Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects for 2009
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade A-: I put him ahead of Hosmer right now since he’s played pro ball and performed well.
2) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade A-: Nothing wrong with Hosmer, I think he’ll be excellent.
3) Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, Grade B: A tough grade, but I think his breakthrough this year was mostly for real. Could rank anywhere from 3 to 8 depending on how you value pitching vs. hitting.
4) Daniel Cortes, RHP, Grade B: A solid all-around pitching prospect.
5) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B: A solid all-around pitching prospect.
6) Daniel Duffy, LHP, Grade B: Great stats. Worried about fly ball tendency and perhaps durability.
7) Michael Montgomery, LHP, Grade B: Strong debut.
8) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: Want to see some pro numbers before ranking higher.
9) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade B-: Good numbers right out of college.
10) Dan Gutierrez, RHP, Grade B-: Sleeper.
11) Blake Wood, RHP, Grade C+: Great arm, Double-A troubles hurt ranking.
12) Joseph Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Future fourth outfielder? May still have enough upside to move beyond that.
13) Adrian Ortiz, OF, Grade C+: Hits for a high average, lots of speed, but still very raw for a college guy.
14) Tyler Sample, RHP, Grade C+: Very high upside, horrible numbers.
15) Chris Nicoll, RHP, Grade C+: Relief sleeper for 2009.
16) Matthew Mitchell, RHP, Grade C+: Good command, stuff may be marginal.
17) Jose Bonilla, C, Grade C+: Promising but a long way off.
18) Kelvin Herrera, RHP, Grade C+: Promising but a long way off.
19) Alexander Caldera, RHP, Grade C+: Throws strikes, stuff?
20) Mitch Maier, OF, Grade C: Should be a reasonable fourth/fifth outfielder. Age prohibits higher grade.
There are 18 other players who will probably be included in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, currently rated at Grade C: Juan Abreu, Greg Atencio, Jeff Bianchi, Ed Cegarra, Gilbert de la Vara, Brent Fisher, Chris Hayes, Blake Johnson, Matt Kniginyzky, John Lamb, Devon Lowery, Chris Lubanski, Julio Pimentel, Jared Plummer, Derrick Robinson, Sam Runion, and Jason Taylor.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Royals have made a lot of improvements, but still need more offensive depth beyond the top elite batters. Focus on pitching has yielded dividends at the lower levels, but injury attrition will hit at some point, and they could use more polished guys to mix with the tools players.
The next team up will be the Twins, followed by the Braves.
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70 comments
Comments
Bianchi
I’m quite interested to read what your review on him is….the folks I hear from say that he really has become minor league roster filler now and won’t be the guy he was once thought to be….I’m wondering if he’s still got a chance at even a major league backup career, or if his star has fallen so far as to be a career minor leaguer….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Oct 15, 2008 8:10 AM EDT
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Injuries have killed him
He bounced back a bit this year, but doesn’t look like the power hitting shortstop we envisioned when the Royals selected him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 10:39 AM EDT
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Hayenga
anyone know the status of P Keaton Hayenga? is he ever gonna pitch? he is a guy I had my eye on for down the line
by NYSOX on
Oct 15, 2008 9:05 AM EDT
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He is in instructs
should be active at the start of next season.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Oct 15, 2008 11:09 AM EDT
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Hayenga
Yep, he’s at instructs. Fastball was up to 96 this fall…very promising.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
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anything else you can tell me about this guy..........
does he profile as an ace? how many pitches does he have? sounds VERY intriguing but i can’t seem to find much info about him. thanks for your help.
by psugator on
Oct 15, 2008 3:16 PM EDT
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tall, skinny RHP
athletic enough to be all-state (Washington) in basketball. 92-93 fastball in HS.
2007 31st rounder…bought out of a Washington State U commitment for 300k, it was kind of surprising he was a WSU commit to begin with… but they have been kind of turning that program around lately.
Had a shoulder injury in HS, hence hes just now really beginning his career.
by nms on
Oct 15, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
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i don't understand......
doublestix says his FB is at 96 and nms says his FB in hs was 92-93………….which is it? could his FB have improved that much in one summer? how will this guy profile in a few years?
by psugator on
Oct 15, 2008 3:54 PM EDT
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well
Sorry, I meant his fastball touches 96, but it’s sitting at 92-93 right now just like it did in high school. He also has a curve ball that projects as a pretty good pitch, and he’s working on his changeup. Keep in mind he JUST started throwing in game situations again.
I don’t know if he projects as a #1, but I don’t think it’s crazy to think he might be a mid-rotation starter somewhere down the road. He’s so far away though with a shredded labrum already…who knows what will happen. We’ll see.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 4:50 PM EDT
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It is possible
his appeal is as an athletic, projectable velo guy. So, him jumping his velo like that would be in-line with his best-case scenario career path. But I, personally, don’t put too much weight in reported velocity unless I see it confirmed somewhere reputable or I see it myself.
Football prospects always see their 40 times exaggerated and pitchers always see their FB velos exaggerated.
So take it with a grain of salt, but it is possible that he is throwing 96.
by nms on
Oct 16, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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Excellent
The top 20s are the best time of the year.
I actually like the way the KC system is turning out: Big upside bats at the top (more reliable than big arms), followed by a fairly big stock of high upside arms (need an excess of pitchers usually to find a couple good ones). The overall depth could still use a boost, but I find the basic construction of the system aesthetically pleasing.
You can really tell the guys running this system were trained by Paul Snyder.
by aCone419 on
Oct 15, 2008 9:25 AM EDT
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I'll be interested to see what you say about Jason Taylor
He basically had the same year offensively as Moose. Better if you count steals and, since he sat out 2007, he essentially has the same experience and is less than 1 year older…hmmmm?
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on
Oct 15, 2008 10:09 AM EDT
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Maier is not much of a prospect
Not sure Nicoll really is one either.
I’d have Cegarra on the list somewhere.
Overall I can’t quibble though. I’m surprised Kila is as high as he is.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 10:38 AM EDT
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nicoll
I like Nicoll a lot. He adapted well to relief. Check out that K/IP ratio.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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Nicoll
i like him too ever since we drafted him. BUT, he had a some what serious arm injury at the end of the season that took him out of the AFL. might want to look into that.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 1:04 PM EDT
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nicoll
I can’t find anything about this. What is the injury?
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 1:18 PM EDT
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I don't know, honestly.
i just remember hearing something about an arm injury in the last game of the season. Then he was removed from the AFL roster.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 1:22 PM EDT
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Rowdy Hardy
He got roughed up in his AA transition, but as a member of his fan club, do you think there’s hope for him yet?
by GuyinNY on
Oct 15, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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Not really.
Maybe a LOOGY with his low arm slot, but that’s probably his upside.
Would have been really cool to see him make it as a starter, but I just don’t see it…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Maier is certainly
more of a prospect than Lubanski.
by gordonrules on
Oct 15, 2008 11:50 AM EDT
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I didn't even know Maier still qualified.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
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Jason Taylor
I have no idea why this kid is still flying under the radar after this season. There aren’t many players his age that show such an impressive combination of power and speed, as he slugged 17 HR and stole 40 bases this year as a 19 year old in the MWL while playing solid defense at 3rd base. He also had a very nice BB/K ratio of 81/97.
His overall OPS wasn’t outstanding (.790), but it also is hardly disappointing considering it’s his first full season in the pros. It was also dragged down by a poor AVG: 242/372/418. I’d expect an improvement in BABIP next year (272 this year) to help his bottom line.
Is Taylor a perfect player? No. But he has enough intriguing aspects to his game to make me think he’s certainly a top 20 prospect in the Royals system, and definitely should at least get a mention in a system review. That type of power and speed at a premium position is what scouts drool over.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Oct 15, 2008 10:59 AM EDT
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taylor
He’s in the book and won’t be cut. Positives include power, walks, and speed. Negatives…well, I saw him play in person, and he cannot hit breaking balls at all. He’s also weak defensively. But he’s interesting and a sleeper.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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Wasn't he suspended in 2007?
What was that all about?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 12:07 PM EDT
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solid defense at 3B?
23 errors in 103 games (.910 FP) and a 2.26 RFg…….that’s pretty poor defense by the looks of it
why isn’t this guy playing the OF if he’s so fast? how did he get stuck at 1B for 50 games?
by Wheelhouse on
Oct 15, 2008 12:19 PM EDT
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i think he'll eventually be in the OF if he continues to hit
Moose moved to 3B midseason so they just moved Taylor over to 1B for the time being.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Cortes = B
Interesting; I did not see the numbers, over the course of the year, that reflect improved development that typically comes with such a high"ish" rating. I did not see him pitch first hand, and understand there’s value in that I cannot determine without further scouting. As a closet Royals fan, I hope he develops into an effective SP and gains additional command.
by klmstrat on
Oct 15, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
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For some reason
I see him as a future closer.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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What?
How does he profile as a closer? Doesn’t have overpowering stuff, has 3 pitches, don’t see it.
by killa on
Oct 17, 2008 1:10 AM EDT
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He throws hard...and has a great curve
And his changeup still isn’t very good.
I see him as a starter, but it’s not out of the question to see him as a late inning/closer at some point.
He’s 21 though…tons of time to improve that CH.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 17, 2008 1:26 AM EDT
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Only way he ends up as a closer
is if injuries derail him.
He has plenty of stuff and a good enough repertoire to be a plus starter.
by alskor on
Oct 18, 2008 12:49 AM EDT
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Right now he profiles very well as a closer
Plus-plus fastball, plus curveball, and his third pitch is somewhat unreliable. Great stuff, below average control. He’d make a great closer. Still has front-of-the-rotation SP potential though.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 20, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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Cortes
I see him as a SP and believe he’s a top 20-25 pitching prospect.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Oct 15, 2008 7:18 PM EDT
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+1
League(Texas) and Park factors made his year look less impressive than it really was. Components were very strong.
Im really surprised he’s not #3 on this list. I realize John had the caveat about hitters vs. pitchers… but come on… top 25 starting pitching prospect versus 25 year old 1B???
by alskor on
Oct 16, 2008 12:40 AM EDT
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It is a quibble
but I don’t see any reason to rank Montgomery over Melville, unless you are a professional amateur scout who has really watched ’em both and broken ’em down
by nms on
Oct 15, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
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melville
I just want to see some numbers out of Melville before going higher than Grade B. There were mixed reports about him this spring even before the bonus demand issue. I am usually conservative with a grade for a guy who hasn’t pitched yet.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
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John
Do you find yourself more conservative with pitchers than hitters? Is it easier to project the bats?
Also, do you think the Royals have a future #1 in their system?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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yeah
Yeah, I tend to be more conservative about pitchers, esp. guys who haven’t played yet. Number one guy? Some of these lower level guys have that ultimate ceiling if everything falls right but none of them are sure things just yet.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 7:01 PM EDT
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TINSTAAPP!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 16, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
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Cegarra
He had a great MWL showing, and he’s only 19. I know almost nothing about the pitches he throws, but after his MWL showing I thought I’d see him higher on this list. Can anyone elaborate on what he brings to the table?
Go Rangers!
by rooster on
Oct 15, 2008 1:41 PM EDT
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Chris McConnell
His numbers are not all that impressive, but I saw him play a couple of times this year and I was very impressed with what I saw. He had good range both to his right and left, and showcased a strong arm. His swing is a bit mechanical, but he seemed to have a good idea of the zone. He hit only one homer this year, but I was there to see it and it was a bomb! He did have 29 2Bs this year, and I could see him growing into some more power. His grade should probably be a C, but I see him making it to the majors as a utility infielder for a couple of years and think he should be included in the book.
by Birdfan01 on
Oct 15, 2008 3:41 PM EDT
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mcconnell
I considered him but decided his bat was too weak. However I might put him in anyway. If so I would probably have to cut someone else.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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Similarly
Josh Johnson looks like a future glove man infielder with an ability to draw a walk, although absolutely no power.
Don’t think either should have made the list though.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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johnson
johnson almost made the cut.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 6:59 PM EDT
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I like the list
Moustakas and Hosmer look like all-star bats. Montgomery was pretty solid in his debut.
John,
Where do you expect they’ll start Melville next year?
by RoyalsFan4Life on
Oct 15, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
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Burlington IA I would think
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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Just noticed
David Lough is nowhere mentioned, and Julio Pimentel and Blake Johnson are honorable mentions. Really? Those three aren’t as good a prospect as Maier, Nicoll or Dickerson?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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I like David Lough myself....
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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lough
Lough…almost put him in. Good athlete.
Pimentel and Johnson were dismal at Northwest Arkansas. All hype at this point.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 6:58 PM EDT
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Chris Hayes
Just wanted to add I’m a huge Chris Hayes fan. Tough to say if he’s a prospect or not, as he’s an undrafted submariner, but who knows, maybe a guy like that can break through and contribute at the MLB level.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 15, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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Derrick Robinson
he’s gonna be good. Real good.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on
Oct 15, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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yes!
I have another one on the D. Robinson bandwagon!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Oct 15, 2008 5:15 PM EDT
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I'm worried about DRob....
He almost reminds me of Gathright…. never quite making it to his potential.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 6:32 PM EDT
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robinson
I do not believe in his bat. At all.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 6:58 PM EDT
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I agree
Gathright is an apt comparison. Probably not nearly as good as Gathright
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 16, 2008 10:59 AM EDT
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(insert car-jumping joke here)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Oct 17, 2008 10:39 AM EDT
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Thank You!
I don’t believe in him either. Until he posts a .800+ OPS he’s not a good prospect. In his defense, I think he has some odd splits. That tells me that maybe he should give up the switch hitting and just be a righty, get on base and steal some bases. Regardless, I don’t like him as a prospect.
by Stook on
Oct 17, 2008 10:34 PM EDT
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a point to consider
A point to consider: the initial run through gave me 47 players in this system who could be worth writing about. I had to pare that down to 38, which is the most I usually include in any one system. When you get down to the marginal Grade C types, it is hard to make choices.
by John Sickels on
Oct 15, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
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is this the first year in a while you had to make cuts?
:) I love my Royals.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 15, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
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no
Well some teams it is a stretch to get to 35. The royals used to be like that, so this is progress.
by John Sickels on
Oct 16, 2008 10:28 AM EDT
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Have to admit
The royals system is starting to look much better, they still have quite a ways to go to catch some of the other top systems, but the focus on drafting is starting to show up.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on
Oct 15, 2008 8:30 PM EDT
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Hosmer an A-!
Wow. I am surprised, although very pleased because I picked him up for my fantasy team. He has gotten a lot of positive comment on this site.
by wobatus on
Oct 16, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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Giavotella
Way too high in my book. I’m going to give the ole “gut feeling”, and say he never amounts to much, with an Eckstein as an upside. As a Royals fan, I obviously hope for him, but I don’t see it happening. Again, not a bad debut, I’m just calling a “gut feeling”. Feel free to call me on it, just sayin’.
Cegarra, Runion, and DRob should be in the top 20 IMO. Cegarra based on this year, Runion will break out next year, DRob is just better than at least 5 of the Top 20.
by killa on
Oct 17, 2008 1:17 AM EDT
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rob
I see no evidence that he can hit, either statistically or in person.
by John Sickels on
Oct 17, 2008 9:02 AM EDT
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Middle of the diamond
Strategy is to build around a nucleus of young power hitters. Add the position players now, and continue to build pitching through the draft.
I’d begin with shoring up the middle of diamond. Mark Teahen and Ryan Shealy would both be attractive trade targets for the Angels, and Chone Figgins would be a great fit as an exciting speed player. Also, take a chance on a young centerfielder and move David DeJesus to RF. Cory Sullivan, Chris Denorfia, and Shane Robinson all come to mind. Perhaps someone with more experience such as Wily Taveras would be more deserving. Or if they can afford to spend some money, Mike Cameron will be available as a free agent.
by StickRat on
Oct 17, 2008 1:41 PM EDT
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Hmmm
Royals aren’t going to be interested in a one year contract like Figgins, and I can’t see the Angels being interested in Shealy or Teahen at all.
Those centerfielders you list all look like 5th OF to me – they’d be better off playing Mitch Maier (who is no great shakes either). And why bring in Taveras or any of those guys when they already have Gathright?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 17, 2008 2:29 PM EDT
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because
I imagine all of them would hit better than Gator.
by gordonrules on
Oct 17, 2008 3:23 PM EDT
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wasn't DRob supposed to be a Gator?
Florida football?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Oct 22, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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