Early Early NL East Talk

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 3:43 PM EST Comment 39 comments

Ok, its the off season so this kind of, or any kind talk shouldn't be discouraged.

I was mulling over some of the NL East Blogs and the Atlanta Journal Constitution's posts were pretty interesting.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/shared-blogs/ajc/sportstalk/entries/2008/01/30/your_thoughts_on_sa ntana_to_me.html

I actually had a bunch of quotes from different blogs but instead of bog down the conversation, I'd figure I'd just talk.

Right now the NL East is heading in the right direction. The Fish could compete in a few years and the Nationals had an extremely underrated off season. Props to the Nationals they could be very exciting soon. But it seems like it will be a three team race.

Offense:
Look at the Phillies for a second. That lineup has few holes at this point. Losing Rowand will hurt but they project to look like this:

C     Carlos Ruiz
1B     Ryan Howard
2B     Chase Utley
3B     Pedro Feliz
SS     Jimmy Rollins
LF     Pat Burrell
CF     Shane Victorino
RF     Geoff Jenkins

Lots of strike outs on this offense but insane power too. The only holes that I see are Ruiz, Feliz, and Jenkins(assuming the Job is his). And the latter two could really prove people wrong, especially in that park. The rest of these guys are studs.

Spotlight: Watch out for Victorino because I think he is one of the best spark plugs in baseball. The man can fly.

Now turn your attention to the second place Mets. They have some young talent and some older talent and like the Phillies not great depth in the lower leagues in case of injury. With the recent trades the Mets look like this:

C     Brian Schneider
1B     Carlos Delgado
2B     Luis Castillo
3B     David Wright
SS     Jose Reyes
LF     Moises Alou
CF     Carlos Beltran
RF     Ryan Church

A few holes here with Schneider and Church coming over from the Nationals. Two potential holes with Castillo and Delgado too. Otherwise this team has a very strong offense. Many people point out to the Phillies scoring 88 more runs then the Mets, however the park factors are significant enough that I'm the differential isn't huge.

Spotlight: Clearly Carlos Delgado needs to step his game up. He has been late on fastballs for the past year and a half while looking lost at the plate more often than not. The Mets offense really depends on him getting his game back.

The last team in this 3 team race is the Braves. There offense is solid and well rounded but I think they have many question marks. Certainly more than the other two. However, they are younger and are probably going to stay healthy.

C     Brian McCann
1B     Mark Teixeira
2B     Kelly Johnson
3B     Chipper Jones
SS     Yunel Escobar
LF     Matt Diaz
CF     Mark Kotsay
RF     Jeff Francoeur

I think McCann and Francoeur will have huge years and of course you can't forget about Jones or Teixeira. But the rest of the lineup I have questions about. I don't see Escobar and Johnson being as productive as they were last year. I'm not just how well Diaz will do outside of his previous platoon jobs. Kotsay might be better than last years Andruw Jones, but thats not saying much and I still think thats questionable.

Spotlight: Francoeur is a had a power outage last season, but this is the year I think he'll put it together. He'll keep the added plate discipline while regaining that power stroke.

Pitching

The 2007 NL East Champs were lucky to steal Brad Lidge away from the Astros because that is going to have HUGE implications. First, can Lidge handle the pressure? I'm not sure, but he has always been my second favorite closer after Joe Nathan and I think he can. More importantly it moves Myers back into the rotation.

SP1     Cole Hamels
SP2     Brett Myers
SP3     Kyle Kendrick
SP4     Jamie Moyer
SP5     Adam Eaton

The front two are studs and I'd rather have Moyer than Kendrick at this point as my 3. But the back end of this rotation isn't scary at all. The upside isn't there and neither is the certainty.

Spotlight: How will Ryan Madson and Tom Gordon come back from their injuries? Now with defined roles will they settle in?

After the greatest collapse in baseball history the Mets knew they needed a front line starter. They got it yesterday in Santana. But the rest of the Rotation is pretty solid in my opinion.

SP1 Johan Santana
SP2     Pedro Martinez
SP3     John Maine
SP4     Oliver Perez
SP5     Orlando Hernandez/Mike Pelfrey

Pedro was great in his return, the only question is how long will he last? John Maine was great in the first half of his first full season and I think he can build on that. Perez and Pelfrey and El Duque are there too and could have some nice upside for the Mets if things work out.

Spotlight: Duaner Sanchez. How will he come back after his taxi cab ride injury last season? The same stud or a shell of his former self?

The Braves have an OLD rotation with many question marks as well. However they have the depth to overcome any injuries that could occur.

SP1     John Smoltz
SP2     Tim Hudson
SP3     Chuck James
SP4     Tom Glavine
SP5     Mike Hampton/Jair Jurrjens

3 of these guys are near or above 40, Hudson is an old 32 IMO and James and Jurrjens don't excite me greatly. I think its a deep rotation, but it happens to be mediocre as well. The only one with great upside is Jurrjens but I think he'll be their 4 pushing Hampton out. Can Soriano handle a full year in the closer role?

Spotlight: Chuck James: Not a huge fan but they'll need him to step his game up if they want to compete for the division.

Who will win? Right now, one must go with the Phillies because they are the Champs. But once the season starts this one could be interesting...

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Injuries are going to play a huge role

If Alou, Delgado & Pedro can remain healthy, I have to give a slight edge to the Mets, but all 3 are very close.

Optimal Hitting-wise, I'd go: Phils, Braves, Mets

Optimal Pitching-wise: Mets, Braves, Phils

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 30, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If those 3

And El Duque all stay healthy all year, I'll eat my hat.

I think the Braves clearly have the best depth of the 3. though all 3 essentially falls into the " looks great on paper, inevitable injuries will play huge roles " division

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the marlins

will take 3rd place in this division... one of the big 3 will struggle, probably with an injury or two and some clubhouse finger-pointing... while the Fish are young and will catch many by surprise... Hermida is on the cusp of stardom, and Hanley is already super. not sure about their bullpen, but the rest of this team is good.

by daveh33 on Jan 30, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Possibly.

But a lot would have to go very wrong and very right.

First, the fish have a so-so rotation with Olsen as their one. The rest is okay, but not great. There is tons of upside, but even more inexperience.

As far as their lineup is concerned they just lost the best pure hitter in the league so I don't see them doing close to as well. Even if Hanley repeats that type of year it is far fetched to think that Maybin, and Hermida will carry this offense better than Miggy has.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More moves to make yet....

I think some of this will change based on a couple of things that could occur in the next few weeks:

Philly is still looking to sign a back of the rotation starter (most likely resigning Lohse). Does that improve upon, say, Eaton?
I'm curious as to whether Mike Hampton is really ready to go again. I kinda suspected that he was pretty much done.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 30, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Most Braves fans...

Most Braves fans aren't counting on him to pitch in a major league game ever again. Especially after pulling his hammy a few months back in a winter league game, he just looks snake bit.

Still, for $15M, if he's able to hold a ball, the Braves have got to at least give him a shot.

by mraver on Jan 30, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hampton

True. It most suck to be throwing away that money. Then again, the Mets are still paying Mo Vaughn and Bobby Bonilla to not play for them.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 30, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lohse

Would possibly represent an upgrade because unfortunately for us Phils fans Eaton is about as bad as you can be. A 1.63 WHIP is ghastly, and lest you think it was an aberration he had a 1.56 the year before (albeit in 65 IP) and 1.44 the year before that in freaking Petco. So almost anything would be an improvement as it would be hard to find much worse. Problem is Lohse WHIPs have mirrored Eaton's and would be hard pressed to find success in our bandbox.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Jan 30, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post!

I basically agree with your assessment of the Phils. Feliz was a huge addition, moreso because of what he replaced than what he brings. If his defense is as good as it was last year, that'll be a major improvement.

I see a lot of people pegging Frenchy for a breakout. I'm not sure I see it, but I'd love for it to happen. :-) I agree that McCann will bounce back and Escobar will come down a bit, but I don't see any reason to project much regression from Johnson. He was streaky last year, posting 1.000+ OPS for a few months, being around .700 for a couple as well, .850 in August and capping it all off with a .550 September. Obviously he's not Chase Utley. But I don't see why he can't post an OPS around .850.

As for Diaz, I see no reason to expect a regression. His BA is right where it's been his entire career, and with Brandon Jones almost a lock to make the roster out of spring training, he'll be in his typical platoon role.

As for the Mets, I see their fortunes tied much more to Jose Reyes than Carlos Delgado. Reyes needs to bounce back in a big way and (like McCann), I think he will. If Reyes plays like 2006, Delgado comes back, and Alou stays even a bit healthier than last year, the Mets could compete with Atlanta and Philly for the top offense in the division.

As for the pitching... It's a crapshoot IMO. The Mets have the best upside, the Braves have the best depth. All three teams have injury concerns. I think it's going to be another very tight race this year.

by mraver on Jan 30, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting phrasing..

First, A Diaz regression isn't a huge deal considering how much of a non-factor(comparatively) to that team he will be batting at the bottom. But a Frenchy rebirth would be huge as far as his impact on that team. Just putting some perspective on it.

As for the Mets, I didn't even mention Jose because I think he will have a better year than 2006. I truly believe he will have a similar year like Frenchy. A down year in power but an up year in plate discipline in 2007. But look for him to combine the too in his 2008 approach.

The interesting phrasing is here. "the Mets could compete with Atlanta and Philly for the top offense in the division."

I don't see in any way shape or form Atlanta is better than the Mets. I really do try and take an unbiased approach to my posts although I'm sure some does show. I don't think ATL's hitting is better as someone said above. Kotsay is a black hole, and you are relying on a very young middle infield.

If you want to say something about Alou's injuries the same could be said for Chipper. And chipper is a much bigger part of that team.

I don't see Tex being any more productive than Wright. Slightly different players yes, but I'd take Wright everyday.

Thats not even bringing Beltran and Reyes into the discussion when comparing the teams, and IF its a huge if Delgado is even close to him old self the Mets offense is better than the Braves imo.

Looking at the RS-RA for the two teams from last year you'll see its pretty close in Atlanta's favor. However you've lost Andruw Jones who is still better than Kotsay. You also can't expect him to repeat that type of year. Chipper had a monster year, but has only played 134/110/109 games the last 3 years. I think the ATL offense will be worse this year than last(even if McCann and Frenchy step up).

So for me, I think the Braves are a notch below the Phillies and Mets. Only slightly, but below.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm I disagree, allegiances aside,

at least if we use last year as a reference point

You look at the Braves who had huge years last year (Chipper, Renteria, Teixeira). Two of them played less than 2/3 of season for the Braves (chipper injuries, Teixeira trade) so regression in their rates could easily disguise the fact that production from those positions could increase. Renteria is a real concern, as he was better than Escobar last year and I don't see Escobar being as good as he was last year, but I agree with the other poster that there is no reason to be considered about KJ.

Kotsay, even if you assume a blackhole, replaces a blackhole and will be at the end of the lineup (if sanity prevails). McCann and Fracoeur as a tandem should outproduce their combined output last year. The bench and replacement possibilities are also stronger than last year.

I just don't see the Braves being a significantly different (better or worse) offense than last year, so I can't see how you can elevate the mets past them. I'm not sold on our pitching, so I can see them rating 3rd overall, just not based on offense.

by abravesfan on Jan 30, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt that

Rentaria would be anywhere near as good as last year too ;) just check out his career lines and trends.

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

I figure it's tough to be truly impartial, and the only time I'd say taking the Mets' offense over the Braves' is crazy is when I'm talking smack. :-)

But going on the projections I've seen (Marcel and David Pinto's lineup production thingy and ZiPS), the Braves seem to have at least a small advantage.

And you say Chipper had a big year last year. Well, he's actually had a HUGE last three years, injuries aside. His OPS+ in '05, '06, '07: 151, 154, 166. He clearly the best hitter on either team, but it's tough to predict he'll play more than 130 games.

Aside from that, if McCann and Frenchy bounce back and Tex is around for a full year, I don't see how this offense isn't a lot better than last years', even with Andruw and Renteria gone. FWIW, just not having Andruw hitting .220 behind Chipper's .400+ OBP is going to net as a couple extra runs. Really, the biggest improvement is Mark Teixeira taking over for the black hole that was Craig Wilson and Scott Thorman. (That upgrade is almost as big as Glavine from Cormier/Redman/Carlyle/whoever else we had in the 4/5 hole last year. But we're talking offense!)

But I guess it probably is closer than I made it sound in my earlier post. And I do think the Mets are a bit better defensively.

by mraver on Jan 30, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup analysis tool

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024588.php

Braves:

* Best: 5.37 runs per game
* Given: 5.18 runs per game
* Worst: 4.77 runs per game

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024600.php

Mets:

* Best: 5.19 runs per game
* Given: 4.98 runs per game
* Worst: 4.62 runs per game

I think you are underrating Escobar and Johnson. Johnson has always been a stud, and Escobar basically did what you'd expect given his track record.

by aCone419 on Jan 30, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure about Escobar

but the question on Johnson was essentially health and wether he could play the infield. not his bat.

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From the OP

I don't see Escobar and Johnson being as productive as they were last year.

This is what I was responding to.

by aCone419 on Jan 31, 2008 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure you can say that about Escobar

His minor league track record is really rather spotty. He never had a great ARL, and his numbers certainly weren't that impressive. In fact, I'm pretty sure his major league line is was better than anything he'd done in the minors.

Still, I didn't find that too outrageous since the Braves had really seemed to like him from an organizational standpoint ("great instincts" is something I heard near-constantly), and coming over from Cuba at like age 22, last year was only his 3rd year in professional ball. (Cuba doesn't count, right?)

by mraver on Jan 31, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

"I'm pretty sure his major league line is was better than anything he'd done in the minors."

Well he lead the AFL with a .407 AVG and was hitting .333 before he was called up to ATL.

by Jay212033 on Jan 31, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

upgrade over Jenkins

it's a long shot, but Crisp to the Phillies and move Victorino back to RF would clearly be an upgrade

by Galt on Jan 30, 2008 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't see that...

I think if they change up their CF it will be to put Michael Bourn in the line-up. He was stealing a lot of ABs from Rowand and Pat the Bat last season, and did pretty well if I remember correctly.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 30, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bourn

is on the Astros..

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 30, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crap...

Good call. I just woke up. Not fully awake yet. Thanks for catching that.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 30, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

O'rily?

Career OPS+ and 07 OPS+

Jenkin: 116/101

Crisp: 94/83

Crisp is a great glove but that's quiet a bit of room to make up. not to meantion Jenkin's bat probably plays out better in the park too.

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

Crisp is that much better than Jenkins. You are also ignoring speed on the basepaths.

While Jenkins declines, Crisp is still young, and has been recovering from hand injuries and other maladies.

Jenkins is obviously a better pure hitter, but Crisp throttles him in defense and speed.

by Galt on Jan 31, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure

but would it be worth to trade what's left of a already craptistic farm for?

by RollingWave on Jan 31, 2008 5:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

braves lineup

anyone who thinks that ATL lineup is better than either the mets or the phillies (like some have suggested) is out of their damn mind...

by robcast23 on Jan 30, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hm...

For some reason, I don't feel you are the most objective source on this point.

by aCone419 on Jan 30, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say the Braves...

look the strongest just because of the depth they have in the rotation and their bullpen.

The Mets and Phillies will be close, and I'd say either one passing the Braves will hinge on:

For the Mets, a healthy, bounceback season from Pedro.
For the Phillies, consistent decent starts from their 3/4/5 in the rotation.

I don't see either of those as all that likely, so I think the Braves have the slight edge right now.

by DJSkillz on Jan 30, 2008 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed

The Mets have the most health risk guys . they're falling too much for the best lineup illusion. several key guys can't be counted on for much more than half a season. ( Pedro / Duque / Alou )and the potential replacements are iffy at best.

The Phillies have very little if any depth also. on the other hand they've been able to pull a lot of surprises outta a supposed bare farm (see Kyle Kendrick ) still though it's going to bite them sometime (not being able to get anything worth a damn for Bobby Abreu is really biting them big time .... even a Steve White would be helpful at this point) their lineup is also much more likely to hold up and much less suspect to significant drop offs.

It's going to be a wild one, I had Mets at 3rd before the trade, right now i think they might edge out the rest but it's going to be closer than expected (though maybe not the actual outcome as the domino effect could trigger a bigger game difference..)

by RollingWave on Jan 30, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For the Phils

I think the bigger concern is the health of Hamels and Myers. Both have to be considered injury risks after going down for significant time in 07. If they can each give us 33-34 starts I think our offense can pick up the slack for the 3-4-5 (Well maybe not 5 if it's Eaton, but I digress). A healthy Hamels and Myers can give the bullpen the rest its gonna need for the other 3 starters that last 5 innings an outing, but if either one goes down for a significant period of time the Phightins will probably be dead.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Jan 31, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Post Line Ups

I'm curious to see that Marlins, Nats, Braves and Phillies fans see their line ups and rotations to be.

I see the Mets with this:

SS- Reyes
2B- Casitllo
CF- Beltran
3B- Wright
1B- Delgado
LF- Alou
RF- Church
C - Castro/Schnider

SP- Santana
SP- Pedro
SP- Maine
SP- Perez
SP- El Duque/Pelfrey

One of the misconceptions is that the Mets are relying on Duque. He is there 5 guy. I'm fairly certain the Mets can get 250 IP from him and Pelfrey combine if they need it.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 31, 2008 10:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

phillies

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Jenkins/Werth
Ruiz
Feliz/Dobbs

Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Kendrick
(Eaton/Blackley/Someone.If Lohse is resigned, Kendrick)

Lidge
Gordon/Romero
Madson
(3 spots to be determined in the spring)

by phuturephillies on Jan 31, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eaton

Here's something I just thought of: if you resign Lohse, which I'm beginning to think is more and more likely, what do you do with Eaton? Is he long relief materal? Or do you just save him for when the Mets come into town (I still don't understand how the Mets just can't hit the dude)?

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 31, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably

Keep him in the bullpen as insurance for one of the guys getting hurt (Hamels/Myers) or sucking (Moyer/Kendrick). There's a decent chance he'd end up makin a number of starts even if we signed Lohse.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Jan 31, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Los Bravos

2B-Kelly Johnson
SS-Yunel Escobar
3B-Chipper Jones
1B-Mark Teixeira
C-Brian McCann
RF-Jeff Francoeur
LF-Matt Diaz/Brandon Jones
CF-Mark Kotsay
Pitcher

SP-John Smoltz
SP-Tom Glavine
SP-Tim Hudson
SP-Chuck James
SP-Jair Jurrjens
CL-Rafael Soriano

I like this team a lot. The division will obviously come down to how these teams play head to head vs one another, and I have to say, anytime the Phillies have to deal with Johan and Oliver in a series, it'll be a nightmare for them. Very lefty heavy lineup.

"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Jan 31, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Church, Diaz

Ryan Church had an .813 OPS last year, compared to .790 for Jenkins and .782 for Francoeur, playing his home games in the least friendly park. His lefty splits aren't ideal, and I still don't like the Milledge deal, but he's better than most people seem to think (Mets fans included).

Why do the Braves insist on platooning Matt Diaz? I've never understood that one.

by smg58 on Jan 31, 2008 10:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Diaz

I can only assume he showed a heavy platoon split in the minors. Other than that, I have no idea. He's a career .310 hitter against righties in 368 at bats now.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 31, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mets

This division is definitely going to the Mets.

They've already got a huge leg up on the competition. It's almost like they're already into mid-September, 20 games over .500, with a nice lead on the Phils and the Braves. They're just gonna coast on into the playoffs from here.

by Yakker on Feb 1, 2008 2:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs