league draft / the full monty

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 10:49 AM EST

my league just finished our minor league draft and i figured i'd post the results, for purposes of discussion and so you kids who are prepping for similar type deals can get a sense of the market.

see this previous diary for full context. quick summary: player pool is mostly 2007 draftees; some premium on quick development. as noted, i am the Incident.

Round 1
1 (1) Bail Bonds - Matt Wieters, C (BAL)
2 (2) Galacticos - Mike Moustakas, SS (KCR)
3 (3) Rattlers - David Price, P (TBD)
4 (4) Galacticos - Jason Heyward, OF (ATL)
5 (5) Rattlers - Matt LaPorta, OF (MIL)
6 (6) Galacticos - Jarrod Parker, P (ARI)
7 (7) Galacticos - Rick Porcello, P (DET)
8 (8) Polygamists - Josh Vitters, 3B (CHC)
9 (9) Incident - Kosuke Fukudome, OF (CHC)
10 (10) Winos - Michael Burgess, OF (WAS)
11 (11) MoneyShots - Beau Mills, 3B (CLE)
12 (12) Galacticos - Ross Detwiler, P (WAS)
13 (13) Drunks - Hiroki Kuroda, P (LAD)
14 (14) Winos - Casey Weathers, P (COL)
15 (15) Incident - Nick Noonan, 2B (SFG)
16 (16) Egomaniacs - Jordan Walden, P (ANA)

Round 2
1 (17) Bail Bonds - Josh Smoker, P (WAS)
2 (18) Drunks - Josh Donaldson, C (CHC)
3 (19) Bail Bonds - Cole Rohrbough, P (ATL)
4 (20) Knights - Aaron Poreda, P (CHW)
5 (21) Ducks - Todd Frazier, SS (CIN)
6 (22) Incident - Tim Alderson, P (SFG)
7 (23) Incident - Oscar Tejeda, SS (BOS)
8 (24) 33's - Joe Savery, P (PHI)
9 (25) Winos - Matt Latos, P (SDP)
10 (26) Bail Bonds - Michael Main, P (TEX)
11 (27) Cannons - Madison Bumgarner, P (SFG)
12 (28) Ducks - Kellen Kulbacki, OF (SDP)
13 (29) Galacticos - Devin Mesoraco, C (CIN)
14 (30) Drunks - Daniel Moskos, P (PIT)
15 (31) Incident - Jesus Montero, C (NYY)
16 (32) Ducks - Max Scherzer, P (ARI)

Round 3
1 (33) Bail Bonds - Tony Thomas, 2B (CHC)
2 (34) Winos - Nick Hagadone, P (BOS)
3 (35) Polygamists - Mat Gamel, 3B (MIL)
4 (36) Knights - Matt Mangini, 3B (SEA)
5 (37) Rattlers - Blake Beavan, P (TEX)
6 (38) Galacticos - Anthony Rizzo, 1B (BOS)
7 (39) Galacticos - Matt Dominguez, 3B (FLA)
8 (40) Winos - Brandon Hicks, SS (ATL)
9 (41) Polygamists - Phillippe Aumont, P (SEA)
10 (42) Winos - Brett Cecil, P (TOR)
11 (43) Ducks - James Simmons, P (OAK)
12 (44) Ducks - Will Middlebrooks, 3B (BOS)
13 (45) MoneyShots - Kevin Ahrens, 3B (TOR)
14 (46) Ducks - Wendell Fairley, OF (SFG)
15 (47) Incident - Andrew Lambo, OF (LAD)
16 (48) Egomaniacs - Ben Revere, OF (MIN)

Round 4
1 (49) Winos - Matt Whitney, 1B (WAS)
2 (50) Winos - Damon Sublett, 2B (NYY)
3 (51) Winos - Clayton Conner, 3B (ARI)
4 (52) Fanatics - Corey Brown, OF (OAK)
5 (53) Incident - Eugenio Velez, 2B (SFG)
6 (54) Knights - Chris Withrow, P (LAD)
7 (55) Knights - Jordan Zimmerman, P (WAS)
8 (56) MoneyShots - Shelby Ford, 2B (PIT)
9 (57) Bad Boys - Brandon Waring, 3B (CIN)
10 (58) Rattlers - Nick Evans, 1B (NYM)
11 (59) Cannons - Pete Kozma, SS (STL)
12 (60) Cannons - Clayton Mortensen, P (STL)
13 (61) Polygamists - Engel Beltre, OF, (TEX)
14 (62) Knights - Jonathon Lucroy, C (MIL)
15 (63) Incident - Dan Duffy, P (KCR)
16 (64) Incident - Julio Teheran, P (ATL)

Round 5
1 (65) Bail Bonds - Josh Reddick, OF (BOS)
2 (66) Egomaniacs - Bryan Morris, P (LAD)
3 (67) Polygamists - Chorye Spoone, P, BAL
4 (68) Fanatics - Mitch Canham, C (SDP)
5 (69) Winos - Daniel Dorn, OF (CIN)
6 (70) Cannons - Neftali Soto, SS (CIN)
7 (71) Cannons - J.P. Arencibia, C (TOR)
8 (72) Polygamists - Bud Norris, P, (HOU)
9 (73) Cannons - Gaby Sanchez, 1B (FLA)
10 (74) 33's - Masahide Kobayashi, P (CLE)
11 (75) Winos - Jack McGeary, P (WAS)
12 (76) MoneyShots - Felipe Paulino, P (HOU)
13 (77) Ducks - James Adkins, P (LAD)
14 (78) Drunks - Brandon Snyder, 1B (BAL)
15 (79) Incident - Julio Borbon, OF (TEX)
16 (80) Egomaniacs - Sean Doolittle, 1B (OAK)

Round 6
1 (81) Bail Bonds - Jose Ceda, P (CHC)
2 (82) MoneyShots - Eddie Kunz, P (NYM)
3 (83) Polygamists - Blake Wood, P (KCR)
4 (84) Fanatics - Brian Rike, OF (COL)
5 (85) Winos - Zack Braddock, P (MIL)
6 (86) Incident - Yasuhiko Yabuta, P (KCR)
7 (87) Knights - Daniel Payne, OF (SDP)
8 (88) MoneyShots - Brant Rustich, P (NYM)
9 (89) Bad Boys - Jaime Pedroza, SS (LAD)
10 (90) Bad Boys - Celeb Gindl, OF (MIL)
11 (91) Cannons - Eric Young Jr., 2B (COL)
12 (92) Ducks - Wes Roemer, P (ARI)
13 (93) Lumberjacks - Gregory Desme, OF, OAK
14 (94) Drunks - Emilio Bonifacio, 2B (ARI)
15 (95) Polygamists - Jose Martinez, OF, CHW
16 (96) Polygamists - John Shelby, OF, CHW

Round 7
1 (97) Bail Bonds - Jonathan Still, C (BOS)
2 (98) Incident - Jake Arrieta, P (BAL)
3 (99) Polygamists - Kelvin DeLeon, OF, NYY
4 (100) Fanatics - James Skelton, C (DET)
5 (101) Winos - Michael McCardell, P (MIN)
6 (102) Egomaniacs - Andrew Bailey, P (OAK)
7 (103) Knights - Ryan Pope, P (NYY)
8 (104) MoneyShots - Kazuo Fukumori, P (TEX)
9 (105) Bad Boys - Clint Robinson, 1B (KCR)
10 (106) 33's - Nick Schmidt, P (SDP)
11 (107) Winos - Eric Sogard, 2B (SDP)
12 (108) Egomaniacs - Jordan Parraz, OF (HOU)
13 (109) Drunks - Brian Duensing, P (MIN)
14 (110) Egomaniacs - Jayson Nix, 2B (COL)
15 (111) Egomaniacs - Ed Easley, C (ARI)

Round 8
1 (112) Bail Bonds - Rhyne Hughes, 1B (TBD)
2 (113) Polygamists - Jeff Marquez, P (NYY)
3 (114) Fanatics - Fernando Perez, OF (TAM)
4 (115) Egomaniacs - Allen Craig, 3B (STL)
5 (116) Bad Boys - Andrew Brackman, P (NYY)
6 (117) 33's - Barry Enright, P (ARI)
7 (118) Ducks - Drew Cumberland, SS (SDP)
8 (119) Drunks - Brian Bixler, SS (PIT)
9 (120) Egomaniacs - Jason Pridie, OF (MIN)

Round 9
1 (121) Fanatics - Carmen Angelini, SS (NYY)
2 (122) Bad Boys - Neil Ramirez, P (TEX)
3 (123) 33's - Ryan Dent, SS/OF (BOS)
4 (124) Egomaniacs - Danny Worth, SS (DET)

Round 10
1 (125) Bad Boys - Kyle Lotzkar, P (CIN)
2 (126) Egomaniacs - Colten Willems, P (WAS)

Round 11
1 (127) Bad Boys - Nick Blackburn, P (MIN)

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Comments

Arieta

With all the crapola being drafted earlier, how does Jake Arieta last to round 7?

Brackman's got the injury but he's still superior prospect to a Shelby Ford...

by McLovin on Jan 9, 2008 11:03 AM EST reply actions

arrieta

With all the crapola being drafted earlier, how does Jake Arieta last to round 7?

i am not sure, but i am not complaining. i figured he actually got a decent amount of hype from his AFL, and then he's on all the orioles lists. so.

i was originally planning on taking zimmerman(n?) and mortensen back-to-back at the end of the fourth, but the bastards vacuumed them up. i probably should have let velez go longer and taken one of them, but i've developed this weird preoccupation with velez. i usually draft according to the "just take the guy you'll be most pissed off to lose" rule.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

who has yu darvish

if fukudome went in the first round, i'd think darvish is worth a late round flier in case he ever gets to the US.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 9, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

only signed guys.

players have to be signed to a MLB contract to be owned. no college players, no darvish.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

one thing to note

another element of this league's rules that i should probably have mentioned is that there are fixed roster slots that you need to fill, even in the minors. you have 25 minor league players but it's not just a big sack, you need to have 2 catchers, 2 1Bs, 2 2Bs, etc. not quite literally - you can also put your inactive major league players in those slots. but if you don't have minor leaguers to fill the space it restricts what you can do with your major league players, since all roster spots need to be filled every week.

so positions that suck, like C and 2B in particular, you tend to see prospects drafted who wouldn't otherwise get any attention just because you gotta have somebody. that also encouraged me to take noonan as high as i did, although i think i probably would have done it anyway, i'm getting a really good vibe off him.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

EYJ

is an example of this. I would have certainly preferred to have Arrieta there, but I needed to grab a 2B so that I wouldn't be required to sign 2 mediocre mlb 2B's later. (I'm the Cannons by the way.)

by drob320 on Jan 9, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

I am the Ducks

very happy with how things worked out, I didn't have a first round pick but had 3 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders...

2.5 - Todd Frazier, SS (CIN)
2.12 - Kellen Kulbacki, OF (SDP)
2.16 - Max Scherzer, P (ARI)
3.11 - James Simmons, P (OAK)
3.12 - Will Middlebrooks, 3B (BOS)
3.14 - Wendell Fairley, OF (SFG)
5.13 - James Adkins, P (LAD)
6.12 - Wes Roemer, P (ARI)
8.7 - Drew Cumberland, SS (SDP)

by Deech on Jan 9, 2008 2:58 PM EST reply actions

Who the heck Kellen Kubacki

I am not a super prospect guy but I know everyone else you drafted and as soon as I finish typing this going to figure out who he is.........

by novaoakland on Jan 10, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions

Kulbacki

pretty high draft pick out of college, strong debut, solid mechanics and his swing...could move fast, I like his power potential as well

by Deech on Jan 10, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Aumont going pretty low eh...

by Fett42 @ Minor League Ball on Jan 9, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions

wow

Aumont was a steal at 41.

So were Blake "Helium" Wood and Neil Ramirez later in the draft.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 9, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions

true

generally i like to stick to pitchers who i know where their secondary pitch is going to come from, but i wasn't really expecting aumont to drop that far past the other first-round preppies.

neil ramirez was definitely a good value at the end, since at various points in the draft season he was considered a first-round preppie himself, and those high school pitcher rankings change around so much before and after the draft there's no reason he can't come back. on the other hand, i was personally scared of him because he has the highest elbow in history

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

yikes

I didn't know about that. Although Anthony Reyes and Adam Miller might be a challenger for that...

Still probably decent value late in the draft.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 9, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

surprised

that no one picked justin jackson.

by bk11 on Jan 9, 2008 9:22 PM EST reply actions

Jackson

I would have picked Tolisano or Jackson, but they're just too far away.
In our league format a player only has 3 years of minor league eligibility before you have to give him a major league contract.
So there is a premium on guys who are closer to the big leagues that can give you production while still on cheap rookie deals.
That's why I think Fukudome should have gone before any high school player. He's going to be producing for your team for 3 years at a minimum salary.

by GregJP on Jan 10, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

a lot of scouts seem skeptical that jackson will ever hit, and even if he does i think it's going to take a lot longer than the lambo-tejeda timeline i outlined in a comment below, which kind of takes all the fun out of it as far as this league setup goes.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

pretty good draft

i like your emphasis on upside (Alderson, Montero, Teheran). Is this a keeper league or single-season. If this is single-season you might fare better in a keeper with this team, but still very good drafting considering you got a low pick

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Jan 9, 2008 9:45 PM EST reply actions

Wily Mo

Is this the league you were talking about in your Version 1 Prospect List?

Based on the comments from some of your league-mates, can you help explain why you think Alderson and Tejeda (2nd) and Lambo (3rd) will make it to the bigs in less than 3 years?

by GammonsIsGod on Jan 10, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions

yes, it is.

this is the draft i was acting all secret-agent about. if you look towards the bottom of community prospect #57 comments (one diary up), i've posted the current version of my top 100 there unredacted.

with alderson's freaky command i think could make the majors in 2 years easily, maybe even less, assuming his arm survives his weird-ass motion. i was originally put off him completely because of the way he pulls his elbow way up in his arm action, but after spending 20 minutes staring at the clips of him on the pitching analysis sites i've tentatively decided that he pulls the elbow back down again before he really starts turning the shoulders and torquing it, and so he might be ok after all. o'leary would call that a smoltz. i am totally an armchair analyst, though, and have absolutely no credentials to even be talking about this.

lambo and tejeda may not make the majors in 3 years. but if guys can really hit, i think they progress faster than people sometimes assume. i see both of them in low-A next year, full year. then starting in A+ the year after, maybe up to AA midyear. starting in AA the year after that, and up to the majors in the second half of '10. roughly. at that point, if they're the players i think they are, i'll know what i have and will be able to sign them to cheap 5-year contract extensions, as per the league rules. i'm drafting them in hopes of that extension period, not for the first 3 years. it's not ideal, but most of the prime hitters come out of high school (or international) and in this league this is the only way to get them.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting Setup

I hadn't heard the contract extension part of the league. That would explain why the selections don't follow a typical 'prospect ranking' system.

In my league, we get to keep 12 players in our minors for as long as we want - one guy selected Delmon Young while he was in high school.

Other than your own, what picks do you like and what picks do you hate?

by GammonsIsGod on Jan 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

let's see

we'll do 'like' first.

Round 1
1 (1) Bail Bonds - Matt Wieters, C (BAL)
5 (5) Rattlers - Matt LaPorta, OF (MIL)

like is a strong word in the first round. all of the players, at least in the top half, were outright good, and hard to argue with. i'll point out these two - wieters because i think he was the right pick at #1, and laporta because i probably would have taken him #2 so it's a good get at 5.

Round 2
3 (19) Bail Bonds - Cole Rohrbough, P (ATL)
10 (26) Bail Bonds - Michael Main, P (TEX)
16 (32) Ducks - Max Scherzer, P (ARI)

i don't like rohrbough's mechanics so that one's borderline, but it's hard to argue with his results so worth a try. came very close to taking main over tejeda; only reason why not was i didn't want two pitchers there. maybe dumb. also not sure about his motion; arm action's fine but he seems to be all arm. i've seen harden comps; that's bad. but, again, results. then scherzer, same deal as rorhbough. so, basically, all three of these were too risky for me, but all three have more than enough talent to make that look cowardly fast.

Round 3
1 (33) Bail Bonds - Tony Thomas, 2B (CHC)
3 (35) Polygamists - Mat Gamel, 3B (MIL)
5 (37) Rattlers - Blake Beavan, P (TEX)
9 (41) Polygamists - Phillippe Aumont, P (SEA)
14 (46) Ducks - Wendell Fairley, OF (SFG)

i like beavan and aumont more or less as well as the other prepsters so getting them a round later is nice. i was totally taking fairley but the ducks snaked me; my only hesitation on him is he may not move as fast as some of the others, but that could also be wrong. gamel and thomas can just hit, although they both may have some defensive-position issues.

Round 4
6 (54) Knights - Chris Withrow, P (LAD)
7 (55) Knights - Jordan Zimmerman, P (WAS)
12 (60) Cannons - Clayton Mortensen, P (STL)
14 (62) Knights - Jonathon Lucroy, C (MIL)

some good pitching - i totally wanted both those college guys but waited too long.

Round 5
4 (68) Fanatics - Mitch Canham, C (SDP)
6 (70) Cannons - Neftali Soto, SS (CIN)
16 (80) Egomaniacs - Sean Doolittle, 1B (OAK)

Round 6
1 (81) Bail Bonds - Jose Ceda, P (CHC)

Round 7
15 (111) Egomaniacs - Ed Easley, C (ARI)

Round 8
9 (120) Egomaniacs - Jason Pridie, OF (MIN)

Round 9
2 (122) Bad Boys - Neil Ramirez, P (TEX)
3 (123) 33's - Ryan Dent, SS/OF (BOS)

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 11:30 AM EST reply actions

crap.

reply-to-this failure! i'm so embarrassed.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

as for 'hate'

i'm gonna wait on that for now. there was nothing too bad here. you should have seen this league two years ago; but they've really pulled it together.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Cool

You can change 'hate' to 'players one should avoid'.

Zimmerman and Mortensen look like nice college pitchers who started well in the minors. They seem like guys I can select at the end of my minor league draft this season. Thanks - I can load up on hitters at the beginning now.

I don't think any other owners in my league use this site, and they continually wonder how I find guys.

by GammonsIsGod on Jan 10, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Hate

Admit it, you "hated" my Revere pick. :-)

by GregJP on Jan 10, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

nope.

not hate. if i put all the picks on a scale of love to hate, with love at 100 and hate at 0, revere at the end of the third is probably at around 35. not something i probably would have done, but not a waste of time. depends on strategy, needs, etc. to get listed in the hate section it would have to be down in the teens.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

yo

I didn't take LaPorta because people I've talked to think he's going to have contact issues as a pro. He might have 40 HR power, but he also might be a .250 hitter, and I don't know if he'll draw enough walks to compensate. Factor in that he's an OF until further notice, and I just went for more upside.

by phuturephillies on Jan 10, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

sure

i don't dislike your moustakas/heyward attack. i love both of those guys. i just wouldn't have done it, because i think laporta can produce similar enough hitting value which is more certain and will come sooner.

we'll see i guess, but - i mean i know it was college, but it's hard for me to believe that a guy who had a 55:16 BB:K (no that's not backwards) his senior year is going to have a catastrophic contact issue. maybe he won't hit .300, but i don't think he's going to hit .250. split the difference, say .275, with walks and 40 homers - bob's your uncle.

but the proof's in the pudding, as always. anyway. i have fukudome. time to buy the jersey.

by wily mo on Jan 10, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions