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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

Lincecum vs. Cain vs. Gallardo

I was talking trade earlier in the day involving those 3. And I thought it was interesting what people would think is the best pitcher of the 3. Cain and Lincecum are somewhat similar pitcher but Gallardo is a different style. Right now I think Cain and Lincecum are slightly a level up from Gallardo(because of their "stuff") but I'm not sure and that's why I want to get a feel from the community here.

Yovani Gallardo
Plus: Good team, good defense behind, good control, good breaking ball
Minus: Not a power pitcher

Tim Lincecum
Plus: Good fastball, good curveball, deceptive delivery, good home park
Minus: Bad defense, bad run support, not very good control, rely on fastball too much

Matt Cain
Plus: Plus fastball and curve, with slider and change showing potential, big solid body with an easy delivery, good home park
Minus: Bad defense, bad run support, not very good control, rely on fastball too much

Poll
Who's going to have the best career?
Tim Lincecum
97 votes
Yovani Gallardo
77 votes
Matt Cain
131 votes

305 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 66 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Any of the above
Cain looks like the most sure thing.  Gallardo looks like the best "pitcher".  Lincecum has the best stuff.  Can't argue with any of the three.

by nyy601 on Jan 6, 2008 7:29 PM EST reply actions  

Cain
Most sure thing of what? Most consistant 16 game loser playing for that lousy team?

by HumboltThunderbolt on Jan 7, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Snark
We should start awarding snark points, one set for meanness and one for creativity/originality.

On a scale of 1-4, I'd give this one a two for meanness and a 1 for creativity/originality.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I like it
Also, perhaps some sort of credit for poor grammar or misspellings?

I'd throw in a 0.5 on this one.

by Yakker on Jan 7, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

snark points
i don't know if you're serious or not, but i actually really like this idea.

of course, if you weren't being serious, i'll give you a 1.5 for meanness and a 3 for originality.

by jpahk on Jan 7, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank You
Half serious, half snarky, I guess.  Yeah, I thought it was a neat idea  if I may say so myself.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 8, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Won-Loss Record
Matt is indeed the most sure thing of he three -- at least in the sense that he has pitched well for over two full seasons, whereas neither Lincecum nor Gallard has yet pitched a full season in the majors.

As for the 16 losses, I always thought wins and losses comprised a team stat.

As far as their ceilings go, I think Matt may well have the lowest of the three, with his teammate Lincecum having the highest.  But Gallardo has excdellent stuff and the best control of the trio.  

by sharksrog on Jan 7, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

D
I'm just stoked that 2 out of the 3 are Giants.  I pretty much agree with the assessment except I think the Giants have better D than the BrewCrew, especially if they re-sign Feliz.  Not saying I necessarily want them to re-sign Pedro, but he is a hella defender.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 6, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions  

pick
my vote is for either gallardo or lincecum.
gallardo seems like the safer pick in my opinion, as he has less concerns, etc... lincecum has the higher ceiling.

by bk11 on Jan 6, 2008 8:41 PM EST reply actions  

Defense
Unless Gallardo was traded and I missed it, he does not have a good defense behind him, not by a long shot.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Jan 6, 2008 9:12 PM EST reply actions  

he will...
... have good defense behind him once the brewers sign luis gonzalez to play left field.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly
INF Defense:

Braun = terrible
Hardy = above average
Weeks = below average
Fielder = terrible

OF:
Hall = below average to average, improving rapidly
Hart = solid
And in LF, Jenkins was actually above average defensively, and his replacement will likely be worse than him... until LaPorta comes up to "play" LF.

I love my crew, but they really do have an awful defense.

This guy is Iran, however, but pitches in Japan.

by ufoboy90 on Jan 6, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Who?
Who are these guys?  I've never heard of them.

by GregJP on Jan 6, 2008 9:58 PM EST reply actions  

It really depends
On who Chuck Norris will support

by dlpme77 on Jan 6, 2008 10:45 PM EST reply actions  

My Plan to Secure the Border?
Two Words:

Chuck. Norris.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDUQW8LUMs8

What a guy...

This guy is Iran, however, but pitches in Japan.

by ufoboy90 on Jan 6, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Chuck
Does not have a chin behind his beard, just another fist.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 6, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

not a power pitcher?
striking out a batter per inning with an arsenal that features a mid 90s fb has got to be considered a power pitcher no?

by taggartd on Jan 6, 2008 10:45 PM EST reply actions  

Timmy
Is high on my "injury rating" list right now.  Really have soured on him mechanically.  His control issues are not an abberation in my opinion.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 6, 2008 11:33 PM EST reply actions  

What are you seeing?
I see Tim's mechanics and "injury rating" as being just the opposite as you see them, Husker.  Tim's mechanics take as much of the strain off his arm as anyone I have seen.

What are you seeing that makes you think Tim is essentially an injury waiting to happen?

As an aside, Will Carroll likely knows as much about baseball injuries as anyone we are likely to read.  His book "Saving the Pitcher" is a pretty good read.  Will says he wouldn't trade Tim for any other pitcher.  Can't imagine his saying that if he had even an average concern for injury to Tim.

by sharksrog on Jan 7, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Will
and I don't see eye to eye on many pitchers.  I also wouldn't say he knows as much about baseball injuries as anyone.  He's a reporter who knows what he's been told, he has no degree in sports medicine.  His admiration for Mike Marshall is what has really turned me off to him.

I'd like to know what you think Lincecum does to
"take strain off the arm".  

Lincecum does alot of things well in my opinion, but there are two things he does that I really don't like.  He really creates alot of linear energy down the mound with what I believe is an excessive stride length.  Studies show linear energy creates as little at 25% of velocity.  In pitchers I have worked with I find that when they create this much linear energy they struggle to find a consistent release point.  Couple that with Lincecum's horrible dynamic balance at release (head tilt - see Pedro Astacio) and IMO you have the cause of his control problems.  I've read stuff on Lincecum where he talks about getting every part of his body behind the pitch, but he does that at the expense of staying balanced around his center of gravity.  Any time a pitcher is creating forces that are not in the direction of the throw, he is creating an equal and opposite force that I believe is detrimental to his arm.  Take a look at say Maddux at release and then Lincecum at release and it will be obvious what I am talking about.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 8, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

In terms of injury
Lincecum has a problem with hyperabduction of the shoulder in his arm action.  Not to the level of Liriano but enough that it is a concern for me.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 8, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I am eager
You are over my head with this comment, Husker, and I am eager to understand your point.  Would you mind taking the time to explain your point to a novice such as myself?  Thanks.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Hyperabduction
Chris O'Leary (see his website) caught this on Lincecum, I am not going to take credit for it.  He also explains what hyperabduction is VERY WELL.  I am very high on O'Leary.  Note: Take a look at his frame by frame breakdown of Mariano Rivera in his Frozen Ropes gear. :)

The long and short of hyperabduction is that the shoulder is significantly stronger in a "pressing" action than it is in a "lifting" action.  You can press alot more weight over your head than you can lifting your arm out to your side.  When that lifting action takes the elbow above the level of the shoulder, it is an extremely weak and vulnerable position in any pitcher.  Pitchers that get into this position have shown a history of developing arm problems (Prior, Liriano, Carpenter, Drysdale, Steve Avery, etc).  

Lincecum is a bit unique in that he gets into this position but he doesn't stay there, essentially, IMO, his window of vulnerability in his mechanics is small but its there.  He gets into a hyperabduction position but then as he starts to launch his elbow goes back down below his shoulder (something Prior/Liriano did/do not).  I think he accomplishes this by throwing his head off his center of gravity, but that's just my opinion.  

For comparison, take a look at any video of Maddux or Clemens.  Their elbow NEVER gets above their shoulder until release.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 9, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks
Thanks very much for the explanation, Husker.  I did know about the problem with the elbow over shoulder level, but I didn't know the specific term for it.

by sharksrog on Jan 9, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I appreciate
I appreciate your response, Husker.  I will attempt to research the points you made, which is a litle tricky right now since I am out of town for the week.  I don't know whether to agree or not, but I thought your points were nicely thought out.

As for how I feel Tim takes the strain off his arm, his motion is one obvious point.  The concept is for his body to be like the pole and his arm like the pole vaulter.

Tim has tremendous flexility and good strength in his core.  He is reported to have been working even more on his groin, abs and lower back this winter and is said to be in even better shape -- focusing more on being in top-notch shape rather than in adding to what some think isn' enough weight for a pitcher to carry for durability.

There are teachers who have blogs on the internet who use Tim's mechanics as an example of what to do.  This was the case even back when Tim hadn't pitched above Class A. There may well be validity in the criticisms you raised, but I think there is no doubt Tim does a lot of things right -- some of them better than almost anyone else.

I think the key to Tim's development will come from his abiliy to better control his pitches, particularly his first pitch to every batter.  Tim threw only about 55% strikes on his first pitches last season, which doesn't compare very well with the 73% of Greg Maddux.

When Tim's first pitch is a strike, his walk rate approaches that of Maddux.  But when his first pitch is a ball, he drops to a rate like the young Sandy Koufax.

Tim also should use his two secondary pitches more IMO, particularly when he is ahead in the count and with two strikes.  He gets a lot of swing-throughs with those two pitches. Tim is said to be working on many things this winter, including pitch selection.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

No argument
at all with Lincecum's core strength.  His separation of hips and shoulders is excellent for such a young pitcher.  He is very similar in body type and ability in this area to Roy Oswalt in my opinion.  Approaches a 90 degree angle at front foot strike, very good.

The pole vault analogy sounds solid and maybe this is how he describes it, but it isn't what his body is doing.  It does however explain his extreme linear energy.  Sounds alot like what Dick Mills is teaching, a philosophy that has been disproven several times over by biomechanical reasearch. (There is alot of BAD information out there on the internet and people are paying good money to get it)  If linear energy down the mound (from a long stride) were the only factor for creating velocity, you would see pitchers get a running start from 2nd base to the rubber (joking, but you get my point).  Rotational energy (torque) - core strength is a SIGNIFICANTLY larger percentage of velocity.

I honestly think if he got his head straight and shortened up his stride just a little bit his control problems would go away.  If he doesn't get his head straight, though, I see him as a pretty high injury risk.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 9, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Intriguing
Intriguing thought about running up to the mound from second base, Husker.  Just yesterday I heard about a visual comparison made between the motion of Tim and that of a particular cricket pitcher.  They were said to look very much alike.

by sharksrog on Jan 9, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Misplaced Focus
in my humble opinion.  
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 10, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I think I rate Lincecum the highest
Lincecum has only 3 pitches. But there all awesome. If he ever gets some control his ceiling is the highest IMO. He throws harder than the others, with movement. And his curveball is filthy when on.
Gallardo is probably going to be a star sooner. Since he seems to have good command most of the time. Cain will end up being the worst of the 3. But thats hardly a bad thing. He will still be a stud. But Cain has been up for a few years now and still hasnt gotten his walks down. So I am down on him for that. If Lincecum goes into the 2009 year and still cant get his walks down then that will knock him down a notch as well.

by Maxima231 on Jan 6, 2008 11:44 PM EST reply actions  

A Few Years?
A few years?

Cain made his major league debut at the end of August in 2006.  That barely even qualifies for a couple.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 7, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions  

2005, actually.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 7, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Matt Cain's Splits
BB/9:

Before All-Star Break:  4.26.

After All-Star Break:  2.69.

This kid is still learning to pitch and getting better fast.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Didn't
he do that last year too?  And a couple years in the minors? Maybe he's just a slow starter?
Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2008 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Splits
Cain did make progress from the start of 2006, but he was so bad early in 2006 that he skipped a couple of starts to work on his mechanics and there was talk of sending him back down.  I would see the first half of 2007 as equivalent to the second half of 2006 and the second half of last year as a continued progression.  

In the minors, he was actually a lot better in the early part of the season as stamina seemed to be an issue.  Not surprising for a kid who was consistently pitching above his age level.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Matt
Matt actually missed just one start in early 2006, substituting his only career relief appearance instead.

When Tim Lincecum slumped badly in June, the Giants considered doing the same with him.  Then Tim made a strong start against the Padres in his last start of the month and went on to pitch as well as anyone in July, beginning with a 12-strikeout effort, which was his season high in that category.

by sharksrog on Jan 9, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Cain second halves
Yeah, he did and hopefully he doesn't do it again.  For some reason he doesn't trust his fastball so he uses other pitches more.  That happened in both 2006 and 2007.

It was more disastrous in 2006 early on, not so much in 2007, but his K/BB suffered greatly until - and this is quoted almost verbatim - "I was watching Matt Morris throw more fastballs and realized I needed to do the same."  That was right around when Morris was traded away, if I recall right.

