Distressed National League Fan
I'm an NL fan sick and tired of hearing my league referred to as the JV league, or AAAA league. I think it's shortsighted when people say that X player survived the AL east - of course he can take on the (...wait for it...) "weaker" NL. Maybe there's something to that for pitchers, but it's been trumped up as more than it is. Trust me, the hitters in the NL know when to swing just like the titans of the AL do.
Why is it that smarmy AL fans talk about the winner of their league as the best team in baseball? Is it the recent history of the World Series? Since 2000, five of the eight teams that have won it have been AL teams. So what? Is it the recent record in All-Star games? I don't want to look it up, but we all know the AL has some silly streak of dominance going on. Or the age old argument: the AL has better players?
Some might say the best measure of the quality of each league is the cream. Let's take a look at the best team in each league:
NL - The Mets are probably the majority shareholder of the NL after the Santana trade. They have superstars on the left side of their infield, an all-star in center, a candidate for a bounce-back year at first. The rest of their starting squad features players of varying abilities, but this is a strong unit as a whole thanks to the top and middle of their lineup.
Their rotation is looking very strong with Santana-Pedro-Maine-Perez-El Duque. Whether or not the rotation matches up man for man with the Red Sox is not the issue. The point is that an argument could be made for either.
AL - Have to go with the Red Sox, reigning champs. Their lineup consists of ... do I have to say it? Manny and Papi, Drew, Ellsbury, Youk, Pedroia, Lowell, Varitek, Lugo. The most feared 3-4 hitters in the entire league surrounded by a capable supporting cast. I personally think Lowell has had his last good year and that Varitek is running out of sand, but Drew should be better, and Ellsbury will be good, and Youkilis will be reliable.
On to the rotation - very strong 1-6. There's no point in going into it in any kind of detail, because I'm not trying to debate the Mets' rotation against the Red Sox', I'm just trying to make a point that the debate could be made.
On the whole: these two teams are very similar in overall talent level to me, with the slight edge going to the Red Sox because of recent successes. But on the other hand, how is the Mets' 2007 that much different than the Sox' 2006?
Let's take a look at the next tier. This is where I think the AL gets much of its laudations. While the NL has some very strong teams in the next tier, the AL has several that are just a nose or two stronger than their counterparts.
NL - let's go with Arizona, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Colorado.
Arizona - Owners of perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the game with Webb and Haren. If RJ holds up, they'll have the best 1-2-3. They were a ninety win playoff team last year that figures to get better. Not only that, but they won their ninety in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. No team rolls over in the NL west.
Philadelphia - the Detroit of the NL. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell. That's a lot of firepower for a small stadium.
Chicago - Nice blend of pitching and hitting. The Cleveland of the NL?
Colorado - Reigning National League champs. Blake Street Bombers with pitching and defense.
AL - let's go with Detroit, Cleveland, NYY, and Anaheim
Detroit - Best lineup in the game? I was tempted to choose Detroit as the best team in the AL, but I figured it had to go to Boston until they prove otherwise. Nonetheless, the addition of Cabrera to an already powerful lineup should have the same effect that Santana will have on the Mets' pitching staff. In addition, the Tigers have some very good pitching to back that offense up.
Cleveland - Detroit and Cleveland for the next several years should make the AL central something like the AL East has been.
Yankees - Closer to the Angels than the Indians, I think, but I've been wrong before.
Anaheim - Very deep rotation. Very colorful outfield. The probable leaders of the weakest division in the AL, the only division that challenges the NL Central for that dishonor. Good team, important year. Are they rising or falling?
That top echelon in most peoples' minds separates the AL from the NL. Any of Detroit, Cleveland, the Yankees, or (possibly, but probably not) the Angels, might be able to step into the NL and challenge the Mets for supremacy. However, if any of Arizona, Philly, Chicago, or Colorado joined the American League, though they would be a top-tier team, no one would automatically lump them in to run with "the best".
Beyond that, you have the competitors. Any of these teams may challenge for their division this coming season, and several of them will be in wild card contention late in the year. This is where the National League earns its keep.
LAD, SD, Mil, Atl, Cin, St.L, SF
Vs.
Sea, Tor, Min, TB, Texas, KC
Any of these first five teams in the NL could have a great season and jump into the next tier, whereas in the AL I could see only Seattle or Toronto. Tampa Bay, Texas, and Kansas City are probably two years or more down the line. Last year, these three teams were punching bags.
(For reference, the remaining teams, "the dregs" line up as follows: Hou, Was, Pit, Fla and Chi, Oakland, and Baltimore. Don't get too excited or pissy about placement. This is one man's very unscientific opinion.)
I'm running really (really, really) long here and I don't have anything very convincing to back it up, and I apologize for that, but I don't think there's anything very convincing that supports the fact that the AL is better than the NL, unless you're rabid for overanalyzing all star game victories and interleague play. As for World Series victories, well, the Cards won two years ago, the Chi Sox won three years ago, the Marlins won five years ago, and a very different Diamondbacks team won seven years ago.
There's a lot of rising and falling in baseball, and the standings at the end of this season will undoubtedly be quite surprising. Any team could break loose and any team could falter, and what happens could significantly alter the perception of who is the better league. I just can't stand it when someone starts talking about the "weaker NL" as if "weaker" is part of its name, like it's been that way for a long time now, and it will continue to be that way. It just conveys a myopic view of baseball.
Maybe the American League is as a whole a tad bit in front, but the only place I think that's clear is in the league's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams, admittedly a little bit better-rounded than the NL counterparts. After that, the leagues look fairly well-matched to me, and the argument could be made that the NL is the deeper league.
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38 comments
Comments
I'll assume
When it comes to pitchers, the general idea is they don't improve because the NL is weak, but rather that they get to face a pitcher instead of a DH three times a game. It makes a huge difference.
by PujolsJunkie on Jan 30, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by people saying Johan's numbers*
by PujolsJunkie on Jan 30, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
give me a little credit
by jumanjifan01 on Jan 30, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
obvious
When a starting pitcher goes from the NL to the AL, it rises about one run.
Since the difference between the leagues' average ERA is less than one run, the NL is weaker.
Coupled with the (longer than 3 year) pattern where the AL crushes the NL in interleague games, it's quite apparent that the NL is not as talented as the AL.
by Galt on Jan 30, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not obvious...
So while I agree that the AL clearly has the better lineups, you can't just assert it and cite some numbers without any discussion of alternative explanations.
by mraver on Jan 31, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reason being...
by dlpme77 on Jan 30, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
good call
AL V. NL
- 136-116
- 154-98
- 137-115
by Team Moneyball on Jan 30, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ding Ding Ding!
When one league has a .565 winning percentage over the other league over a course of three seasons (756 games) that pretty much proves the point. If a team were to play a season at that winning percentage they would go 91.5-70.5.
Sorry NL fans, but the AL is just a better league right now.
by bl on Jan 30, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's quite flawed though
AL fans always attribute a pitcher's jump in success going from the AL to the NL due to the AL being a better league but it is because they now play the game it was meant to be played, with the pitcher hitting instead of another offensive weapon in the lineup. Very little of it has to do with the ability of the league.
by was385 on Jan 30, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And
I think it's much less damaging to NL teams to get a DH (it's not like DHing is a special skill...) than it is to AL teams to lose their DH.
by knightgalt on Jan 30, 2008 8:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but
by was385 on Jan 30, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i disagree
Also, if you look at the AL v. NL records for the history of interleague its almost even. (1387 v. 1317 or a .512%). Even if there is an inherent advantage, its never been bigger than it is now, which means to mean that the AL has better teams.
by Team Moneyball on Jan 30, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
partially agree...
Still though, I think it's the NL's inability to put up a significantly better bench dispite the need for it that makes a lot of the difference. a lot of times the AL teams actually have a better bench dispite having less of a need.
by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Response
In the end, I think that the DH rule gives a slight advantage to the home team in interleague games, but it is not responsible for the disparity in winning percentage between the leagues right now. The AL is a better league currently, but that doesn't mean it always will be. These things tend to be cyclical.
by knightgalt on Jan 31, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd suggest lightening up a bit
by RVachon on Jan 30, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It is clearly the weaker league
AAAA is obviously a joke, but in all seriousness the AL is clearly superior right now.
by Fett42 on Jan 30, 2008 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not the point.
If you think the NL is equally as strong AL your nuts. But who cares? Your team plays an AL team 15-18 times and possibly in the WS if they get there.
What matters is that you enjoy the NL brand of baseball better than the AL brand. What makes the NL great is the Division and Wild Card races being so close year to year.
What makes it so great is the strategy that the managers need to use and the implications that those decisions have later in the game. The double switch, the pitch hitters, the defensive replacements. Seeing all 25 players on your team get into a game and having an impact in its outcome.
Thats why the NL will always be a better league even if the talent dips at times!
by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
preference
But there's a flaw in your argument. Strategy is about choice, isn't it? If every NL manager does the double-switch -- and they do -- how is that strategic rather than automatic? Where's the effective strategy that bypasses the double-switch?
As for the rest, it seems a matter of pure preference and therefore not quantifiable. If the NL uses more pinch-hitting, the AL has lineups where the pitcher doesn't get a break at any spot in the order. Think that would affect strategy for him, for his manager, for his pitching coach, for his catcher, for the defense? Bullpen use is dramatically different between the two leagues.
Root for the NL if you like the NL. Root for the AL if you like the AL. That doesn't change the fact that the AL is king right now.
pant, pant, pant
by whichthat on Jan 30, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Automatic Strategy?
I'm not debating that point. As I clearly said the AL do have better teams, but that doesn't make it a better more interesting league.
As far as the strategy goes you are completely incorrect.
I wish I had the figures but double switches are not used everyday. There is a debate whether to let the pitcher hit for himself or pinch hit for him.
After the pinch hitter you have have to decide whether or not to keep that hitter in and replace a starter with a pitcher. But you can't just pick any starter they have to match up in position or you'll end up burning a second player from your bench. But then you might waste your only pinch runner!
There are so many situations and they aren't no brainers. Many times they do effect whether or not a team wins or loses.
An AL manager manages a bullpen. NL managers manage a game.
by Metty5 on Jan 31, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NL sucks compared to AL
by manny59 on Jan 30, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and your A's
(fyi they are my 3rd fav team)
by jrose643 on Jan 30, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The NL IS the JV league...
The NL is simply a BAD league right now. I think you could make a solid argument that either of Toronto or the Twins would win the entire NL last year, and they both finished 3rd in their DIVISIONS in the AL.
And I think even saying the Mets are in the argument as the Sox right now is kind of laughable. The Mets might not be the best team in their division still. The Sox (and I'm no Sox fan) are clearly the best all-around team in the game. Also, as for rotations, it's also not close. The Mets' rotation isn't in the top 5.
by DJSkillz on Jan 30, 2008 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interleague Play
Now, that doesn't explain the disparity, but it is something that should be taken into consideration when looking at interleague play records.
by kschellenger on Jan 30, 2008 9:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also
The Yankee's / Red Sox's payroll drop to the highest NL team clearly isn't just a DH.
by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 10:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good point...
Off the top of my head the top payrolls have to be NYY, BOS, LAA, LAD, CHC, NYM. Three in each league. Overall the leagues are pretty even when it comes to payroll and large/mid/small market teams. Sorry, just a poor excuse.
by bl on Jan 30, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
except.
NYY:$189,639,045
BOS:$143,026,214
NYM:$115,231,663
LAA:$109,251,333
LAD:$108,454,524
CHC:$ 99,670,332
so there's some nutty 70M + difference just between the top 3s of each league. not to meantion looking at the bottom team.
the average DH obviously doesn't go for more than 20M
not to meantion you actually missed. there is another team in the AL that you forgot.
CHW:$108,671,833
oh and
SEA:$106,460,833
AND
DET:$ 95,180,369
where as the next 3 team in the NL if i'm right is..
STL:$90,286,823
PHI:$ 89,428,213
HOU:$ 87,759,000
the drop is obviously not just limited to the top 3s. the next 3s also average 10M diff, that mighhht be closer to a average DH drop I suppose.
by RollingWave on Jan 31, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would also argue...
You have a couple good ones in the NL over the years, like Schuerholz and Jocketty. But the AL has had the very best IMO (other than Schuerholz, who is in the mix) in Billy Beane and Terry Ryan. And a number of other guys really doing a great job right now.
And then, yes, money is a factor. The AL teams have spent more and thus are far superior teams. The NL really is the JV league right now. There was a great recent study that showed that the NL was about as close to the talent of the Japanese league right now as it is to the talent of the AL. And I think that's true.
by DJSkillz on Jan 30, 2008 11:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is a pretty good point.
Who else does the NL have? Kevin Towers and his assistants are pretty awesome, albeit unrecognized. I like Doug Melvin but he's not on the elite level; same goes for Josh Byrnes and Dan O'Dowd. Omar Minaya ain't half bad, but I've heard people complain. Walt Jocketty was better than average but he was so adamant about keeping it old school that he would rather step down than open his mind. I really like Niel Huntington but he's merely a "prospect" at this point. I'm 'meh' on Ned Colletti but he does have a good supporting cast.
I've got an interesting subthread idea: how about we compare how many bad GMs each league has? I'll get to my post on that while you guys are brewing thoughts too.
by elrey34 on Jan 31, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've got four words for you:
Kenny Williams
by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 31, 2008 8:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And I've got 6 for you...
Brian Sabean
Ned Colletti
by DJSkillz on Feb 1, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
anyone know...
It seems to me that if the DH is on the bench, the advantage is mitigated... even if this guy can come off the bench, its not that many AB's... and likely, he replaces a poorer bat and now has to field, which hurts his team as well.
by dbimberg on Jan 31, 2008 10:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly
For the White Sox you'd lose Thome or Kornako. While the Red Sox you just move Oritz to first. I'm not sure that Data would prove much
by Metty5 on Jan 31, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 31, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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