Brian Roberts traded to the Cubs

by Harold Baines on Jan 9, 2008 9:05 AM EST Comment 50 comments

"Orioleshangout.com has learned through several sources that the trade of All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts to the Cubs has been finalized.

The early reports indicate that Orioles will get back 22-year old right-hander pitching prospect Sean Gallagher, 25-year old left-handed starting pitcher Sean Marshall, and 24-year old shortstop Ronny Cedeno."

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40-man Roster Space

The Orioles just lost Fiorentino to waivers when they took him off the 40-man. They need to free up 2 spots for this trade to happen.

More trades coming?

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bedard

If Bedard is still an Oriole by the end of the week I'll be surprised.

by Harold Baines on Jan 9, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope so...

But that will only make the 40-man problems worse.

I'd look for trades of lower-tier veterans like Millar and Payton who would bring back low-level prospects that don't need to go on the 40-man.

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very good trade for the O's

They got good young players in return. Cedeno is pretty decent, and Gallagher/Marshall could both be decent starters.
Cubs didn't really need Roberts. The obp will help them, but what does DeRosa do now?

by doubledribble on Jan 9, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

umm...

Hate to be a negative nancy, but in what possible way is Ronny Cedeno "pretty decent?"

Career slash numbers
MiLB(2088 ABs): .276/.329/.395
MLB(688 ABs) : .247/.277/.349

That's the kind of bad that makes your eyes bleed. He's not terrible defensively, but he typically comes in around average or just above. This isnt John McDonald in the field, just with the bat. Cedeno played one full season where he put up an OPS of 610. Terrible. If the Cubs werent stuck in the 1940's in terms of player evaluation this guy would have never sniffed the majors.

Oh yeah, he's also going into his age 25 season, so there's really not a whole lot of hope that he develops into a decent player given he has such a long way to go. Right now he has neither the bat nor glove to even stick as a utility player. He's a poor man's Alex Cora.

No offense intended to Alex Cora, who is an excellent defender and at least has walked once or twice in his career. Oh, and also has put up a couple decent seasons.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but over the last three years

He has a .296/.338/.429 (.767 OPS) in 1343 PAs, split 55/45 between MLB and AAA.

He won't be a star, but he should be a servicable major league starter at 2B.

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what is wrong with you people

someone puts a lie on here and of course instead of being skeptical, since IT DIDN'T HAPPEN you sheep start analyzing the trade for it's worth.

Stop putting false trades on here, I have seen 3 in the past week and of course each one is quickly denied by one of the teams, but you guys start talking about the trade like it is just a done deal since some moron posted it on here.

Just because you put something first doesn't make you cool, it makes you an irresponsible idiot.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 10, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who shat in your mug and said it was a shake?

by elrey34 on Jan 10, 2008 3:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what

shut up...go make up some rumors about a 5-way deal that will have bedard, johan and blanton all end up in PinStripes...everyone on here woudl believe it if you just say a source told you so.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 10, 2008 3:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what a lovely young man you are

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 10, 2008 3:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you have against Mitch Mustain?

by mroak89 on Jan 10, 2008 7:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

I just am homophobic

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 11, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And apparently

Averse to rational opinion.

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Jan 12, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dang

I was hoping the Cubs could at least snag Tyler Colvin in the package.

by colinadam on Jan 9, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm an idiot

Should have said the O's snag Colvin, the Cubs already have him lol

by colinadam on Jan 9, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rich Hill

if he was part of the deal that would of plummetted his value imo going from the NL to the AL

by High Heater on Jan 9, 2008 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Marshall

I'm not impressed with this haul. I've never been a Sean Marshall believer. He may have finished with a sub 4.00 ERA this year, but his peripherals don't support it. The AL East will chew him up. Marshall will be nothing more than a warm body for a few years.

by McLovin on Jan 9, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

the deal wouldn't be about Marshall

but Gallagher and Cedeno...

of course this deal isn't official...

by SLK on Jan 9, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I like Gallagher OK enough I guess. But I consider Cedeno a non-entity. Find me a player that was healthy and hit in the neighborhood of .245/.271/.339 and still went on to be an above average player in the last twenty years and maybe I'll change my mind.

So it basically a couple years of a innings sponging from Marshall (likely a 4.5-5.0 ERA) and the upside of Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts. I'm not impressed.

by McLovin on Jan 9, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jay bell?

it's going to be tough to find someone who wasn't that good during a season who was trotted out there repeatedly like cedeno was but jay bell comes to my mind, for reasons i really can't discern, when i think of cedeno.

by larry on Jan 9, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

found a few

Here is a list of good players who had a season of BA < .250, OBP < .280 and SLG < .350 in one of their first three seasons:

Sammy Sosa
Brandon Inge
Paul Konerko
Brandon Phillips
Derrek Lee
Jermaine Dye
Tony Graffanino
Corey Patterson
Gary Matthews Jr
Brett Boone
Carlos Delgado
Dante Bichette
Craig Biggio

by Kanst42 on Jan 9, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: list

I'm not going to check all your guys... I started from the bottom and found Carlos Delgado only had 91 atbats in his season. Biggio around 120. Bichette around 140. Obviously I meant a more substantial sample. Ronny had over 500 abs. I'm not going to say that's the cutoff, but 300+ would be more fair.

Let's also remember that for whatever odd reason Ronny has been an awful hitter everywhere but AAA Iowa during his professional league career. He also doesn't have the physical profile of a Derrek Lee or Paul Konerko so I'm not sure how useful those comps are.

by McLovin on Jan 9, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

should have started at the top

sosa.

by larry on Jan 9, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was too lazy to look at AB's

But lets say we cut it off at like 300 at bats and look at middle infielder types I still end up with:

Alex Gonzalez
Brandon Phillips
Tony Graffanino
Jack Wilson

Now mind you I dont really like Ronny Cedeno I just figured I would come up with some names.

by Kanst42 on Jan 9, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rotation

How is the O's rotation going to shape up in the spring? Are Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera, and Marshall locks with Patton, Gallagher, Olson, Liz, and Penn fighting it out for the 5th spot? Should be interesting.

by Harold Baines on Jan 9, 2008 9:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plus Albers

That's 10 guys for 5 spots, so Norfolk should be pretty well stacked.

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

forgot about him.

by Harold Baines on Jan 9, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How legit is orioleshangout?

Because this is not being reported on any major site, and Rotoworld is usually the first (or one of the first) to break news like this.

by rmande09 on Jan 9, 2008 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pretty legit

They broke the Tejada trade a few hours before it was anywhere else.

Of course, they aren't subject to the same journalistic reputational concerns that established news sources are, so I wouldn't call this a done deal yet.

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Orioleshangout

I haven't gone there for a while, but my impression is still that it's reasonably good, but not definitive -- there are people on there who sometimes get inside info, but (a) sometimes that info doesn't pan out, even if it's legit (i.e. a deal like this could be almost done but never get finalized due to an inability to work out details like cash involved or something like that) and (b) sometimes people are just pretending to have inside info to jerk the board around.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Jan 9, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Orioles Beat Reporter Says...

Very inaccurate

In a span of about five minutes, I've been buried by e-mails - including one from Baseball America - and phone calls checking to see if the Brian Roberts deal to the Cubs is official.

A team spokesman said he just contacted president Andy MacPhail, who insisted that the rumor is "very inaccurate." The Sun's Dan Connolly just spoke to MacPhail, who said nothing has changed since last night.

I'll keep you posted, of course, if anything develops.

by dkdc on Jan 9, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

DeRosa

While I like the deal on the Cubs side, giving up a potential #4 starter (Gallagher), a fringe #5 starter (Marshall), and Cedeno (needed a change of scenery), I have to agree with the other posters when I ask what this does to DeRosa. Does he become a super utilityman, giving Roberts, ARam, Fuku, Soriano, and even Lee a day off here and there? The Cubs need to upgrade the SS position over the 2B position. DeRosa's .290-10-70 is an above average line as a 2B, and I know he played a little SS in Texas, but he can't play 150 games there. 50 SB at the top of this order intrigues me, but why replace DeRosa when Theriot is the one who needed to be replaced?

by goose102977 on Jan 9, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gallagher has the stuff and ability

to be better than a 4..

he's a 3, who leans toward the front rather than a 4 who leans toward the middle.

He is the Cubs best pitching prospect. I'd give him a 7 on jpahk's scale.

Which is like De Los Santos and that kind of player.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 9, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Gallagher is potentially a #3, therefore you should probably ignore the rest of my post since I have lost all creditability. How dare I say a #4? What was Veal before 2007? What is Veal now? The point of my post was DeRosa.

by goose102977 on Jan 9, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

De Los Santos >>>>> Gallagher

by quite a bit

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 9, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

let's not go too overboard.

I'd take FDLS over Gallagher straight-up in a second, based on ceiling alone, but Gallagher is only 1.5 months older, is far more polished, and has dominated AA, had AAA success, and has already had his first cup of coffee. FDLS has yet to venture past A+. I would tend to agree with you, but it's a matter of degrees and what you prefer in a prospect, not a disparity of "quite a bit."

by PrincetonCubs on Jan 9, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My take

As a Cubs fan, I hate this deal. I really do. Let me start on the other side. Having lived in Maryland for much of my life, I'd be somewhat excited to see some quality young talent at OPACY in the near future, and this trade would help in that. I think this would be a heck of a deal for the Orioles. Gallagher, IMO, is one of the more underrated prospects out there. I think BA said he's a potential decent 2, or something to the effect. No matter what, here's a kid that has a good curve to go with his 2 seamer. LR had him throwing sliders last year, I think, which was foolish. His curve is good (I believe some reports a year or so ago placed it on Hill's level). Even if he's "only" a 3 projection, that's still good. I've always liked Marshall more than most. But at worst, he's a capable back end option. I think Cedeno is a gamble here for the O's, but I guess they could use a shortstop. I'm not a fan of Ronny, never was. Pitching has value.

My worry from the Cubs side is three-fold. First, Brian Roberts himself. I tend to think his "real" numbers are somewhere between his 06/07 production. If that's the case, I don't buy that he's a significant enough upgrade over Mark DeRosa to warrant (and this is part 2 of my concern) thinning out the value at the top of the system without a big upgrade. Look, I want Soriano moved down in the lineup as much as the next guy, but the chances of Roberts giving us a significantly better average/OBP out of the leadoff spot than Soriano this past year? Slim, IMO. Gallagher is arguably our top trading chip that's in the minors. There will be holes that develop, and I hate to be stuck in a position where we are hoping for guys to develop so that we can have better trading chips. I mean, in AA/AAA, we would have Colvin/Veal/Samardzija as top chips. Not exactly a pretty threesome unless all three take steps forward. The final aspect of the deal I don't like is that it thins out the pitching depth at the top. Right now, Marquis/Dempster may look as good as some of the FA options, but it isn't a pretty tandem. Gallagher could back that up. Without Gallagher/Marshall, we're left with Kevin Hart (56 innings in AAA isn't much, but it does show he needs some more work as a starter), Mark Hollimon (very fringy back end type), Angel Guzman (can he stay healthy), Donald Veal (can he maintain his performance in the 2nd half), Jeff Samardzija (a lot of work), and guys like Mitch Atkins (fringy back end profile) and Justin Berg (probably better off as a middle reliever).

by toonsterwu on Jan 9, 2008 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Roberts' average OBP the last 4 years

is more than 30 points higher than that of Soriano. I'd say there's a damn good chance of him giving a significantly better OBP out of the leadoff spot than Soriano.

by patsfan on Jan 10, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trend arguments

I buy trend arguments if there's a consistency in results that appear. That is, if the numbers are close. But Roberts OBP has fluctuated the last 4 years.

.344/.387/.347/.377

While I'm not the most knowledgeable on the relevancy of a batter's BABIP, it is interesting to note that his big years in 05/07 were when his BABIP was higher (.343/.329) and in 04/06 he had a BABIP's of .310/.315. Now, I can buy 04 as some sort of first year as starter thing, and I think most people agree that his 05 power is unlikely to happen again, and thus why I think his "real" numbers are somewhere between his 06/07 numbers. Another interesting note is that his big years have come when he was more of a flyball hitter.

by toonsterwu on Jan 10, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cedeno rebuttal

Year PA BA OBP SLG Team
2001 292 253 284 341 Bal
2002 149 227 308 297 Bal

This guy didn't start out his career too great.

by doubledribble on Jan 9, 2008 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cedeno rebuttal part 2

"Find me a player that was healthy and hit in the neighborhood of .245/.271/.339 and still went on to be an above average player in the last twenty years and maybe I'll change my mind."

Check out 4 of Vizquels first 5 years in the majors.

It is really not that hard to find decent-to-good middle infielders who didn't hit much early in their careers.

by doubledribble on Jan 9, 2008 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

"It is really not that hard to find decent-to-good middle infielders who didn't hit much early in their careers."

It's not too hard to find ones that struggled early and went on to suck too. The Orioles are selling high on Roberts. They shouldn't have to settle for a player with that big a question mark with the bat. If the Cubs want a reliever like Jamie Walker for Cedeno that would be more even value.

sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 on Jan 9, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a Cubs fan

If I had any say, and if the Orioles offered Jamie Walker for Ronny Cedeno, I'd do that instantly. I think Ronny may yet turn it around though I've never been a huge fan, Ronny may end up better than Theriot. But Lou seems to prefer Theriot to the extent that I don't know if Ronny will get a fair chance here at short (all the OF talk with Cedeno from earlier). Our pen only has Scott Eyre as a lefty right now. Adding Jamie Walker would really shore up that area, and combined with our righty options, I'd be real happy with our pen, even though who closes is still a bit of a question.

by toonsterwu on Jan 9, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brian Roberts

Your benchmark seems to be 610 OPS
Roberts first 861 at bats - 664 OPS
Brandon Inge first 840 at bats - 562

by LindInMoskva on Jan 10, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a Baltimore resident

It's going to be a long year watching O's in 2008. I'm not O's fan or something like that, but Nats are going to be more interesting than O's

by shakezula on Jan 9, 2008 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Terrible

If this deal is actual, I think it's terrible for the O's. I wasnt enthused about the Tejada trade, but that one was way better than this. An all-star caliber 2Bman should net at least 1 legit top prospect. I agree w whoever said Gallagher was a #4, Marshall a fringe #5 and Cedeno was a utility guy. This isnt going the help the O's in any way except cutting salary. And Roberts was a fan favorite, an Oriole kind of player. If the Mitchell Report had anything to do w doing this deal at all, that's even more stupid. IF they trade Bedard, then they may end up w the worst roster in MLB. There'll be lots more empty seats at OPACY. Except when the Sox or Yanks are in town - then it will be even more like a home game for the visiting club.

by rhd on Jan 9, 2008 8:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think

your post makes it seem like the Orioles netted a top prospect in the Tejada trade. It comes down to how you view Patton/Gallagher. I think John overrates Patton, which he seems to admit might be the case. Patton's stuff is very fringy, and I'm not sure he's going to be enough of an innings eater to be considered a 3. Maybe I'm overrating Gallagher, but I think a fair case can be made that Gallagher is at the very least on Patton's level. He's arguably got a better fastball/breaking ball combination than Patton. I forget Patton's third pitch right now, but Gallagher's change is decent and he's worked with a slider and 4-seamer before. Gallagher's control has also improved since his first taste of AA, and his body seems more likely to chew up innings, although body type isn't the best way to make an assessment.

I mean, for all the love that some folks give to Jair Jurrjens (and I like him a lot as well), Gallagher arguably has equal value to Jair, but with a higher floor and lower ceiling.

by toonsterwu on Jan 9, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

As I said, I was not enthused w the Tejada trade either. But that trade was better for several reasons.

True, the level of talent of the players the O's got in each deal was similar, but at least they got more players in the Tejada deal and thus more chances of 'striking oil'. Plus, after you've already made 1 'quantity' deal, the incremental benefit you get from another 'quantity' deal gets less. You can only play so many players on one team at one time.

Both players were signed thru 2009. But Tejada was owed $26 mil as opposed to 14.3 for Roberts. So, they saved a lot more money there. Really, dealing Tejada was more of a salary dump; there was neither as much incentive nor ability to get quality back as there was w Roberts.

Roberts is probably an above-average 2Bman whereas most Tejada think Tejada is a below average SS now. Roberts is a year younger and his production has been steady, whereas Tejada's seems to be declining. Roberts is a fan favorite, whereas Tejada has worn out his welcome to a great extent.

I havent gauged the reaction of O's fans yet, but I would expect many if not most will be at least a little upset that they didnt get more in return.

by rhd on Jan 9, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

O's supposedly asking more...?

Read somewhere that the O's are requiring that one of Rich Hill, Tyler Colvin, or Felix Pie be in the deal. I think if any of those three are involved, it is a good deal for the O's.

by thowinsmoke on Jan 9, 2008 8:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

There were

a couple comments along those lines, but most of the indications are that Hendry likely wouldn't move any of the three.

Only time will tell, though. I already don't like the rumored deal as is for the Cubs. If we added any one of the those three, I'd really be a bit ticked.

by toonsterwu on Jan 9, 2008 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs