Off-season predictions:
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 19, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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PrintYou know you want to post your off-season predictions. So do it. now.
My prediction will be in the comments section. Feel free to comment/inquire FILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLERFILLER FILLER
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OK, not doing $$ specs
Angels Re-sign K-rod to 4 year contract
Dodgers sign CC to 7 year contract
Yankees sign Texeira to 6 year contract
Braves sign Perez to 4 year contract
Phillies sign Burnett to 4 year contract
Mets sign Lowe to 3 year contract
Angels sign Blake to 3 year contract
Phillies sign Ramirez to 4 year contract
Dodgers sign Burrell to 3 year contract
Yankees sign Pudge to 2 year contract
Reds sign Abreu to 3 year contract
Brewers sign Durham to 1 year contract
Yankees sign Pettitte to 1 year contract
Mets sign Giles to 1 year contract OR trade Nick Evans for Brian Giles
Padres trade Peavy to Yankees for Hughes, Jackson and Kennedy
Angels trade Arredondo to Mets for Delgado and Heilman
Brewers trade Weeks to Mets for Kunz
Phillies trade Kendrick to Brewers for Brad Nelson
Royals trade Greinke to Braves for Tommy Hanson, Tyler Flowers & Brent Lillibridge
Royals trade Joakim Soria to Rangers for Kasey Kiker & John Mayberry
that’s off the top of my head…
more
Cubs sign Dempster to 3 year contract
Cubs sign Wood to 2 year contract
Mets sign Baldelli to 1 year contract
Mets sign Rhodes to 1 year contract
Rangers decline Blalock
Tigers decline Renteria
Rangers sign Renteria to 2 year contract
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 19, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Soria for so little?
The Royals could do a lot better than Kiker and Mayberry for Soria if they decided to trade him.
Thought process
The Delgado deal is more realistic if the Angels keep K-rod and lose tex. They’d need a lefty power bat, and considering that this could be Lackey and Figgins’s last year, they may want to have Delgado to make a huge run for it. The Angels would need Delgado more than Arredondo in 09 if they keep K-rod.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 19, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Angels
The Angels are too smart to sign K-Rod for what he’s looking for.
They're
also too smart to let both Tex and K-rod go.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 20, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Shields for likely to be traded
Assuming the Angels re-sign KRod, it seems to me that the obvious candidate to be traded is Scott Shields. Presuming the Angels want Arredondo to set up, Shields simply wouldn’t be happy in a middle relief role, not in small part because on lots of teams he would be a perfectly adequate set up man and on at least a few would be a good candidate to close. Shields deserves that opportunity.
true...
Looking back I agree, but I can’t really find a team for Soria or a really fair package for Greinke…
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 20, 2008 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions
How about the Mets?
Even the Mets have to think twice about K-Rod. Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese are both better prospects than either Ranger you mentioned. The Mets might have to surrender more than their comfortable with, but at least it’s possible and would make some sense.
Some guesses, will add more later
Braves – Trade for Jake Peavy/Khalil Greene and add Derek Lowe to the mix.
Yankees – Sign Ben Sheets and AJ Burnett. (which CF do they trade for, though?). Hold onto Pettite.
Dodgers – Sign CC Sabathia.
Orioles – Sign Mark Teixeira.
Cubs – Resign Kerry Wood and Ryan Dempster.
Mets – Sign Manny.
I'm very interested
in the way you think. O’s getting Tex, Mets signing Manny.
Will Manny or the Mets cave first? 3 year or 5 year deal?
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 19, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Re:
I think Angelos ponies up for Teixeira.
I think the Mets make one big move, but can’t decide b/w KRod and Manny. Well, obviously leaning towards Manny. I’m thinking 4 year deal, long enough to make Manny happy, not so long for the Mets.
Bold prediction
Sabean overpays for a mediocre veteran at a position of zero need. My guess? Catcher.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Maybe Giambi?
If he can’t get a slugging 1b via trade, I could see Sabean nabbing Giambi for 2 or 3 years. Although Giambi still has some value I suppose.
Center Field
The dumbest move Sabean could make would be to invest heavily in another center fielder who can’t hit well enough to play anywhere else.
not offseason yet
really, doing these things before the free agent period begins is early….and i have a feeling there will be a ton of non-tenders this year as well that will be fairly significant pickups….
i’ll give an idea of where the two teams i follow most closely will be looking:
Braves
pitching, pitching, pitching….i’d hope the team will use some of the salary coming off the books to make a real run at peavy, CC, perez, sheets, etc….and also another solid bullpen arm…an outfield bat would be nice as well, but gregor blanco/matt diaz/brandon jones could handle left and center while prospects work their way up the line….
Twins
locking up pieces is vital….after that, making a move for left side infielder/leadoff guy would be ideal…adrian beltre could be a real trade possibility, and don’t be surprised to see the twins make a real play for raffy furcal….the team will open the pocketbooks a touch more this offseason again looking ahead to the 2010 park opening….pohlad had pledged up to a $30 million between 2007’s salary and what the park-opening squad will be allowed to pay….that’d put the team around $100 million….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
I haven't heard that about pohlad
but the key word is that it’s Up to 1MM would fall in that range too.
Really anyone who thinks the Twins payroll will (key word there will not could or should or might) pass 100MM before 2012 is very very optimistic.
1941 .406
twas a sid comment
so take it for what you will, but hartman wrote after either the morneau or mauer extension that pohlad expected to expand payroll significantly before moving into the new stadium, but that the team would still be smart about how they were spending their money (which is why you saw santana and hunter leave)….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 19, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
then you're sadly misinformed
they had one of the most open GMs in the business in Terry Ryan, who weekly would take any and virtually every call on his Friday sit-in with Chad Hartman, and Bill Smith was just the same in the time I heard him before I moved out of the twin cities…..
not trusting sid is one thing (and he’s STrib, not twins), but if the GM has said it with the twins, it’s very believable…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 19, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Fanshots
If you’re only going to pose a question, do it as a fanshot. If you want to do a fanpost, at least have the resolve to post your own predictions in the post itself so you don’t need to write FILLER a million times.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
A few
The Cubs do not blow up their line-up.
The Tigers do not trade Porcello for a closer.
The Yanks sign Teixeira
The Brewers sign CC
The Padres do trade Peavy
The Giants continue to make stupid signings of washed up players
The winner of tonights game wins the WS
A few of my own
1) Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, and Julio Franco will all remain unemployed this year, although the media will inquire about the first three of them regularly just to sell print.
2) Jake Peavy does not get traded to either NYY or BOS.
3) At least five college pitchers are drafted in June that are compared to Brad Radke or Greg Maddux.
4) Brett Favre and Manny Ramirez open a consulting business that advises how to extract incredible sums of wealth from employers who think you actually deserve nothing more than a swift kick in the ass.
5) Roger Clemens is one of the first to sign up, making both the Astros and the Yankees cringe, and the Blue Jays burn all contracts dating back to 1994.
6) Joe Biden throws out the first pitch at the Washington Nationals home opener, to immense applause from anyone who can still afford tickets.
7) The top 100 prospect rankings on the John Sickels website completes its task in early February, withstanding surprise attacks from the PP interlopers, extreme paranoia about sock puppets, and flame wars at spots 8, 14, 32, 45, 46, 47, and 68. John finally breaks down and gets technology that allows him to ban ISP accounts.
8) Bravesin07 continues to suffer the most consistent insults of anyone on this site, despite always voting cleanly, not being a sock puppet, and never joining in a flam war.
9) The Giants fire Brian Sabean
10) Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Phil Hughes, Ross Detwiler, Desmond Jennings, and Reid Brignac have bounce-back seasons. Homer Bailey does not.
11) Cameron Maybin struggles and is passed by Drew Stubbs, Colby Rasmus, Andrew McCutcheon, and Dexter Folwer in most people’s minds.
12) Both Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum miss time with nagging arm ailments, though either require surgery.
13) JD Drew and Mike Hampton both spend time on the DL. Rich Harden does not.
14) Sabermetrics comes to politics; Nate Silver virtually eliminates his time spent on baseball as he is successfully wooed by the Democratic party to be their statistical consultant. Legions of baseball fans cry, but understand.
15) Despite putting zero effort into learning the differences between the sports, Mel Kiper Jr. will continue to cover both baseball and football for ESPN and become the most loathed person in all baseball by the fans, even surpassing Joe Morgan and Bud Selig in unlikeability.
Note
Apologies to Joe Morgan – I myself like him. But I seem to be in the minority.
You're out of your mind, SiddFynch
The Giants will never fire Sabean.
no way
anyone passes morgan….
and i’m assuming you’re fairly new if you’re feeling sorry for bravesin07…..you’ll see….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 20, 2008 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions
sidd's been around a while
And he’s right… Braves is nothing like Joba or any of the sockpuppets from last year. For all of his problems, he’s always been a reasonable and relatively level-headed member of the community.
by David Tokarz on Oct 20, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
But I think there needs to be an instruction manual for newcomers. Braves doesn’t cause trouble actively, but some people don’t know to just leave it be when he lets loose one of his more… interesting… thoughts. Considering there’s currently someone with the username faggot smasher, I don’t think Braves is all that objectionable.
good point
there’s at least one other username that I find terribly insensitive.
okay
this, i will grant you….i remember his first days on TOB very clearly…but he was backhanded by either john or one of the veterans on the board at that time and told to snap to, and he’s avoided the flame war end of things ever since…
and aap’s comment is also well placed on user names….i’m surprised at some, to say the least….
basically….keep “lol” as the subject of any reply to Braves, and it will keep you from getting too serious about what he’s saying….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 20, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting you should ask
Nope, not new – lurked in 05 and 06, signed on in 2006. And am already on the record for my thoughts on B in 07:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/5/15/215842/221
I have found myself wishing we had a PM on this site in part so I could drop you a note – it seems like you are one of the few people that still gets annoyed at him, and actually take the bait a lot…it’s too bad, because your other posts are invariably pretty insightful and enjoyable to read….but for some reason you let him push your buttons, and I think it’s a shame.
As I say in the other thread, I’m no pollyanna myself – I just think there are worse things than a guy who does come across as a bit of a clown sometimes.
true
and i’ll be honest that i do feed into it much more than i should….there’s more than just posting similarity to one of a group of people that attacked me when i was a moderator on espn’s old boards…..and i don’t mean attack online….i’d gladly explain more if, like you suggested, we had PM system here….so i do bait him because when he’s stuck to actual baseball insight instead of trolling, he’s left tremendously short, and call it the asshole deep inside me that still delights in reading more of his “insight” and badgering it….
btw, thanks for the comments otherwise on my posting….and when i say new, i guess i refer to a group of espn geeks who followed john from espn….i may have been much more a lurker than a poster at that time as i was trying to develop an eye to go along with statistical analysis, which seemed fairly easy for me to pick up….now i probably favor eye more than paper, but definitely would fall in john’s camp of requiring both for good evaluation….so when i call you a newbie….it’s probably a good thing that you haven’t been hovering around here as much as i since the turn of the century!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 20, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you HEARD Mel Kiper Jr on baseball?????
It will make you go running back to Joe Morgan and ask for his hand in marriage.
joe's not my type
…..that said, i mute kiper on football, so i likely would change the channel on him doing baseball…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 20, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh what the hey
Might as well give this a shot too. Baseless speculation follows:
FA’s
Sabathia to the Yanks, 8 years, truckloads of cash, makes the Zito deal look good in 4 years when his arm explodes from overuse.
Man-Ram to the Mets, 5 years, 50 mil. They give him the extra year, which I think he’d value.
Furcal resigns with the Dodgers for 4 years, 50 million.
Tex resigns with the Angels, who give him 8+ years and close to 200 million, with incentives up the @$$.
K-Rod goes to the Mets too… 5 years, 60 million. This contract also turns into an albatross in 2-3 years.
AJ Burnett to the Yanks for 5 years, 80+ million dollars. Gets injured next year and the name “Carl Pavano” gets thrown around by the NY Media. Comes back, and at some point in his contract will put the Yanks in the playoffs over the BoSox.
Pudge signs with the Giants, 2 year deal.
Trades
Justin Masterson and a PTBNL to the Rangers for Jarrod Saltalamachia. The PTBNL is a fringe prospect.
Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene to the Braves for Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Jordan Schaefer, Kelly Johnson and Cole Rohrbough . Trade is treated as a steal by Atlanta until Lillebridge has a recovery season next year, Schaefer regains his value, Flowers keeps hitting and Hernandez and Rohrbough keep doing well. Greene also does well getting the hell out of PETCO and recovers his value, later signing an extention with Atlanta. Escobar shifts to second.
Padres deal Chris Young to the Cubs for Felix Pie and a C pitching prospect.
A’s deal Henry Rodriguez to the Angels for Brandon Wood.
Flame away!
BoSox-Rangers deal
I like the idea, but I think they get Laird or Teagarden instead. I just don’t think the Sox make that deal for Salty.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Peavy has a career road ERA of 3.80 including a 4.78 this year
Bascially this guy is no better than Barry Zito outside of PETCO. I would hate to see the Braves get a guy who is not much better than Hudson. Braves need to rebuild and not become the Mariners or Orioles.
lets run the numbers
Jake Peavy’s away numbers, by year
2008: 4.28 ERA, 67/35 K/BB, 13 HR allowed (so a crap year)
2007: 2.57 ERA, 101/34 K/BB, 8 HR allowed (close to his home numbers, 30 less strikeouts though)
2006: 4.57 ERA, 78/29 K/BB, 11 HR allowed (about a run worse than at home)
2005: 2.98 ERA, 86/23 K/BB, 6 HR allowed (also very close to his home numbers with less strikeouts)
2004: 2.33 ERA, 78/22 K/BB, 9 HR allowed (also very close to his home numbers with roughly the same amount of strikeouts)
2003: 4.59 ERA, 83/44 K/BB, 24 HR allowed (so another crap year)
2002: only a hundred innings pitched, so forget it
My conclusions:
1. Peavy strikes less out away. Is that Petco, or just crap luck?
2. Peavy’s a bit more prone to the longball outside of Petco. Duh.
3. Peavy seems to alternate awesome away years with crappy away years. That may have something to do with the HR numbers… the years where he does worse, he gives up more longballs (which intuitively makes sense).
I think you’re overreacting, and I would kill for Jake Peavy.
As far as him being no better than Barry Zito, I’m going to choose you mean the Barry Zito that won a Cy Young Award with Oakland. You certainly can’t mean the soft-tosser that plays for the Giants…
(oh, and BP’s PECOTA system lists Tom Seaver and Don Sutton among Peavy’s best comps)
by David Tokarz on Oct 20, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Over-reacting?
After all he was spot on about the Teixeira deal absolutely killing the Braves farm system. Oh, wait…
Eh
I’m bored and procrastinating. Let me have my fun.
by David Tokarz on Oct 20, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
well schafer came out of nowhere, hanson emerged, Heyward and Freeman were drafted
I still don’t see an ace pitcher in the system and Hanson will be overhyped, Feliz might be a true ace but he could have been the Braves next closer.
What are you talking about?
It did take out a massive chunk of it, no? Imagine how much stronger their farm system would have been had they not made the deal
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 24, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not?
FAs
CC: Yanks
Manny: LAD
Tex: LAA
Sheets: Brewers
KRod: NYM
Giambi: Oakland
Furcal: StL
Burnett: Yanks
Lowe: Texas
Burrell: PHI
Dunn: AZ
Blake: CLE
Perez: SEA
Bradley: Texas
Hudson: NYM
Trades
Peavy and Greene to ATL for Escobar, Schaefer, JoJo Reyes + one filler prospect
Magglio to the Rays for Sonnastine, Gomes, and Reid Brignac
Street to CLE for Beau Mills, Josh Rodriguez and filler
JJ Hardy to SF for Jonathan Sanchez, and Jorge Sosa
Teagarden to Bos for Masterson
Uggla to LAA for Kendrick, Conger, and Sean O’Sullivan
Holliday to MIN for Kevin Slowey, Ben Revere and Kevin Mulvey
Fielder/Cain/Howard/Martin/Cano/Young not moved
Darvish not posted
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
not sure
why minnesota would add yet another outfielder to their mix….though a deal for atkins or stewart wouldn’t surprise me one bit….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Oct 21, 2008 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Uggla to LAA
Just as a note: that seems an awful lot for a guy who’s just about ready to be a full time DH.
by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 21, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Uggla's gotten a bad rap defensively because of the ASG
Uggla has been below average defensively but I don’t know if he’s been abominable. And even if he moves off 2b, it’s likely to be as a 3b before a DH. If you think the deal is still too much put in Wood as opposed to Kendrick.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
You'll have
had some interesting posts, but keep in mind that these are predictions, not You’re the GMs
Thanks for posting
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