Revised Twins Top 10

by John Sickels on Jan 30, 2008 12:58 PM EST in News

New Twins Top 10

Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B
Glen Perkins, LHP, Grade B-
Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-
Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade B-
Trevor Plouffe, SS, Grade B-

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while i wouldn't

say it is a very top-heavy top 10 it certainly is deep.

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on Jan 30, 2008 2:49 PM EST reply actions

I think you severely underrate him. Something tends to get lost in his overall minor league numbers, which are mediocre, and because he was forced in major league duty because of injuries. That something is that going back to July 2006, Gomez has hit .319/.380/.473 (24 BB, 69 K) in his last 357 minor league ABs. Will that continue? I don't know. But I don't see anyone talking about the fact that for over half a season, Gomez has been walking more and hitting for more average and power than he ever has before. This despite skipping Hi-A and playing in AA and AAA well before anyone thought he was ready for those levels. Maybe it's just me, but I think that's a significant development.

Was he overmatched in the big leagues? Absolutely. But everyone knows he shouldn't have been there. He was called up because almost every outfielder on the 40-man got hurt simultaneously. He probably shouldn't have even been in AAA. And even though he was overmatched and his plate discipline isn't where it needs to be, at least he showed the ability to put the bat on the ball (27 strikeouts in 125 ABs) in the majors.

Just my opinion, but I think he's by far the best prospect in the Twins system now. I'd expect him to struggle for the next 2-3 years if they start him in the majors right out of the gate, but eventually he's going to be a very good player.

by jeck on Jan 30, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions

I try to keep telling myself

That the difference between Gomez and Ellsbury are really the fact that Ellsbury's floor is higher and ceiling is lower. I need to keep telling myself this so I don't fly into a fit of rage

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 30, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with Jeck

Gomez for me is #1 in this system.

I thought Gomez was the best prospect in the Mets system and I think he's the best prospect in this system. Fernando Martinez has a higher ceiling as a pure hitter, but Gomez will be more valuable overall due to his defense and base running. With CF already covered, and Reyes in the lineup, Martinez was much more of a future need for the Mets.

Back in mid 2006 when I started hearing that the Mets scouts maybe liked him better than Milledge I was skeptical. The improvement he showed in 2006 and 2007 (when healthy) changed my mind. Too many are relying on his numbers in the lower minors; he's improved rapidly while advancing over the last couple of years.

I mostly agree with this assessment of Mulvey, but I still like Gomez much better. Guerra is close, but I guess I need to first see that that plus curve BA talked about is for real, and see that he can stay healthy and produce some numbers.

by acerimusdux on Jan 30, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't say #1

but I would say #3 would be about right. It just seems lately that is a guy around Gomez's age stays in the minors and hits well, he would be a top 25 prospect. However he gets rushed, gets in above his head, breaks his hamate bone and now of all of a sudden people sour on him. Whatever happened to learning in the show? I did not see anything that would make me sour cept he was overmatched, which most 21 year olds are in their first taste of major league experience.

Should we sour on Bailey,Lincecum, Gallardo, Adam Jones and others also for their lack of success in the majors last year?

by dlpme77 on Jan 30, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions

Lincecum & Gallardo...

How did they struggle last season? Sure they did not dominate with every pitch they threw in every game, but no player does that. Lincecum went 7-5 with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.28. He had more than 9 strikeouts per 9 innings and only gave up 12 HRs in almost 150 IP.

Gallardo went 9-5 with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.27. HE had good K, BB, and HR suppression numbers. Where's the struggle?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 30, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

both pitchers struggled mightily

up until they got their feet wet late in the season and pitched better. Gallardo's ERA in late August was 4.60+, Lincecum in July if I remember right is close or even over 5. They got chances to adjust to the league and thus got better, all I am writing is to allow Gomez his chance too. He did not get much of a chance at one after his initial struggles last year

by dlpme77 on Jan 30, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

Gallardo struggled?!?!?!

Gallardo's ERA in late August was 4.66 because of 1 game against Colorado where he gave up 11 earned runs in 2.2 innings. In his first 10 starts, his ERA was 2.55. I hardly call that struggling. While he finished with a 3.67 ERA, other than that 1 bad start against Colorado, his ERA for the rest of the year was 2.85. His monthly ERA's were: 2.79, 2.67, 7.55 and 1.36. In 17 starts, he had 13 games where he gave up 3 runs or less. He struggled in 3 starts in August, other than that he was solid throughout.

by Looneyt0on on Jan 31, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions

not done yet

While I certainly agree that the Mets didn't make the deal in order to not sign Santanna to a long term contract it isn't quite a "done deal" yet.

by BERSMR on Jan 30, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply actions

Underrated prospects

I think the most underrated prospects are those that were forced to play in the majors before they were ready, and struggled as a result.

I argued all last year about how underrated Garza was. The argument was, if he had stayed at AAA all year in 2006, he would have been right up there with Hughes to start last year. Instead, he dropped into the low teens in a lot of prospect lists. I think Garza will have a breakout year this year and could put up Hughes-like numbers.

I think Gomez is this year's Garza. If he had stayed at AAA all last year, he would have been on par with Martinez--more speed, more defensive ability, less power and raw hitting tools. I would rate him number 2 behind Guerra, and it would be close. I also would rate Mulvey ahead of Robertson.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 30, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions

Felix Pie

Is this year's poster boy for this, I believe. If he'd just stayed in AAA, we'd be falling all over his .950 OPS as a 22 yr-old.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 31, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

Gomez in June

.299 .351 .403 5/15 BB/K in 67 AB's. That's Carl Crawford like.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 30, 2008 9:05 PM EST reply actions

Benson and Ramos

Where are they? Baseball America had them at 2 and 3 on the Twins list before the trade. I can see leaving Benson out because he has struggled as a professional (striking out once in every 3.2 ABs), but I can't see why Ramos is left out. The kid will was 19 most of last year playing in A ball, had very solid offensive numbers (783 OPS, and 26 extra base hits in only 292 ABs). By all accounts his defense is solid and he can throw.

by GoBirds01 on Jan 31, 2008 3:58 AM EST reply actions

From the original top 20 list

"benson
I don't believe much in Benson at this point. He's toolsy but no refinement.

by John Sickels on Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 09:38:30 AM CDT"

by cooper7d7 on Jan 31, 2008 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

BA's list was crap

Blackburn
Benson
Ramos

ahead of all the guys listed. If that's not an indictment I don't know what is. I am surprised they didn't throw Matt Moses and Denard Span at #4 & #5

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 31, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

I thought so too...

...until I read Seth's Q&A with John Manual. He ave really good reasons for his ranking. The main reason is, the Twins don't have very many good, high ceiling prospects (or they didn't before the trade). And he really believes Blackburn turned a corner last year to go from a middling prospect to a high-ceiling guy. I urge you to read the Q&A. And I'm not entirely convinced. But he's not crazy.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 31, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

-1

Your post is an indictment on you. So instead of making blanket statements out of thin air, why don't you give us some good reasons why you think BA's list is bad? Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Feb 1, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions