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Distressed National League Fan

I'm an NL fan sick and tired of hearing my league referred to as the JV league, or AAAA league.  I think it's shortsighted when people say that X player survived the AL east - of course he can take on the (...wait for it...) "weaker" NL.  Maybe there's something to that for pitchers, but it's been trumped up as more than it is.  Trust me, the hitters in the NL know when to swing just like the titans of the AL do.

Why is it that smarmy AL fans talk about the winner of their league as the best team in baseball?  Is it the recent history of the World Series?  Since 2000, five of the eight teams that have won it have been AL teams.  So what? Is it the recent record in All-Star games?  I don't want to look it up, but we all know the AL has some silly streak of dominance going on.  Or the age old argument: the AL has better players?

Some might say the best measure of the quality of each league is the cream.  Let's take a look at the best team in each league:

NL - The Mets are probably the majority shareholder of the NL after the Santana trade.  They have superstars on the left side of their infield, an all-star in center, a candidate for a bounce-back year at first.  The rest of their starting squad features players of varying abilities, but this is a strong unit as a whole thanks to the top and middle of their lineup.

Their rotation is looking very strong with Santana-Pedro-Maine-Perez-El Duque.  Whether or not the rotation matches up man for man with the Red Sox is not the issue.  The point is that an argument could be made for either.

AL - Have to go with the Red Sox, reigning champs.  Their lineup consists of ... do I have to say it?  Manny and Papi, Drew, Ellsbury, Youk, Pedroia, Lowell, Varitek, Lugo.  The most feared 3-4 hitters in the entire league surrounded by a capable supporting cast.  I personally think Lowell has had his last good year and that Varitek is running out of sand, but Drew should be better, and Ellsbury will be good, and Youkilis will be reliable.

On to the rotation - very strong 1-6.  There's no point in going into it in any kind of detail, because I'm not trying to debate the Mets' rotation against the Red Sox', I'm just trying to make a point that the debate could be made.

On the whole: these two teams are very similar in overall talent level to me, with the slight edge going to the Red Sox because of recent successes.  But on the other hand, how is the Mets' 2007 that much different than the Sox' 2006?

Let's take a look at the next tier.  This is where I think the AL gets much of its laudations.  While the NL has some very strong teams in the next tier, the AL has several that are just a nose or two stronger than their counterparts.

NL - let's go with Arizona, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Colorado.

Arizona - Owners of perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the game with Webb and Haren.  If RJ holds up, they'll have the best 1-2-3.  They were a ninety win playoff team last year that figures to get better.  Not only that, but they won their ninety in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.  No team rolls over in the NL west.

Philadelphia - the Detroit of the NL.  Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell.  That's a lot of firepower for a small stadium.

Chicago - Nice blend of pitching and hitting.  The Cleveland of the NL?

Colorado - Reigning National League champs.   Blake Street Bombers with pitching and defense.

AL - let's go with Detroit, Cleveland, NYY, and Anaheim

Detroit - Best lineup in the game?  I was tempted to choose Detroit as the best team in the AL, but I figured it had to go to Boston until they prove otherwise.  Nonetheless, the addition of Cabrera to an already powerful lineup should have the same effect that Santana will have on the Mets' pitching staff.  In addition, the Tigers have some very good pitching to back that offense up.

Cleveland - Detroit and Cleveland for the next several years should make the AL central something like the AL East has been.

Yankees - Closer to the Angels than the Indians, I think, but I've been wrong before.

Anaheim - Very deep rotation.  Very colorful outfield.  The probable leaders of the weakest division in the AL, the only division that challenges the NL Central for that dishonor.  Good team, important year.  Are they rising or falling?

That top echelon in most peoples' minds separates the AL from the NL.  Any of Detroit, Cleveland, the Yankees, or (possibly, but probably not) the Angels, might be able to step into the NL and challenge the Mets for supremacy.  However, if any of Arizona, Philly, Chicago, or Colorado joined the American League, though they would be a top-tier team, no one would automatically lump them in to run with "the best".

Beyond that, you have the competitors.  Any of these teams may challenge for their division this coming season, and several of them will be in wild card contention late in the year.  This is where the National League earns its keep.

LAD, SD, Mil, Atl, Cin, St.L, SF

Vs.

Sea, Tor, Min, TB, Texas, KC

Any of these first five teams in the NL could have a great season and jump into the next tier, whereas in the AL I could see only Seattle or Toronto.  Tampa Bay, Texas, and Kansas City are probably two years or more down the line.  Last year, these three teams were punching bags.

(For reference, the remaining teams, "the dregs" line up as follows: Hou, Was, Pit, Fla and Chi, Oakland, and Baltimore.  Don't get too excited or pissy about placement.  This is one man's very unscientific opinion.)

I'm running really (really, really) long here and I don't have anything very convincing to back it up, and I apologize for that, but I don't think there's anything very convincing that supports the fact that the AL is better than the NL, unless you're rabid for overanalyzing all star game victories and interleague play.  As for World Series victories, well, the Cards won two years ago, the Chi Sox won three years ago, the Marlins won five years ago, and a very different Diamondbacks team won seven years ago.

There's a lot of rising and falling in baseball, and the standings at the end of this season will undoubtedly be quite surprising.  Any team could break loose and any team could falter, and what happens could significantly alter the perception of who is the better league.  I just can't stand it when someone starts talking about the "weaker NL" as if "weaker" is part of its name, like it's been that way for a long time now, and it will continue to be that way.  It just conveys a myopic view of baseball.

Maybe the American League is as a whole a tad bit in front, but the only place I think that's clear is in the league's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams, admittedly a little bit better-rounded than the NL counterparts.  After that, the leagues look fairly well-matched to me, and the argument could be made that the NL is the deeper league.

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I'll assume
this was brought on by people Johan's numbers can be even better now?

When it comes to pitchers, the general idea is they don't improve because the NL is weak, but rather that they get to face a pitcher instead of a DH three times a game. It makes a huge difference.

"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Jan 30, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

by people saying Johan's numbers*
wish i could edit posts
"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Jan 30, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and because
the NL is really weak.

by Galt on Jan 30, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

obvious
when a starting pitcher goes from the AL to the NL, his ERA drops about one run.

When a starting pitcher goes from the NL to the AL, it rises about one run.

Since the difference between the leagues' average ERA is less than one run, the NL is weaker.

Coupled with the (longer than 3 year) pattern where the AL crushes the NL in interleague games, it's quite apparent that the NL is not as talented as the AL.

by Galt on Jan 30, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not obvious...
There's also a DH to consider here. Replacing a .750 out% player with a .600 out% make a HUGE difference in a lineup's ability to score runs. Bullpen use is also easier in the AL, since you don't have to replace position players/worry about when relievers bat, etc.

So while I agree that the AL clearly has the better lineups, you can't just assert it and cite some numbers without any discussion of alternative explanations.

by mraver on Jan 31, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reason being...
please give me the interleague records of the past two years? Past three of the 4 World Series? Even All Star Games (yes I know they are not as important but geesh you can't even win one?) I think that is why. Sorry..you got it then bring it. Interleague wins would go a long way.

by dlpme77 on Jan 30, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

good call
I was looking up Inter-league records and here they are:
      AL V. NL
  1. 136-116
  2. 154-98
  3. 137-115
Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Jan 30, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ding Ding Ding!
We have a winner.

When one league has a .565 winning percentage over the other league over a course of three seasons (756 games) that pretty much proves the point. If a team were to play a season at that winning percentage they would go 91.5-70.5.

Sorry NL fans, but the AL is just a better league right now.

by bl on Jan 30, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's quite flawed though
The AL has a serious advantage in interleague and playoff series. They have a paid hitter as their DH.  When they are playing at the AL team, an NL team has to use a bench player who probably provides pathetic offense as far as a starter would go. That is a huge advantage to the AL. And when they are at the NL, its not like having that DH on the bench hurts them in comparison to the NL team, in fact it still helps them because they have a great bench player that can pinch hit. The DH rule obviously favors the AL and that is one of the big reasons these numbers are so skewed. The AL is better but it really isn't by nearly as much as people say.

AL fans always attribute a pitcher's jump in success going from the AL to the NL due to the AL being a better league but it is because they now play the game it was meant to be played, with the pitcher hitting instead of another offensive weapon in the lineup. Very little of it has to do with the ability of the league.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jan 30, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And
half of the games are played in NL parks where the AL teams' DH either doesn't get ABs or is forced to play a position where he is a defensive liability. Furthermore, the AL pitchers are much less accustomed to standing in the box and I suspect have a far lower success rate on sacrifice bunts to move runners. For most AL teams, removing their DH puts a large hole in their lineup. The Indians lose Hafner. The Sox lose Papi, etc.

I think it's much less damaging to NL teams to get a DH (it's not like DHing is a special skill...) than it is to AL teams to lose their DH.

by knightgalt on Jan 30, 2008 8:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but
all losing your dh does is put you on an even level with the NL team. If it is a big bat, they are generally put in at first base, where the defense really isn't going to have much if any of an effect over the couple of games. The NL team has to use a bench player who is probably awful offensively, matched up against a DH who is paid to hit an nothing else. Give me a break. The DH favors the NL team? What a load.
Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jan 30, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i disagree
mainly because there aren't that many teams which have a true DH that is just a total masher. In the AL there is Hafner, Ortiz, Giambi, and Sheffield come to mind, but two of those guys can play a position. So the AL as a whole doesn't have a huge distinct advantage.

Also, if you look at the AL v. NL records for the history of interleague its almost even. (1387 v. 1317 or a .512%). Even if there is an inherent advantage, its never been bigger than it is now, which means to mean that the AL has better teams.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Jan 30, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

partially agree...
A lot of NL teams carry guys that should be a DH anyway. Ryan Howard... the entire Brewer's lineup , most of the Marlins infield... Chris Duncan ...

Still though, I think it's the NL's inability to put up a significantly better bench dispite the need for it that makes a lot of the difference. a lot of times the AL teams actually have a better bench dispite having less of a need.

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 10:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what?
The don't need a better bench than what they have though. It is stupid money.
Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jan 30, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Response
I didn't say the DH favors the NL team. What I said was that when the interleague games are played in NL venues, the overall situation favors the NL who have teams built to deal with the NL rules (Ps who are used to batting and sac bunting, managers accustomed to the late inning switches need to play small ball and get the bats out of their pitchers hands, etc.) whereas the AL teams can make some adjustments, but still are usually taking a decent bat out of their lineup even if it isn't their DH (for instance with CLE, sure Hafner may just shift to 1B, but he becomes a defensive liability and Garko doesn't get an ABs).

In the end, I think that the DH rule gives a slight advantage to the home team in interleague games, but it is not responsible for the disparity in winning percentage between the leagues right now. The AL is a better league currently, but that doesn't mean it always will be.  These things tend to be cyclical.

by knightgalt on Jan 31, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd suggest lightening up a bit
People refer to the NL as the weaker league because it is the weaker league.  I really don't think it's terribly difficult when looking at the rosters that comprise the AL teams and comparing them to those of their NL counterparts to come to that conclusion.  That said, I don't think anyone is serious when they refer to the NL as a AAAA league (and personally I'm not sure I've seen the JV league bit, but it's pretty funny).  The NL certainly has ML quality players and teams.  It's just that on the whole, right now, the AL is superior.  It goes in cycles.  The day will come again when the NL is superior.  But seriously, there's no need to get too worked up about it.  It's all in good fun.
"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jan 30, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It is clearly the weaker league
10 straight non-tie AS wins aside, over the last three years the AL has .565 winning percentage in interleague play (about the % of a 92-win yeam when theoretically they should be equal according to you). There are other stats I am too lazy to look up that are more telling such as the record of sub-.500 AL teams owning over-.500 NL teams, etc.

AAAA is obviously a joke, but in all seriousness the AL is clearly superior right now.

by Fett42 on Jan 30, 2008 7:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not the point.
jumanjifan01 your missing the point. I don't know what team you are a fan of but the point is not about AL vs. NL. Its AL's brand of baseball versus the NL brand.

If you think the NL is equally as strong AL your nuts. But who cares? Your team plays an AL team 15-18 times and possibly in the WS if they get there.

What matters is that you enjoy the NL brand of baseball better than the AL brand. What makes the NL great is the Division and Wild Card races being so close year to year.

What makes it so great is the strategy that the managers need to use and the implications that those decisions have later in the game. The double switch, the pitch hitters, the defensive replacements. Seeing all 25 players on your team get into a game and having an impact in its outcome.

Thats why the NL will always be a better league even if the talent dips at times!

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 7:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

by wibadger on Jan 30, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

preference
As a matter of aesthetics, sure, and there's nothing wrong with that.

But there's a flaw in your argument.  Strategy is about choice, isn't it?  If every NL manager does the double-switch -- and they do -- how is that strategic rather than automatic?  Where's the effective strategy that bypasses the double-switch?

As for the rest, it seems a matter of pure preference and therefore not quantifiable.  If the NL uses more pinch-hitting, the AL has lineups where the pitcher doesn't get a break at any spot in the order.  Think that would affect strategy for him, for his manager, for his pitching coach, for his catcher, for the defense?  Bullpen use is dramatically different between the two leagues.

Root for the NL if you like the NL.  Root for the AL if you like the AL.  That doesn't change the fact that the AL is king right now.

pant, pant, pant

by whichthat on Jan 30, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Automatic Strategy?
That doesn't change the fact that the AL is king right now.

I'm not debating that point. As I clearly said the AL do have better teams, but that doesn't make it a better more interesting league.

As far as the strategy goes you are completely incorrect.

I wish I had the figures but double switches are not used everyday. There is a debate whether to let the pitcher hit for himself or pinch hit for him.

After the pinch hitter you have have to decide whether or not to keep that hitter in and replace a starter with a pitcher. But you can't just pick any starter they have to match up in position or you'll end up burning a second player from your bench. But then you might waste your only pinch runner!

There are so many situations and they aren't no brainers. Many times they do effect whether or not a team wins or loses.

An AL manager manages a bullpen. NL managers manage a game.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 31, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NL sucks compared to AL
AL is vastly more competetive and better to watch
Oakland A's 4 Life

by manny59 on Jan 30, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

and your A's
will be competing with whom this year?

(fyi they are my 3rd fav team)

Curtis Granderson fan

by jrose643 on Jan 30, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The NL IS the JV league...
it's just the way it is in sports right now.  It's kind of odd, but the NFC is that, and the East in the NBA is that.  

The NL is simply a BAD league right now.  I think you could make a solid argument that either of Toronto or the Twins would win the entire NL last year, and they both finished 3rd in their DIVISIONS in the AL.  

And I think even saying the Mets are in the argument as the Sox right now is kind of laughable.  The Mets might not be the best team in their division still.  The Sox (and I'm no Sox fan) are clearly the best all-around team in the game.  Also, as for rotations, it's also not close.  The Mets' rotation isn't in the top 5.  

by DJSkillz on Jan 30, 2008 9:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Interleague Play
One thing to note about interleague play is that AL teams hold a natural advantage when the DH is in play. AL teams build the DH into their roster. NL teams do not. If you look at the 9th position players on NL rosters vs the collective DHs of the AL, the AL is going to be vastly superior. Make the  comparison any way you want, an NL team cannot afford (nor is it logical) to keep an extra good offensive player on their roster.

Now, that doesn't explain the disparity, but it is something that should be taken into consideration when looking at interleague play records.  

www.moundtalk.com Scouting Reports, Prospects and more...

by kschellenger on Jan 30, 2008 9:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Also
The payroll difference...

The Yankee's / Red Sox's payroll drop to the highest NL team clearly isn't just a DH.

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 10:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good point...
I guess every AL team has a larger payroll than every NL team then?

Off the top of my head the top payrolls have to be NYY, BOS, LAA, LAD, CHC, NYM. Three in each league. Overall the leagues are pretty even when it comes to payroll and large/mid/small market teams. Sorry, just a poor excuse.

by bl on Jan 30, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

except.
according to cots 07

NYY:$189,639,045  

BOS:$143,026,214

NYM:$115,231,663

LAA:$109,251,333

LAD:$108,454,524

CHC:$ 99,670,332

so there's some nutty 70M + difference just between the top 3s of each league. not to meantion looking at the bottom team.

the average DH obviously doesn't go for more than 20M

not to meantion you actually missed. there is another team in the AL that you forgot.

CHW:$108,671,833

oh and

SEA:$106,460,833

AND

DET:$ 95,180,369

where as the next 3 team in the NL if i'm right is..

STL:$90,286,823
PHI:$ 89,428,213
HOU:$ 87,759,000

the drop is obviously not just limited to the top 3s. the next 3s also average 10M diff, that mighhht be closer to a average DH drop I suppose.

 

by RollingWave on Jan 31, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would also argue...
that on the whole the GM's in the AL are simply much, much better.

You have a couple good ones in the NL over the years, like Schuerholz and Jocketty.  But the AL has had the very best IMO (other than Schuerholz, who is in the mix) in Billy Beane and Terry Ryan.  And a number of other guys really doing a great job right now.  

And then, yes, money is a factor.  The AL teams have spent more and thus are far superior teams.  The NL really is the JV league right now.  There was a great recent study that showed that the NL was about as close to the talent of the Japanese league right now as it is to the talent of the AL.  And I think that's true.

by DJSkillz on Jan 30, 2008 11:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This is a pretty good point.
Schuerholz is (was) the best GM in the NL that I can think of off the top of my head, and he was in the mix with Beane, Ryan and Epstein, who are the most recognized GMs good at their jobs -- all in the AL. But there are also GMs that are very, very underrated compared to those guys. Mark Shapiro heads the best-run front office in baseball (doesn't necessarily make him the best GM), and Andrew Friedman is probably the most underrated. (I mean, the Rays arguably have the most talent than any team in the Majors right now and are paying pennies on the dollar. But back to the point.) Brian Cashman may have by far the most resources to work with, but he has done everything the Yankees want of him and he disappoints very seldom. Jon Daniels isn't credited enough, although his track record isn't perfect either, but I like what he's doing with the Rangers.

Who else does the NL have? Kevin Towers and his assistants are pretty awesome, albeit unrecognized. I like Doug Melvin but he's not on the elite level; same goes for Josh Byrnes and Dan O'Dowd. Omar Minaya ain't half bad, but I've heard people complain. Walt Jocketty was better than average but he was so adamant about keeping it old school that he would rather step down than open his mind. I really like Niel Huntington but he's merely a "prospect" at this point. I'm 'meh' on Ned Colletti but he does have a good supporting cast.

I've got an interesting subthread idea: how about we compare how many bad GMs each league has? I'll get to my post on that while you guys are brewing thoughts too.

by elrey34 on Jan 31, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And I've got 6 for you...
Jim Bowden
Brian Sabean
Ned Colletti

by DJSkillz on Feb 1, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

anyone know...
what the AL vs NL record is in games where there is no DH?

It seems to me that if the DH is on the bench, the advantage is mitigated... even if this guy can come off the bench, its not that many AB's... and likely, he replaces a poorer bat and now has to field, which hurts his team as well.

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by dbimberg on Jan 31, 2008 10:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not exactly
Because the DH for some teams could end up in the field.

For the White Sox you'd lose Thome or Kornako. While the Red Sox you just move Oritz to first. I'm not sure that Data would prove much

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 31, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
but it'd be tough to show the causality, since those would also incidentally be games in which the NL team was the hometeam and should win a higher percentage of games.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 31, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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