Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2009

by John Sickels on Oct 28, 2008 5:10 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

Richie Ashburn had tools AND skills

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B: High ceiling, made progress this year, still erratic. Maybe a B+?

2) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B: Made huge progress refining his tools. Want to see Double-A numbers.

3) Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade B: Good defensive catcher with rapidly improving bat.
4) Jason Donald, SS, Grade B-: Still doubt he has the range for shortstop. But I like the bat a lot. Borderline Grade B?

5) J.A. Happ, LHP, Grade B-: Made big progress in second try in Triple-A. Still see him as Mark Redman type.

6) Dominic Brown, OF, Grade B-: Tools guy with developing skills, improved discipline.
7) Zach Collier, OF, Grade B-: Grade is speculative, but I like his ceiling a lot. Will need time.
8) Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-: High grade for a rookie ball pitcher, but I like him.

9) Joe Savery, LHP, Grade C+: I held onto him as a Grade B for too long this year, components don’t support it.

10) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+: Good plate discipline and defense, but batting average at Reading could be flukey.

11) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank much higher if command is back after Tommy John. Will know more by mid-season 2009. Performance has not matched hype but still young.

12) Greg Golson, OF, Grade C+: Most people will think this ranking is too low, but I still have serious doubts about his bat. Has made some progress but discipline remains dreadful.

13) Drew Naylor, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper Australian pitcher should be tracked.

14) Mike Stutes, RHP, Grade C+: Much better as a pro than he was at Oregon State.

15) Vance Worley, RHP, Grade C+: Very impressive pro debut.

16) Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Grade C+: I’ve overrated him in the past, but still see potential here.

17) Anthony Gose, OF, Grade C+: Willing to be a little patient here due to tools, but high risk.

18) Chance Chapman, RHP, Grade C: Old for the level, but good numbers this year and I saw him in college, has a nice slider.

19) Anthony Hewitt, OF, Grade C: Quite frankly, Anthony Hewitt sucks as a baseball player right now. I will cut him some slack due to his tools and youth, but I am very skeptical about his bat.

20) Jeremy Slayden, OF, Grade C: The exact opposite of Hewitt, Slayden has mediocre tools but good baseball skills. Main problem is age-relative-to-league.

Others in the book are Quintin Berry, Andrew Carpenter, Sergio Escalona (an interesting LOOGY type), Freddy Galvis, Edgar Garcia, Harold Garcia, Brad Harman, Jason Jaramillo, Travis Mattair, Trevor May, B.J. Rosenberg, Julian Sampson, Mike Schwimer, Colby Shreve, and Sebastian Valle.

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

The Phillies are very tools-oriented when it comes to position players. I can understand it, but sometimes I think it gets excessive. Drafting Collier AND Gose AND Hewitt is putting an awful lot of chips on one class of player. Personally I prefer a broader approach, mixing tools guys with more polished players too. I have a lot of skepticism about Hewitt at this point.

On the other hand, I like the pitching they picked up this year, and they aren’t afraid to take chances on guys like Drabek and Shreve that other teams might shy away from. They’ve shown guts when drafting.

Reports on these players and over 1,000 more can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, available for Pre-Order at JohnSickels.net. The book ships January 31st, 2009.

Next up will be the Tampa Bay Rays, followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Comments

brown and donald should be graded higher

there’s a chance, maybe it’s only 20%, but still, a chance that donald sticks at SS. if you think his bat will play, his grade has to reflect his upside, doesn’t it?

and brown is a tremendous athlete with at least one refined skill, his plate discipline. he’s a lithe 6’5", and when he fills out, he could be a perennial 30 HR threat.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 28, 2008 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also, there was a 37th round pick, whose name escapes me

that i think would be a much more interesting profile than harold garcia. a 22 year old in rookie ball.

he’s a texan with a hell of an arm, who signed for 6 figures at the deadline. if knapp and may make it into the book, i think JARRED COSART, that’s his name, deserves a writeup as someone that could make a big impact down the road.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 28, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm about as big of a Brown supporter as you can be...

…at least among non-Philly fans. However, I think until we see increased in-game power, B- is a proper grade for him.

by jibs on Oct 28, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do Brown and Taylor start in AA next year?

Do you think Knapp starts in SS-A Williamsport. I will check these players out and give some detailed reports.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 28, 2008 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

does anyone actually think

there is ANY GM out there who would trade Hewitt for Stutes?

by nms on Oct 28, 2008 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marson at 10

I think I’d swap him for D’Arnaud

Touch em all Joe...

by FisherCat on Oct 28, 2008 7:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

Drew Carpenter should probably still be mentioned in somewhere.

Touch em all Joe...

by FisherCat on Oct 28, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have d’Arnaud at #4 in my Phillies top prospects, so I don’t think John is overrating him. But I do think that Marson is being underrated here. Even if the .314 BA was fueled in part by a .389 BABIP, the 66:69 BB:K (and the resulting .430 OBP) — from a 22 year-old catcher in Double-A — makes him the top prospect in the Phillies system, in my opinion.

I also think Edgar Garcia is a bit underrated here — yes, he struggled in 11 Double-A starts toward the end of the year, but he’s still just 20 years old. On the other hand, props for the Zach Collier pick; I think the plate discipline is for real, and I’m predicting he really breaks out at Single-A Lakewood next year.

by PhillyFriar on Oct 28, 2008 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

a 22yo double A catcher posting a 289 BABIP is a GOOD… THING.

I don’t know how people continuously fail to get this

by nms on Oct 28, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

Not always, but it usually means he was lucky and therefore will not be as good next year.

Of course, there are always the exceptions where a guy can keep up an almost .400 BABIP throughout his career, but they are not the rule.

by supermets on Oct 28, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes really

it is an Occam’s razor kind of thing… is it more likely that a guy gets really lucky, or is a good hitter.

I’m not saying Marson, or anyone, will put up a .400 BABIP next year… it isn’t about that.

BABIP is a repeatable skill for hitters so a guy that just had a 389 BABIP in AA is alot more likely to have a true talent level that will allow him to keep hitting for good contact in future years than a guy with a lower BABIP.

It is really simple stuff

by nms on Oct 28, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's never had a BABIP this high before

Granted his 2007 BABIP was relatively high at .346 as well, but a 40+ point jump? The .389 figure also doesn’t correspond to his LD rate if you use the traditional baselines.

I concur with you that BABIP can be consistently high for certain players, but they usually have a high LD rate and speed. I doubt Marson has a plus speed tool, so I’m not sure we can count on him repeating this.

by jibs on Oct 29, 2008 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and may never again

i don’t see it being “really simple stuff” at all nor does occam’s razor really apply

because BABIP is NOT a repeatable skill…granted it CAN be for a handful of players, but for the most part its not and to assume it is in order to limit the variability is just wrong…really its just a function of luck and for a player who has never put up such high ratios before and then did once randomly, i’d say its pretty clear that its more on the luck side than the repeatable side

this isn’t to say that i don’t like marson because i do and yes it was a good thing that he put up a .389 BABIP. but it is also an indicator of falsely high potential which for phillies fans can be construed as a bad thing in terms of trying to gauge his future. just like if he batted .300 with a .200 BABIP; ultimately it was a bad thing because it hurt his overall #’s but it means great things for people projecting his future.

by robcast23 on Oct 29, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is very repeatable.

The year to year correlation for BABIP-BA is around .6.
Batting average alone has a much lower correlation.

Nothing is going to be perfectly correlated year to year. But BABIP is one of the stronger indicators you will find (especially if you separate out the variation in batting average contained in it, as that is a much weaker indicator).

by acerimusdux on Oct 30, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marson

I agree, I think he’s got to be a B- prospect. C+ is way too low for a catcher who profiles as an everyday player.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 28, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marson

I see no evidence that Marson will have enough power to be a good regular catcher.

by John Sickels on Oct 28, 2008 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marson

I think Marson will do enough with the bat that his lack of power will be acceptable. Kurt Suzuki is certainly a 5 catcher, and he hit only 7HRs this year with 530 ABs. As long as Marson keeps up his plate discipline, and maintains his average around .280, things I think he will do, he translates into viable major league catcher.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 29, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Suzuki

I’m not sure how Marson compares to Suzuki with the glove, but when I read John’s power comment Suzuki immediately came to mind. I am sure a lot of teams would love to have Suzuki despite his relative lack of power.

by DeJay on Oct 29, 2008 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is catcher really a power position?

I know there are and have been a few power hitters to play catcher, but for the most part starting catchers are weak hitters, both overall and in terms of power.

Besides, the reports I’ve read from people who have seen him play indicate a lot of room for improvement in slugging. I don’t know if anyone tracks this stuff for minor leaguers so I can’t back it up with numbers, but from what I’ve heard he’s a line drive spray hitter now, which at a young age I think usually indicates power potential.

I really think Marson is way underrated at #10.

by phatj on Oct 29, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus

factor in a few citizen bank “home runs” and suddenly hes probably looking at 8-10 a year, which is fine as long as you’re not relying on him as a run producer.

by robcast23 on Oct 29, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a fair criticism based on Marson’s track record, though I’ve read that a catcher’s power stroke is often the last thing to come around — probably because with the defensive responsibilities, there’s a longer development track at this position. Joe Mauer’s power still hasn’t come around yet and this doesn’t stop him from being an All-Star caliber catcher.

Now I’m by no means comparing Marson to Mauer, but how’s this for another comp: a younger Jason Kendall. Kendall slugged only .398 in the minors and has never hit more than 14 HRs in any one season, but his OBP ability made him valuable because he was capable of hitting 2nd in a good lineup.

There aren’t too many catching prospects I’d take over Marson at this point. Wieters and Posey, obviously, but as for the rest of them, you can make the argument that they either won’t stick at the position (e.g. Sandoval, Conger), or that Marson has done more at a higher level (e.g. Flowers, Santana).

by PhillyFriar on Oct 29, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yadier Molina?

by joegonzo on Oct 28, 2008 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Has an amazing glove

That’s where most of his value comes from.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 29, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

former philly prospects

if they remained in the system where would they have ranked and a grade…

Cardenas maybe borderline B+?
Outman C+/B-?
Spencer- C+?

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 29, 2008 1:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

spencer: C, outman: C+

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 29, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cardenas

No way he is a B+ prospect

by Birdfan01 on Oct 29, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dominic Brown

Look at this list in the next three yrs and Ill bet this player will be sitting at the top all by himself!! Just let it play out.

by Slamdog on Oct 29, 2008 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

i said on here 2 years ago it was a mistake moving him off the mound, but i will soon be eating crow.

i agree: these toolsie players never seem to have any plate discipline and thats what always holds them back. Reggie Abercrombie, Reggie Taylor, Michael Coleman, etc, etc, etc, forever…. Brown already has that down and he already has shown to be capable of hitting for average. I really don’t have any doubts that the power will come. He’s 6’5", 210 pounds with easy room to fill in 30 more lbs. Once he does that I don’t see any reason for him not to be a steady 280/370/450 type with 25 homers and 25 steals annually.

by ScottAZ on Oct 29, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

although i don’t think it will take him 3 years.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 29, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

some opinions from a phillies message board:

FTN wrote:
Sickels is a joke. Marson a C+?

Ok John.
steagles wrote:
i actually agreed with that grade. marson just doesn’t have the upside to warrant a grade higher than B-. really, he’s never gonna hit 15 HRs in a season, and a slugging % above .420 looks out of reach at this point. he doesn’t have a frame that suggests he’ll develop power down the road, and without that aspect, i don’t see how he can warrant a higher grade.

i do not agree that his was a BABIP inspired fluke. i think he’s going to be able to hit for average, and i think he’s gonna be able to draw walks at a slightly better than league average rate.

that’s a nice player, but really, it’s not a given that marson will have a successful career, and when that risk is combined with his limited upside, it’s reasonable to think he isn’t better than a B- prospect.

Bakestar wrote:
Even if it’s a young catcher doing those things, and he plays good defense as well?

steagles wrote
sickels thinks his batting average is a BABIP driven fluke. i do not agree with this, but when he takes that into account with the minimal power, both displayed and projected, it means the guy is a C+ prospect.

as for the positional scarcity argument, there are two things that drag marson down. 1) sickels has been hurt in the past by something he calls young catcher stagnation syndrome, where lots of promising young catchers just fall off a cliff and become AAAA fodder. jason jarimillo would seem to be a case of this, and so too would carlos ruiz, though he’s made it a lot further than most others. and 2) there;s a hell of a lot of catching talent in the minors. i have the top tiers looking something like this:

matt wieters
*
buster posey
pablo sandoval
max ramirez
*
jp arencibia
tyler flowers
john lucroy
carlos santana
angel salome
*
taylor teagarden
lou marson
kyle skipworth
bryan anderson

i’m sure some of the guys ahead of marson will either be moved off the position or completely fall apart, but there isn’t a great argument in favor of marson, relative to most of the players i have ahead of him.

and i continued in the next post:
it should also be noted, that in the 3 lists sickels has put out, he’s graded 3 catchers better than marson.

wilson ramos, who marson is probably better than got a B
travis d’arnaud: who has yet to even play in full season ball, got a B
tyler flowers: a hell of a hitter, who’s size may move him off the position, got a B.

of the three, i think only flowers is appreciably better than marson, but i think that is more of an argument agaisnt ramos and d’arnaud than in favor of marson.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 29, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs