Lincecum vs. Cain vs. Gallardo
by playingwithfire on Jan 6, 2008 7:21 PM EST
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PrintI was talking trade earlier in the day involving those 3. And I thought it was interesting what people would think is the best pitcher of the 3. Cain and Lincecum are somewhat similar pitcher but Gallardo is a different style. Right now I think Cain and Lincecum are slightly a level up from Gallardo(because of their "stuff") but I'm not sure and that's why I want to get a feel from the community here.
Yovani Gallardo
Plus: Good team, good defense behind, good control, good breaking ball
Minus: Not a power pitcher
Tim Lincecum
Plus: Good fastball, good curveball, deceptive delivery, good home park
Minus: Bad defense, bad run support, not very good control, rely on fastball too much
Matt Cain
Plus: Plus fastball and curve, with slider and change showing potential, big solid body with an easy delivery, good home park
Minus: Bad defense, bad run support, not very good control, rely on fastball too much
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Any of the above
Cain
by HumboltThunderbolt on Jan 7, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Snark
On a scale of 1-4, I'd give this one a two for meanness and a 1 for creativity/originality.
snark points
of course, if you weren't being serious, i'll give you a 1.5 for meanness and a 3 for originality.
Thank You
Won-Loss Record
As for the 16 losses, I always thought wins and losses comprised a team stat.
As far as their ceilings go, I think Matt may well have the lowest of the three, with his teammate Lincecum having the highest. But Gallardo has excdellent stuff and the best control of the trio.
D
pick
gallardo seems like the safer pick in my opinion, as he has less concerns, etc... lincecum has the higher ceiling.
Defense
he will...
by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
exactly
Braun = terrible
Hardy = above average
Weeks = below average
Fielder = terrible
OF:
Hall = below average to average, improving rapidly
Hart = solid
And in LF, Jenkins was actually above average defensively, and his replacement will likely be worse than him... until LaPorta comes up to "play" LF.
I love my crew, but they really do have an awful defense.
Who?
It really depends
My Plan to Secure the Border?
Chuck. Norris.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDUQW8LUMs8
What a guy...
not a power pitcher?
Timmy
What are you seeing?
What are you seeing that makes you think Tim is essentially an injury waiting to happen?
As an aside, Will Carroll likely knows as much about baseball injuries as anyone we are likely to read. His book "Saving the Pitcher" is a pretty good read. Will says he wouldn't trade Tim for any other pitcher. Can't imagine his saying that if he had even an average concern for injury to Tim.
Will
I'd like to know what you think Lincecum does to
"take strain off the arm".
Lincecum does alot of things well in my opinion, but there are two things he does that I really don't like. He really creates alot of linear energy down the mound with what I believe is an excessive stride length. Studies show linear energy creates as little at 25% of velocity. In pitchers I have worked with I find that when they create this much linear energy they struggle to find a consistent release point. Couple that with Lincecum's horrible dynamic balance at release (head tilt - see Pedro Astacio) and IMO you have the cause of his control problems. I've read stuff on Lincecum where he talks about getting every part of his body behind the pitch, but he does that at the expense of staying balanced around his center of gravity. Any time a pitcher is creating forces that are not in the direction of the throw, he is creating an equal and opposite force that I believe is detrimental to his arm. Take a look at say Maddux at release and then Lincecum at release and it will be obvious what I am talking about.
In terms of injury
I am eager
Hyperabduction
The long and short of hyperabduction is that the shoulder is significantly stronger in a "pressing" action than it is in a "lifting" action. You can press alot more weight over your head than you can lifting your arm out to your side. When that lifting action takes the elbow above the level of the shoulder, it is an extremely weak and vulnerable position in any pitcher. Pitchers that get into this position have shown a history of developing arm problems (Prior, Liriano, Carpenter, Drysdale, Steve Avery, etc).
Lincecum is a bit unique in that he gets into this position but he doesn't stay there, essentially, IMO, his window of vulnerability in his mechanics is small but its there. He gets into a hyperabduction position but then as he starts to launch his elbow goes back down below his shoulder (something Prior/Liriano did/do not). I think he accomplishes this by throwing his head off his center of gravity, but that's just my opinion.
For comparison, take a look at any video of Maddux or Clemens. Their elbow NEVER gets above their shoulder until release.
I appreciate
As for how I feel Tim takes the strain off his arm, his motion is one obvious point. The concept is for his body to be like the pole and his arm like the pole vaulter.
Tim has tremendous flexility and good strength in his core. He is reported to have been working even more on his groin, abs and lower back this winter and is said to be in even better shape -- focusing more on being in top-notch shape rather than in adding to what some think isn' enough weight for a pitcher to carry for durability.
There are teachers who have blogs on the internet who use Tim's mechanics as an example of what to do. This was the case even back when Tim hadn't pitched above Class A. There may well be validity in the criticisms you raised, but I think there is no doubt Tim does a lot of things right -- some of them better than almost anyone else.
I think the key to Tim's development will come from his abiliy to better control his pitches, particularly his first pitch to every batter. Tim threw only about 55% strikes on his first pitches last season, which doesn't compare very well with the 73% of Greg Maddux.
When Tim's first pitch is a strike, his walk rate approaches that of Maddux. But when his first pitch is a ball, he drops to a rate like the young Sandy Koufax.
Tim also should use his two secondary pitches more IMO, particularly when he is ahead in the count and with two strikes. He gets a lot of swing-throughs with those two pitches. Tim is said to be working on many things this winter, including pitch selection.
No argument
The pole vault analogy sounds solid and maybe this is how he describes it, but it isn't what his body is doing. It does however explain his extreme linear energy. Sounds alot like what Dick Mills is teaching, a philosophy that has been disproven several times over by biomechanical reasearch. (There is alot of BAD information out there on the internet and people are paying good money to get it) If linear energy down the mound (from a long stride) were the only factor for creating velocity, you would see pitchers get a running start from 2nd base to the rubber (joking, but you get my point). Rotational energy (torque) - core strength is a SIGNIFICANTLY larger percentage of velocity.
I honestly think if he got his head straight and shortened up his stride just a little bit his control problems would go away. If he doesn't get his head straight, though, I see him as a pretty high injury risk.
Intriguing
Misplaced Focus
I think I rate Lincecum the highest
Gallardo is probably going to be a star sooner. Since he seems to have good command most of the time. Cain will end up being the worst of the 3. But thats hardly a bad thing. He will still be a stud. But Cain has been up for a few years now and still hasnt gotten his walks down. So I am down on him for that. If Lincecum goes into the 2009 year and still cant get his walks down then that will knock him down a notch as well.
A Few Years?
Cain made his major league debut at the end of August in 2006. That barely even qualifies for a couple.
by BruteSentiment on Jan 7, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
Matt Cain's Splits
Before All-Star Break: 4.26.
After All-Star Break: 2.69.
This kid is still learning to pitch and getting better fast.
Didn't
Splits
In the minors, he was actually a lot better in the early part of the season as stamina seemed to be an issue. Not surprising for a kid who was consistently pitching above his age level.
by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 7, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Matt
When Tim Lincecum slumped badly in June, the Giants considered doing the same with him. Then Tim made a strong start against the Padres in his last start of the month and went on to pitch as well as anyone in July, beginning with a 12-strikeout effort, which was his season high in that category.
Cain second halves
It was more disastrous in 2006 early on, not so much in 2007, but his K/BB suffered greatly until - and this is quoted almost verbatim - "I was watching Matt Morris throw more fastballs and realized I needed to do the same." That was right around when Morris was traded away, if I recall right.
If Cain would just use his fastball more often, he looks like he would be fine, or rather, more than fine.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 7, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Even better
If Tim Lincecum can make and maintain such an improvement in control, heaven help the rest of the National League.
If Matt can maintain something approaching his post-All-Star rate, he himself should be very good.
I thought Cain was the best one
by playingwithfire on Jan 7, 2008 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
Most effective pitch
Who knows for sure what surprises he has in store for us this winter? I'm certainly not expecting a fourth pitch this winter, but I think it is premature to say that he doesn't have a fourth pitch with plus potential. We just don't know for sure.
most effective it may
Another concern with Lincecum is his endurance. I love his delivery as much as the next guy. Probably more, I wanted the Royals to pick the guy #1 overall a couple years ago. But it just has a lot of moving parts and if a little goes wrong, the control goes way off. Lincecum supporter says he has a rubber arm, I'm not questioning that(predicting injuries with pitcher not named Kerry Wood and Mark Prior is a crapshoot anyway). I've just seen Timmy running out of gas around the end of the 5th to the 6th too many times, and just keep chugging fastballs way outside the zone and gets pulled a bit too much. Now he might improve on that. But Cain don't show fatigue that often as far as control goes.
Pitchwise Cain's fastball is probably superior than Lincecum's(Cain can live off his fastball, Lincecum, from the limited time he had to, can't), Lincecum has a better curve simply because he can spot it better, Cain's curve is also a plus pitch when he can spot it. Timmy has the superior change right now simply because it had more of a differential compared to the fastball(86-88mph change vs. 95-97mph fast vs. Cain's 87-90mph change) as well as more tailing action and better control. But Cain has been improving his slider as of late and that has some amazing movement to it.
All in all, it's really a crapshoot who'll be the best of the bunch. I strongly disagree with the theory that Lincecum has the highest upside of the 3 as I don't think he has shown he has better stuff than Cain and Cain has shown that he can pitch close to 200 innings consistently a year without breaking down.
by playingwithfire on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
If
Tim throws his change up over 10% of the time, but IMO he would benefit it from throwing it more often. He is said to be attempting to improve his pitch selection.
Matt also would benefit from throwing his change up more often. And Matt would benefit from improving his curve ball and from further improvement in his slider.
What Tim needs to improve is his control, particularly on his first pitch to batters.
Lots of interesting points
First, Tim Lincecum's best pitch coming out of college was considered to be his hammer curve ball. But by the end of last seaoson, the change up he added last winter was actually his most effective pitch. As with his other two pitches, he could benefit from better control of the pitch.
Second, the first time I ever saw Matt Cain pitch wsa in his major league debut. He pitched quite well, but the one problem I saw was that he yielded too many foul balls to be a top-notch strikeout guy. The foul balls also contribute to high pitch counts on his part.
Matt is a wonderful pitcher, but he doesn't have quite the strikeout touch of either Lincecum or Gallardo.
Matt did, however, get his walks down around the two level in August and September of last season. If he can make that control level or something anywhere close to it long-term, he will be a true pitcher to reckon with. Surprisingly, Matt's most effective pitch is also his change up. He should throw it a lot more -- and work on both his slider and curve, both pitches that fall well below his fastball and change.
Tim also has shown great improvement in his control, beginning with his 2005 summer season in the Cape Cod League. Tim has been quoted as saying that things just came together then, and when he moved on to his junior season at the Universiy of Washington,he decreased his walk rate by over a quarter from his freshman and soph. He has cut his walk rate further since turning professional.
The key for Tim in cutting down on his walks appears to improve his first-pitch strike percentage from its mediocre-at-best 55% or so in 2007. When Tim's first pitch last season was a strike, he walked batters at a Greg Maddux-like rate. But when the first pitch was a ball, he walked them like a young Sandy Koufax.
actual trade
Luis Castillo, 2B $6,500,000(2009)
Tim Lincecum, P $300,000(2011)
Rick Porcello, P (prospect)
Athletics Receive:
Scott Podsednik, OF $8,200,000 (2009)
Pedro Feliz, 3B/DH $,6,500,000 (2008)
Rickie Weeks, 2B $300,000 (2010)
Yovanni Gallardo, P (prospect)
Taylor Green, 3B (prospect)
Career
Cain
Hey Flynn, maybe we oughta have a weekly Cain/Lincecum/Billy Beane dump thread, so as not to "swamp" the fantasy baseball diaries? ;-)
Do I know you?
by playingwithfire on Jan 7, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Good Memory
Yeah
Now, I know Alou said once a few years back, after the "Good Cain" pitched, that the kid reminded him of a young Tom Seaver, but I understood that to be more guts and stuff and less mechanics.
I finally got a chance to watch some of Seaver's 1969 WS start, and his delivery didn't look much like Cain's, to my untrained eye. Seaver's hands came up much higher, as did his leg kick. He threw (at least in the start I saw in ESPN Classic) more 3/4 than Cain, and of course Cain falls heavily to the 1B side while Seaver's windup took him towards 3B. Also, and I'm not much of an expert in biomechanics but others say this is very important for Cain, Seaver didn't have nearly the pronounced "step over" at the end of his delivery that Cain does.
So, I guess I'm wondering what similarities you saw between the two. Seaver's early years predate me, so I only have the benedit of very faded memory of the older Seaver or snapshots like the ESPN Classic game, but I didn't really see the comparison.
Mound Presence
OK
If we're talking about comps for Cain on guts/mound presence/body type, I think Brad Penny is the guy that comes to my mind immediately. Also, the two are similar in pitch repertoire and selection, with big FBs up in the zone and nasty breaking stuff. Both also need work on their changes IMO as well.
Cain Vs Penny
Seriously, Penny is a bit hotheaded and prone to meltdowns on the mound. He controlled his emotions much better last year. Cain is much more taciturn, although he got a bit hot at the Pads in the last start of the season when Scott Hairston hotdogged it around the bases after a HR.
Cain vs. Lincecum
From what I've read, I've been much more impressed with Lincecum in terms of having plus pitches and stuff than Cain. In addition, Cain did get shut down for a sore arm his first year in the pros (but has been healthy since), whereas Lincecum has never had any physical problems that the public is aware of. His arm is so unbothered that he doesn't need to ice his arm at all after games PLUS is able to long toss the next day. Also, Lincecum gets a lot of strikeouts AND a lot of groundballs, while Cain gets a good amount of strikeouts but gives up a lot of flyballs. Cain, at least, has been reducing his FB% and increasing his GB%, but Lincecum is already there.
So I have to go with Lincecum over Cain.
Sure, Cain's body profiles better for longevity, but Lincecum hasn't had any physical problems that has affected his performance, even with going 160+ pitches in college. I'm no doctor, but that impresses the hell out of me and so I would have to go with him on that, particularly in light of Cain having a sore arm when he was 19. He also strikes out more and get more groundballs, to boot. So if I had to choose, for performance or longevity or both, I would go with Lincecum (and I did in my keeper league :^).
But this is kind of like trying to chose your favorite food or dessert or candy, you will always have your favorite but you don't lose with your second choice by much, either would be a joy to have.
Looking strictly at stats, Gallardo was very impressive, his only bad month was driven by a horrendous BABIP in August, otherwise, his command was great in the majors, and even improved as the end drew near. Both Cain and Lincecum have suffered from control problems and walk too many.
Also, he was hurt by line drives in 2007. Gallardo's line drive percentage is very high, which usually means more hits given up. Perhaps most of them were in August, the graph on Fan Graphs shows a 10 game average I believe, and it did spike upward in August. At 23.7%, he should regress to the 22.6% mean, as he is not an extreme GB or FB pitcher. So he should benefit from a regression to the mean in 2008.
However, he lucked out in two ways in regards to homers, and that will cost him big. First, despite pitching in a park that results in more homers, his HR/9 is actually good at home, under 1.0, and that helped him get a 2.78 ERA at home. Second, his HR/FB was only 6.6% in 2007, mainly due to away games, and all pitchers regress to 10% of their FB's becoming homers. That would increase the number of homers he give up by up to 50% or more. That would push his ERA up by 0.33 (to 4.00) just to account for the 4 homers, not to mention any baserunners driven in, which would add about 0.08 to his ERA for each.
So Gallardo has some questions to answer as well. Is he the great pitcher he was at home, or the average pitcher he was on the road? As usual, he's probably in-between, as he was hurt by a high BABIP on the road, but gained by a low HR/9 on the road as well. Is he able to keep HR/9 down or will he be unable to?
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 7, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions
A Few Comments
There were times last year where stamina was clearly an issue for Tim, whereas Cain was a horse. I don't necessarily think there is a difference in injury risk. All pitchers are at risk of injury. I do think that there is a difference in stamina.
Fastballs Close
My gut feel, much like yours, was that Matt had the better of the two fastballs. But the closer I looked, the more problem I had in determining which one was better. I would probably go with Matt, but by only a wafer-thin margin.
Tim's fastball is faster and has a bit more vertical. Matt's appears to be more consistent and has more horizontal movement.
Tim gets more called strikes; Matt, more swinging strikes. Tim gets more fastballs put in play; Matt gets more fouls. Both pitchers hold batters to low averages, although Tim allowede a bit more power on the pitch.
Surprisingly to me, Tim actually had the slightly higher percentage of strikes with the pitch.
I agree with you that Matt can get by a bit better than Tim when he leaves the ball up. That said, when Tim keeps the pitch down, it is REALLY hard to hit -- even tougher than when Matt throws it low.
Both pitchers have very, very good fastballs and change ups. Tim's change up is more effective, but Matt has uncanny control of the pitch. Tim's curve ball is FAR better than Matt's, and Matt rarely uses the pitch, prefering his slider, which isn't particularly good either.
I think Tim has better stuff -- but at season's end Matt had better control. Tim can improve significantly merely by improving his control -- particularly of his first pitch to a batter. Matt can improve, but he will need to significantly improve his curve and/or slider to do so -- although he could improve a fair amount merely by throwing his change up more often IMO.
PITCH/fx
McGowan 96.11 fastball velocity
whooohooooo!
McGowan
Halladay, Burnett, and Dustin as a Top 3 is sick, if they could just be healthy at the same time!
best of 5
Boston is taking the division and if the Yankees get Santana that's the wild card. If not there is a small chance for the wild card. But they will have to beat Cleveland, NY, and KC.
That's cool
Regarding Tim's stamina, I think we need to take into account that 2007 was the first year he was pitching that deep into the year and with that many innings pitched. Even with the heavy load college put on his arm, he was only pitching around 20 games, 110-120 innings each year. In 2006, he added in about 30 IP in the pros. So before 2007, the most he had thrown in a season was 157.0 IP (in 2006) and he only had 104.1 IP in 2005. So going to 177.1 IP in 2007 was a stretch for him, no matter how good a shape he was in.
Given his abilities to throw without straining his arm, of being a "freak of nature" as Sabean has put it, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt in terms of stamina and will wait to see how he does in 2008 late in the season. Hopefully he's working with his dad on strengthening his arm for a full season's work.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 8, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
He Is
Your point about Tim's not pitching as long consecutively in college as he did last year in organized ball is a good one. On the other hand, Tim did throw at least one game of 165 pitches that I have seen documented.
As long as the weather is warm, pitch count shouldn't be a problem or Tim. I think it is important that he continue to work hard to make that the case.
Tim is said to be in better shape than ever this winter. He is focusing on being in the best shape possible more than on adding weight to what some consider to be a frame too thin.
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