Fernando Martinez Prospect Ranking Question

by Maine Man on Jan 31, 2008 5:31 PM EST

Keith Law list Fernando Martinez as the 10th best prospect in baseball, while Kevin Goldstein ranked him the 51st best prospect in baseball.. Ken Rosenthal recently talked about Fernando Martinez being a "teenage hitting machine" So why the big difference in these lists?

I don't know much about Law/Goldstein but I would have to guess that Goldstein thought process is that just because he played in AA as a 18 year old doesn't mean he's a top prospect. I would think that Goldstein is looking for players who have produced more so in the minors, then just talent/ceiling..

Then on the other hand I could see Keith Law thought process being that this kid held his own in AA at an extremely young age, and has a lot of projection..

Where do I think F-Mart belongs? I would say he belongs around 25th just because he hasn't exactly hit like a beast yet.. I'll be waiting to see where scout.com, and baseball america ranks Fernando Martinez..

Where would you guys rank F-Mart, and what can you tell me about the way Goldstein/Law rank prospects?

Poll

Where Does Fernando Martinez Belong On Prospect Lists?

71-80

0 votes

81-90

1 votes

91-100

6 votes

1-10

19 votes

11-20

37 votes

21-30

38 votes

31-40

23 votes

41-50

17 votes

51-60

5 votes

61-70

6 votes

152 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Goldstein

I believe he commented specifically on this. It was something like Martinez projects as a LF defensively, and hasn't shown the power to be standout at that position.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 31, 2008 5:40 PM EST reply actions

power

it's funny -- outside of Jay Bruce (and possibly LaPorta), i would have said that F-Mart is the only current minor leaguer with a legitimate shot at being a 40-homer-a-year player. i guess "shown" is certainly true, but i thought scouts really saw a lot in him.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 31, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

Martinez doesn't have that power

BA said maybe Carlos Lee in the future. I personally think that Milledge will still be the best out of the trio of Gomez, Milledge, and Martinez.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 31, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

he said "projects", not "shown", I don't know. I'm sure someone here will correct me. Point is, though - not enough pop to be a star in LF.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 31, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

interesting

maybe my love of him is misplaced if scouts have really changed their projections that much.

of course, unlike Bravesin07, i'm not simply going to re-place my love with whomever has been "not-a-Met" for the longest.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 31, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

Martinez

First of all can the guy even stay healthy enough to flash all of this so-called "POTENTIAL".

by Jay212033 on Jan 31, 2008 6:16 PM EST reply actions

+1

I've stated it many times on this website, but my biggest concern is health. If you're 18 and you cannot stay healthy, what's gonna happen at 25 when you have more muscle and likely less flexibility??? You can talk about potential and projection all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that the chances of F-Mart ever even coming close are getting smaller and smaller with each injury.

by guru4u on Jan 31, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

they said the same thing

About Jose Reyes.

by jeck on Jan 31, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions

51st best prospect

30 teams/ 51 prospects = that meens Martinez, on an average big league team, ranks as a 1.7 best prospect. Basically, he'd be the #2 prospect on more than half of all clubs's systems and #1 on about a third.

So by rating Martinez 51st I dont think Golstein is saying that at all. He's saying there are only better players in the minors and if it was besed just on what a guy COULD become, he'd probably be higher.

I rank him higher than 51st and lower than 10th but, shoot, who knows? If I could watch a few abs I might feel more comfortable projeccting him. Personally, I'm kinda impresssed with what he was able to in AA but, thats just me I guess.

by casejud on Feb 1, 2008 2:53 AM EST reply actions

hmmm

actually i was surprised with goldstein's low ranking of f-mart as well. i don't think of him so highly as many others, but was stunned that he fell out of the top 30.
i dont think the reason goldstein rates him so low is because he hasn't actually delivered those large numbers yet, cauz he rated villalona in the top 30, and he hasn't even played a full season of pro ball.
my best guess/theory is that the analysts have different projections in mind when they see f-mart. sorta like the what people thought when they say delmon a few yrs ago. some thought he's so big and powerful now he'll hit 40hrs annually in his prime, while others thought his body wasn't anything special but just maxed out early.

by bk11 on Feb 1, 2008 3:16 AM EST reply actions

I think it's the injury

He only played 60 games last year, and I believe his hamate injury was more serious than Gomez's. It could take some time before he's 100%. Basically, Law may be right to include him amongst the guys with a chance to rank #1 overall in a year, in that he does have the potential to be that good. But with the fact that there's so little to go on last year, plus he may not be 100% for at least the first half of this season, he's not the guy I'd bet on making that big a jump yet.

by acerimusdux on Feb 1, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions