Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Jan 6, 2008 6:30 PM EST in News Comment 25 comments

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Matt Wieters, C, Grade A-
Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (I like him more than I should perhaps)
Radhames Liz, RHP, Grade B (Grade A arm, Grade C command)
Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade B
Nolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-
Garrett Olson, LHP, Grade B-
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B-
Chorye Spoone, RHP, Grade B-
Jim Hoey, RHP, Grade B-
Pedro Beato, RHP, Grade B-
Tim Bascom, RHP, Grade B-
Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade C+ (something weird here, hidden injury perhaps?)
Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade C+ (numbers don't match propaganda)
Mike Costanzo, 3B, Grade C+
Scott Moore, 3B, Grade C+
Randor Bierd, RHP, Grade C+
Bradley Bergesen, RHP, Grade C+
Bob McCrory, RHP, Grade C (I don't like him as much as some people do. Command worries me.)
David Hernandez, RHP, Grade C (sleeper potential is high though)
Jeff Fiorentino, OF, Grade C (looks like a solid fourth outfielder)

Other Grade Cs include Matt Angle, Jason Berken, Kraig Binick, Zach Britton, Fredy Deza, Paco Figueroa, Luis Jimenez, Jim Johnson, Tyler Kolodny, Luis Lebron, Joe Mahoney, Wilfred Perez, Dennis Sarfate, Kyle Schmidt, and Brandon Tripp.

This system is underrated. While some of the more-heralded guys like Brandon Snyder look overrated to me by other analysts, there is some growing depth here, and several of the Grade C+/C guys have the potential to move beyond those grades.

The Orioles still have work to do getting their farm system to the level of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Devil Rays. But they are making progress.

Again, don't get all pissy about exact placement on this list. The grades are more important than someone being ranked 15th instead of 13th.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

nice

nice to Reimold at 5

by lakerfan030 on Jan 6, 2008 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fiorentino

Just a note for editing John, the O's DFAed him and he's now a Red. Poor guy was all excited to be on the top 20, too - now he has no prayer :(

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Jan 6, 2008 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hernandez

Hernandez should rank higher than 19. Should be higher then Bascom. Hernandez's last 2 games of last year is a indication how he can dominate hitters. I believe he will have a breakout year in Bowie.

by orioole26 on Jan 6, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think it's in the nooks and crannies of the systems that the exciting prospecting is done; the blank C for David Hernandez signifies a pattern for me on John's rankings this year: I find myself interested in some of his aggressive grades (Lowrie at A-, Chris Carter at B+) for the well-known prospects, but John's relative meekness when it comes to the under the radar guys has been a bit disappointing (though I was happy to see guys like Andrew Bailey, Taylor Green and Daniel Dorn get the Sickels nod).

Maybe that will change when I get the book and read the write-ups and get a sense of what C/C+ guys John thinks can break into legitimate prospect status.

Anyway, I think Hernandez (and Spoone, for that matter) is exactly the type of guy that exceeds his first glance impression. As orioole26 stated, he closed the season in a dominant fashion, striking out 18 in one game. He's got a big frame (6'3", 214), and has struck out more than 9 per game both of his first two professional seasons, and his slider was called the best in the system by BA.

The nice thing is that he's thrown exactly 145 innings the last two years. The development this year: his k's have gone from 154 to 168, from quite nice to really nice, especially considering that he was going from low to hi A. In addition to the small spike in k's, his walks have gone from 71 to 47, giving him better than a 3:1 k:bb ratio. A small counter: he gave up 3 more homers and 5 more hits this year; but, for me, this is quite negligible.

So, on the surface, you see a guy with a 7-11 record with a 4.95 era in hi-A. Which looks like a C prospect and maybe a top twenty guy in an average system like Baltimore's. But, if you ask me, a little more digging around shows someone who is easily a high-ceiling C+ prospect, and who a (perhaps reckless) fella like me would be aggressive and call a B- prospect.

by gogotabata on Jan 6, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hernandez

Nicely said!!! Hernandez was ranked 10th by Baseball Prospectus(probably slides to 11 now that the Orioles acquired Patton)and considered a 2 star prospect along with Beato, Olson, ranked 12th by Orioles Hangout just behind Arrieta and ahead of Bascom, whom Sickels ranked high for some reason. Also if you have followed Hernandez as I have this past season is record could easily of been 11-7 instead of 7-11.

by orioole26 on Jan 7, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hernandez

Hernandez should of been a B- and ranked somewhere between 11-13. If Bascom is a B- then there is no reason for Hernandez to be.

by orioole26 on Jan 8, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tyler Henson

Keep an eye on Tyler Henson who isn't even listed. O's Hangout ranked Henson the 11th best prospect in the system. He had an .802 OPS in 250+ ABs with plenty of XBH and 20 SBs. Look for him to really breakout in Delmarva/Frederick.

