This trade rumor is fake right?

As a Mariners fan

I would jump for joy if this happens. Thank goodness they didn't use those prospects to get someone like Cabrera.

by jullberg on Jan 5, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions

worst in baseball history

you must be kidding.

This wouldn't make the worst 200 trades list.

Ervin Santana is crap
and the other 3 have yet to prove anything.

Dating Patsy's little sister!

by Jdog @ Minor League Ball on Jan 5, 2008 5:44 PM EST reply actions

Yup

Not even close.

This is me being polite.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 5, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

I like this deal for the Sox. Santana has great stuff but probably needs a change of scenary. I think Kendricks bat is special, the guy can rake. I still like Adenhart and see him as at least a 3/4, a 2 if things go well. I am not a Rodriguez fan personally.

Why would LAA want Konerko when they a have a young 1B who is as good as (maybe better this year due to age and park factors) offensively and way better defensively?

Personally I am not a big Crede fan either. Neither player will come close to their numbers moving from The Cell to LAA.

by bl on Jan 5, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

+1

On the Cleveland blogs that I read, Adenhart is not mentioned and some have noted that Konerko has either a no trade or an escalator provision that would make this trade difficult. In view of Chicago's recent moves, this does not look like a real deal.

by sdtribefan on Jan 5, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

this trade didn't happen, but...

Konerko doesn't have a no trade clause, BUT if he starts the season with the Sox he will be under the umbrella of the 10/5 rule (10 years of service, 5 with his current club) and then he gains very strong no-trade rights...so it makes a lot of sense for the Sox to try and trade him soon especially after getting Swisher a few days ago.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 7, 2008 5:16 AM EST up reply actions

Who cares....

who has PROVEN anything. For you people who can't PROJECT anything...allow me to help you out.

Howie kendrick is a vertual LOCK to be a more valuable major leagyer the next 5 years than Konerko. Not to mention after that when he will be playing and Kopnerko will not.

Add to this that Kotchman is just as good a player as Konerko as well and just Howie for Konerko isnt a good deal. Also Brandon Wood hasnt been a top prospect the last 3 years just to be held back by Joe Crede has he?

I'm no historian but, this is not a good trade at all for the Angels...even in the short term IMO.

by casejud on Jan 5, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Just as Good

Depends on your definition. He's...

Younger
Cheaper
Better Defensively
Still improving as a hitter

By 2010 it won't even be debatable.

by GregJP on Jan 5, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions

I'm Confused

You have a 24 year old and a 31 year old who had similar years last year, and you want the 31 year old going forward??

As far as being cheap, that is an important factor to consider when trading assets. That seems pretty obvious to me.

by GregJP on Jan 6, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions

Big Picture

Even if he does slightly outproduce him, you still have to take salaries into consideration.

If Kotchman is even 85% of Konerko, the money you save can be used to easily make up that difference at another position.

by GregJP on Jan 6, 2008 2:05 AM EST up reply actions

OMG

Are people really arguing this? Do you have Kotchman on your fantasy team from his glory days in Arkansas when you thought he might become something in the Texas League. BUST is the word used to describe him, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales. Arkansas and Salt Lake looked nice, but once those guys got to the majors they became nothing. Kendrick is supposedly this future "batting champion" as I have seen listed in several places over the past couple years, but I haven't seen it yet (though I think he is extremely projectable and could be sweet). Konerko had a bad year while Crede dropped off, Thome tanked and Dye had the worst first half he has had in 10 years. Konerko did bad on his own, but there weren't exactly a ton of runs and rbi to go around either.

Konerko may not be a perennial .300/30/100/100 guy or anything, but he is way better than my Casey Kotchman. The Angels have been trying to fill that 1B hole for 3 years, there is a reason, they don't have anyone, why do you think they played Darin Erstad at first?

Thank God you aren't running their team, they would have McPherson at 3rd, Aybar at SS, Kendrick at 2nd, Jeff Mathis catching and Kotchman playing 1st, wow, man that lineup makes me want to throw up.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 7, 2008 5:23 AM EST up reply actions

Dude

He just OPS'd .840 in his age-24 season, and was top-5 in the AL in OPS last year before he suffered a concussion from a freak injury. Don't get distracted by shiny new toy syndrome.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 7, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

kotchman

btf commenter on the angels zips projection thread:

it should be noted that after missing the majority of 2006 with mononucleosis, kotchman was hitting .330 in 2007 before getting hit by [a] pitch in the head on june 16, which resulted in a concussion.

before that date, he hit .333/.411/.557. after missing 9 days, he came back, and for the rest of the season, hit .263/.338/.390.

by wily mo on Jan 6, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

thank you, thank you

my seed is spreading all over the internets.

next stop: the national daily newspapers.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 6, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

Konerko vs. Kotchman

Kotchman OPS'd .839 in a park that slightly favors pitchers.

Konerko OPS'd .841 in the most extreme HR-inflating park in the AL (yup, more than Ameriquest).

The park-adjusted stats agree: Kotchman just put up a 119 OPS+ as a 24-year-old, Konerko put up a 116 OPS+ as a 31-year-old. EqA: Kotchman .297, Konerko .290.

Kotchman is an asset with the glove, Konerko is a liability.

Kotchman hasn't sniffed his statistical prime, Konerko's at the age where guys with old player skills begin to decline.

Kotchman was a more valuable player in 2007. It's a very good bet that by next year it won't be even close.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

You don't think..

that Konerko's a liability with the glove? If that's really what you're saying, you don't watch enough baseball.

Looking to ESPN for advanced stats is kind of like going to the Christian Science mother church for chemo treatments. Their park factors are laughable.

Here are some better ones:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/weighted_park_factors_2003_2005/

Those are 3-year weighted averages from 2003-2005. Chicago's +.38 HR inflation is the highest in the majors. Coors, in comparison, weighs in at only +.24

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/

This approach puts the Cell tied for third most offense-inflating park in baseball. Angels stadium is 16th.

http://firstinning.com/pf/?type=basic&lg=AL&min=250&season=2007

This one has the Rogers Centre as the only AL stadium beating out the Cell for hr inflation.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week44/

THT's less experimental park factors get a little writeup here. Doesn't give full factors, but includes this gem from Dave Studeman:

U.S. Cellular in Chicago has been the majors' best home run park in recent years, but it's been eclipsed this year by Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park (1.43) and Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark (1.31).

So...historically #1, became #3 out of 30 this year.

The metrics disagree on exactly how extreme the offensive inflation is, methodology and scale being different in each case. All of them agree that the cell is one of the most friendly hitting environments in the major leagues.

If Kotchman's succeeding in a park that's shown over thousands of plate appearances is otherwise neutral, that's actually more of a reason to prefer him. The vast majority of evidence suggests that Angels' Stadium slightly suppresses offense overall. If Kotchman's swing is taylor-made for success there, you don't want to mess with that.

More likely it's random noise over a 200-AB sample, though.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

Man

You're ridiculously set in your conclusions.

Angels' stadium's dimensions didn't change in the past year. The fences weren't moved and there wasn't some massive shift in global weather patterns that would change the way a park plays in any significant way. The way you look at park effects is to look at as much data as humanly possible and look at general trends. 3-year weighted averages are ALWAYS going to be better than a single year, even if it's the most recent, unless the physical characteristics are somehow different.

You're choosing to place 100% faith in a 200-AB sample above exhaustive studies that encompass tens of thousands of at-bats. You say "look past the hr inflation" - latching onto the one piece of data that you think doesn't totally sink the idea that The Cell = Angels' Stadium - and ignore the fact that if you lop off a few HRs a year from Konerko's totals he looks a lot less like a perennial all star and a lot more like a run of the mill poor defensive 1B on the wrong side of 30.

Konerko's career totals have been significantly inflated by playing in one of the most offense-friendly environments in the major leagues.

You really can't twist the data to show that Angels' stadium is a better hitters' park than the Cell. It's not possible. Reality will always get in the way.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

ESPN

Seriously, the ESPN list is beyond worthless. It's using the same formula for park factors that was in place before the unbalanced schedule and interleague play made teams' schedules radically unequal. A blanket RS(home) vs RS (away) comparison is meaningless. Those factors gave a reasonable facsimile of what park effects would have been back in 1995. Today they don't.

Parks don't change that dramatically. There's noise in the statistics the smaller the sample sizes get and different team balances affect the way they "play" in a particular year, which is why you look at as many sources as possible to get a general feel for how the numbers play out. Even the people who do the best work on determining accurate park factors (THT, BBTF, and Baseball Prospectus) acknowledge that any 1 season's result is bound to be inaccurate.

"Look at Kotchman's numbers in the minors. Then take a look at the 3 year weighted list you posted again. What does it say about Salt Lake City? A hitters park right? So........? You still can't see my point can you?"

If my opinion of Casey Kotchman's future output vs. Paul Konerko's was in any way influenced by Kotchman's minor league statistics from several years ago, you might have a point. It's not, and you're grasping at straws.

When two guys put up essentially the same line, only one of them is 32, a bad defender, and plays in a hitters' park and one is 25, a good defender, and plays in a neutral park, I'll take the second guy every time.

And as someone else said, the question isn't even Kotchman vs. Konerko! The question is whether Konerko's a big enough upgrade to justify giving up an all-star quality second baseman. The answer to that should be glaringly obvious.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree.

Both ESPN's park factors and their player rankings are good sources of comedy, and are thus not worthless.

by elrey34 on Jan 7, 2008 3:00 AM EST up reply actions

Pitching

based on that link they were also 4th in ERA at home.

So those numbers say it was a great hitting park for them and a great pitching park for them. Hmmm.

Or maybe they just played great at home?

ps: Chone had about as big a split difference as you'll find. Maybe they water the infield for the speedsters?

by pedrophile on Jan 7, 2008 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

Chone as well

look at his numbers. And he's a slap hitter. I wouldn't be surprised if they water the IF for him and a few others. This is also done by Minnesota.

by pedrophile on Jan 8, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions

Kotchman vs Konerko

2007 Stats
Konerko-259/351/490 OPS-841
Kotchman 296/372/467 OPS-839

Konerko played in a much more friendly hitters environment as well. Also keep in mind Kotchman is a much much better defender and seven years younger.

No brainer who I would rather have.

by bl on Jan 5, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

re

If I was guaranteed a healthy Kotchman, I'd agree, but in Kotchman's healthiest season so far, he still had less PAs than in Konerko's least healthy season of the last 10 years. Konerko has put in over 600 PA in 8 of the last 9 seasons, and 500 in the other.

Still a no-brainer?

Not saying I'd do the deal, ftr.

by bootsy on Jan 5, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions

Kotchman

Getting mono isn't your typical "health issue", so let's cut him some slack there.

by GregJP on Jan 6, 2008 12:28 AM EST up reply actions

Funny

This would be debatable if the deal WAS Kotchman for konerko but, the point is they ALLREADY HAVE Kotchman! lol Deal your future batting title winning 2B for another 1B??? Then its worse as they are rumored to be giving up even more.

by casejud on Jan 6, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

+1

That is pretty much the point. This trade is not a big(if at all) upgrade at 1B and weakens them at 2B. Why trade a potential top five player at his position for a player that barely (if at all) upgrades another position? That is why this trade would be awful for LAA. (As an A's fan I would love to see Kendrick leave the division. When we are ready to compete in 5 years, I'd much rather the Angels have Konerko/someone else than Kotchman/Kendrick.)

by bl on Jan 6, 2008 3:12 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah..

Old school scouting GMs NEVER make the mistake of overvaluing veterans and looking at stats without context.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

Defense

To start with I live in the Chicagoland area and watch Konerko on a regular basis. As an A's fan I watch many Angels games as well (via Extra Innings.) From my observations it is very obvious Kotchman is an above average 1B and Konerko is average at best.

In 2007 Kotchman's fielding PCT was .997, Konerko was .996. Not a huge difference.

Kotchman had an OOZ (plays made on balls out of the zone) of 32, Konerko's was 25. Again, not a huge difference, but those 7 extra plays are nice to have.

The big difference is in RZR (revised zone rating-the proportion of balls hit into a fielders zone that were converted for outs.) Kotch-.809, Kon-.707. For every ten balls hit in their range, Kotchman makes slightly one more play than Konerko (at a very slightly higher percentage.) Over the course of a season, that is a much much better.

by bl on Jan 6, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions

didn't say worst

said one of the worst, and yes, this would be a terrible trade for the Angels. Doesn't make them a better team at all and weakens them in the coming years.

by andwoo on Jan 5, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

Konerko's

OPS was identical to Kotchman who they already have. Crede is an awful offensive player coming off major back surgery. Kendrick has now had over 500 abs and has 40+ doubles 9 homers 3 triples hitting 322 this past year, Howie Kendick is going to be a stud. THis is a terrible deal for the Angels if true. TERRIBLE.

by Peter North on Jan 5, 2008 5:49 PM EST reply actions

-1

Yeah, Crede is awful .283/.323/.506 in his last healthy year, 2006. Given that the average 3B has an OPS of .805 I guess half the league is awful by your standards. Then throw in his plus defense and you're got a historically bad player on your hands. Declining strikeouts, increasing power numbers too. OMG, what a nightmare. Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 5, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

Question

Why does everyone assume that Kotchman who just posted career best numbers will continue to improve then turn around and assume that Crede won't? Sounds very hypocritical to me. Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 6, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

because in his last healthy MiLB season

he hit .370 in AA and AAA. the dude is a pure hitter, and has established a very high level of performance in the minors, and now at the major league level

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 6, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

The Cell

You really need to understand park factors. A .500 slg in the Cell from a 28 year old 3B who's never sniffed that kind of production before or after is in no way impressive.

His OPS+ in his career year was 107. For an everyday 3B that's just about exactly league average.

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 6, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Wow.

I hope that deal is fake. We will see.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 5, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions

ESPN.com doesn't have anything

You figure there'd be solid comms betwixt the web boys and the TV division.

by grover on Jan 5, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions

Trade

Not as bad as it looks, Angels get a power hitter that immediately helps them for Kendrick. They are trying to win this year. Crede helps fill 3rd.
this sets them up for Santana.

by ranjan on Jan 5, 2008 6:17 PM EST reply actions

Who are they going to trade for Santana

E. Santana, H. Kendrick, and N. Adenheart have been mentioned in pretty much every Santana rumor I read...

by Dfarth on Jan 5, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

has this been reported anywhere else?

has this been seen anywhere else? If this is true, then Chicago is all about changing their roster and bringing in some interesting players.

by jrbro on Jan 5, 2008 6:43 PM EST reply actions

Sweeten the Pot

FOX Sports is indicating that Kenny Williams is trying to include Dye, Quentin, and Vlad as part of the deal also. Apparently the Angels are still talking!!??

Anything to take NFL playoffs off the front burner in LA.

see www.rumoursrus.com

by kenwarren on Jan 5, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply actions

nice

kenny williams is trying to trade Vlad?

by lakerfan030 on Jan 5, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

If he can...

get good value for Vlad, THAT would certainly win him Executive of the Year. Trading players from another team to help your team is something even Billy Beane has trouble doing, as he always ends up throwing in talent from his own team in 3-way deals as well. :>>

by BobbyMac on Jan 5, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

read again

post says trying to include Vlad in deal ie coming WhiteSox way.....

But sounds like a drug induced rumor to me anyways.

bc

by bluechipper on Jan 5, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

This has got to be fake

but as an A's fan, I would piss myself if this happened!

And being in Chicago now, I think WhiteSox fans would piss themselves too, and not just to keep warm!

by Zonis on Jan 5, 2008 9:53 PM EST reply actions

My take...

I recognize that my baseball outlook has been more shaped by Strat-O-Matic than I care to admit, but I really don't understand the Angels. That team needs a lefty presence in the middle of their lineup. Life isn't a roto team. I - personally - think that offering the trucks full o' money to Posada instead of Hunter would have helped the team more in the W/L column. And acquiring Konerko (much less Crede) is just beyond comprehension to me.

Would Crede be an upgrade from Wood/Figgins at 3b? Certainly on defense if he's healthy, but I think I'd take my chances on Wood, with Figgy as my backup plan.

Would Konerko produce more RC/27 than Kotchman? Even that is debatable, as people have noted above. But, worse, it removes their best lefty bat (or removes one of Matthews/Anderson, if Vlad plays the OF and Kotchman 1b).

Since they can't turn back time and get Posada, nor can they get M-Cab (who is a righty, but is so great that if you can get him, you get him, regardless of batting side) my opinion is that this team should be trying hard to work a deal for Dunn. Dusty seems to undervalue bases-on-balls anyway, and Garrett Anderson is a "proven run producer". Anderson+something for Dunn could actually make sense for both teams, though I wouldn't let him go if I was in Krivsky's position.

Also, I wouldn't let Kendrick go, period. Only in a rare case like M-Cab being available would his name even be considered. I think this is just the ESPN 1000 guys wishing... it's not even on the espnradio1000.com web site.

by BobbyMac on Jan 5, 2008 9:53 PM EST reply actions

Agree

I said it earlier in the post but, i dont even think a straight-up deal of Konerko for Kendrick is a good deal in the short term, which is what this deal is all about, let alone long term.

It is kinda overreacting to the need for longball power which Kotchman and Kendrick will BOTH grow into anyways.

Crede is a solid veteran 3b but, he as unnecessary as i see it. The Angels haver a premier prospect with a year of AAA under his belt and Figgins and Izturis to fall back on.

by casejud on Jan 5, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

Kendrick scares me

more than any other player in the AL West. He's also one of my favorite players, so I will rejoice if he leaves the division.

by elrey34 on Jan 6, 2008 1:57 AM EST up reply actions

Really?

Vladimir Guerrero is a damn good player...

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by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jan 7, 2008 3:35 AM EST up reply actions

I will laugh my flippin' ass off

if this is true. Kendrick alone is better than Konerko NOW.

PLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOH!!!

by elrey34 on Jan 6, 2008 1:51 AM EST reply actions

Still believes it portends Santana trade

Like I posted earlier, this is a precursor to the Angels getting Santana for Kotchman, Wood and a pitcher(s), (J Walden if eligible to be traded ?)

by ranjan on Jan 6, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply actions

Even still,

I'd be really happy. I mean, the Halos may have locked up the AL West crown, but still no Howie Kendrick for 5 more years!!

by elrey34 on Jan 6, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

Rumor

I've heard the Angles give up Matthews Jr, Figgins & Santana for the 2 of the Sox. That would make more sense. GMJ could play CF for the sox and Konerko would take over DH for the Halos.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 6, 2008 11:02 AM EST reply actions