What are the White Sox thinking really?

by RollingWave on Jan 4, 2008 2:23 AM EST Comment 24 comments

The White Sox's moves so far....

1.Trade Garland for Cabrera
2.Trade lots of prospect for Swisher
3.Sign Linebrink

This look like moves of a borderline contender hoping to go over the top.

This was a list of team that had a worse Pythag record than the White Sox last year...

Oh wait... it's not a list...

Worest Pythag in 07

Tampa 67-95
White Sox 67 - 95 <----------

Yes, they were the second worest pythag team.... and i'm not just talking about the AL here. they were 29th out of 30 teams!!!!

They need HUGE improvements from SEVERAL spots to have any sort of a turnaround. frankly these 3 moves simply aren't nearly enough to even put them into the wildcard talk barring a absalute perfect storm. let alone having a serious shot at the division.

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Yeah

Adding Swisher, Cabrera, and Linebrink isn't going to put them over the top. I mean, this was a ridiculously bad team in 2007. Third to last in MLB in runs and 5th to last in OPS. The pitching was just as bad: 25th in MLB in team ERA and 3rd worst in the AL. These moves might allow them to not finish last in the AL central in 2008, if that's worth gutting the upper echelon talent in the farm system and giving up 2 top draft picks to the Brewers. It was one thing to trade away top prospects like he did in the past when the Sox were in the mix for the division, and these are the kinds of moves now that an 85 or 90 win team makes to get over the top to build a solid playoff team. Sorry Kenny, taking one of the worst teams in the league and adding a couple solid players to it doesn't really make you a contender.

by AucklandGM on Jan 4, 2008 4:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Kenny could find pitching

then it's not so bad. But well, I'm not sure he can find the pitching. I doubt Crede brings back a quality starter. Maybe they could shop Fields to land an arm. Maybe they get lucky. Has happened. Still think the value of the deal was fine for both parties, but the logic of this whole offseason for Kenny has been a tad odd as I think they should be rebuilding. I'm not sure, with these additions, that they are definitively better than the Twins, even if the Twins ship off Santana (maybe I'm overvaluing the Twins a bit).

by toonsterwu on Jan 4, 2008 6:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not better than the Twins

I think the Twins have improved some from last year and the Sox have regressed. Why do they need two shortstops again? What they needed was an arm that could eat innings. Oh, wait, they traded that for their second shortstop. That move was the real head scratcher for me.

Trading more pitching prospects and the only CF prospect left in the system for Swisher is not as big of a head scratcher. But it's close.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 4, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed with OP

well, mostly I agree...

I think it also bears noting that Joe Crede was their only substantial injury for the 2007 season. It's not even like the Cardinals - losing both Carpenter and Rolen for the entire season - where they can point to injured players coming back strong to help them rebound. Sure, Thome, Podsednik, and Dye all missed some time, but is that really unexpected at this stage of their careers?

Having agreed with OP, I will note this: Kenny Williams has been nothing short of amazing at timing his pitcher trades. If I was another GM, I'd be VERY wary of acquiring the next Freddy Garcia or even Brandon McCarthy.

Also, I think that the trade for Quentin was a huge coup. As much as we can rave about Chris Carter, it was A-ball where he hit the ball, and he is just a (bad) first-baseman. I'm not saying I wouldn't like to have him in my team's system, but 12 months ago, if Quentin had been traded for anything short of a major star, it would have been shocking. Personally, I thought Quentin was a tad overrated last year, but I - along with everyone I read anywhere - was convinced that he was at the very least an above-average MLB player. I'd be surprised if he didn't rebound to be just that in 2008.

P.S. The Linebrink signing is one of the worst I've ever seen. Ever. And that covers a lot of time. I honestly don't see how it can be defended from any angle. He's not even a very good pitcher, in addition to the long-term commitment to a reliever, the high price tag, and the draft picks being lost. Getting 2 of those 4 things wrong would make it bad... going 0-for-4 makes it ridiculous.

by BobbyMac on Jan 4, 2008 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

P.P.S.

Yes, I know Rolen played a lot, but he played hurt, and probably shouldn't have played. :) I just re-read my post, and realized I'd left that as I first typed it.

by BobbyMac on Jan 4, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if you're going to say that about rolen

you should probably say the same thing about dye. he shouldn't have been playing through his various leg issues during the first half - and it showed in his numbers.

some would point to the podsednik injury, as well. i have no rational explanation for it - and as a podsednik disliker it pains me - but the sox, for whatever reason, played better when he was in the lineup. you can see the "podsednik paradox" series done at this sox blog for an inquiry into this.

http://soxmachine.com/blogs/soxmachine/archive/2007/12/16/11576.aspx

at any rate, injuries or not, the sox were still a bad team and it's hard to see what they're doing this offseason other than making a team that will finish above .500. the sox pretty much have nothing in the cupboard anymore and it's hard to see them being anything other than atrocious in 2010 and beyond.

by larry on Jan 4, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dye v. Rolen?

Oh come on...
Dye's career batting line is .275/.337/.486. When you consider age and park, expecting about that from him last year was reasonable. He hit .258/.317/.486. That's less, but not out of bounds.

Rolen's career batting line is .283/.372/.507. When you consider age and park, he could have been expected to drop off somewhat, but not to "crater" to .265/.331/.398.

I do agree that Dye's injuries made his already-fading range almost non-existant at times last year. That did the pitchers no favors.

That said, St. Louis had much more forewarning of Rolen's problems, whereas Chicago was caught off guard by Dye's. So, it would be reasonable to argue that STL made its own bed... I was just pointing out that in addition to being BAD, the 2007 White Sox really didn't have the frequent excuse of losing lots of PT from top-tier players.

Perhaps STL was a bad counter-example, but my point remains... I don't think Chicago suffered an excessive amount of damage from injuries.

by BobbyMac on Jan 4, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rightly or wrongly

much more was expected from dye. i think it was also reasonable for fans to look at the projections for him prior to the season - take your pick of ZiPS, PECOTA, or james - and expect closer to that instead of his career line, which obviously can be misleading. same thing for rolen, of course, but his career line was in line with his projections.

the sox, while not losing PT, should have expected some decline from their aged players. contreras, injured or not, obviously "cratered." others like konerko and thome declined about as they should be expected to.

at any rate, i don't think we're arguing much differently from one another. the sox were predicted to go 72-90 by BP and, lo and behold, they went 72-90. bad team.

by larry on Jan 4, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

72-90

The radio guys here in Chicago give BP a lot of credit for that 72-win projection, but if you go and review the individual player projections, they were categorically wrong... it was more like their errors cancelling out.

PECOTA team offensive projection: .260/.336/.436
Real life: .246/.319/.404

PECOTA Buehrle projection: 4.90 ERA
Real life: 3.63 ERA

PECOTA Jenks projection: 1.33 WHIP
Real life: 0.89 WHIP (!)

In general, PECOTA predicted a crappy rotation with a reasonable, though still light, offense and a bad bullpen. It got the bullpen right en masse, though the most important member of that pen was far better than projected. In reality, the rotation wasn't so bad, Jenks was stellar, and the offense was beyond bad.

Article on this topic: link

by BobbyMac on Jan 4, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

who listens to radio?

good lord. especially sports radio in chicago.

by larry on Jan 4, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One Substantial Injury?

The problem is, 10 games here and there adds up. They missed an extra 10 out of Thome, an extra 10 out of Dye. Buehrle missed a handful of starts. Yes, stuff like this happens, but when a team wins, it doesn't. Look at the Indians this year, the Tigers of 06 and the White Sox of 05. Each one of those teams was essentially completely healthy.

Lets not forget that Dye and Konerko may have just had the worst seasons of their professional careers-that is when you keep in mind the trends their careers were showing up until that point. I think anyone a substantially better season from both players.

Also, the Linebrink contract in and of itself is brutal, but consider who the ChiSox set up man was last year. They had one reliever with an ERA below 4.75 not named Jenks with at least 20 innings pitched...ONE! At the very least Linebrink should provide a strong and capable bridge to Jenks, he may no longer be capable of a 2 ERA, especially in the AL, but something under 4 is definitely reasonable. SO while this contract will look disgusting in two years if Linebrink falls off, consider that in two years the team will most likely be with the star power of Thome and Dye, so really, whats the difference?

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by bheikoop on Jan 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Swisher Deal

Swisher is a good young, cheap power hitter who really hasn't quite maxed out yet.

That being said, the Sox have plenty of corner OFers, 1B, and DHs. I think putting him in CF longterm is a huge mistake personally.

As for giving up specs, they are just that. 3 unproven guys with nice upsides, but the odds are against all 3 maxing out their potential.

That being said, I wouldn't have given up 3 such highly touted specs for Nick Swisher personally.

Solid rotation-check Imposing lineup-check Hammer in the pen-not even close.

by sportznut3081 on Jan 4, 2008 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Swish

As an A's fan I HATE this move for Oakland. Not many switch-hitters can hit 35 HR's playing their home games in Oakland at age 25. With his patience and power he is a very valuable offensive player. He's above average at corner OF and 1B and can play a decent CF. I can see him hitting 40 bombs at The Cell.

I am not a big fan of Sweeney and I am in the same boat as John that the power will never come. I think Gio is a 4-5 and do not trust the stuff to translate to major league success. I love De los Santos and I thrilled to have him, but at his age he is such a gamble.

by bl on Jan 4, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Last Place

I still think the White Sox could finish in last place in the Central.

by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 4, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

highly doubtful

just their core offense of Konerko, Swisher, Thome, and Dye should keep them out of the cellar, given that they have a decent enough pitching staff with Vazquez, Buhrle, Linebrink, and Jenks.

Adding the wildcards of Orlando, Crede, Fields, and Quentin providing upside/breakout potential, they should be around a .500 team.

by Galt on Jan 4, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zips

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_chicago_white_sox/

Zips sees Thome as the only offensive player on the White Sox that will hit over the average player at his position.

They had a cute little run and won a flag, but this team is just not that good anymore. Also counting on Thome, Dye, Konerko to stay healthy isn't exactly a sobering thought either.

by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 4, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if Zips said it....

Konerko hasn't hit less than 30 homers since 2003. Nor has he had a sub .350 OBP, and he's had a sub .500 OBP onces (last year - his worst in 5 seasons).

In the past five years, Konerko has been a steady .280/.370/.550 performer with 35-40 homers. But Zips says .260/.350/.475 in his 31 year old season. So it must be fact.

Konerko, Thome, and Swisher are a top 5 offensive trio in the AL. Cleveland, Boston, Detroit, and NY are better.

Dye, Crede, and Fields all also have upside.

I'm certainly not picking them for the playoffs, but to say they are one of the worst teams in just wrong.

by Galt on Jan 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm Going Out There...

This team will win the division if they can be healthy. I can't see why Konerko and Dye won't rebound. Swisher is an upgrade over the terrible players they had manning CF last year. Quentin, while still young and raw, should have a solid season, besting Podsednik by a mile! Fields has his rookie year under his belt. I imagine Crede will be shopped for some relief help...

Also, consider how many players had the worst season of their careers? At least when you consider the direction they were trending. Sure a slip was reasonable out of Dye, Konerko and Pierzynski, but the lines these guys put up were not a slip, it was a nose dive!

I'm not a ChiSox fan, and as an Indians fan, this team scares me more then the Tigers. At least in Chicago they have more then one reliable pitcher, and with Linebrink the bullpen has to be considered vastly superior.

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by bheikoop on Jan 4, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Perhaps I'm biased, but with the Tigers I see an All Star lineup, a solid if unspectacular rotation, and a shaky pen.

I absolutely believe they are a solid team, and solid World Series contender.

Now, the Angels, Red Sox, and Indians will all be tough as well.

The Yankees will make some noise, but I think they'll need more experience from their new "toys" in the rotation, unless they get Johan.

I don't think Minnesota or Chicago is going to be a pushover by any means, but I still see the AL Central being a two horse race between Cleveland and Detroit, barring some major injuries.

Even with that said, it might not be a big enough difference to knock either team down far enough.

In Todd Jones (*gulp*) we trust?

by sportznut3081 on Jan 4, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I agree, but its still a curious route to go.

I'm not saying you mail it in and declare the Indians and Tigers the cream of the crop in the Central (although they are), but you also shouldn't sell off your best specs unless you have a legit shot at competing in your own division, let alone for the World Series.

The AL is tough, and the AL Central is probably the toughest division in all of baseball these days.

If for some reason Johan doesn't get dealt, and Liriano is able to return to form, Minnesota will be a thorn in everyone's side as well.

In Todd Jones (*gulp*) we trust?

by sportznut3081 on Jan 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well...

one of the ways to achieve a better Pythag is to score more runs. Swisher, Quentin, and even Cabrera will help that and if Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Crede can rebound they can be a team that can score alot of runs.

They'll need to find some pitching though. Maybe KW decides to go after Colon, or Jennings and they have a bounce back year.

Still not sure what to make of the Linebrink signing though.

by KCSlayer on Jan 4, 2008 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

More Swisher trade thoughts...

I've had a day to digest the Swisher deal, and I think it comes to this: Which side of the trade will have more "market value" in 12 months? Everyone wants to be apocryphal about Williams here in Chicago - noting (much as the allusion to Keith Law did) that the Sox aren't going to contend anyway, so who cares? But look at it another way... Swisher's entering his age-27 season, moving to a park that's played great for power hitters. He hits ~200 fly balls a year... if just 20% of those make it out, he's at 40 HR, and Thome has been over 25% for each of his 2 seasons. If Swisher has that ol' John Benson "Age 27 with experience" boost next year, who knows what could happen? Will his season be park-aided? Sure. But if Kenny tries to trade him, there are still many who won't fully grasp it, if history is any indication. I think the A's have to catch lightning in a bottle to come out ahead in the next 12 months on this deal. And I don't think that's short-sighted of me... I'm just stating that in 12 months, Kenny will have increased his fungible assets. And who wouldn't want to do that?

by BobbyMac on Jan 4, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

who wouldn't?

maybe someone who is willing to wait a little longer than 12 months to get a better increase.

at any rate, it will be a lot longer than twelve months before it can be determined who (if anyone) gets the better end of this deal. higher risk on the A's side but higher reward as well.

by larry on Jan 4, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher deal

the Swisher deal isn't too terrible i suppose, if they were selling their vets (which they aren't and don't look like they well) while doing this I miiiiight be able to think of this as a decent move.

but their not. they'll waste the next two year of his prime playing futile chase at the playoff while the keep falling closer to the bottom. while he spend the final two year rebuilding.. and then leaves ... (or decline)

the trade would have been reasonable if they were going into rebuild on the run mode. but that's clearly not what their doing. which makes the deal terrible. cause it'll waste Swisher's prime AND the team continue to have a illusion that they have a shot

by RollingWave on Jan 5, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs