Community Prospect #56
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:26 AM EST
153 comments
here's a link to the last poll with some cute commentary.
LIST
1. Jay Bruce OF CIN
2. Evan Longoria 3B TB
3. Colby Rasmus OF STL
4. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
5. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
6. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
7. Cameron Maybin OF FLA
8. Homer Bailey RHP CIN
9. David Price LHP TB
10. Andy LaRoche 3B LAD
11. Jacob McGee LHP TB
12. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
13. Travis Snider OF TOR
14. Brandon Wood 3B/SS CAL
15. Matt Wieters C BAL
16. Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS
17. (T) Joey Votto 1B CIN
17. (T) Andrew McCutchen OF PIT
19. Wade Davis RHP TB
20. (T) Chase Headley 3B SD
20. (T) Reid Brignac SS TB
22. Daric Barton 1B OAK
23. Rick Porcello RHP DET
24. Franklin Morales LHP COL
25. Jeff Clement C SEA
26. Matt LaPorta OF/1B MIL
27. Mike Moustakas SS KC
28. Chris Marrero OF WAS
29. Fernando Martinez OF NYM
30. Matt Antonelli 2B SD
31. Desmond Jennings OF TB
32. Carlos Gonzalez OF OAK
33. Jason Heyward OF ATL
34. Fautino de los Santos RHP OAK
35. Jed Lowrie SS BOS
36. Angel Villalona 3B SF
37. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
38. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
39. Carlos Triunfel SS SEA
40. Steven Pearce 1B/OF PIT
41. Jordan Schafer OF ATL
(Kosuke Fukudome OF CHC)
42. Adam Miller RHP CLE
43. Nick Adenhart RHP CAL
44. Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
45. Austin Jackson OF NYY
46. Eric Hurley RHP TEX
47. Jose Tabata OF NYY
48. Geovany Soto C CHC
49. Lars Anderson 1B BOS
50. Chin-Lung Hu SS LA
51. Chris Davis 3B TEX
52. Luke Hochevar RHP KC
53. Jarrod Parker RHP ARI
54. Taylor Teagarden C TEX
55. Manny Parra LHP MIL
here's a sassy remark connecting the list to the polling section.
INSTRUCTIONSi will create 14 vote-thread comments, one for each prospect polled. please use the "reply to this" link on that comment to post a +1 message under the player you're voting for. (look and see how other people are doing it first if that's not clear.) REMEMBER TO USE THE REPLY-TO-THIS LINK, NOT THE REGULAR FORM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.
POLL 56
Josh Vitters 3B CHC
Deolis Guerra RHP NYM
Ross Detwiler LHP WAS
Hank Conger C CAL
Jordan Walden RHP CAL
Cole Rohrbough LHP ATL
Elvis Andrus SS TEX
James McDonald RHP LA
Neil Walker 3B PIT
Brent Lillibridge SS ATL
Ian Stewart 3B COL
Justin Masterson RHP BOS
Chris Carter 1B OAK
"Other"
Please look at this list and decide who you're voting for now, so you don't make any impulsive decisions down below. Also peruse the following "more candidates" section carefully to make sure there isn't an "other" vote you'd like to cast.
MORE CANDIDATES - PITCHERS
Hiroki Kuroda (2/38), Jair Jurrjens (0/51), Radhames Liz (1/50), Carlos Carrasco (1/49), Max Scherzer (0/49), Anthony Swarzak (3/47), Jeff Niemann, Scott Elbert, Dan Cortes, Alan Horne, Michael Bowden, Chris Volstad, Matt Harrison, Troy Patton, Will Inman, Jeremy Hellickson, Brad Lincoln, Jaime Garcia, Chuck Lofgren, Collin Balester, Sean Gallagher, Greg Reynolds, Jeff Manship, Donald Veal, Bryan Morris, Nick Hagadone, Brett Cecil, Aaron Poreda, Joe Savery, James Simmons, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Mortensen
Tim Alderson (1/54), Chris Tillman (1/49c), Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Kasey Kiker, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Butler, Michael Main, Omar Poveda, Neftali Feliz, Dellin Betances, Tommy Hanson, Tyler Robertson, Henry Sosa, Brandon Erbe, Kyle Drabek, Jeff Locke, Blake Beavan, Phillippe Aumont, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Latos, Josh Smoker, Chris Withrow, Dan Duffy, Julio Teheran
Jon Meloan, Casey Weathers, Dan Moskos, Chris Perez, Eduardo Morlan, Felipe Paulino del Guidice
MORE CANDIDATES - HITTERS
Brandon Jones (0/55), Beau Mills (0/54), Dexter Fowler (1/50), JR Towles (0/52), Tyler Colvin, Wes Hodges, Todd Frazier, Jordan Brown, Drew Stubbs, Chris Nelson, Nolan Reimold, Bryan Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Mat Gamel, Nate Schierholtz, Kellen Kulbacki, Justin Maxwell, Max Ramirez, Kyle Blanks, Josh Rodriguez, Michael Bourn, Tony Thomas Jr, Brandon Hicks
Bill Rowell (1/55), Michael Burgess (0/49), Nick Weglarz, Ryan Kalish, Gorkys Hernandez, Matt Sweeney, Hector Gomez, Jesus Montero, Adrian Cardenas, Gerardo Parra, Cedric Hunter, Nick Noonan, Oscar Tejeda, Kevin Ahrens, Matt Dominguez, Devin Mesoraco, Will Middlebrooks, Wendell Fairley, Andrew Lambo, Ben Revere, Neftali Soto, Engel Beltre
open.
0 recs |
153 comments
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VOTES - JOSH VITTERS 3B CHC
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by SLK on Jan 8, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 8, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by bobbymcnally on Jan 8, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by PrincetonCubs on Jan 8, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 9, 2008 6:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - DEOLIS GUERRA RHP NYM
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guerra
by KABOOM on Jan 8, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by Joy in Melville on Jan 8, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - ROSS DETWILER LHP WAS
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
=)
by PujolsJunkie on Jan 8, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by doublestix on Jan 8, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - HANK CONGER C ANA
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - JORDAN WALDEN RHP ANA
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by realityconquest on Jan 8, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - COLE ROHRBOUGH LHP ATL
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - ELVIS ANDRUS SS TEX
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by larryp2sickels on Jan 9, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - JAMES McDONALD RHP LA
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - NEIL WALKER 3B PIT
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
very interesting
by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - BRENT LILLIBRIDGE SS ATL
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - IAN STEWART 3B COL
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by jfish26101 on Jan 8, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by goalieguy on Jan 8, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - JUSTIN MASTERSON RHP BOS
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
and his H% and ERA are also deeply affected by the defense behind him and the field beneath him. when masterson gets to the show, he's going to have a hell of a coming out party.
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - CHRIS CARTER 1B OAK
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by FrazierFan on Jan 8, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
VOTES - OTHER
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Swarzak
by Diggity Dino on Jan 8, 2008 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
brett anderson
by Tomcats on Jan 8, 2008 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DISCUSSION
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
anyone have some information on elbert
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 9:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ok guys
by gatling on Jan 8, 2008 9:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
right there with you.
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
easy
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"we're sorry, our bad"
it's been a long night.
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you four neil walker guys
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hmm
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
The reason I keep voting Walker is that he is a 21 year old in AA who learned a new position and maintained a great batting eye (11.4 BB%). I expect his power numbers to increase as he gets older and as he gets more comfortable at 3B.
by gunkdog on Jan 8, 2008 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chuckling at this
I will say that the "Walker squad" made me go check him out again, and I was like, eh, not screaming out for me. Other than that he's not blocked (is Jeff King still around?). Can any of you guys describe what you see in him?
by siddfynch on Jan 8, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the case for Walker
Up until this year his offensive progress was marred by injuries and catcher stagnation. Once moved to third this off season he started off scortching at AA, and maintained solid stats until being promoted to AAA (which I can discount due to first full proseason fatigue)
As others noted he is still on the right side of the ARL curve.
You have to do some projecting with him, but there are good signs indicating that such projection is within him.
by SLK on Jan 8, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
basically, a lot of what SLK said. i think the guy is really going to hit. very strong amateur profile, and his bat really seemed to come around after the position change. his glovework is still a little shaky, but he's only been playing the hot corner for a year and he's a good athlete (he was recruited as a D-I wide receiver), so i'll give him some time to adjust to the defensive demands of the position.
basically, he's a very athletic switch-hitter who's shown the ability to smoke line drives and hit for power in AA at the age of 21. he's also got surprisingly solid command of the strike zone for somebody who was primarily regarded as a raw tools kid out of HS. is he perfect? no, of course not, but he's plenty better than the other guys on the ballot at this point.
here's the mrkupe smackdown between walker and headley from a few months back. it's chock full of the pluses and minuses for both of those guys. at the time, there was a little poll: headley or walker. walker won with 56% of the vote. and yet headley went on to the community list 30 places ago. um, whoops?
by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, good stuff
When reading Kupe's text, I pretty much wanted to race back here and vote for Walker. But it's worthing noting that the increased polish by Headley has resulted in a 200-pt difference in OPS at the same level for these guys. Is Walker's athleticism and upside enough to counterbalance this? That's a lot of OPS!
by siddfynch on Jan 8, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OPS
by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh also
a big +1 to that. (i assume you were talking about the mrkupe smackdown, not about my own little post.) i know it's time-consuming, but those smackdowns were really informative and generally awesome.
by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Overlord...
Can you present some data to support your assertion that GB% is a strong predictor of future success? And just to clarify, are you saying it is stronger than the traditional ratios involving BB, H and Ks, or just should be considered on par?
I have to admit, I don't pay attention to GB% ratios when evaluating pitchers, and I have a pretty good track record with pitchers, in general. However, there have been a few that I've missed, Webb being a big example of it.
I'm skeptical that GB% is a strong predictor of future success. Currently I use Dominance (K/(BB+H)), K/9, BB/9, and scouting, and that usually sifts out the better guys. But if using GB% helps to include some that would otherwise have been missed then I'd love to include it.
(it reminds me of the BABIP, GB% and LD% debate from a while back, and as in that discussion, I'm always looking for better ways to slice the stats to find prospects over suspects)
by beastball on Jan 8, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
no, the traditional metrics all have great value
the way that i use dominance is in the true sense of the word, not in the colloquial sense that we understand as a community. when masterson pitches, he dictates the contact that hitters make; they have very little influence in their at bats when he is at the top of his game. he might allow 10 hits once in a while, but i guarantee 9 of those hits won't touch grass more than 150 ft. from home plate. i believe that this type of pitcher is more likely to be a quality major leaguer than the tony butler/james mcdonald class of prospect, because while guys like masterson are more reliant on the field and the fielders, they are less affected by the change in quality of hitters from A to AA to MLB.
or at least that's the theory i operate under. i see mcdonald as a guy that is likely to get eaten up by MLB hitters, and in his minor league career, i haven't seen him have to adjust to hitters that are at or above his level of proficiency.
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
GB%
The potential outcomes are: walk, strikeout, ground ball, line drive, and fly ball.
Walks are the most negative as there is no hope of recording an out.
Strikeouts, conversely, are the most positive as there is virtually no chance of NOT recording an out.
Groundballs typically result in an out or single. Occassionally an infield single or double play will be recorded. I don't want to speculate as to the specific frequency a groundball turns into a single but intuitively, groundballs rarely turn into doubles.
Line drives run the gamut in that they can be a quick double play, single, double, triple, home run or an out.
Fly balls can turn into outs, singles, doubles, home runs and occassionally triples as well as the potential to advance a runner on a pop fly.
Again, I'm sure there is data relating to the frequency a fly ball turns into a double, but it should suffice to simply consider it in theory.
Given the potential outcomes, and rough likelihoods, we can approximate the value of a pitcher causing a walk, strikeout, groundball, line drive or fly ball. Walks and line drives are the worst. Fly balls and groundballs are next and strikeouts are the best. Considering the added negatives (from a pitching perspective) of a fly ball, a groundball seems more desirable.
by kschellenger on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
trust me, you NEED this book
i don't know whether you have it, but it doesn't sound like you fully grasp what's inside. in the stats section, for each team, for each batter and pitcher, the annual lists derived values from the previous season's batted balls (and events; ie. BB and K). the averages are condensed into 4 numbers: runs per GB, runs per LD, runs per FB, and runs per nonbatted ball. the league averages, for each statistic are .04, .39, .19, and .05, respectively. also given in the annual is total runs versus league average for each event over the course of the season.
by overlord on Jan 8, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HBT
by kschellenger on Jan 8, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
anti-deolis-guerra watch
Tim Alderson (1/54), Chris Tillman (1/49c), Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Kasey Kiker, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Butler, Michael Main, Omar Poveda, Neftali Feliz, Dellin Betances, Tommy Hanson, Tyler Robertson, Henry Sosa, Brandon Erbe, Kyle Drabek, Jeff Locke, Blake Beavan, Phillippe Aumont, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Latos, Josh Smoker, Chris Withrow, Dan Duffy, Julio Teheran
not much, in my opinion. all of these guys are good prospects, and so is guerra, but i don't think he's nearly as exceptional as people try to make out. i know guerra supporters love the ARL, but i honestly believe that if you put all of these guys in high-A at 18 they'd perform similarly, some of them a lot better. it's just rarely tested. when you're dealing with pitchers, the scouting profile matters much more than ARL.
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ive been voting
Id say that my only question about the other guys that are listed has been scouting reports. Most dont have one yet (Alderson, Main, et. al.) others are very mixed (Robertson, Sosa, Cahill, Anderson, etc.) or guys are underrated (Latos, Butler, Betences, etc.)
This is not to say that the reports on Guerra have all been sunshine and bunnies. When comparing reports from the major publications, I get the sense that a majority feel Guerra ends up reaching his potential (Im not saying this but its just what I infer from the readings), whereas with the others, the scouts arent as convinced.
Perhaps its just becuase Im a Mets fan and Im biased. However an 18 yr old who holds his own against older more advanced competition is worthy of my vote at this spot. I know its that whole ARL debate, but Im an ARL whore.
I also like alot of the other pitchers that you mentioned WMP, espeically Butler, Alderson and Betances so its not like I wouldnt vote for them.
Thats just my take on the situation. Take it for whats its worth; not very much lol.
by tbach81 on Jan 8, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you explain
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's because...
So, that's why I take hits into account. If a pitcher controls hits, then it's an indicator that he's a better pitcher.
by beastball on Jan 8, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hits
If pitchers did not have some control over hits, how would you justify the difference in hit rates for guys like Matt Cain and Carlos Silva? I don't think you can ascribe it exclusively to park factors.
by siddfynch on Jan 8, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks guys
I don't question H/9 value at the big league level but it seems that defense at the minor league level would vary to a much greater degree.
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
K% and BB%
by siddfynch on Jan 8, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like
by smittybanton on Jan 8, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC
So yeah, hits against a pitcher are much more important in the minors than in the majors. If you know how to adjust it helps the process as well, but a minor leaguer who gets hit hard in the minors will get hit even harder in the majors.
by Brickhaus on Jan 8, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised Stewart gets no real consideration
He has great makeup, quick hands, good pitch recognition, decent plate discipline (much better than a lot of the guys on the list already) and will be playing in Coors field. He is supposed to move to 2B where his bat if it develops could be on par with Utley or at least Uggla/KJ or better. He is still only 22 and people act like he should be an all-star already at the MLB level. His minor league line stands at: .295 .374 .514 .888 which is pretty darn good. Prospect fans certainly are a fickle bunch! :p
by jfish26101 on Jan 8, 2008 5:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Seems he was 5th on the BA's Rox list last year...
by jfish26101 on Jan 8, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cutaway
1. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
2. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
3. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
4. Homer Bailey RHP CIN
5. David Price LHP TB
6. Jacob McGee LHP TB
7. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
8. Wade Davis RHP TB
9. Rick Porcello RHP DET
10. Franklin Morales LHP COL
11. Fautino de los Santos RHP OAK
12. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
13. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
14. Adam Miller RHP CLE
15. Nick Adenhart RHP CAL
16. Eric Hurley RHP TEX
17. Luke Hochevar RHP KC
18. Jarrod Parker RHP ARI
19. Manny Parra LHP MIL
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and some analysis
GOOD
1. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
2. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
3. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
4. Homer Bailey RHP CIN
5. David Price LHP TB
6. Jacob McGee LHP TB
7. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
8. Wade Davis RHP TB
9. Rick Porcello RHP DET
10. Franklin Morales LHP COL
11. Fautino de los Santos RHP OAK
COASTING ON REP
12. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
13. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
14. Adam Miller RHP CLE
15. Nick Adenhart RHP CAL
16. Eric Hurley RHP TEX
17. Luke Hochevar RHP KC
GOOD AGAIN
18. Jarrod Parker RHP ARI
19. Manny Parra LHP MIL
kind of uncanny, really.
by wily mo on Jan 8, 2008 7:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
hmm
12. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
13. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
considering that gio just posted his best season, and kennedy just had maybe the best minor-league season of anybody, these guys seem improperly labeled. i can understand not wanting to lump them into "good," but "coasting on rep" is woefully misdescriptive. unless you mean kennedy is coasting on his rep from his sophomore year at USC.
by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
in addition, Hurley's not really coasting on his rep: his straight production is always significantly better than his ratings in this community. if anything, he's being knocked down by Texas' rep with pitchers (combined with his flyball stats -- not the most common stat for people around here to nitpick with, though i won't say it's illegitimate).
as for the rest of them, i'd say it makes sense. of course, i still love Nick Adenhart and might have him in my top 25. and think Kennedy is overranked by 30 or 40 spots.
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 8, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
final.
Ros Detwiler 13
Josh Vitters 11
Cole Rohrbough 10
Neil Walker 9
Hank Conger 9
Fat Elvis Andrus 7
James McDonald 5
Ian Stewart 5
Jordan Walden 4
Chris Carter 2
Justin Masterson 2
Brent Lillibridge 2
(Anthony Swarzak 1)
(Jeremy Hellickson 1)
(Brett Anderson 1)
Total Votes 96
one vote - i could do a runoff, but screw it. we're in the fifties. obviously he's going to be around here somewhere. let's get it over with.
by wily mo on Jan 9, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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