Also Zach Britton should be a top 20, C+ prospect.

by stwright on Jan 6, 2008 8:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And I'll cry manly tears

If this list is inflated by any Mariners prospects given up for Bedard...

by TIF on Jan 6, 2008 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cory Doyne

Any fans of Doyne out there?? I have heard he may be a candidate for set up man or closer.
I thought he might be a B-/C+ type of guy.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jan 6, 2008 9:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cory

I like what I heard about him from AAA last year. Did anyone get to see him this year?

by kienast on Jan 8, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting Year For O's System

In many ways it was a bad year for the Orioles system. Virtually every major prospect took a step back. Reimold, Olson, Beato, Erbe and Rowell were downgraded by John, while Liz, Snyder, and Hoey clung onto the same grade.

No one from the top 20 last year was upgraded.

However, there was plenty of good news in the draft (#s 1, 7, and 11 on the list), and from moves to bring in talent from outside the system (#s 2, 14, 15, 16).

This system could make a huge leap forward if some of the guys I mentioned in the first paragraph have a bounce back year.

In fact, if Bedard and Roberts are traded for the packages that are rumored to be out there, this could be a top 5 system by opening day.

by dkdc on Jan 7, 2008 2:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brand Premium

Brandon Snyder has already enjoyed a bounce-back year, following an excellent SAL second half by winning a batting title in the Hawaiian Winter League while transitioning from first to third base-- a position he had not played since high school.

It seems odd to dismiss Snyder's resurgence as propaganda while continuing to grade Billy Rowell highly based on little more than draft position.

by Joy in Melville on Jan 7, 2008 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beato

Makes me feel a little better that the Mets refused to give him the signing bonus he demanded. One of the few good moves Omar has made in the past year or so.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 7, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

If Beato was a free agent right now, you wouldn't pay $1MM to have his rights for the first 6 years of his major league career?

Beato hasn't blown away the minors, but he's put up respectable numbers given his age. It's far too early to write him off and pat Omar on the back.

by dkdc on Jan 7, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Overslot drafting

As much as I'd like Omar to play the big market team and overpay draft picks that lesser teams couldn't afford, I am a little proud that he's generally stayed away from that. Although signs point to the termination of that idea in the future.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 7, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

underrated

I look a LOT more optimistically at Beato's 2007 season than other people seem to. DrB gave him a "C" for his 2007 season in his draft class review, and I just don't see it. To me, he seems right on track to be an impact starter in MLB.

by BobbyMac on Jan 8, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which teams' top 20s have NOT been posted yet?

Just curious.

by Sox Puppet on Jan 7, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Waiting

NL: Giants, Rockies, Mets
AL: Indians, Royals, Blue Jays, Rays

by berkowit28 on Jan 7, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mets

have been posted. Heres a link:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/11/25/195122/19

by tbach81 on Jan 8, 2008 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Royals

Those two hadn't shown up in my first Search because they're titled differently (no "for 2008"). I wondered about the Royals since they're one of John's teams. Now Blue Jays this morning. So only Giants, Rockies, Indians, Rays to come.

by berkowit28 on Jan 8, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Berko

by Sox Puppet on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Erbe...

What is the deal with B Erbe? Anyone have any idea as to what the "weird hidden here" is?

by ShootynSilvio on Jan 7, 2008 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Erbe

They didn't let him pitch to his strength. They were working on this and that(mechanics), therefore he got hammered.

by orioole26 on Jan 7, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patton as a B+?

Eh, too each their own I guess, and John does seem to note that it's an aggressive grade, but I just don't see it. I guess it's a small difference between a B+ and a B, and I probably would've said, okay, B, I can buy it. But I just don't see this great pitcher some hint at. I see a best case scenario of a 3, with a 4/5 more likely, as I think his stuff is quite fringy and I'm not sold he has the innings eating potential to make a case for a 3.

by toonsterwu on Jan 7, 2008 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs