Hello jfish26101,

If the White Sox don't factor into the playoffs again within the next 1-2 seasons, I suspect Ozzie won't be there for the length of Swisher's contract (5 years, I think?)

I think Ozzie signed a contract extension just this past season, but that's still not a guarantee he'll remain there for the length of it, especially if the White Sox aren't a factor for the postseason in 2008.

Regarding the Swisher trade, I think it was a high price to pay for a team that had a thin farm system to begin with and will need 8-9 out of 10 things to go right for this team to make the postseason, let alone win a WS.  The Indians and Tigers are arguably still a few notches ahead of them, and the Twins and Royals are arguably on even or close to even par with the White Sox, even after adding Swisher, Quentin and Linebrink.  

The White Sox's bullpen has only seen limited improvement, and that's assuming that Scott Linebrink will bounce back from an inconsistent 2007.  As for the starting staff, there's question marks there as well.  

Therefore, I think the White Sox's gamble is a high one - with their razor-thin farm system, they're going to need to win within the next 1-2 seasons for this gamble to pay off.  Otherwise, they're looking at having to restock their whole organization plus try to find quality replacements for guys like Thome and Dye (unless he can bounce back and put up high numbers for another 3-4 seasons, and with his injury history and being 37-38 at that time, I doubt it,) the White Sox could be looking at a long rebuild (3-5 years at least.)  

Only time will tell if this gamble will pay off, but I'd be very skeptical of this move, being that the White Sox don't seem that close to competing for a WS title (they're arguably further away than they were after the 2004 season when Williams acquired Podsednik and others; the White Sox had won 80+ games in both 2003 and 2004, and at that time, only the Twins were a sure bet to contend for the division, whereas I think the Indians and Tigers are both solid to sure bets to contend, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Twins or Royals to be in the hunt for most of the season either, so the competition of the division is much greater now than when the White Sox made their bid for the 2005 season.)

It could pay off for them, but I think the chances are greater that this move could backfire on them in the long-term and the White Sox could face a much longer rebuild because of it - at least 3-5 years if everything works out right, and 6+ years if it doesn't.  

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

Take care and have a great day!

Sign mediocre SS to an extension (Uribe)
Trade your #2/#3 SP for a better shortstop (Garland for Cabrera)
Make shrewd trade for young OF (Quentin)
Trade away future to make sure young outfielder doesn't get to play (Swisher for "the farm")

You know, I think that there's a lot to be said about the way that the Twins and Blue Jays are trying to compete with the behemoths in their respective divisions.  You just can't get enough starting pitching.  Maybe if that's where you put your chips you might have something.  But, Kenny Williams hasn't really improved this team at all for 2008 at the expense of 2009 and beyond.  

This trade isn't Kazmir for "the forgotten Zambrano" bad, but it might be as bad as Pierzynski for "the farm" bad. In the sense that at least you can make a slight case that it will make the team better in the short term.

The guy that said Santos alone is worth Swisher is out of his mind and doesn't grasp the concept of player value, and actual established players vs. a kid who's mowed down a bunch of guys that will likely never see Double-A. I will reiterate, I think Santos has the potential to be very very good, but Swisher is pretty much there already. Ken Williams in general is a tool, but in this case, I get the reasoning.

Sure he's got a big contract, but it's not like the Giants aren't willing to spend money in questionable ways (Zito, Rowand, Roberts, plus the earlier mentioned Morris/Benitez etc).  Might be able to snag him for Hennesey (who could close when Street gets traded or start when Blanton goes) and a guy like EME, (who clearly needs a change of scenery and looks to be a future DH anyway) and maybe some kid who's in A ball with some good numbers.  

I'm not exactly a GM though...

I've got an odd taste in my mouth on this one.  The Giants are my team and all, but it's no fun when both Bay Area teams suck, and it seems like it's gonna be that way for a while.  Looking at their roster, I understand that Swisher was the only position player that Beane might have been able to get some value for.  Chavez, Kotsay & Crosby have their issues, Ellis isn't worth much.  So I get it from that point.  

But for the White Sox?  Their Depth Chart on the team website has Swisher as their starting CF.  His range isn't great out there, and I have flashbacks of Marvin Benard realizing that the ball is about to hit off the wall at Pac Bell while he's already taken 4 steps in.  But, he's a hard nosed kid who plays like Aaron Rowand and I think the fans will enjoy watching him play.  

Anybody got some complicated math that shows how many +/- runs or wins Swisher's D is in center?