s acquired, though)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few points
I don’t think that number gives you a proper perspective on what sort of year Jacobs had in 2008. First of all, Mike Jacobs was significantly hurt by his stadium. At home, his OPS was a pitiful .758 – outside of Florida, his OPS was .872. Not sensational, but not even close to pathetic. Second, he did that despite having a terrifically low BABIP – no matter the rubric you use, Jacob’s should have gotten a lot more hits than he did. His .264 BABIP was more than thirty points lower than it had ever been. it was that low despite having a LD% of 20. What makes his numbers even more impressive is that his road OPS mentioned above was accomplished with a BABIP there of .252. If his BABIP would have been, say .300, then his OPS overall would have been in the .880 range. His OPS away would have been .965.
The biggest concern about Jacobs isn’t that he had such a bad year last year; rather it’s that he had a career year and we don’t know whether he’ll repeat it. His ISOP shot up .to .267, good for 6th in the NL, what it had been in the minors, but more than .050 than he had ever done before. Then again, we always knew that Jacobs had power, and he did turn 27 last year. If Jacobs continues hitting like he did in 2008, then there is a very good chance that he will be a well-above average 1B for the Royals.
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by OldProspects on Oct 30, 2008 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let's go through the numbers
Keep in mind that, at the end , 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (at 10.5 runs per win, thus 21 runs) is Average. -21 runs/2 wins below average is replacement level for NL position players (it’s 2.5 wins below for AL position players because of the AL’s pitching superiority)
According to Stat Corner wOBA-based bRAA (not quite Baseruns/linear weights, but better than VORP because it gives better relative values to walks and home runes), Jacobs was 3.9 runs above average (park adjusted). Let’s just round it up to 4 runs above so I don’t have to do any more math than necessary.
So he’s above average, right? Um, well, let’s figure in the position adjustment first. For first basemen (following Tango and MGL) , it’s (approx.) -12.5 runs. So 4 – 12.5 = -8.5 runs, or 8.5 runs below average. So at this point, Jacobs is a little over 1 run above replacement. Not a bad cheap platoon guy, huh?
well, let’s see how his defense is. I’ve read that Dewan’s had him at about -22 runs (once adjusted to runs amounts). Let’s just call it -20 to be safe.
-8.5 runs + -20 runs = 28.5 runs below average. If 21 runs below average is replacement level, then Jacobs was 7.5 runs below replacement level this last year.
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OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And what if more of those line drives
fell into for hits? It’s not out of the question that his batting average might have climbed even 50 points if he would have had a more normal BABIP. Wouldn’t that change your numbers?
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by OldProspects on Nov 9, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LH power off the bench at worse
A platoon partner for Shealy if Kila can’t cut it. Otherwise, get him some ABs in a platoon at DH.
If they play him every day or at the expense of younger guys with similar talent, maybe not the best move. But I think Jacobs would be a great platoon guy.
by mraver on Oct 30, 2008 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Since the Royals have too many 1B
Can anyone think of an acceptable Yankees-Royals deal for one of them?
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on Oct 30, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't see the Yanks being interested in any of them
They’re probably going to want someone more proven than Shealy, Butler or Kila.
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by RoyalsRetro on Oct 30, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see something like Butler for Hughes
Two prospects whose stars have diminished a lot. Of course, if I were the Royals, I wouldn’t pull the trigger on that deal, but that’s just me.
Maybe a lesser pitching prospect like Horne for Kila, with Jacobs manning first, Butler as the DH and Shealy as a bench bat.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're discussing Butler on DRaysbay. What is the RFO current opinion of Butler? Have they soured or are they still high on him?
It doesn’t seem logical to trade and acquire all of these 1st basemen when you have Butler around. I know there is the DH, but it would seem you would want to make one of you potential center pieces part of the field, especially given how young he is.
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by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Many Royals fans
feel Butler could be on his way out.
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by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a Rays fan, I am hoping for this senario.
I think we have some available talent that we have nothing to do with, that could be of interest to the Royals. I’m just not sure what the price would be.
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Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you think would be a fair deal, that would benefit both sides?
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by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure. What are your main needs. We have a ton of starting pitching that we have no real place for.
Some high ceiling, some not.
Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel will all certainly be available this offseason. We also have Brignac, although I’m not sure they’d deal him for a DH, even one with the offensive ceiling of Butler. Let me look at your roster and I’ll put together a couple packages that I think might get something done.
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by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair Value:
I would personally start with an offer of Jeff Niemann and Edwin Jackson and go from there.
I’m not sure if that would get it done or not. That would get Bale and Bannister out of the rotation. Leaving:
Meche
Grenkie
Jackson
Hochevar
Niemann
I think Butler is going to be awesome, but if the organization has soured on him, that’s a pretty young talented starting rotation to build around. Jackson would hopefully either figure it out or get bumped down in the rotation as Hochevar and Niemann progress.
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Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson is crap
and Niemann is not particularly anything to write home about. I’d not touch that if I were the Royals.
Wade Davis for Butler seems fair to me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd probably do that trade
Maybe with a bullpen prospect thrown in, but Niemann/Jackson would be solid.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Jacobs is a really poor baseball player
He’s filler at best. Really no excuse for a rebuilding team to acquire him (regardless of what he costs) when he’s going to block their prospects.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Id say a little better than that
but not worth trading anything of value to get – especially when you have multiple in house options under team control that can give you at least 80% of his production.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Jacobs...
Is simply Ryan Howard with less power and even worse discipline.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Oct 30, 2008 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not saying very much
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 31, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget that he needs to get fielding lessons from Jeremy Giambi
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This deal is exactly bad for the Royals in terms of players swapped – they gave up a 25 year old reliever who throws gas, but doesn’t strike anyone out and doesn’t get many groundballs. He’s nothing special. The real crime here is blocking prospects with a first baseman who’s an absolute butcher defensively, can’t hit lefties, and can’t get on-base versus righties. And they’re going to pay him $1.5-2 million for the pleasure of employing him.
Just kind of a dead end move for the Royals.
by 17843 on Oct 30, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What prospects are blocked?
29 year old Ryan Shealy? Or Kila Kaaihue, a guy who wasn’t even listed in the organization’s top 30 prospects before last season’s breakout? Are these the great prospects you’re referring to?
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arguably Billy Butler
Of course, they may be using him as a full time DH, but still.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might be traded
Would shock no Royals fan.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
still young, but despite opportunities he has not really shown he can hit at the MLB level yet and he is pourous in the field so he is left to DH.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ka’aihue, the guy who posted a translated OPS of 900 between AA/AAA. Yeah, him. The guy who is most certainly a prospect now and one that’s worth playing rather than blocking him with a guy who’s going to cost them $1.5-2 million and a decent reliever.
by 17843 on Oct 30, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference between the Royals and the Marlins front offices
The Marlins used Jacobs’ decent but ultimately sub-par production while he makes league minimum while waiting for other 1b in their system to get ready for the bigs.
The Royals take on Jacobs just in time to pay him millions of dollars to be a decent but ultimately sub-par 1b that blocks their other 1b just as they’re ready to play.
by jibs on Oct 30, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Says it all
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You realize the Marlins will have another 1st baseman play there. And Gaby Hernandez is probably going to be an upgrade this season and will ultimately be an upgrade long term over Jacobs?
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by Tyler on Oct 30, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't there talk of moving Teahen back to third and pushing Gordon to 1B/Dh as well?
It’s kinda puzzling that KC would do this in that sense. That’s an awful lot of guys on the ML roster who are limited to 1B/Dh.
by mikev on Oct 30, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No, not really
Gordon will definitely stay at 3rd.
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by eazyb81 on Oct 30, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If anything
Why wouldn’t you move Teahan to 3B and Gordon to one of the OF corners?
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that'd happen first
But it’s not going to happen anyways. Gordon will start at 3B next year guaranteed.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As bad a year as Gordon had
he was above average last year. Teahen was -11 one year, and -14 the other
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont get it.
They needed more patient hitters and instead went for Jacobs – who isnt that much different than Shealy or the eight other 1B theyve had in over the last few years.
Nunez was something they very much couldnt afford to trade. The Royals can find a replacement level 1B on the cheap – and if theyre smart they can do better (Heck, Butler is better). What they cant afford to be paying for in free agency is young, power relievers. Those guys cost a s***load and theyre bad risks.
I dont hate the trade, but I dont think it was a wise organizational move…
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To illustrate
Jacobs put up 18.0 VORP this season. That’s right behind Chris Davis – who only had 317 ABs. Remember, VORP is accumulated – so the more you play the more you get a chance to accumulate. Jacobs was also behind such heralded names as Garret Anderson, Clint Barmes and Fernando Tatis. Jacobs ranked 133rd in the majors in VORP.
The fact is Jacobs didnt have a good year despite his 30+ HRs. What he did in 08 is just not impressive at all for a 1B.
Dayton Moore better have a good scouting based reason why a) Nunez isnt as good as he’s appeard to be; OR b) Jacobs is better than he’s been. Otherwise the Fish win this trade IMHO. Beinfest traded an marginal asset who is getting expensive soon that he can relatively easily and cheaply replace for a young, versatile power arm with upside… Again, the Marlins are in the same payroll boat as the Royals (worse, really, given the amount of guys reaching arb). They cant afford to go buy relievers.
Very good move for the Marlins. Slightly bad move for KC. Curious to see how it pans out.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh
Why could they not afford to trade Nunez?
With Soria, RamRam, Mahay, Tejeda, even Carlos Rosa who I see in the ‘pen next year. If there is one thing Dayton has done extremely well it’s take random pieces and put together a great bullpen. He got RamRam for basically free, Tejeda for free, Mahay on a pretty cheap 2-year deal, Soria for free, a great cheap year out of David Riske in ’07, 25 great innings out of Horacio freaking Ramirez before flipping him for a prospect, I am sure I am forgetting others as well.
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by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didnt mean it would cripple them
obviously it wont. Its just a reliever.
I meant that in terms of relative value to the Royals Nunez is a good deal more valuable than Jacobs. Especially if Nunez could start. Its much easier and cheaper to find guys like Jacobs… in fact, the Royals appear to have four or five very similar players already.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
fair enough. Nunez can’t start though, unless you WANT him to break down.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you seriously arguing that Horacio Ramirez was anything other than incredible luck?
Hitting a runner-runner flush does not mean you had a good hand.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did I say that? Or are you taking things out of context again?
Wouldn’t surprise me considering the source here. But obviously you missed the point – he’s made it look easy as hell to put together a bullpen.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either you are giving Moore credit for something you acknowledge he should get no credit for
or you are giving him credit for something that any competent baseball analyst would agree he should get no credit for.
Pick one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the fuck?
Are you really trying to beat this Horacio thing into the ground? Fine, take it out of my list. The point stands.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like
your argument is:
“They gave up a decent arm, but Dayton Moore is good at building pens so there’s nothing to worry about”
In terms of value… that doesnt fly with me.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my argument
Although I DO think it’s fair value. Considering the babip was low, I like his OBP to rebound to a respectable area next year with a higher AVG. something like .270/.325/.500.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ORLANDO!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.270/.325/.500.
All those numbers slightly exceed his career numbers (.262/.318/.498). His career high in AVG is .265.
Even if he hit your numbers (which its quite possible – Im not saying its impossible or even improbable, though I personally would take the “under” on those) he would STILL be only an .825 OPS first baseman. If he put up that OPS this year that would have made him the 15th best 1B. Meh.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What? A player slightly exceed his career numbers in the prime of his career?
UNHEARDOF!
Reliever for MLB-average 1B? Sure, fine, why not. Especially on a team with a deep ‘pen and a serious power shortage. Not giving up much, not getting much back. What’s all the commotion about?
by mraver on Oct 30, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s not an MLB average 1B. He’s below average when you factor in his defense. The commotion is that he is the type of player you can get for free every year and he is now crowding a position in KC that has younger, better, and more interesting options.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree that you can pick a schlub off of AAA and have him hit 30 HRs
If the Royals get 2008 Mike Jacobs, then yes, it was a crappy deal. If they get 2006 Mike Jacobs (AKA, “realistic BABIP Mike Jacobs”), then they did fine.
Either way, the total change to their club’s win total for next year is about half a game, tops.
by mraver on Oct 30, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2006 Mike Jacobs isn’t that good either.
As for the AAA schlub, you might not be able to get one that hits 30 HR’s, but you could easily get one that hits 20 with a better OBP and defense than Jacobs.
Either way, the total change to their club’s win total for next year is about half a game, tops.
I think this is exactly why some people are flustered with this deal. The Royals are basically breaking even, but it’s going to cost them money and a useful bullpen piece while blocking someone with potential.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can get a schlub and have him hit 30 HRs
You can give 600 plate appearances to Jack Cust, or Russell Branyon, or Josh Phelps, or Eric Hinske, or Jorge Cantu, or Dallas McPherson or any other similar retread that gets bounced around from major league benches and AAA clubs every year and have them hit a lot of homers and not do a whole lot else for you.
by jibs on Oct 30, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That list is not really impressive
Cust’s bat was slept on for a long time and Branyon can be wildy inconsistent due to his terrible discipline. Josh Phelps is not really anywhere near the first two or Jacobs. Hinske is not likely to improve from last season and was protected from LHs inflating his numbers. McPherson is an unkown quantity still and I doubt the Marlins would give him up for free if they saw anything valuable in him. Florida was lucky to get anything out of Cantu looking at his past 2 years, who seriously predicted he would return to his from from 2006.
by tdot mariner fan on Oct 30, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Russell Branyan's plate discipline is fine...
He’s walked in 12.3% of his plate appearances, which is well above league average.
It’s his contact skills which are horrendous. All 4 of his years where they have data on his contact rate would have ranked in the bottom four in baseball this season. 2 of them would have been dead last.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't meant to be impressive
It was meant to show there are crappy guys that can perform at Jacobs’ level out there.
by jibs on Oct 31, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Hinske is helpless against lefties
what does that make Jacobs?
Hinske has also practiced this “catching the ball” thing all the kids are into nowadays.
Apparently also has experience “running.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 1, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need to work on reading comprehension
and manners.
Here’s what I said:
Even if he hit your numbers (which its quite possible – Im not saying its impossible or even improbable, though I personally would take the "under" on those)
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if this has been said
But Jacobs posted a sub .300 OBP last year… that is unacceptable from a major league player.
If that does not improve by at least .30 pts then i don’t see how hes a full time player in baseball.
Leo Nunez has some skills, but im not jumping up and down about a 25.5 year old reliever who has a k/bb ratio under 2 and not a very high k/9….
I can see both teams liking what they got, but jacobs is gonna have to hit a new level, or the royals will have to platoon him vs. rightys.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on Oct 30, 2008 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Here’s how I see it:
Royals give:
A reliever that throws gas, but doesn’t strike a lot of people out and can probably be replaced easily by Dayton Moore.
Royals get:
A veteran bat that at worst serves as competition for the prospects in spring training and a bench bat, and at best an average to slightly above average first baseman.
I think both teams win this one to some degree.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 30, 2008 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Factor in that the Royals are going to have to eat a $1-1.5 million payroll increase as well.
by 17843 on Oct 30, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's how I see it
Royals give:
Four years of a 25 year old reliever that throws gas but doesn’t strike a lot of people out and can probably be replaced easily by Dayton Moore with some upside and who is underrated because he doesnt get enough credit for keeping the ball in the park.
Royals get:
A 28 year old veteran bat that at worst serves as competition for the prospects in spring training and a bench bat, and at best serves as an average to slightly above average first baseman who is entering his first arb year, will become expensive after one more year and… who in all likelihood will probably be nontendered after a disappointing ’09 or ’10 season…
by alskor on Oct 30, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You people need the hot stove to really heat up
We’re talking about a one for one swap of two basically replacement level players and everyone’s going nuts about it. We really need free agent season.
by aap212 on Oct 30, 2008 7:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You really missed the point.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I saw the point. Then I saw the huge overreaction to it.
by aap212 on Oct 30, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly, you missed the point. Everyone understands this is a minor deal that has little significance. The main issue is that it’s symptomatic of poor management. There is freely available talent that is just as good or better than Jacobs. People don’t like to see obviously dumb decisions made, even if they are minor.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 30, 2008 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
And I agree that the trade itself isn’t as significant as what it signifies. Like I said earlier, I think Jazayerli hit the nail on the head.
by aap212 on Oct 30, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Like McC having 150 comments on threads about Travis Denker.
It’s not that Travis Denker is a top prospect or that the move will cripple the franchise, it’s that just giving him away is symptomatic of idiot management.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God, I’m still pissed about that. There ended up being 2 posts with over 500 comments total.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Oct 31, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As awful as KC's power numbers were in 08
Jacobs will be an upgrade at 1B. With their record of prospect development, Shealy and Kila still have to prove they can play in the majors. If they can, then KC has a nice depth issue. Butler is a DH even at age 22. I think he’ll hit but hasn’t found a position since he was drafted. Just let the kid get 4 ABs and call it good.
KC will replace Nunez who has had injury issues in the past. Tejeda, Rosa and Ramirez can anchor the bullpen with Mahay and Bale. Soria as closer is money.
I look for KC to make another trade to pare down the logjam at 1B. Gload is obviously the odd man out but Butler would have the most value. Let’s see what happens.
by daveyork on Oct 30, 2008 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Deal Makes No Sense
If KC needed a 1B/DH – this would be a great deal because fewer innings in the field for Jacobs on an AL team wouldn’t be bad. As a matter of fact – a deal to the Yankees would have probably been a better fit for him as a Giambi replacement (in theory).
With Butler and Kila – they are just pushing these guys back down the list. If KC uses this deal as step one in moving Kila to get another area of need, then this deal will look better however if this is all they do – then it seems like a useless trade. And I am a Jacobs fan.
by slickwdb on Oct 31, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Moore
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/877336.html
This may be the Royals only big move this offseason. Moore apparently is enthralled with Jacobs’ raw power…
by GuyinNY on Nov 6, 2008 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ahhahahahahahaha
ahahahahahahahahahhhahahahaha
Im setting the over under on Moore as Royals GM: 20 months.
He’s all talk anyway. You know the next 1B/DH that becomes available he’s going to go all for… .
by alskor on Nov 6, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I find most funny is that if Jacobs hits .265/.330 with 25 HRs
people will use that to validate this trade… that misses the point completely.
by alskor on Nov 6, 2008 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How?
I’m pretty sure Jacobs was brought in to do something very similar to that. The point of the trade was to bring in pop and solidify 1st. Butler’s a butcher who can’t handle the position, and Kila (and the Royals) are best served with a little more time in AAA. How would that be anything other than a win?
by GuyinNY on Nov 6, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Butler is a butcher
but Jacobs is even worse. A lot worse. Imagine Raul Ibanez’s defense, except at first base.
Now imagine it with Jose Guillen’s bat.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most certainly wrong
You can criticize the trade all you want, but that’s just wrong. He will undoubtedly finish out the contract at the very least.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 6, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And rightfully so, BTW
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Nov 6, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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