Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2009

by John Sickels on Oct 19, 2008 4:12 PM EDT Comment 42 comments

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Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B+: Picking between Revere and Hicks is tough, but I went with the guy with the bigger track record. Kenny Lofton possibilities here.
2) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+. Could flip with Revere due to higher power ceiling.
3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
4) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Grade B: Some worries about his command.
5) Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade B-: Might have strike zone problems.
6) Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade B-: Terrific arm, erratic, has command and personality issues.
7) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B-: Exact opposite of Mijares, okay stuff but with strong command and makeup.
8) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade B-: Not going to bet against this guy after the Twins proved to be right about Revere.
9) Rob Delaney, RHP, Grade B-: Is this too high? Should he be a C+?
10) Chris Parmalee, OF, Grade C+: Got hurt, low batting average, but still young, lots of power and walks.
11) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, power, but plate discipline a big problem.
12) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: High ERA masks strong K/IP ratio, looks interesting to me.
13) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for arm problems.
14) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Good solid relief arm.
15) Luke Hughes, 3B, Grade C+: Worried about the strike zone with this one. 16) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade C+: Check out the component marks in Triple-A; they are more important than the pretty ERA.
17) Steven Tolleson, INF, Grade C+: Intriguing player, could rank higher depending on what you want to emphasize.
18) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C+: Could have been victim of bad luck in Double-A, as K/IP and K/BB remained steady.
19) Jason Pridie, OF, Grade C+: Interesting mix of strengths and weaknesses, still seem him as a fourth outfielder.
20) Charles Nolte, RHP, Grade C+: Favorite of ground ball fetishists.
21) Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper from the 2008 draft.

Others included are Joe Benson, Alex Burnett, Blair Erickson, Deolis Guerra, B.J. Hermsen, Phil Humber, Tyler Ladendorf, Erik Lis, Matt Macri, Dustin Martin, Mike McCardell, Danny Ortiz, Dan Osterbrock, Trevor Plouffe, Alexander Soto, Loek Van Mil, Zach Ward, and David Winfree.

Do not stress out about the exact position of the Grade C+ guys. My main question is in the transition between B- and C+. right at the cusp between 9 and 10 on this list. Would like your opinions about that.

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The Twins have mixed in more hitting the last couple of drafts, and both Revere and Hicks look terrific right now. Pitching remains a strength nevertheless, particularly in possible relief arms. I took a lot of flak about Tyler Robertson last year, but he was doing pretty well in the Florida State League before he got hurt. I don’t subscribe to TINSTAAPP….there obviously ARE such things as good pitching prospects, but the attrition rates are always high, and that must always be kept in mind. Overall, this is a good farm system, showing the ability to recharge quickly when things run dry.

Reports on all these players and over 1,000 others are in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order!

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Comments

I still just don't like Ben Revere that much

I still feel like, if EVERYTHING breaks right for him, his peak upside is peak Juan Pierre. Sure, it’s valuable, but considering he’s likely to not reach his absolute peak upside, I don’t know how much value he’ll actually have. I mean, if he doesn’t get that far, then what is he – Reggie Willits maybe? I just don’t see a guy with that kind of likely outcome being a B+ prospect, even if he had a monster year in the minors. Seems almost like the hitting analog to Yusmeiro Petit.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 19, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel the same way I

float his names in trades quite a bit this offseason to see if he has value.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 19, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Revere is a good prospect

I understand the Juan Pierre comparison, but i think its not fully true.

Pierre at age 20 (not coutning HBP),walked 19 times 283 PA (6.7) then 38 in 623 (6.1), and then 33 in 489 (6.7).
Revere at age 19 walked 13 times in 204 PAs (6.4), but this year he improved to 7.4%, 27 in 367. So their age 20 seasons so Revere walk rate was close to a full point higher then Pierres.

If he can continue to improve that… then he will have enough OBP without all the extra hits, etc.

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by jbluestone on Oct 19, 2008 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see your point

but you’re betting that that 1 percent increase being real, rather than statistical noise – I’m less convinced

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by OldProspects on Oct 20, 2008 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm of the mind that

if you don’t have a lot of power, there’s a ceiling to how much you can improve your IsoD, simply because pitchers will be a lot more inclined to challenge you in the zone.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 20, 2008 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

Baseball America had something about him dropping 400-450 bombs in instructs, so there is still a lot of hope for untapped power. That was never said with Pierre.

If he has the power to hit 10 bombs, .300 ave, and improves his ob skills gradually as he moves up- and whalah- you get a Kenny Lofton clone

by ScottAZ on Oct 20, 2008 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Has Deolis Guerra fallen that far?

Or mistakenly omitted?

by Philsfan in Carolina on Oct 19, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My fault, just saw him in the "others" portion.

by Philsfan in Carolina on Oct 19, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

even so...

that’s quite a drop. I don’t agree with him falling that far.

by slurve on Oct 19, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerra

at this point he is the pitching equivalent of Joe Benson. His velocity is down, and his numbers were horrid. All he has is youth.

by John Sickels on Oct 19, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be honest

I was unaware of any drop in velo. Just how bad did it drop, was there any talk that he may be injured?

by slurve on Oct 19, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerra

I have reports of him at 86-88 and not touching 90 in many starts.

by John Sickels on Oct 20, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

He’s dropped 95% in “Mets fan hype.”

HUGE dropoff. Very disappointing.

I never liked this kid and I said so often at the time of the Santana trade. I really have no faith in him. ARL only takes you so far. He had a few intriguing components in one year… but nothing that couldnt have been just noise… and it now looks more like it was just noise, IMHO.

by alskor on Oct 20, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerra's velo

I remember reading that his mechanics were a mess this year, which robbed him of any chance to get up into the 90s. As you stated, the big question is whether there’s an injury behind it all.

by jibs on Oct 20, 2008 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerra is just damaged goods

They should have added Murphy to the Santana package, they would have a starting 3rd baseman right now who can hit.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 20, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Gutierrez

Maybe you’re inferring more than the one-line blurb will allow, but was there anything to his performance in the FSL league that stood out enough to put him at a B- already?

by jibs on Oct 19, 2008 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Personally I think Angel Morales is ranked WAAAY too low.

He was almost 2 years younger than most of the hitters in that league and still led the league in homers. He was also 7th in the league in walks and had fewer ab’s than all the guys ahead of him.

The only warning sign I see is the high k rate but you could blame that on his age. If this were my list, I’d have Morales in the top 3.

by Kemp on Oct 19, 2008 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jonathan Waltenbury

The Canadian first baseman had a pretty good season in Appy league. Although his defense may be a liability, I wonder if his bat is potent enough to carry him all the way up?

by tradewind on Oct 19, 2008 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

player comments

John, nothing in particular to say about the Twins system, but I just wanted to say thanks a ton for bringing back the individual player comments on your top 20s for the blog. I’m a loyal book buyer (though I lost my 2008 edition while moving, which is killing me), but my fantasy league (main use of book aside from pleasure reading) drafts before the shipping date. It definitely helps having a slight idea of your thinking on the lesser known guys that are hard to dig up info. on as a sneak peek at the full book descriptions. Probably takes some more time, which can be tough when posting free content, but I’m sure plenty of others appreciate it as much as I do.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Oct 19, 2008 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Thanks John.

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by The Congo Hammer on Oct 19, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by cubsfan1 on Oct 23, 2008 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fun fun fun

I’d drop Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney down to a C+, I don’t like seeing reliever prospects ranked that high unless they at least have some AAA under there belt. That’s assuming you see Gutierrez as a reliever and not a starter. Personally I’d also like to see Manship and Angel Morales move into the B- range. I do understand going the conservative route, until Morales shows us something in the Midwest and Manship adapts to New Britain. I’d love to see a scouting report on Angel Morales in the book, since most info on him seems to be his stats and age.

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on Oct 19, 2008 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

morales

Quick report:
Great power potential, hammers fastballs, can’t hit breaking stuff, swings at everything.

by John Sickels on Oct 20, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool, thanks!

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on Oct 20, 2008 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anthony Swarzak

I was wondering what happened to Anthony Swarzak?

by jprotzel on Oct 20, 2008 12:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Random thoughts

I think Carlos is high as well. Certainly, the Twins have a nice track record, but a B- this early? I just don’t think there is enough, right now, to justify Gutierrez that high and feel that he is more of a middle relief/setup arm. As with all rankings, comes down to the evaluator, but for me, I’m hard pressed to give relievers B grades unless they have closer potential and have had a little track record. Only time will tell on the latter, but I’m not sold on the former yet. I just don’t see a big difference between a Carlos Gutierrez, and say, a Dumas Garcia (since I’m a Cubs fan … stick your own system guy in there that looked good in the upper levels with solid stuff), and I don’t think Garcia is a C+, let alone a B-, and I’m a Garcia fan.

I am okay with Delaney’s B-. I didn’t hear any reports on him late in the year – anyone has any updates on how he looked at the end?

Is Ramos’ bat that good to get a B right now?

by toonsterwu on Oct 20, 2008 12:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez

If I understand right the only reason he was a closer in college this year was because he had surgery in the off season and they didn’t have time to build him up to starting. I believe I’ve heard the Twins plan to make him into a starter since he has a good sinking fastball that induces tons of ground balls. This is all stuff I’ve heard at one point or another but have no real confirmation or “source” for any of it.

Any validity to that John?

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Oct 20, 2008 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aaron hicks

what is that guy’s ceiling? he might be a huge mover in the top 100s after the 09 season

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 20, 2008 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, isn't a B+ at his level pretty unusual?

He must be awesome. This means Jemile Weeks is really really awesome.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 20, 2008 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA had a Switch Hitting Grady Sizemore comp

by Bravesin07 on Oct 20, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i almost threw up when i saw that, it was so sick…i don’t care if they are talking about hyped prospect grady or current where the hell did that power come from grady either, both sick

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 21, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shooter Hunt

Dude is straight baller.

by Omar Little on Oct 20, 2008 2:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ha

a reliever named Slama?
Awesome.

by nms on Oct 20, 2008 3:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Swarzak

John, Can you further elaborate on Swarzaks component marks. Also what kind of tools does Swarzak have. Is their a ton of concern about personal make up with the supension?

Erik Lis – this guy has hit everywhere he has been, although he is not the best athlete I think he must be included, but he has been trending downward

Slama – I would like to see more of a scouting report on this guy – His numbers are awesome – I think he should be a B-

Valencia – Is he the Twins future 3rd Baseman? I know he has makeup issues as well

Matt Fox – I know he is old but, is he anywhere close to the top 120 I know he had a increase in Strikeouts this year.

Manship – I think he could be higher I have only heard great things about him from the Twins organization, I know they are very high on him

Dustin Martin – I think with his steady track record he must be in the top 20

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by Love Twins on Oct 20, 2008 7:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What makes Valencia so much higher than Hughes?

They seem pretty similar to me, except Hughes doing it at a higher level.

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by sully10x on Oct 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The fear of the known?

That said, I do think “upside wise” that Valencia has a higher ceiling.

by toonsterwu on Oct 20, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCardell?

I’d probably have put McCardel in the top 20. He’s done very well at a higher level than both Guttierez and Hunt at the moment. They may have more upside, but I probably wouldn’t put either on the list until they have another full season under their belts.

Is there something wrong with Tolleson’s glove? His bat has been pretty good and I suspect he will be screaming promotion by the middle of next year.

by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 20, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This system doesnt impress me at all this year

Every year I see the Twins and I see a bunch of diamonds in the rough.

This year? Bleh. Real down year for the system if you ask me. Its C+ city. Two unproven, low minors, super toolsy OFers, a few live arms with massive control problems, a few control artists with piss poor stuff, and a number of “hitters” without any significant power and without anything resembling plate discipline. Yuck.

Id make Shooter Hunt a B- and then I would make ALL the B- guys C+s. I really dont like Mulvey at all… and Valencia? Hughes? Those guys just dont look like they will be MLB hitters to me.

That said, there are three guys I think are underrated here. Bromberg I really like and would move up to B-. Robertson I would also move to B- despite the injury. He’s just been too dominant to ignore even with the injury. He’s a guy Im dying to see how he starts in 2009.

I also love Nolte. Those are ridiculous numbers there. Im not always a huge groundball lover, but you cant ignore that he’s only allowed ONE HR as a professional over parts of two seasons (94.2 IP). Beyond that wacky number, he’s striking out 9.27 per 9 IP. Why isnt this kid being given a chance to start? Id love to learn more about him.

by alskor on Oct 20, 2008 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What are your thoughts on Delaney and Manship?

Or were you referring to them when you said, “a few live arms with massive control problems, a few control artists with piss poor stuff”?

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by Andersklasen on Oct 20, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much

I was very high on Manship last year, but he started the year as a 23 year old in A ball (FSL), and his components werent anything great (7.21 K/9…). Once he moved to AA he gave up 13+ more hits than innings, while still only striking out 7.28/9. He walked a few too many guys (2.82 BB/9), too. He hasnt given up the longball, but his A ball performance is the sort of good-but-not-great peformance that is exactly what Id expect from a polished college pitcher who is a little old for his league. His AA showing doesnt impress at all. Im not saying its time to give up on him… but he’s very… vanilla. If he doesnt take a big step forward next season and start well… then youre looking at a 24 year old scuffling in AA. Then people would start writing him off. His margin for error is extremely thin now. Ive adjusted his ceiling down quite a bit. Its certainly possible he’s just getting by on polish and doesnt have the stuff to be a MLB success. Everything I see reads 4-5 starter now, when I saw the possibility of mid rotation starter last year.

This is a good example of what I was saying… all the guys with decent ceilings in the system had disappointing years. All the guys who performed decently have kind of crappy ceilings… or some red flag taking away from their performance… like a really high BB/9.

As for Delaney, Mijares, etc… relief prospects dont excite me unless theyre really something special. Delaney has some nasty numbers. Id say he’s one of the few guys I actually like on this list… but still, he also started the year as a 23 year old in A ball(The FSL). He kept his success upon being promoted to AA… but I mean, that’s only 34 IP. I dont doubt he’s for real, and I expect he’ll be an effective MLB reliever someday… but what is his ceiling here? Nothing to get excited about, at least for me. I see a non-closing reliever here… whoop de do. I guess I dont have a problem with him at B-, but Im really ambivalent about it.

by alskor on Oct 21, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's Parmelee

Not Parmalee. I see this everywhere, and John, I know you’re a Twins fan so I thought I’d point this out. Not trying to nitpick, just pointing it out. Thanks for the good work!

by killa on Oct 21, 2008 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wilson ramos......

ramos gets no love IMO from anybody really…i love this kid…he looks to be a good offensive catcher with plus recieving skillz..anybody else feel this way?

by cubsfan1 on Oct 23, 2008 2:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs