Community Prospect #67

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 7:49 AM EST

Brett Anderson takes the last one...

LIST

1. Jay Bruce OF CIN
2. Evan Longoria 3B TB
3. Colby Rasmus OF STL
4. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
5. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
6. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
7. Cameron Maybin OF FLA
8. Homer Bailey RHP CIN
9. David Price LHP TB
10. Andy LaRoche 3B LAD
11. Jacob McGee LHP TB
12. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
13. Travis Snider OF TOR
14. Brandon Wood 3B/SS CAL
15. Matt Wieters C BAL
16. Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS
17. (T) Joey Votto 1B CIN
17. (T) Andrew McCutchen OF PIT
19. Wade Davis RHP TB
20. (T) Chase Headley 3B SD
20. (T) Reid Brignac SS TB
22. Daric Barton 1B OAK
23. Rick Porcello RHP DET
24. Franklin Morales LHP COL
25. Jeff Clement C SEA
26. Matt LaPorta OF/1B MIL
27. Mike Moustakas SS KC
28. Chris Marrero OF WAS
29. Fernando Martinez OF NYM
30. Matt Antonelli 2B SD
31. Desmond Jennings OF TB
32. Carlos Gonzalez OF OAK
33. Jason Heyward OF ATL
34. Fautino de los Santos RHP OAK
35. Jed Lowrie SS BOS
36. Angel Villalona 3B SF
37. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
38. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
39. Carlos Triunfel SS SEA
40. Steven Pearce 1B/OF PIT
41. Jordan Schafer OF ATL
(Kosuke Fukudome OF CHC)
42. Adam Miller RHP CLE
43. Nick Adenhart RHP CAL
44. Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
45. Austin Jackson OF NYY
46. Eric Hurley RHP TEX
47. Jose Tabata OF NYY
48. Geovany Soto C CHC
49. Lars Anderson 1B BOS
50. Chin-Lung Hu SS LA
51. Chris Davis 3B TEX
52. Luke Hochevar RHP KC
53. Jarrod Parker RHP ARI
54. Taylor Teagarden C TEX
55. Manny Parra LHP MIL
56. Deolis Guerra RHP NYM
57. Neil Walker 3B PIT
58. Josh Vitters 3B CHC
59. Ross Detwiler LHP WAS
60. Hank Conger C LAA
61. Elvis Andrus SS TEX
62. Ian Stewart 3B COL
63. Jordan Walden RHP LAA
64. Michael Burgess OF WAS
65. JR Towles C HOU

CANDIDATES:
Brent Lillibridge SS ATL
Beau Mills 1B/3B CLE
Bill Rowell 3B BAL
James McDonald RHP LA
Tim Alderson LHP SFG
Anthony Swarzak RHP MIN
Dexter Fowler OF COL
Jair Jurrjens RHP ATL
Jeremy Jeffress RHP MIL
"Other"

MORE CANDIDATES - PITCHERS
Justin Masterson (7/66), Radhames Liz (4/64), Cole Rohrbough (3/64), Alan Horne (3/64), Carlos Carrasco (3/62), Jaime Garcia (2/66), Hiroki Kuroda (1/59), Jeremy Hellickson (0/59), Will Inman (0/59), Matt Latos (0/66), Max Scherzer (0/49), Jeff Niemann, Troy Patton, Scott Elbert, Dan Cortes, Michael Bowden, Chris Volstad, Matt Harrison, Brad Lincoln, Chuck Lofgren, Collin Balester, Sean Gallagher, Greg Reynolds, Jeff Manship, Donald Veal, Bryan Morris, Nick Hagadone, Brett Cecil, Joe Savery, James Simmons, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Mortensen, Brett Sinkbeil, Chris Mason, Wilmer Font
Aaron Poreda (4/65), Chris Tillman (1/49c), Trevor Cahill, Kasey Kiker, Tony Butler, Michael Main, Omar Poveda, Neftali Feliz, Dellin Betances, Tommy Hanson, Tyler Robertson, Henry Sosa, Brandon Erbe, Kyle Drabek, Jeff Locke, Blake Beavan, Phillippe Aumont, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Latos, Josh Smoker, Chris Withrow, Dan Duffy, Julio Teheran
Jon Meloan, Casey Weathers, Dan Moskos, Chris Perez, Eduardo Morlan, Felipe Paulino del Guidice, Kevin Mulvey, Wade LeBlanc,
MORE CANDIDATES - HITTERS
Tyler Colvin (4/65), Chris Nelson (1/61), Brandon Jones (0/58), Mat Gamel (1/63), Wes Hodges, Todd Frazier, Jordan Brown, Drew Stubbs, Nolan Reimold, Bryan Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Nate Schierholtz, Kellen Kulbacki, Justin Maxwell, Max Ramirez, Kyle Blanks, Josh Rodriguez, Michael Bourn, Tony Thomas Jr, Brandon Hicks, Oscar Tejada
Nick Weglarz, Ryan Kalish, Gorkys Hernandez, Matt Sweeney, Hector Gomez (1/61), Jesus Montero (1/60), Adrian Cardenas, Gerardo Parra, Cedric Hunter, Nick Noonan, Oscar Tejeda, Kevin Ahrens, Matt Dominguez, Devin Mesoraco, Will Middlebrooks, Wendell Fairley, Andrew Lambo, Ben Revere, Neftali Soto, Engel Beltre, Fernando Perez

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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Comments

My personal opinion

I think the three most legitimate choices here are Lillibridge, McDonald and Jurrjens. All three guys still have some upside to spare, yet have performed well in the mid-to-high minors. Jeffress would be a great pick near here (or earlier) if he didn't have the drug problems, but I feel like that hurts him, especially after 2 strikes. I get the sense that people are voting for the other guys on gut feelings. Yeah, they're all guys with tools, but none of them have elite tools, and none of them have performed in the minors (at least over the past year). If you're going to go with a tools pick, then why not go with someone like Gorkys, who at least has tools coming out the wazoo?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 7:52 AM EST 0 recs

I disagree

I think Lillibridge, McDonald, and Jurrjens while close to the majors, have some of the lower ceilings of top 100 prospects.

Lillibridge has only broken a 900 OPS once in his minor league career. That was as a 22 year old in A ball. And I'm not so sure he'll steal as many bases at higher levels. He strikes out a little too much to be a lead off hitter. His greatest strength is that he is a middle infielder.

BA ranks him 6th with Jones, Gorskys Hernandez not on our list before him

McDonald is an intresting case, clearly he has bounced around a lot, In 2007 he was in both A+ an AA ball and while age doesn't matter for him I've never been a fan of stats that a player has accumulated from a split season in different leagues. His K:BB is spectacular, but that is also dependant on the deception of his delivery. If he was in one league maybe we could of seen what could of happen with adjustments. Is command is stellar but his stuff is just above average. I really see him as a 4:5 or setup man. Its only been one year, i'd like to see another.

BA ranks him 7th Elbert, DeWitt, and Withrow, in front of him

I'll talk about Jair Later

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 9:47 AM EST up 0 recs

+1

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 30, 2008 1:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Silly arguement

Who do you have ahead of them?

And if you really want to appeal to an authority,

Kevin Goldstein has Lillibridge ranked 3rd with 4 stars

He doesn't have the upside of some of, say, Rowell, but his floor is a ML player (utility guy) who can steal bases well.

We really like to talk about ceilings on this site, but frankly I think floors are just as important, especially when you're talking about impact on a ML team.

by mraver on Jan 30, 2008 2:17 PM EST up 0 recs

To clarify

I don't think your points are silly, just that you said you disagree that these three are the best guys here without mentioning who you think is better (and perhaps why).

by mraver on Jan 30, 2008 2:18 PM EST up 0 recs

On the other hand

Both BA and BP rated Rowell near the bottom of the heap in terms of Orioles prospects, yet he's getting major support.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 3:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Bottom of heap?

BA's #5 and BP's #6. That's not bottom of heap.

And about right here is a good spot for Rowell. Never have understood why people are down on him. Big upside and held his own as practically the youngest guy in his league. People say he might not stick at 3B, but after watching him play there, I dont buy it.

by rhd on Jan 30, 2008 6:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Considering

that #2 has barely gotten votes, and the next few have gotten no recognition at all, I'm not so sure. They both agree that Rowell is a worse prospect than Nolan Reimold. Has Reimold gotten ANY attention? Has Troy Patton even? Even Liz only has his 5 or 6 supporters....

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 7:49 PM EST up 0 recs

I mean

What has Rowell done for everyone to be so high on him? The scouts don't like him that much (BA + BP), and his stats stunk. He showed little power, little plate discipline, struck out a ton, couldn't hit lefties at all, and made it obvious that he'll need to move across the diamond, probably sooner rather than later. .273/.335/.426 is a good line for Dave Roberts, not for a defensively challenged 3B. By comparison, Gorkys Hernandez (who's a plus defender in CF and has tools coming out his ears) hit .291/.344/.391 in a league that's MUCH tougher on hitters.

I wouldn't have Rowell in my top 150.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 7:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Have you seen him play?

I have. I dont buy that he's moving from 3B. especially to make room for Brandon Snyder who looked like a born DH when I saw him. Rowell's stats were not great but fine for an 18-y/o in a full season league who's still at an early development stage and has loads of upside. Maybe he wont make BA's top 100 this year, altho I think he might sneak onto the back end. I usually trust what BA says, but if he doesnt make it, I think they're wrong.

BTW, I like Gorkys about right here, too. Also, Fowler, who also looked good when I saw him.

by rhd on Jan 30, 2008 8:23 PM EST up 0 recs

No, but

pretty much every report I've read says he has fall-down range, which will only get worse as he fills out. It doesn't matter if his footwork and throwing has improved. If he can't move a step to the left or the right to get a liner, he'll be at absolute best a below-average defensive 3B. I never said anything about Snyder either. I didn't say Rowell will move now. A lot can happen between now and 2010, which is probably the earliest Rowell can make it to the majors.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 31, 2008 8:08 AM EST up 0 recs

Other

Oscar Tejada

then Kasey Kiker
then Jordan Zimmermann...

then Lillibridge

by team name deleted on Jan 30, 2008 9:21 AM EST 0 recs

I like Kiker too

I feel like he's been underrated by the prospect community. 10.5 K/9 (with under 4 K/9), low hit rate, was a top high schooler, 89 - 93 mph fastball with life, hard curve with potential, plus change up, not old for league, never been injured. One red flag is that he's only 5'10", but I don't think it's that big of a deal when you're a lefty who can already throw 93 consistently and who touched 97 in high school. The other red flag is that he has a bit of a hot temper, but as long as he doesn't constantly get ejected (best I know, he was only ejected once last year), I see that as more of a positive than a negative for a pitcher, especially a small one.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 10:48 AM EST up 0 recs

+1

Very underrated

by jparks77 on Jan 30, 2008 11:18 AM EST up 0 recs

underrated

yes, I agree...
I think the fact he is "short" for today's pitcher is the main reason he is not as highly regarded. But if I recall, he was a first rounder in 06, and has shown improvement in his time in pro ball...
I just think he needs to see some love from the community.

by team name deleted on Jan 30, 2008 11:21 AM EST up 0 recs

Other - Chris Nelson

Not necessarily in any particular order, but my next 5 probably includes Nelson, Kasey Kiker, Hellickson, Rohrbough, and Gorkys Hernandez. Also not that I've gone this far, but out of the folks who are left, my next 35 would probably include about 25 pitchers and 10 hitters. Just not a whole lot of positional talent left IMO. A bunch of future DHes who can hit well, toolsy youngsters lacking in performance, and guys with a 4th outfielder type profile.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 30, 2008 10:54 AM EST 0 recs