If Cain would just use his fastball more often, he looks like he would be fine, or rather, more than fine.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 7, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Amazingly
Amazingly, Matt had better control of his change up last season than any other pitch.  As I recall, in the PITCH/fx analysis at www.hardballtimes.com, he was shown to have thrown 69% strikes with the change.

by sharksrog on Jan 9, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Even better
Even better, Matt's walk rate was down around two in August and September.

If Tim Lincecum can make and maintain such an improvement in control, heaven help the rest of the National League.

If Matt can maintain something approaching his post-All-Star rate, he himself should be very good.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought Cain was the best one
Lincecum has 2 awesome pitch, I wouldn't call his changeup awesome yet. And he sure as hell don't have a 4th pitch with plus potential. Things that Cain has. Cain is younger, proven that he can pitch 190ip  for 2 years and more solidly built

by playingwithfire on Jan 7, 2008 2:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Most effective pitch
I don't think we know for sure that Tim Lincecum doesn't have a fourth pitch with plus potential.  Just last winter he developed his change up as his third pitch, and by last season's end, it was his most effective pitch.

Who knows for sure what surprises he has in store for us this winter?  I'm certainly not expecting a fourth pitch this winter, but I think it is premature to say that he doesn't have a fourth pitch with plus potential.  We just don't know for sure.

by sharksrog on Jan 7, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

most effective it may
it's still under exposed. Tim throws it less than 10%(and that's being conservative, I want to say less than 5%) of the times, it has some nice tail to it. But I wouldn't call it a great, even good pitch yet. I need to see him throw that with consistency for a while to say that. And just because he came up with a decent change doesn't mean he'll come up with a decent slider/slurve/split/palm/knuckle/spit/eepheus next. I know from watching Giants game that Cain has a slider with good potential and a change that's at least as good as Lincecums when it's on. Plus Cain has probably the best fastball in baseball. One of the pitch that's so dominant hitters can't hit it when they know it's coming(honorable mention here to James Shields' changeup, I don't know how he does it, consistently strikes out 6+ a game with pretty much that changeup alone and nothing else too special).

Another concern with Lincecum is his endurance. I love his delivery as much as the next guy. Probably more, I wanted the Royals to pick the guy #1 overall a couple years ago. But it just has a lot of moving parts and if a little goes wrong, the control goes way off. Lincecum supporter says he has a rubber arm, I'm not questioning that(predicting injuries with pitcher not named Kerry Wood and Mark Prior is a crapshoot anyway). I've just seen Timmy running out of gas around the end of the 5th to the 6th too many times, and just keep chugging fastballs way outside the zone and gets pulled a bit too much. Now he might improve on that. But Cain don't show fatigue that often as far as control goes.

Pitchwise Cain's fastball is probably superior than Lincecum's(Cain can live off his fastball, Lincecum, from the limited time he had to, can't), Lincecum has a better curve simply because he can spot it better, Cain's curve is also a plus pitch when he can spot it. Timmy has the superior change right now simply because it had more of a differential compared to the fastball(86-88mph change vs. 95-97mph fast vs. Cain's 87-90mph change) as well as more tailing action and better control. But Cain has been improving his slider as of late and that has some amazing movement to it.

All in all, it's really a crapshoot who'll be the best of the bunch. I strongly disagree with the theory that Lincecum has the highest upside of the 3 as I don't think he has shown he has better stuff than Cain and Cain has shown that he can pitch close to 200 innings consistently a year without breaking down.

by playingwithfire on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions  

If
If you look at the PITCH/fx information available at www.hardballtimes.com, you will see that while one could argue in a very close race that Cain's fastball is more effective than Lincecum's(Matt's fastball has more horizontal movement than Tim's, although Tim's has slightly more vertical movement and a bit more speed than Matt's.), but clearly Tim's curve is the big difference.  Tim's curve is far more effective than either Matt's curve or Matt's slider.  Tim's change up is also harder to hit than Matt's, although to his credit Matt actually has very good control of the pitch.

Tim throws his change up over 10% of the time, but IMO he would benefit it from throwing it more often.  He is said to be attempting to improve his pitch selection.

Matt also would benefit from throwing his change up more often.  And Matt would benefit from improving his curve ball and from further improvement in his slider.

What Tim needs to improve is his control, particularly on his first pitch to batters.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Lots of interesting points
Your comments here, Maxima, got me thinking of a handful of factors.

First, Tim Lincecum's best pitch coming out of college was considered to be his hammer curve ball.    But by the end of last seaoson, the change up he added last winter was actually his most effective pitch.  As with his other two pitches, he could benefit from better control of the pitch.

Second, the first time I ever saw Matt Cain pitch wsa in his major league debut.  He pitched quite well, but the one problem I saw was that he yielded too many foul balls to be a top-notch strikeout guy.  The foul balls also contribute to high pitch counts on his part.

Matt is a wonderful pitcher, but he doesn't have quite the strikeout touch of either Lincecum or Gallardo.

Matt did, however, get his walks down around the two level in August and September of last season.  If he can make that control level or something anywhere close to it long-term, he will be a true pitcher to reckon with.  Surprisingly, Matt's most effective pitch is also his change up.  He should throw it a lot more -- and work on both his slider and curve, both pitches that fall well below his fastball and change.

Tim also has shown great improvement in his control, beginning with his 2005 summer season in the Cape Cod League.  Tim has been quoted as saying that things just came together then, and when he moved on to his junior season at the Universiy of Washington,he decreased his walk rate by over a quarter from his freshman and soph.  He has cut his walk rate further since turning professional.

The key for Tim in cutting down on his walks appears to improve his first-pitch strike percentage from its mediocre-at-best 55% or so in 2007.  When Tim's first pitch last season was a strike, he walked batters at a Greg Maddux-like rate.  But when the first pitch was a ball, he walked them like a young Sandy Koufax.

by sharksrog on Jan 7, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

actual trade
Brewers Receive:
Luis Castillo, 2B $6,500,000(2009)
Tim Lincecum, P $300,000(2011)
Rick Porcello, P (prospect)

Athletics Receive:
Scott Podsednik, OF $8,200,000 (2009)
Pedro Feliz, 3B/DH $,6,500,000 (2008)
Rickie Weeks, 2B $300,000 (2010)
Yovanni Gallardo, P (prospect)
Taylor Green, 3B (prospect)

by playingwithfire on Jan 7, 2008 1:31 AM EST reply actions  

Assuming
It's an "actual" fantasy trade, by the rosters.

by Yakker on Jan 7, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Career
I'd go with Cain, but next 5 years, I'd go with Gallardo.  Based on stuff and mechanics, Cain is the most likely to have a long career, so he may end up having the most career value, but he's the one I'd want to have the least right now.
Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2008 10:06 AM EST reply actions  

Cain
This is an issue that's been discussed several times, IIRC, with Dr.B. coming out in favor of Cain due to sturdiness.

Hey Flynn, maybe we oughta have a weekly Cain/Lincecum/Billy Beane dump thread, so as not to "swamp" the fantasy baseball diaries?  ;-)

by Yakker on Jan 7, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Not you
Just a joke for Flynn Blake, who has started this "fantasy dump" thing.

by Yakker on Jan 7, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Good Memory
Love both Cain and Lincecum.  Lincecum may do better over the next year or two, although Cain is darn good right now.  I like Cain's long term sturdiness.  I recognize that injury prognosication is a crapshoot with all pitchers though.  Aside from injury, Cain is the more likely to be able to pitch a full season without missing starts or otherwise wearing down just from fatigue.  The kid is a horse!

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah
Although I did also want to ask you about something you've said about Cain for awhile, that his delivery reminds you (primarily in his lower half) of Seaver.

Now, I know Alou said once a few years back, after the "Good Cain" pitched, that the kid reminded him of a young Tom Seaver, but I understood that to be more guts and stuff and less mechanics.

I finally got a chance to watch some of Seaver's 1969 WS start, and his delivery didn't look much like Cain's, to my untrained eye.  Seaver's hands came up much higher, as did his leg kick.  He threw (at least in the start I saw in ESPN Classic) more 3/4 than Cain, and of course Cain falls heavily to the 1B side while Seaver's windup took him towards 3B.  Also, and I'm not much of an expert in biomechanics but others say this is very important for Cain, Seaver didn't have nearly the pronounced "step over" at the end of his delivery that Cain does.

So, I guess I'm wondering what similarities you saw between the two.  Seaver's early years predate me, so I only have the benedit of very faded memory of the older Seaver or snapshots like the ESPN Classic game, but I didn't really see the comparison.

by Yakker on Jan 7, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Mound Presence
I'm not really an expert in the details of pitching mechanics.  I was referring more to body type, mound presence, bulldog personality.  To me, they looked superficially similar in their deliveries.  I know someone once posted a still shot over on mccoveychronicles.com of both at the same point in their windup and they looked almost identical.  Still, if they aren't that mechanically similar, the other stuff would still remind me of Seaver, but that's just me.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

OK
That makes sense.  I was just surprised to see young Seaver with my own eyes, and have him look so different mechanically after what I'd heard from you.

If we're talking about comps for Cain on guts/mound presence/body type, I think Brad Penny is the guy that comes to my mind immediately.  Also, the two are similar in pitch repertoire and selection, with big FBs up in the zone and nasty breaking stuff.  Both also need work on their changes IMO as well.

by Yakker on Jan 8, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Cain Vs Penny
Oh no!  Don't go there!  Brad Penny is not one of my favorite people and he's with the enemy!

Seriously, Penny is a bit hotheaded and prone to meltdowns on the mound.  He controlled his emotions much better last year. Cain is much more taciturn, although he got a bit hot at the Pads in the last start of the season when Scott Hairston hotdogged it around the bases after a HR.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 8, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah
Penny often pitches with his cojones rather than his brain, but the dude can flat bring it.

Honestly, if Matt Cain becomes Brad Penny in a few years, he'll be a terrific success, in my book.

by Yakker on Jan 8, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Cain vs. Lincecum
I don't really know Gallardo's repertoire, so I'll leave that to others.

From what I've read, I've been much more impressed with Lincecum in terms of having plus pitches and stuff than Cain.  In addition, Cain did get shut down for a sore arm his first year in the pros (but has been healthy since), whereas Lincecum has never had any physical problems that the public is aware of.  His arm is so unbothered that he doesn't need to ice his arm at all after games PLUS is able to long toss the next day.  Also, Lincecum gets a lot of strikeouts AND a lot of groundballs, while Cain gets a good amount of strikeouts but gives up a lot of flyballs.  Cain, at least, has been reducing his FB% and increasing his GB%, but Lincecum is already there.

So I have to go with Lincecum over Cain.  

Sure, Cain's body profiles better for longevity, but Lincecum hasn't had any physical problems that has affected his performance, even with going 160+ pitches in college.  I'm no doctor, but that impresses the hell out of me and so I would have to go with him on that, particularly in light of Cain having a sore arm when he was 19.  He also strikes out more and get more groundballs, to boot.  So if I had to choose,  for performance or longevity or both, I would go with Lincecum (and I did in my keeper league :^).

But this is kind of like trying to chose your favorite food or dessert or candy, you will always have your favorite but you don't lose with your second choice by much, either would be a joy to have.

Looking strictly at stats, Gallardo was very impressive, his only bad month was driven by a horrendous BABIP in August, otherwise, his command was great in the majors, and even improved as the end drew near.  Both Cain and Lincecum have suffered from control problems and walk too many.

Also, he was hurt by line drives in 2007.  Gallardo's line drive percentage is very high, which usually means more hits given up.  Perhaps most of them were in August, the graph on Fan Graphs shows a 10 game average I believe, and it did spike upward in August.  At 23.7%, he should regress to the 22.6% mean, as he is not an extreme GB or FB pitcher. So he should benefit from a regression to the mean in 2008.

However, he lucked out in two ways in regards to homers, and that will cost him big.  First, despite pitching in a park that results in more homers, his HR/9 is actually good at home, under 1.0, and that helped him get a 2.78 ERA at home.  Second, his HR/FB was only 6.6% in 2007, mainly due to away games, and all pitchers regress to 10% of their FB's becoming homers.  That would increase the number of homers he give up by up to 50% or more.  That would push his ERA up by 0.33 (to 4.00) just to account for the 4 homers, not to mention any baserunners driven in, which would add about 0.08 to his ERA for each.

So Gallardo has some questions to answer as well. Is he the great pitcher he was at home, or the average pitcher he was on the road?  As usual, he's probably in-between, as he was hurt by a high BABIP on the road, but gained by a low HR/9 on the road as well.  Is he able to keep HR/9 down or will he be unable to?  

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 7, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

A Few Comments
I don't completely agree that Lincecum has better stuff.  He may have better looking stuff.  He may have more on his secondary pitches.  Cain's fastball is damn good.  It looks straighter than a lof of fastballs, but it has that last nanosecond jump to it that causes good hitters who are sitting on it to hit infield popups.  Cain is one of the very few pitchers in baseball who, even when the hitter knows what's coming, they still can't do anything with it.  I'm not sure Lincecum is quite there yet.  There were several times when hitters could sit on the FB like a couple of games against Philly and they just crushed it.  Both have great stuff, but I don't necessarily concede the "stuff" argument to Lincecum.

There were times last year where stamina was clearly an issue for Tim, whereas Cain was a horse.  I don't necessarily think there is a difference in injury risk.  All pitchers are at risk of injury.  I do think that there is a difference in stamina.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Fastballs Close
If you look at the PITCH/fx data on Lincecum and Cain from last season, you may find that there is precious little to choose from between their two fastballs.

My gut feel, much like yours, was that Matt had the better of the two fastballs. But the closer I looked, the more problem I had in determining which one was better.  I would probably go with Matt, but by only a wafer-thin margin.

Tim's fastball is faster and has a bit more vertical.  Matt's appears to be more consistent and has more horizontal movement.

Tim gets more called strikes; Matt, more swinging strikes.  Tim gets more fastballs put in play; Matt gets more fouls.  Both pitchers hold batters to low averages, although Tim allowede a bit more power on the pitch.

Surprisingly to me, Tim actually had the slightly higher percentage of strikes with the pitch.

I agree with you that Matt can get by a bit better than Tim when he leaves the ball up.  That said, when Tim keeps the pitch down, it is REALLY hard to hit -- even tougher than when Matt throws it low.

Both pitchers have very, very good fastballs and change ups.  Tim's change up is more effective, but Matt has uncanny control of the pitch.  Tim's curve ball is FAR better than Matt's, and Matt rarely uses the pitch, prefering his slider, which isn't particularly good either.

I think Tim has better stuff -- but at season's end Matt had better control.  Tim can improve significantly merely by improving his control -- particularly of his first pitch to a batter.  Matt can improve, but he will need to significantly improve his curve and/or slider to do so -- although he could improve a fair amount merely by throwing his change up more often IMO.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

PITCH/fx
Lincecum 95.11 fastball velocity

McGowan 96.11 fastball velocity

whooohooooo!

by pedrophile on Jan 9, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions  

McGowan
is a serious bad a**.

Halladay, Burnett, and Dustin as a Top 3 is sick, if they could just be healthy at the same time!

by Yakker on Jan 9, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

best of 5
Many teams would be afraid of facing them in the first round of playoffs. Of course I highly doubt they make it.

Boston is taking the division and if the Yankees get Santana that's the wild card. If not there is a small chance for the wild card. But they will have to beat Cleveland, NY, and KC.

by pedrophile on Jan 9, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

That's cool
Thanks for your thoughts.

Regarding Tim's stamina, I think we need to take into account that 2007 was the first year he was pitching that deep into the year and with that many innings pitched.  Even with the heavy load college put on his arm, he was only pitching around 20 games, 110-120 innings each year.  In 2006, he added in about 30 IP in the pros.  So before 2007, the most he had thrown in a season was 157.0 IP (in 2006) and he only had 104.1 IP in 2005.  So going to 177.1 IP in 2007 was a stretch for him, no matter how good a shape he was in.

Given his abilities to throw without straining his arm, of being a "freak of nature" as Sabean has put it, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt in terms of stamina and will wait to see how he does in 2008 late in the season.  Hopefully he's working with his dad on strengthening his arm for a full season's work.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 8, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He Is
Tim is working with his dad this winter.  There is one specific exercise that Tim had gotten away from due to its boredom.  He's back on that one now, as well as the other exercises his dad taught him.

Your point about Tim's not pitching as long consecutively in college as he did last year in organized ball is a good one.  On the other hand, Tim did throw at least one game of 165 pitches that I have seen documented.

As long as the weather is warm, pitch count shouldn't be a problem or Tim.  I think it is important that he continue to work hard to make that the case.

Tim is said to be in better shape than ever this winter.  He is focusing on being in the best shape possible more than on adding weight to what some consider to be a frame too thin.

by sharksrog on Jan 8, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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