Not A Rookie: Delmon Young

by John Sickels on Jan 31, 2008 3:10 PM EST in News Comment 23 comments

So, as a Twins fan, am I happy about having Delmon Young?

Well, sure. He's only 22 and has 771 major league at-bats under his belt. In those at-bats, he's hit .293/.319/.419. Scouts still love him. He has incredible bat speed, and appears to be one of the rare hitters who can produce decent numbers even with dismal plate discipline. He hit 38 doubles last year, and I suspect that his power is only going to increase as he matures and boosts his skills to match his tools.

We don't have PECOTAs for 2007 to look at yet, but his Sim Scores are fascinating: The top five are Tris Speaker, Rocco Baldelli, Roberto Clemente, Joe Kelley, and Mike Tiernan. When three of your top five Sim Scores are Hall of Famers, you have something going for you. Tiernan was an excellent player in the late 19th century. Baldelli has been disappointing, of course, due to injuries. PECOTA is a better system than Sim Scores though, and I'll be very interested to see what it comes up with. Clemente seems like the best comp all things considered, in terms of what Young's ultimate ceiling could be.

The two things to worry about with Young are his strike zone judgment and his attitude. I suspect that he will gradually improve his plate discipline, though this is not something that the Twins really emphasize. It's not like he has to become a walk machine, but even marginal improvements in his selectivity should help him reach his ultimate potential.

The attitude issue is another matter. Is this just a matter of maturity? Will he outgrow it? Are the problems overblown? The Minnesota front office has usually looked a lot at issues like makeup and work ethic, and I doubt they would have made the deal if Delmon's issues were intractable. I guess we'll find out.

As for projecting performance, Bill James has Delmon projected to hit .301/.331/.446 this year. ZIPS has him at .292/.323/.424. My numbers are .287/.321/.437. We are all in the same ballpark basically.

If he keeps his head on straight and makes even marginal improvement in his zone judgment, Young will be an excellent player.

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Delmon

I think his attitude issues are overblown. I met him at Twins fest this year and he was the friendliest player there. He even remembered me from I was getting autographs at the Devil Rays hotel last April.

by BenB on Jan 31, 2008 3:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

twinsfest

i can't imagine a player misbehaving during "twins-fest."

by websterjtc on Jan 31, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

true

But some are pretty unpleasant. They just take your item and sign it without a word and don't look at you. Young was the nicest guy there.

by BenB on Jan 31, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Milton Bradley....

was also the nicest player at the A's Fanfest before his last season with the A's.

by Zabat on Feb 1, 2008 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

Ok, I didn't realize my innocent comment would be met with so much opposition. Lighten up you guys.

by BenB on Feb 1, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey BenB

I'm sure I'm not the only one that appreciates your sharing that comment - I imagine that a good number of us have been to those kinds of events...I've gone to such Blue Jay events; couple of years ago, Josh Towers was really personable, great with the kids...makes you root for players like that just a bit more, and there's nothing wrong with that...

by almantle on Feb 1, 2008 8:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pirates fest

Ian Snell was a complete ass hole...and many of the players did as was stated before and just sign whatever and are ready for the next.

you'd think in an organization like the pirates where they dont acutally win and need all the fans they can get that they'd be under strict rules from management to be ultra nice.

not so...

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 1, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I would say half the players come off as dicks at these types of events. At Dbacks fan fest and their pick a seat promotion they run for season ticket holders I have noticed that Connor Jackson is a turd, Eric Byrnes has no game and tried to hit on anything with boobs, and Tony Clark is one of the nicest guys in the game

by ScottAZ on Feb 1, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Byrnesie

Was pretty cool when I met him in Oakland a few years back. Spent more time signing than anyone. And despite hecklers 5 feet from him due to some early season troubles, Arthur Rhodes was mighty cool too.

by Big J on Feb 1, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Byrnes was a nice enough guy. Took time to talk to everyone and very enthusiastic. He has to be one of the cheesiest dorks I have ever met though. His pickup lines on girls were terrible and he chased after one chic as she walked to the restroom. he hit on at least 7-8 chics and not one seemed the least bit interested which was pretty amusing to watch from afar

by ScottAZ on Feb 1, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I enjoyed the comment too. Ignore the bristles.

by Big J on Feb 1, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't it interesting....

I have never looked at sim-scores before, but if they are at all similar to PECOTA, it really amazes me that players like Tris Speaker, Tiernan, and Kelley in his comp list. With PECOTA you seem to see very little variation outside of different eras. Whenever I come across a guy who has those comps of yesteryear I always seem to take notice, as they have very drastic skill sets it seems. Players like Carlos Silva and Ichiro have been the poster children of this phenomena for me

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 31, 2008 4:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sim Scores

Bill James invented Sim Scores as a toy for his Politics of Glory book on the HOF. Sim Scores are not park or era adjusted because James didn't think HOF voters worried about such things.

But, since James invented it, its caught on... and I gotta admit they are a lot of fun. PECOTA is much more serious about its park/era adjustments.

Anyone with more than a year of experience through age 21 is going to have some nice comps because its often the HOF-ers who come up that young. You have to click the "Compare Stats" link and check out the park/era-adjusted numbers like OPS+ or ERA+ to see how good the comp is. Doing that for Young, you see he trails Speaker and Tiernan by over 40 OPS+. Clemente is a better comp. Clemente was quite raw as a youngster. Depending on your viewpoint, he was either a late bloomer or called up too young.

by DavidFoss on Feb 1, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

looking around on younger players, a few guys that strike me...

Melky Cabrera's comp is a hell lot better than you would expect.

Sizemore / Wright / Reyes' comp isn't quiet as good as you think.

Robinson Cano and Joe Mauer are the same person!

Prince Fielder's comp is godlike.

Carl Crawford's comp list is awsome.

I find this midly amusing. Kevin Youkilis top age comp = John Kruk .

by RollingWave on Feb 2, 2008 5:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

YOUK!!!

Protect your nuts!

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 2, 2008 7:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

benb

he lied to you about remembering you, just to make you feel good about yourself.

by richieabernathy on Jan 31, 2008 4:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

liar = bad makeup

Therefore, he'll never reach his potential.

GG, thank you Science.

by mraver on Jan 31, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

The various systems don't seem to predict much of an improvement for Delmon do they? Seems odd for such a young highly-touted player.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 31, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

I foresee a big jump in his HR numbers this year to around 25. Ave and OB% will remain basically the same

by ScottAZ on Jan 31, 2008 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perspective

The various systems don't seem to predict much of an improvement for Delmon do they? Seems odd for such a young highly-touted player

Maybe not a lot of projection for next year, but let's not forget that he just turned 22 in September. Most guys his age are just reaching AA.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 31, 2008 6:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John

What kind of counting stats were you projecting for Delmon? I'd like to see how you think his power is going to progress this season, and whether that SLG is a lot of doubles or an increase in HR.

Warning Track Power

by WTP on Feb 1, 2008 10:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Delmon's PECOTA

2008 prediction: 294/329/458
Comparables: Tommy Davis, Vladimir Guerrero, Rocco Baldelli, Larry Parrish

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Feb 2, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clubhouse influences

Just out of curiousity, who is the BIG voice in the clubhouse now on this somewhat new team? Who speaks up when something needs to be said, along with providing continuous leadership on/off the field?

I'm hoping Young fits in well with this group and embraces the opportunity here. These guys have the potential to be pretty damn good in a couple of years.

Ted Williams: .406

by bodyiq on Feb 2, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs