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Top 2009 Prospect

Never too early to start to make some bold predictions for next year.  Below are my top 6 candidates for Player of the Year Honors next year (in no particular order), assuming Price/Wieters/Snider do not qualify.  I think a case can be made for each and I'm curious to hear what the readers think.

Please vote and if there is a glaring omission in your opinion, or you feel very strongly about an alternate candidate please post.

 

 

Poll
Who do you think will be the Top Propsect for 2009
Jesus Montero
24 votes
Jason Heyward
161 votes
Rick Porcello
60 votes
Michael Stanton
19 votes
Neftali Feliz
61 votes
Brett Wallace
27 votes

352 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 66 comments

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way too early

so many things can factor into this that it doesn’t even make sense to do right now….heck, one of the best rookies in MLB this year wasn’t on a roster at this time last year….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Oct 13, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well,

I agree its early, but it’s still fun. I would think most people going into last year would have had David Price and Matt Wieters on the radar, just like Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw the year before. It’s just a poll to see where ppl are leaning.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 13, 2008 11:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

OK... but listing six candidates? That's ridiculous

Just to take an obvious A’s-related example, you include Feliz and Porcello (?!), yet don’t list either Anderson OR Cahill. I’m sure there are plenty of other players who can stake a claim. Rasmus, Bumgarner, the list goes on. You might as well just ask “Which of these six players do you think is the best of the group?”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

the case can certainly be made for Bumgarner, I just limited it to six guys that will most likely be in the disucssion, but there are certainly others (Bumgarner, Chacin, etc.) that an argument can be made and which I encourage.

Cahill and Anderson are solid, but I do not think they project to have the same kind of ceiling, k ability and potential dominance of Feliz/Porcello/Bumgarner.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 13, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see, Cahill and Anderson clearly can't match Porcello's dominant 5.18 K/9

A mere 10 strikeouts per 9 innings in A/AA at age 20 clearly is insufficient.

Fail.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

l'm not sure

the need to be snarky. For me, the fact that the post is stirring debate means that it’s served it’s purpose. You can certainly make a case for Cahill and Anderson which you have done. From my reading of BP and BA they see Cahill/Anderson projecing more a #2, whereas Porcello having the stuff and ceiling that he does, as a future ace. Porcello can dial it up, my understanding is the reason his k’s being what they were was due to the Tigers working on his command and secondary pitches this year.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point is not that I think that they are going to be the #1 overall prospect,

but rather that there are probably 20 players with some chance at it, most of whom aren’t represented on this poll. Which makes it meaningless except as a comparison between these specific players.

Well, that and that Porcello isn’t one of those 20 players. Sorry. You have a year like this one on your track record, I’m sorry, you are not the #1 overall prospect. Someone will be comparable on a scouting level with a cleaner record.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

wow.
You’re a piece of work

You almost make it sound as if Porcello had a poor year, what a joke.

by nms on Oct 14, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

that came off harsher than i meant it too.

point remains though, Porcello had a great year

by nms on Oct 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3.87 FIP in A-ball, or whatever it was?

Not a great year. An acceptable year, OK. Not great.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry

theres more to pitching than FIP, despite what some say.

A kids straight out of high school shutting down lineups in high-A? Thats excellent.

by nms on Oct 14, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Will you

quit apologizing damnit.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Tim Alderson did the same thing

not to imply that it isn’t impressive, but wouldn’t Alderson be the stronger prospect right now?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 15, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

porcello had a terrific year

c’mon, i know you like to play devil’s advocate but i’m not buying it. porcello, looks like the real deal, especially when you factor in he wasn’t allowed to use all of his pitches.

sometimes we forget what the minor leagues are all about. that is to work on things that are weaknesses or in need of refinement. i’m quite sure the tigers brass are over the moon with the results from this past year.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There will be a pitcher out there,

I don’t know who, but one of them, somewhere, who will have comparable stuff to Porcello and will not have a big honking 5.18 K/9 year sticking out of his statistical resume. That player will be a better prospect.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bumgarner

I believe that’s who you’re looking for.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

could be

bumgarner is surely in the mix but that’s no slant on porcello. for the sake of my fantasy team i sure hope you’re right.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

NO

I’m pretty sure the post says MY top 6 and asks that if you feel there is another candidate to list them. The poll is meant to limit the choices to six, but obviously you could have 20, 100, or evey prospect listed in the poll (as any prospect has a chance to be #1.) The list (including Porcello) reflects some of the top tier guys that made a breakthrough this year and could be the top prospect next year, so I don’t think it’s meaningless, it’s trying to come up with a consensus choice. If that consensus is OTHER (like yours), by way of ppl’s post, then so be it.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some people

only read a line or two and then stop for whatever reason. Obviously Mr. Thomas only read as far as the poll in your post, just like he only read as far as the K/9 on his stat sheet. Not only that, context is lacking. Numbers in A-ball are worth fuckle – it’s 90% scouting at that level. It’s why guys like ARod were rated so highly right out of HS. I can’t wait for Porcello to start mowing people down so this obnoxious obsession with his K rate will go away.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

I only read as far as the poll.

Wait, the poll is at the bottom of the post. Hmm. I believe that actually means I read the entire post! (Which is true. Not that there was a heck of a lot of the rest of it to read. Just stating the facts.)

If anyone is demonstrating an inability to read, it’s you… since you clearly aren’t grasping my point. We are talking about THE NUMBER ONE PROSPECT IN BASEBALL. Not “a good prospect” on some Platonic scale, THE BEST PROSPECT. Someone out there will have a better track record and scouting than Porcello does unless he strikes out like 50% of the hitters he faces next year with a 1.30 ERA. Which is sufficiently laughable for me to dismiss his candidacy as impossible.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, you fail

The question was posed as who will win the 2009 MLPOY. How will Porcello’s 2008 K rate (and your obsession over it) factor in to who wins that award? It won’t, Mr. Sillypants.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because it's an indicator of future performance?

If he can’t strike out a bunch of teenagers now, why would we expect his K rate to improve enough for him to be the very best prospect in baseball?

Wow, I just sided with PaulThomas. I’m going to hop in a shower.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh.

So is scouting. So is the context that he wasn’t allowed to do some things. It wasn’t a “bunch of teenagers” he couldn’t strike out – he jumped from HS to High-A where the average age is closer to 21-22 and more than held his own.

Why would you expect his k rate to improve? I dunno, maybe the same reason I don’t expect Joe Savery (who lead Porcello’s league in K’s) to ever amount to much – scouting. Or because he wasn’t allowed to throw what may be his best pitch this year. I don’t get why some people can’t wrap their brain around that concept.

Don’t hop in the shower. Nothing good can come from that.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh yourself

Show me a high school pitchers drafted in the first round in the last ten years who amounted to anything, and I’ll show you a much higher k rate in the minors.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some men

you just can’t reach.

Show me one of these pitchers you’re talking about who was not allowed to throw his best pitch. Thought so.

Context and scouting. Like I said, there are tons of pitchers in the same league that dwarfed Porcello’s k rate. Most of them couldn’t hold Porcello’s jock from a talent perspective and therefore will never go as far as he will.

Here’s a good example for you. Jeff Samardzija. Wasn’t striking guys out, wasn’t doing a whole lot of things all that impressively. Many scouts stuck to their guns, as did the Cubs personnel in charge of player development. They taught him some things and promoted him aggressively, despite 99% of people on boards like this saying they were crazy. Looks like the scouts were on to something, no? In Porcello’s case, it’s even more compelling because he actually did have great results – despite not racking up ton’s of k’s and being very young for his league. Many of the scouts that were touting Shark are the same ones saying glowing things about Porcello.

If you want to look at prospects through an entirely stat-oriented view and neglect context, be my guest. You’re going to be wrong about a lot of guys – not to mention it raises the question of why you’re even paying that much attention to prospects if you can order your top 100 directly off the stat sheets.. At the same time, scouts aren’t infalable, but it’s very wise to listen them, especially when they make as much racket as they are over someone like Porcello.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

see below
Or because he wasn’t allowed to throw what may be his best pitch this year. I don’t get why some people can’t wrap their brain around that concept.

when the shackles come off you’ll see what some of us see already. that is the big picture.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

1) Porcello isn’t the pitching prospect I’ve heard the most enthusiastic “racket” about from scouts.

2) I don’t believe in ranking prospects number one overall on the basis of a pitch we haven’t seen. Maybe he will be that great next year, but I’d like to actually see what happens with that pitch next year.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's there.

Trust me, it’s there. Nobody has said anything about ranking him #1 overall – at least not at this point. It’s about his chances to put it all together and be the POY in 2009. I think he’s a top contender to do so.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not totally discounting that k-rate, otherwise he may be ranked in the top 3 right now in my book, but at the same time I’m not weighing it that heavy so he is a top 10 guy for me.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

kinda missed the point

i’m forecasting where he’ll be next yr. i understand that there will be some skepticism right now. kinda like your triunfel pick.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grow up

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I fart

in your general direction. It stinks. Like your reading comprehension.

by slurve on Oct 14, 2008 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, recycled wit? I'm impressed

At your environmental friendliness, I mean. Not the wit.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 15, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no need to apologize

the criticism regarding this thread is ridiculous. either vote for one of the 6 choices or post who you think it should be and why.

as others have suggested if you don’t like the diary simply move along. what is the big deal?

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heyward seems to be the most likely. Then Porcello.

by 17843 on Oct 14, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Definitely way too early

I mean, I can make a case right now for several guys.

But I’ll go out on a “limb” (since he wasn’t included in the 6) and say Mike Moustakas. I loved the way he finished this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just dominated in the minors next year and perhaps got a cup of big league experience in September, and getting a shot in the big leagues in 2010. That’s how much I like how Moustakas finished.

Of course, I could say Logan Morrison, Josh Vitters, Lars Anderson, and several other guys, along with the guys that have been mentioned.

by toonsterwu on Oct 14, 2008 1:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

nice picks

Anderson and Moustakas could certainly be there next year too. Toon, where do you think Moose will stick? It’s a debate among Royal fans, if Moose continues to show good defence should he stay at third and move Gordon to LF?

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's probably what I'd do

Moose at 3rd and Gordon in the OF (or 1st I guess but seems better to send him out there).

That said … depending on what moves GMDM makes, I’d sure be intrigued with the idea of perhaps trying Moustakas at 2nd just to see if that possibility exists, even if it’s only for a couple weeks. Maybe it’s just me … but that would be awfully tantalizing. Ain’t gonna happen, though.

by toonsterwu on Oct 14, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like this...

despite what others are saying, I see nothing wrong with this poll at all…. besides there not being a “Other” selection. Sure we are predicting a year into the future, but isn’t that what we all do with prospects anyways? It’s not like this is asking for “Best Prospect After 2009”… it’s just asking us to guess who the MiLB Player of the Year will be next year. Doesn’t make them the best prospect.

Anyways, I am going with Lars Anderson. The recent trend has been to pick a guy in the higher minors usually. AA or AAA, so I am guessing they stick with it. And since Lars got a decent taste of AA last year, there will be less adjustment time for him if he starts there next year and then moves up to AAA. Most of the players that were listed on the poll were still in A ball, so that means there is a greater chance of them not succeeding since the AA Transition is usually a hard one for most kids. You can say with confidence right now that probably 3 of those 6 will struggle (at least somewhat) next year moving up a level.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Oct 14, 2008 2:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

IMO

Matt Weiters/David Price will be(obviously)..

Next year it will be Lars Anderson/Fernandon Martinez.

The year after that Heyward or Montero.

by schmosterballs92 on Oct 14, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it...

as excited as I am for him (not as excited as a month ago when Seattle still had a shot at the #1 overall pick though), he may not even pitch in a single game in the minors next year. That all depends on contract negotiations and what his drafting team decide to do with him though.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Oct 14, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This

Barring an injury or regression, it’s a no-brainer. He should be #1, even if he doesn’t pitch a game in the minors.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Read

The Original Poster is not asking who the #1 Prospect in the minors will be next year, they are asking who we think will win Player of the Year honors. Big difference.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Oct 14, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

the poll is not speculating on the ’09 draft (unless you think Strasburg will out perform all others from June ’09 onwards, but like Brickhaus says that presumes he signs immediately). You are right in that the consensus is Strasburg is head and shoulders above the rest of the ’09 class.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha

The title and the poll question were a bit misleading. Really two different questions being asked. Top prospect, I’ll go with Strasburg, still. MLPOY, Pedro Alvarez is as good of a guess as any, although it’s just as likely that it ends up being someone who comes out of nowhere.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 14, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pedro Alvarez

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Oct 14, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

This guy will rocket through the minors next year.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Oct 14, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never thought

of Alvarez, I put in Wallace because of his performance already this year, but Alvarez could certainly make a move next year, as could Buster Posey with the Giants.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mad Bum

he has to be in the discussion.

Bonds stands alone.

Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 14, 2008 5:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Tim Beckham?

Alvarez would be my pick, but don’t you kind of have to put Beckham on the list somewhere?

I think Heyward’s demolishing everyone else in the poll because he’s the only one of the four best candidates or so to actually be included here.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

5 Names

Heyward
Alvarez
Porcello
Feliz
Lars

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Oct 14, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6th name

Just post (Other)

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Oct 14, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Add

Joe Benson

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 14, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off the top of my head

Lars Anderson
Pedro Alvarez
Carlos Triunfel
Angel Villalona
Mike Moustakas

I would also think about Tim Beckham, Josh Vitters, Jarrod Parker, Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Justin Smoak, and some others.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

triunfel?

i don’t mean to poke holes in your balloon but triunfel has no business here imo….. and i like triunfel.

kudos for the bold prediction though.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is throwing noodles at the wall

We’re all just trying to guess what’s to come in a year. I think Triunfel can stick at 2B and his bat will continue to develop, both of which would make him an elite prospect. That’s my most ambitious pick though, as you point out.

by aap212 on Oct 14, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no doubt

hell, this whole business of prospecting is like throwing noodles at the wall.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've Posted a Revised Poll

Pls. see the new post. thanks.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 14, 2008 7:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the poll you had was just fine

or rather just don’t remove jesus montero .. :-)

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 14, 2008 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lay off the crack pipe

Wieters or David Price should be 1 or 2, not really any argument that is worth anything for anyone else over them. Heyward is the best of that bunch, but I shouldn’t even tell you that because you clearly are clueless anyone leaving the top prospect off your list. BRETT WALLACE? Really?

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 15, 2008 7:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Before you insult anybody READ the post.

Wieters and Price are not eligible for the 2009 list due to losing their eligibility in 2008, as they will likely crack the majors next year. This list is NOT for this year but intead for next year.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Oct 15, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly, I can now understand

how literacy and aptitude is in decline in this country.

Did ppl forget how to read, or is it comprehesion that’s the problem??? As has been stated by the good people who took the time to read the post, WIETERS AND PRICE ARE NOT eligible!!! They will likely be in the majors next year.

THIS IS A 2009 Top MINOR League Player of the Year. I thought the post was self-explanatory, but apparently not.

by RoyalsFan4Life on Oct 15, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Predicting the future is tough, you know.

by Fanon on Oct 15, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, it was kind of awkwardly titled

I understand what you were saying, but I had to re-read it myself. Then again, I’ve often suspected I was illiterate. The two things I found confusing were whether you meant the beginning of 2009 or the end of 2009, and the MILB player of the year section. It seems like we rarely think in terms of who will be PoY except at the very end of the year for a few days. We spend more time, I think, talking about who is the top prospect. Because your title was the top prospect, and the text referred to PoY, I got even more confused. I think it might have been easier if you simply titled it “Top 2010 Prospect,” and ignored the guessing of who would be MILB PoY

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Oct 16, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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