Josh Thole

by Duece on Oct 21, 2008 10:32 PM EDT Comment 27 comments

After switching back and forth between 1B/C the Mets finally gave Thole a chance to play everyday as a catcher in the FSL.

Thole posted high OBP's early in his career, but this year was able to get his average up to .300.

His line for the year was .300/.382/.427 as a 21 year old, and though he only hit 5 HR he had 25 2B's. Thole doesn't strike out and had more BB's than K's (45:38).

Interestingly, Thole hits lefties (and always has) much better than righties.

EDIT: I know he sucks defensively, but with this being only his first full season catching he should get better.

His numbers are pretty similar to Lou Marson who's considered a pretty good hitting catcher, so I'm beginning to wonder if Thole is close to being an above average catching prospect. He's no Wieters, but he's not to shabby.

Grade C? Thoughts?

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FSL at age 21?

Nothing special..I mean is he was 19 and put up these stats then I’d really like him, but he’s not..

by schmosterballs92 on Oct 21, 2008 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For a catcher?

Pretty solid, if unspectacular. Definitely a sleeper-type.

by Fanon on Oct 22, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not like he was in low A. He was in A+ St. Lucie. Assuming he does the standard move up a level every season, that’s 22 in AA, 23 in AAA, 24 in the majors. That’s not horrible. I definitely think he’s a sleeper prospect (although he really needs to prove his hitting at AA plus needs to show that he can catch on a regular basis. That bat doesn’t play well at 1st base.)

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 22, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marson or thole?

because they were both 21 in the FSL…and since marson is just about universally praised i’m thinking we’ve got to give thole at least a little credit, at least until we know if he can stick behind the plate…especially if you match up thole’s season with marson’s last year in the FSL: VERY similar except thole was slightly better across the board, better k/bb, higher OBP, higher BA, higher SLG

and the age isn’t an issue for either of them because catchers take longer to develop…i know nobody around here is impressed unless you’re the next joe mauer or matt wieters but the reality is that both these guys are on a very reasonable timetable to reach the majors and be productive…oh and by the way a couple guys named martin and mauer both played in A+ during their age 21 season so you might want to reevaluate that…

by robcast23 on Oct 22, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marson got no love until he hit .330 in AA

he won league championships as the starting C in both 2006 and 2007, but he wasn’t really an interesting prospect until he started hitting in AA.

marson has elite contact skils and elite plate discipline. the same cannot be said about thole

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 22, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

First of all, he didn’t hit .330. He hit .314. Secondly, who gives a crap about league championships in A+ ball? Thirdly, Thole made more contact in A+ than Marson did.

Thole, A+: 347 AB, 45 walks, 38 strike outs
Marson, A+: 322 AB, 68 walks, 70 strike outs

Thole had better contact skills, Marson better on base skills.

The point is, it’s not out of line at all to compare Thole to Marson. They seem like very similar players.

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 22, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

firstly, it is kind of significant for a catcher to start for two straight league championship teams. that speaks to his ability to handle a staff and also his fundamentals behind the plate.

secondly, marson was a C+ prospect, coming off of his A+ performance.

thirdly, i referenced him hitting .330 because he was, but it was back midseason, at the time that he was starting to emerge on the prospect radar. he came down off that clip towards the end of the year, though.

thule put up a .300/.381/.427 line in A+, while marson put up a .314/.433/.416 one in AA.

it’s possible that they are similar players. it’s possible that thule will be a better player than marson. i’m not trying to defend marson, i’m not even really a believer in him, but there’s a huge difference between those two lines by those two players, at those two levels.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 22, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You’re missing the point. We’re suggesting that Thole could be on a similar track record to Marson. No, Thole has not hit .300+ in AA but he has done as well or better as Marson did at the same age in A+.

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 22, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for the record

its not as well, its better. i already mentioned that thole’s age 21 FSL line topped marson’s in nearly every aspect offensively.

what we don’t know is thole’s catching ability but as far as the stats, thole is at nearly the same point as marson was going into 2008.

by robcast23 on Oct 22, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marson...

first off, I always take FSL numbers with a little grain of salt since it’s not a hitter-friendly league. But, I think Marson has drawn so much more praise because I have never seen anyone doubt his ability to stick at catcher. I’m not sure how good his actual defense is, but I am guessing it is no worse than league average. That right there makes him a good prospect (although, like Variables, I am not sold on him. He and I have discussed Marson before in our Sim League since we both passed on him in the draft this past year and took Lucroy and Flowers instead). If Tholes can at least become an average defensive catcher, and continues to hit like he did this past year, then I think you’ll see a significant rise in his stock. Judging by his batting line, it will be his glove and not his bat that will make the difference between him flaming out or reaching the majors.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Oct 22, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait and See

Was a good year for the kid. If he puts up the same numbers next year at a higher level, we can start talking about it. Oh, and better defense. I guess thats why he’s in the AFL.

by thudean on Oct 22, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weird Split

Away, his line drive % is 23. At home, it’s only 5.

Just statistical noise? Is there something bizarre about his home stadium that’s changing his approach?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Oct 22, 2008 3:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Minor league LD rates are highly idiosyncratic and cannot be relied upon for any analytic purposes

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Especially considering

his other stats home/away are pretty close (.286/.374/.429 at home and .313./.386/.425 away), it doesn’t seem like he’s really hitting that differently in the different parks.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 23, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never saw him as interesting

but I’ll try and think about it now.

Pros:
He’s got plus contact ability, as indicated in LD% and BA.
Great discipline at the plate indicates that he could be a serviceable backup if his tools don’t fill out.
The fact that he hits lefties well indicates IMO that he has potential to hit for some real high average.

Cons:
No visible power means that he might rely on BA little too much
New to position, potential injuries
A butcher at his postion, regardless to his newness this is an obvious negative

Overall:

I think Thole deserves a C. He’s not very toolsy, he probably wouldn’t make it to the bigs at 1B, and all the success he’s had is at A+, so he’s really unpredictable. However he has a ceiling of a Derek Jeter with less pop and speed type of thing (you know, like a .280-.320 average on any given year, .350-.410 OBP on any given year, butcher at defense). He’s really unpredictable at this point and really I don’t see him as doing anything better than a backup catcher.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 22, 2008 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jeter? Really?

by Fanon on Oct 22, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

First off, I mentioned that he wouldn’t have that much pop or speed. Jeter’s a .845 career OPSer (.316/.387/.458). Honestly I think that at his absolute ceiling he could hit .315/.385/.420. So Jeter with less pop and speed could be his ceiling, yes.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 22, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think you're throwing the jeter comp out there too freely...

jeter is likely going to be a hall of famer, and you just compared a prospect i have never heard of until 5 minutes ago to him. something just doesn’t seem right there.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Oct 23, 2008 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Calm down. He did say “ceiling”. How many outfielders out there have a “Carlos Beltran” ceiling? Is it even remotely likely, no.

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 23, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a comparison really

A better comp would be Doug Mirabelli…

But while we’re on the subject, HoF and MVP mean nothing to me. I like statistics better, and if you want to argue my 100% ceiling comp use stats, please.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 23, 2008 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Jeter's career OPS is .845

and Thole’s career year OPS would be .805, then doesn’t that make Jeter a hell of a lot better than Thole? Over a 14 year career, Jeter has had only 4 seasons that were worse than .805, which means that Jeter is regularly better than what you think Thole’s career performance is. I mean, I guess I could see your saying that he’d be a homeless man’s Derek Jeter though

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 23, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What part of

“with less power” do you not get?

.315/.385/.420 vs. .316/.387/.458

The only real difference is less power.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 23, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're confusing a career year OPS with career OPS

If Player A’s career year’s OPS is worse or even equal to Player B’s career OPS then Player B is significantly better. That’s all I’m saying.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 24, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean the guy on the Yankees? Derek Jeter?

He has a .320 career average. He’s a first ballot hall of famer, and will be one of the quickest to 3000 hits. Thta’s not a C prospect. That’s an A+.

by schmosterballs92 on Oct 23, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People have conveniently forgotten what the word “ceiling” means.

by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 23, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Realism

Well, there’s a difference between “ceiling” and “realistic ceiling” that I think is being missed here. Usually when you cite a guy’s ceiling, particularly for a fringy, defensively challenged prospect, you don’t pick the most extreme, out of this world best case scenario.

by Fanon on Oct 23, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

when I said ceiling, I meant at his absolute upside.

Also, people here have to distance themselves from names. Honestly, if I said that he could hit for a high career average and OBP (.315/.380, perhaps?) there would be a whole lot less astonishment.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 23, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs