My tentative Cubs top 20

There were reports late in the year that he was tossing in the high 80’s. If that’s the case, much of his intrigue is gone for me. Could I see a borderline top 20 case? Yeah, but with the lack of production, if he really was in the high 80’s (I believe BA, thecubreporter, and others mentioned that, although I haven’t googled it up exactly), then the “potential” is lacking as well in that, you can’t ponder him as a power lefty arm either.

That said, sure, I can buy a top 20 case for Veal. And I may yet change my mind to that.

Btw, thanks King Billy and others who rec’d this. Wow … the Cubs system get rec’d!

As for Kroeger, I think he can be a useful player in the bigs potentially. He’s had slow starts the last 2 years if I remember correctly. He’s actually, as you note, still relatively young, and he has some pop. Can backup at 1st, corner OF, and can pinch in CF. I could see him in a top 20, certainly in that C range. Right now, I would have him in the 20’s, but certainly, considering the lack of talent in the upper levels, an argument can be made for Kroeger. I just preferred other guys.

Castillo is a plus receiver. Not sure where you heard they are trying him at first base. That isn’t in the plans at all. An elite defensive catcher coming off a decent offensive season in AA, and with some expecting that his offense will get better, doesn’t get in the B range? I’m curious why you would say he’s in the C range, then.

Colvin was a tough equation. I buy C+ … but the reports all year was that he was forcing discipline at the expense of his instincts (short of it, the ability was still there). The late surge had me slide him up to a B-, if that means anything, so no disagreement there.

Ceda isn’t in the B range? I’m not sure how a guy that was generally considered a B prospect last year (some had B-, some had B+) and improved this year doesn’t stay in the B range. I guess you probably value the production angle then, but even then, his control was improved. Not great, but improved. You have to somewhat take the High A numbers with a grain of salt because they were starting him to get him to work on his pitches, knowing that he would struggle. I guess maybe we value things differently, but a youngster with, by most accounts (BA/BP and more) elite stuff and production in AA at that age, even a pen arm, qualifies in the B range for me.

I can understand the Cashner comment, but then again, plenty of folks loved the kid. I think he’s Ceda-lite actually (don’t understand why a lot of folks have him ahead of Ceda when Ceda’s stuff is, by most accounts, better). That said, he’ll be in the B range for most prospect lists, I imagine, based off “upside”. If you don’t buy upside as a factor in grading, then fine, I can understand.

So that leaves 2 – Ryan Flaherty, who I’m actually not high on, and Shark. Let’s start with Flaherty. I guess my question is, what would you grade him? Sure, he was “only” in the NWL, but eh, some teams slow play their college kids. He hit well there. No, he’s not going to stick at short, but even as a 2nd baseman, he profiles as plus offensive guy with enough glove. What would he have had to do this past year to justify a B- type grade for you, and why is he in the C range for you?

As for Shark, that one is a tough call. I can buy someone saying B. I’ve still got mixed feelings on Shark, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in the pen, although I anticipate the Cubs giving him a long look. That said, the questions on his “stuff” have largely quieted down, as he was pumping plus stuff in AAA and the bigs. I can’t imagien many people won’t have Shark as a B range, so I’m curious why you think he’s a C.

As for the rest -

Jay Jackson – What else could he have done? Sure, he lacks the big name, but athletic kid that had a stellar first year, pumps a moving low90’s fastball that touches the mid-90’s, has solid secondary options isn’t a C+? Add in that he has a loose arm (in a positive sense) and most think his fastball can add a little more velo now that he focuses on it, and I don’t know what else he needs to garner a C+.

Atkins and Spears as C’s instead of C+’s would be fine by me. I gave them the old succeeding at a young age in the upper levels bonus, but the former is a back end of the rotation type, and the latter is an utility infielder type, so I’ve got no gripes there. I’m actually fine with Dae Eun Rhee as a C as well, due to the surgery and I’m okay with Hoffpauir as a C if someone opted that route due to age.

That leaves Dan McDaniel, who I admittedly am higher than most on (btw, I’m higher than most on Rosa, so it surprised me that you thought Rosa was in the B range, as I think a lot of people would slide him down to say a C+ due to defensive concerns). I really like McDaniel, but I can buy C there as well. I guess I’m a sucker for hard throwing righties (mid-90’s heat with movement) and solid secondary options at that age. Certainly has work to do.

I can’t imagine any of the C’s are really debatable, but if so, feel free to let me know why.

So, it sounds like 6 of the top 9 (I can buy Colvin as a C+) is where I would be very curious to your explanations as to why their grades are too high (and maybe you are fine with Jay Jackson’s grade as well, so maybe it’s just 5 of the top 8). This is really curiousity, but I’d be very interested in a response.

Did some quick googling to try and find something on Castillo for you. I tried to avoid comments from Cub followers (although there’s plenty online from Cub followers on his defense) in case you think there might be bias, so there’s this

“Wellington Castillo, C Playing last year at age 20, Castillo more than held his own in the Midwest League, hitting .271 with 11 homers in 98 games while fighting through cold weather just a year after missing most of the season with a high ankle sprain. Getting sidetracked by injury is a big reason why people don’t know much about him, but they will soon. He’s the best defensive catcher in their system and the Cubs see a lot of Yadier Molina in him. He’s got great catch and throw skills and does a terrific job of blocking balls in the dirt. He’ll get the chance to open some eyes in big-league camp this spring and will likely make the jump up to Double-A.
Audio: Castillo puts Peoria on the board”

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080211&content_id=346622&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

Every single report I’ve heard suggests that he’s one of the best defensive catchers in the minors. I don’t think he even played first base this year at all … if he did, it was as some late inning shift that I’m too lazy to go check right now. Are you sure you aren’t thinking of Jake Fox, Blake Lalli, Steve Clevenger? Fox moved off catching a couple years ago, Lalli is moving away, and Clevenger has been playing a lot more first as well.

As for hitting, well, no one expects stardom from him in that department. He did post, imo, a fairly respectable line in 198 AA AB’s, .298/.362/.414.

There were some positive XST reports last year, but it never materialized in Boise. Is the fork in his back? With the Cubs, it probably is. They’ll give him another go, but when he was only in the high 80’s at Boise, touching low 90’s, some of that upside factor is gone as well. We sorta messed with him in the early days, mechanics and what not, so I think another team will give the kid a chance, as he’s still young, so I wouldn’t put the fork completely in on his career, but with the Cubs? I’ll say I think he needs an amazingly strong year to get things back on track, but that’s my guess, and I certainly do not expect it (actually, I stopped “expecting” anything on Pawelek 2 years ago).

He had passport issues when the Hawks played in Vancouver this summer. For whatever reason, the Cubs got enormously angry at him and shut him down for the season.

He’s a reclamation project at this point.

I hope we move him to the rotation, as our system is loaded with pen arms. He’d offer more starting potential (granted, potential is the key for now) than a lot of the guys in the system, as we have a lot of back end of the rotation types.

Quick question since you played with him – as a starter at Chabot, was he touching mid-90’s or pumping mid-90’s consistently? I know the reports this past year said that, as a pen arm, he was pumping mid-90’s consistently.

Don’t disagree on Cashner. I’m tempted to move him to a B- as well.

I don’t necessarily agree on the Vitters/Samardzija comments, but I can understand them. Odd … I haven’t heard the Kendrick comparisons floated around much. Most projections I’ve heard still expect him to hit plus power, and considering the defensive improvements that were made this year (prior to this year, few thought he could stick at 3rd, whereas most suggestions now give him a solid shot at sticking there), I thought it was defensible to keep him at a B+ that many people had him at last year (I think John had him as a B+ and others roughly suggested that he was a raw elite chip … ). But I can buy B, as injury hurting status is understandable. As for Samardzija, I’m not convinced he can hack it as a starter either. I think he’ll be one of the most interesting guys to follow to see how scouts graded him. I don’t necessarily grade on what I think they’ll be, but what I think they might garner, but that said, the Shark in AAA and the bigs was far diffeernt from the Shark in AA (well … the Shark in AA before he turned it around after his horrible slump in May … the Shark in AA after he turned the corner was pumping gas that he ended up showing in AAA. The argument made has essentially been that the Cubs had him working on other pitches and he was, I guess, essentially overthinking).

I am curious about your Ceda comment. Every single report I’ve read suggests that Ceda is future closer potential, but needs to work on his control, which improved this year. He has two plus pitches (someone commented somewhere that they would be plus-plus, and I believe both pitches were said to be 70’s, although I don’t have any online subscriptions anymore). BA has long said he has elite stuff. Short of it is … I can understand why some folks are worried, and I can understand a lower grade, but I’m curious why you think he lacks closer potential. I’m not all that worried about the 4 walk rate this year … if it’s there next year, then I’d be worried. Considering the age, considering the scouting reports suggesting improvement, considering the plus stuff, considering the solid performance in AA … I thought B was definitely defensible, but obviously, others, such as yourself and PaulThomas disagree

There was a Robert Hernandez, who had a PED suspension to start the year, who was solid/intriguing last year. I don’t believe his peripherals were all that different this year (too lazy to check right now), but he didn’t show that much improvement on return. That said, he’s young. I could see them starting in Peoria next year, although a jump to Daytona is possible. I just don’t know if he showed enough improvement to justify keeping a top 20 slot (he was for me last year), and then there was the PED suspension.

Rosa: Maybe you are right. I think he can fill out some more, and I’ve heard suggestions to that extent. Swapped an email with BA this summer and they suggested that his power potential was big enough for first base. Certainly, for him to have value at first, he’ll need to develop that power, so how the power goes will determine his future.

Samson: I hope you are right. I didn’t get a chance to see him enough this year, so was just basing it off reports and an email that I swapped with BA.

Lee Hak-ju and Drew Rundle: I’ve got a hard time placing Lee on a top 20 list without knowing what he can do. He very well could be there, so I acknowledge that it’s just me not willing to put a kid on there who wasn’t stateside. As for Rundle, it was nice to see something finally happen. But I want to see performance at a higher level since he’s been there done that. I might’ve given it more consideration, but he slumped in August after his red hot July.

Suarez had TJS around this time last year and came back to pitch relatively well the final month and half. He’s still a starter, his stuff looks as good and his control (oddly, considering he was coming off TJS) improved. He’ll likely start the season in extended spring training and head off to short season Boise as an 18 year old.

He’s arguably our only viable shortstop prospect in our system (well, unless you think Darwin Barney’s bat can pick it up or that Marwin Gonzalez can learn to hit, I have some hope on Barney, but not much).

.