Community Prospect List: #22
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 10:55 AM EDT
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PrintAfter 401 votes the winner is Lars Anderson with 29% of the vote. The next highest vote getter was Thomas Hanson with 25%. Yonder Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Max Ramirez & Logan Morrison will be removed from the poll as they received 2% or less. Elvis Andrus, Gordon Beckham, Brian Matusz, Carlos Santana & Carlos Triunfel will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we're not wasting a spot.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
CANDIDATES - Elvis Andrus, Gordon Beckham, Jhoulys Chacin, Thomas Hanson, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Carlos Triunfel & Angel Villalona ...
TESTERS - Yonder Alonso, Tim Beckham, Wade Davis, Freddie Freeman, Mat Gamel, Jesus Montero, Logan Morrison, Jarrod Parker, Max Ramirez, Michael Saunders, Michael Stanton & Josh Vitters
Please post more ideas for testers and we will consider them
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Mr. Thomas Hanson
again.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
+1
I have been down in Arizona since Sunday, so I have not voted or been online and I am quite surprised he is not on this list yet.
Hanson’s numbers in the AFL are ridiculous and I think he had the best BAA of all minor leaguers in 2008. He is probably at the top in some other categories (WHIP?), as well.
Nothing against MadBum, but Hanson actually has a track record and pitched in AA rather than Low-A this year. If Bumgarner is a top 5 prospect, shouldn’t Hanson already be on this list?
I'd have voted for the other one
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 30, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
tim
will be added to the next poll. sorry.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Clear reasons why Chacin > Hanson
Chacin posted FIPs of 3.28 and 3.24 in A and High-A this year, respectively.
Hanson last year posted FIPs of 3.46 and 5.13 in A and High-A.
His A+ stint in ’07 resulted in this line: 5.13 FIP, 12.3 BB, 24.6 K, 38 GB% and 10 HR allowed in 60.0 IP. (.297 BABIP)
Chacin’s A+ stint in ’08 (In the California league) resulted in this line: 3.24 FIP, 4.5 BB, 23.5 K, 60 GB%, 3 HR allowed in 66.1 IP. (.319 BABIP)
Chacin was about 5 months younger at these stops as well.
So, at the same level in a much harder league in about the same sample size at a younger age, Chacin displayed much better command, similar K%, incredibly better ground-ball tendencies, the ability to limit home runs, all while having a higher BABIP.
Hanson is a flyball pitcher, and generally should not have an unbelievably low BABIP unless an excess amount of luck was involved. In 2008, his High-A BABIP was 1.88 (incredibly low, obvious luck involved), and .262 at AA. Even his Winter league BABIP is .100, which shows that all his other statistics will not hold up. Throw in the home-run tendencies he’s shown in the past and I don’t believe he will be able to dominate the majors like he has recently in the minors.
As for Chacin, the combination of Incredible walk and groundball ratios, combined with the ability to strikeout hitters at a near 25% clip shows the makings of an ace to me.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
Oh, and I'm a Braves fan
Just my honest opinion on these 2 prospects.
(the 1.88 BABIP should be .188)
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
Problems
This analysis of Hanson’s 2007 ignores that the whole reason Hanson is in consideration this high is that he took a significant step forward in 2008.
And a pitcher with a consistently low BABIP in the minors is a good thing, not a bad thing. That usually indicates the quality of their stuff, especially when their other peripherals are strong, as Hanson’s are.
Other peripherals strong?
Hanson has 1 of 3 strong ratio (K), with a heinous GB and obvious control issues
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
Viscious cycle
One could easily point out the fact that those FIPs are only so low because of his lucky BABIPs.
Face it, .188 BABIP in A+ was obviously luck, no pitcher could possibly carry that average over a larger sample size.
3.68 FIP in AA is solid, no doubt, but at the pace Chacin is going, I’d expect him to be much better at AA, considering what he has already done in the California league.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
BABIP has no effect on FIP
Also, flyball pitchers have lower BABIPs than groundball pitchers. A .188 BABIP is unsustainable, but we should expect Hanson to have a lower BABIP than Chacin.
FIP excludes BIP
The FIP only counts SO, BB, and HR. It excludes BIP.
And it’s not always bad to be a fly ball pitcher. This is where “stuff” really comes into play. If a guy has a good enough rising 4-seam fastball, he can work up in the zone with it and still not get hit much and still not give up a lot of HR.
How good Hanson’s FB is can maybe be debated. It is certainly up a tick from last year. But he might struggle a bit with the HR ball against higher competition.
I like both of these guys. I actually voted for Chacin, but I’m not really impressed by the statistical argument.
by acerimusdux on Oct 30, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I have Chacin next. Foreign signees who weren’t bonus babies have a tendency to get underrated. Not only is Chacin better than Hanson statistically and by age, but his two best pitches also grade out higher than Hanson’s two best pitches. I think Jhoulys is clearly ahead of Hanson, and I voted for him here.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Better than Hanson's curve?
What’s Chacin got that grades out better than Hanson’s curve? From everything I hear, it’s an out pitch and he throws it consistently.
Your BABAIP analysis is wanting
First off, BABIP is a repeatable statistic. Second, fly ball pitchers, in general, have superior BABIPs to ground ball pitchers. (Bloopers for hits are less common than “seeing eye singles”, and you can’t beat out a fly ball with your legs. And it’s empirically true.)
Second, what he’s shown this year has been dominance, not luck. People can’t touch his stuff. The winter ball BABIP is an absurd statistic to quote, seeing as he’s also got a 70% GB rate for the league (OMG 1337 GB PITCHER ALERT!ONE). His walk rate is high, but I would argue that’s because he’s getting a TON of movement on his pitches, and sometimes they end up out of the zone. It’s not because he’s nibbling or pitching away from contact.
He’s a guy who’s taken a huge step forward this year, is getting rave reviews from scouts, and is projected by most to be in the majors next year. Hanson is a better prospect at this stage than Chacin, who is farther away and doesn’t have any more upside than Hanson.
BABIP is not a repeatable statistic to any significant degree
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
This is not true
There are pitchers who have, over their careers, better BABIPs than league average. They exist. It’s not a myth. They tend to be flyballers since, as I mentioned above, fly balls in play produce outs more often than ground balls. The other side of that coin is keeping the ball in the park, and if you want to argue about Hanson’s HR rates, then fine, you can do that. But ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls in play do. That’s just an empirical fact.
It is a myth
BABIP is normally distributed around a very narrow range of actual skill. Yes, there are going to be a few fluke outliers; no, those do not mean anything other than that those players were unusually lucky or unusually unlucky.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
...
Look up the ball-in-play data for fly balls vs. ground balls. More fly balls in play result in outs than ground balls in play.
OK
Let’s take a moderate ground-baller, Jon Lester, and a moderate fly-baller, Justin Verlander.
This season, each faced about 600 hitters who didn’t either walk or strike out (or get HBP, reach on catcher’s interference, etc etc) Over those 600 hitters, their ground ball rates varied by about 8%, so you’re looking at about 48 extra grounders for Lester.
The difference in BABIP between grounders and flies is about 15%. Lester’s 48 grounders will spit out about 15 hits; Verlander’s will only generate about 8. In theory that will cause their BABIP to vary by in the neighborhood of 10 points. Their actual averages against, of course, vary a lot less because some of those extra fly balls are going over the fence.
This is piddlingly minimal stuff here. BABIP is basically a constant. If you want to use .300 as a baseline for groundballers and .290 as a baseline for flyballers, fine, but it barely matters.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Problem
Looking at only 2 pitchers is not nearly enough for an accurate statical trends analysis.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 30, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not looking at only 2 pitchers except in the narrowest sense
The data on hit rates for GB and FB comes from ALL pitchers. It’s just applying that data to two fairly archetypal, similarly good pitchers with similar peripherals.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
my god, you're granting my premise!
The difference in BABIP between grounders and flies is about 15%
That’s all I’m saying, guy.
I can't believe I have to type this up again
So, I had this all written out, realized I should clarify something below, clicked over to that reply, and lost this. Great job, me/software I’m not 100% familiar with. Anyhow…
Looking at two pitchers that aren’t being discussed is silly. So let’s actually compare Hanson and Chacin’s GB rate. Hanson’s has been consistently around 40% while Chacin has been around 60% for most of his career. But how does this translate to BABIP?
Hanson’s BABIP last year in AA was .262. Combine this with a total of 70 hits less 9 homers means he had 61 hits on balls in play, and a total of about 233 balls hit in play against him. To see how his BABIP would have looked with Chacin’s GB rate, first we see how many extra GBs he’d have given up: 233*(.6-.4)=46.6, but lets round down for arguments sake: 46 extra GBs. According to the number you quoted earlier, about 15% of these would have gone for hits had they been GBs rather than FBs, so we have a total of 46*.15=7 extra hits. Now, we recalculate this BABIP: (61+7)/233=.292.
So to me, it looks like Hanson was slightly hit-lucky last year relative to a GB pitcher with a BABIP of about .300. That’s hardly anything at all. Basing an argument for Chacin’s superiority and including Hanson’s AA BABIP as a negative is just silly. If you want to bag on him for his BABIP-fueld high-A stats (where he spent like, half the time he did in AA), fine,no one is saying a 0.90 ERA is reflective of his true ability. But he’s dominated people at higher levels than Chacin, and it’s not because he was hit-lucky.
"normally distributed around a very narrow range of actual skill"
What does this even mean?
Setting aside that for a minute, let’s compare a couple things. BABIP could be “normally” distributed in a couple different ways. For example, you could take every player this season and plot their individual BABIPs….and you’re right, you’d expect to see a normal curve, with different guys distributed high, medium, low, etc. And if you did the same thign next year, a lot of guys from the tails would have redistributed to the middle.
But look at it a different way – plot BABIP for career, with each play as one data point. We’d also expect career BABIPS to be normally distributed…..with most guys in the middle, and some guys at each tail. So how would you explain the tails? Is it possible that some attributes inherently increase the chance that someone will be in that tail for their career? And what if Mr. Thomas Hanson has those attributes?
"normally distributed"
If you want to assume its got a normal distribution over ALL PITCHERS, that’s one thing and very well may be true. But when you’re talking professional prospects, you’re talking about one extreme end of the spectrum. In such a case, you’re like as not to get something truncated and skewed as normal.
True
And yet, it is what it is. And “what it is” is seemingly randomly distributed, centered around the .290-.300 range.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Triunfel...
doesn’t belong anywhere near this high. I’m a Ms fan, and I’m optimistic about him, but come on. So far he’s put up Andrus-type numbers without Andrus’s defensive ability.
Voted Carlos Santana here. He’s got a complete offensive skill set (power, patience, and contact all grade out as plus) and he can stick at catcher. There’s absolutely nothing not to like about him.
Santana...
are we sure he can stick at Catcher? And really, if his hitting continues to impress, will he be any better than Max Ramirez? Isn’t that his upside (just like Montero’s)? I don’t see how a catcher in High A who has only had one good season, and two mediocre ones, can be ranked higher than a catcher who has been hitting well for several years now and has already reached the majors (and had more HR in less at bats).
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
looks good
I messed up in my league, and drafted salome ahead of santana. I just figured Angel was closer to majors, and he did get the call-up but very few ABs. Santana seems to get better defensive respect than Salome. Angel aslo doesn’t have nearly the eye.
Santana plays great defense.
So yes, he will stick.
It’s his plate discipline and power that make him special offensively.
ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com
Santana v. Ramirez
Ramirez is a very good prospect, but I prefer Santana. He’s much more likely to stick at catcher, and his combination of plus power, plus contact ability, and plus-plus patience spell out complete hitter to me. Ramirez has consistently been above the 1/5 AB/K threshold you’d like to see from elite hitting prospects. The combination of contact rate and less defensive value (plus the likelihood that he ends up at 1B or DH) elevate Santana over him in my mind.
But the community seems to disagree, so I’ll just keep voting for him from here on out and see where he places.
I prefer Ramirez
simply because he’s hit at a higher level, and he’s hit a lot at a higher level.
Give me a player with a stellar, proven bat who has a good chance at sticking at catcher over a player with a stellar, but unproven bat who will almost certainly stick at catcher any day.
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think...
Ramirez has a good chance to stick at catcher, and there’s where we disagree. I don’t think preferring Ramirez is unreasonable (and I think the fact that he’s not on the poll is kind of absurd), but he’s had to work really hard to improve his defense from awful to below-average in the past 2 years. If you think of Ramirez as a bad defensive catcher in the majors, his upside is comparable to Santana’s. If Ramirez is a 1B/DH, Santana’s upside is higher.
I also like that Santana’s performance is as close to flawless as a hitter can get, while Ramirez’ contact rate isn’t as good.
Smoak v. Villalona
I didn’t vote for either of them, but it will be interesting to see who goes first. Smoak is more of a sure thing, but it seems like Villalona has the higher ceiling.
/voted for Chacin
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
Other
Jarrod Parker
And Triunfel has no reason even being tester let alone being on the poll.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
I would agree, but also
say that G. Beckham really has no place on the poll either and Andrus is a real stretch this high.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Andrus
19 year old who finished a full season at AA with a .300 average and ML ready defense. I would say thats a pretty good prospect. As he gets older and his body fills out he will develop some power. Not breathtaking power but with his speed (somewhere around 50 SBs this year) he will have plenty of doubles and triples.
Should start next year as a 20 year old in AAA and could see the majors before his 21st bday although I hope he doesn’t. I think that would mean something bad happened at the ML level for the Rangers
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Why such little love for Hosmer?
As a Royals fan i admit i’m a bit bias, but still, I am perplexed that Hosmer is getting such little support right now. Arguably he has as high a ceiling as Alvarez, and was seen as having the best bat comparable to Alvarez as the number 1 bat in the draft. Yet Alvarez is on the list at 13 having never played a game, and Hosmer gets no love?
Just curious about ppl’s thoughts about him.
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
+1
How is the guy taken 8 picks or so later ahead of him??? Smoak looks pretty good, but I’m not sure that he should be ahead of Hosmer. It wasn’t like Hosmer was taken where he was because of signability issues.
Many of us here...
like to see some plate appearances before giving prospects a “Top 25 in all of baseball” prospect rating.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
apparently not
alvarez is sitting at 13 without one ab. not taking away anything, but Hosmer belongs in the discussion if Smoak is getting votes.
agreed
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Difference...
there is a huge difference between a college 3B with a great bat and a high school 1B with a great bat. We’ve seen what Alvarez can do against advanced pitching, we haven’t seen what Hosmer can do against them. I mean, do we know if Hosmer even faced a single pitcher this past season who was also drafted or got a baseball scholarship to a major university?
Hosmer is all projection right now. Alvarez and Smoak are polish + projection.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
I understand
what you are saying, still I think Hosmer certainly played against advanced pitching in all the pre-draft tournaments, many of whom were drafted so I think that answers that question. I presume his ceiling is what got him drafted 3rd overall. If it’s polish that is the deciding factor then I guess that’s what it is.
Again, I’m not questioning Smoak and Alvarez’s talent, I agree they are great bats, I just think Hosmer should also be getting the same praise. Oh, and don’t forget he was 4-11 with 2 doubles and 3bb/2k’s in his 3 low-A games!
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Hosmer & Alonso > Smoak
In my opinion.
If your talking about those two, you can’t leave Alonso out of the discussion.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Smoak
Smoak was a college draftee who slipped to #11 mainly due to signability reasons. And a couple teams having brain cramps it looks like. He could be in the majors by next September and has evoked comparisons to Mark Teixeira and Chipper Jones. Check out what hes doing in the AFL. he deserves to be a top 20 prospect.
I have a hard time putting HS positional players real high because no matter how many all star events they play or summer leagues they play they haven’t faced competition like they will even in the lowest of the minors. Hosmers a top 40 guy IMO based on potential alone but to argue that he should be ahead of Smoak simply due to draft position I think is a bad argument
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
What happenned to 'Other '?
The ‘Other’ choice is gone now, so I voted for Smoak. But I wanted to vote ‘Other’ and indicate Stanton. Very surprising that he isnt getting more support.
Read the opening of the post:
“After 401 votes the winner is Lars Anderson with 29% of the vote. The next highest vote getter was Thomas Hanson with 25. Yonder Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Max Ramirez & Logan Morrison will be removed from the poll as they received 2 or less. Elvis Andrus, Gordon Beckham, Brian Matusz, Carlos Santana & Carlos Triunfel will be added to the poll. If you wish to vote other just list the person below. This way we’re not wasting a spot.”
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 30, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
smoak stuffing now?
That was a very quick leap up the ladder.
ya
30-40 some odd votes in less than 15-20 mins!? geez
by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 30, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely
Smoak just got about 50 votes in 15 minutes. he trailed hanson 105 to 60 at slot 21, now he is beating him 94 to 48 in slot 22 (after trailing him about 15 minutes ago)?
Not that it really matters, but it would be nice to see what the community thinks, and not just a few jerks who like to vote multiple times.
maybe the stuffer wants to trade him in his league and say “hey look, he’s # 22 in the communuity poll.”
wtf?
no way the smoak votes are coincidence. i guess hanson is doomed to stay a bridesmaid.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
i was agreeing w/ you
but i can see where you could have taken it the wrong way.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
This vote needs to be invalidated like the Anderson ballot
Award it to Hanson; he was winning before the stuffing started.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Hmmm...
That was my first thought as well, but if you were trying to ensure Smoak didn’t win – you can stuff the ballot and disqualify him on purpose no?
I'm assuming the person doing this is a moron who isn't that clever...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You would think...
but with that answer I’m guessing you didn’t start reading this site until after the sock puppet fiasco of last year? You’d be surprised how conniving some of these pricks are…
after Smoak and Hanson
I strongly expect Smoak and Hanson to be the next two. After those two are cleared out I think the general perception is that we drop a tier, and that a lot of guys who to this point have gotten little or no support will start for the first time to be seriously considered.
my mistake
tim should have been the one listed. actually, i was goint to take triunfel off and put tim on but i got sidetracked.
long story short, he’ll be on the next poll with maxram
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Oct 30, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
It may be a little early
But I have to admit that I am intrigued to see how he would do as a tester.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 30, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 Elvis Andrus
i saw this guy play a couple of times this year when he was at Frisco he’s the real deal love his speed almost like Jose Reyes just a little better defensively
-1
Unfortunately, he also has to pick up a bat a few times each game. In those situations, I haven’t seen anything suggesting he’ll be much help to a major league team anytime soon.
A little harsh
To be fair, I’m not saying he won’t have any major league value, but I think his upside is pretty limited, and the questions about his bat mean he shouldn’t be anywhere near the top-25, especially when Alcides Escobar hasn’t made it on yet.
What's wrong with his bat?
A 290+ batting average and a 350 OBP with 50 steals from a lead-off hitter is solid. And that he did that as a 19 year old in AA makes it more impressive. If Tillman gets all the credit for putting up decent numbers in AA, shouldn’t Andrus?
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
i guess
the real question with andrus is can he hit .290 at the big league level with the inadequate secondary skills he has right now?
This in a way it tied to the OPS generation
yes OPS is a great stat, but it hurts speed guys with ability to help in the runs created department because of their lack of power.
No big deal, just people undervalue MINF and CF by just using OPS as a gauge.
well
SB’s have a limited impact on RS, especially compared to OPS.
if you are looking at 2 players with identical or close OPS’s, using SB’s wouldnt be terrible to cast a deciding vote.
the old adage is that you cant steal 1st base, so being short on those secondary skills limits your ability on the bases
OPS v. OBP
While love OPS as a stat, in certain situations it doesnt tell the whole story of a players value. Especially when that player is a leadoff type with a solid OBP. Andrus may not be able to steal 1st base, but he still got there 35% and considering his ARL that is not to shabby.
Quiz: How many runs did Andrus create with steals in AA this year?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
A:
Not that many when you factor in his pedestrian (for an AA speedster) 77% success rate. His speed is a net positive, but we’re not talking generational game-changing speed here.
And again, Escobar’s a better baserunner.
Correct; the answer is in the neighborhood of 2 runs
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
His performance is misleading.
Andrus’ contact rate doesn’t sustain a .290 batting average. His walk rate is below average, his K rate is below average, and he’s got virtually no power. His statline from 2008 is helped by a .358 BABIP, which I don’t see translating to higher levels with his contact rate.
More importantly, if we’re deciding someone with Andrus’ profile belongs this high, I’d take Alcides Escobar over him 100 times out of 100. More power in a tougher league, better contact rate, slightly worse walk rate, better baserunner, and better defense = better prospect. The only thing Andrus has on Escobar is age, which can actually be a negative for a guy whose main calling cards are defense and speed. Defensive/baserunning peaks happen a lot earlier than offensive peaks as players fill out and trade agility and quickness for strength.
Andrus' BABIP
I believe he will be able tosustain it more than you think, mostly because of his great speed. I also like Escobar alot and think both guys should have been in the TOP 20, but Escoba’s defense is not as good as Andrus’. Also, didnt Escobar have a artificially high BABIP this year.
Slap hitters with good speed do not sustain especially high BABIP
I don’t know where this canard came from, but it’s questionably true at best. Power is a better predictor of high BABIP than speed is.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Hanson and Morrison
Hanson and Morrison’s coming out parties continue in the AFL.
Hanson throws another 5 SO innings with 5k’s.
Morrison hits for the cycle and drives in 5 today.
Still they await placement on this list.
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